EUR / CHF LONG - Potential trend changeAfter we have been in a downtrend in the EUR/CHF pair for quite some time, I expect a potential trend change.
- the existing rally in the DXY could come to an end in the near future, which would ease the pressure on the EUR.
I provide the idea with the consideration of rules of "SUPPLY&DEMAND" theory, which focuses on market influence of banks.
The market moves when banks open positions:
- in our case it is a LONG position - of banks / large investors.
- by buying, retail investors were forced to liquidate their SHORT positions = "positions were bought" = "buying cascade".
The banks need more than one run-up to fill their position "100%" due to their position size.
- the next run-up could be into the 0.88 FIBO in my opinion, so that the banks get a similar purchase price. (Level combined with DEMAND.)
- the retail investors will not expect a trend reversal and will open more SHORT positions, allowing the banks to get the liquidity they need.
If the SL level (stop loss) I set is broken, we can expect a further sell-off. (Should it not be a fake-out).
- There are on the time levels 1-4h large "DEMAND" zones at entry, which should bring about a reaction.
- The banks are not interested in the price falling below their EC, so they will defend this level.
If you disagree, feel free to let me know - I am still in the learning process.
Thank you and happy trading!
