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$BTC - Last Short before Pivot to Bulishness: Near $15,825 *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is regarding what price action will do - 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines,etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) Halfway points in fair value gaps, order blocks, Breakers, are always a price to aim for. Support and resistance onnly exist to protect profits, as soon as an institution wants more, they'll all use the same Options strategy amd that's then Support and resistance is broken. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* Bitcoin - It dropped pretty hard after entering a 4 hour fair value gap. This is called an institutional order flow entry drill (IOFED). It drops down to "Support" To where retailers would probably start buying. However, If you haven't done a monthly time dframe analysis on this chart, you will be lost. There is a monthly fair value gap below current market price. After the current price hit support and came back up it then hit a bearish order block followed by another (IOFED) And this is where I believe the price will definitely take a dive as most retail positions are buying. Here's the chart depicting such safe support and retail buying in one area Options on the Bitcoin micro, for an institution to protect their asset would buy a put and buy a call. Therefor if it reaches the put strike price they can excericise the right to buy at that price and they want it lower so they can buy at a discount. So institutions know what retail is doing there for they can sell their assets and short the future/option to hedge against the sell. to get the price to start dropping. Once retail sees that it is dropping further than they want, then they eill start selling with Institutions pushing it down further. Institutions usually knmow the gap theory and will end their option/future at the midway of the monthly fair value gap and start buying up again at an enormous amount because this time it will be in the $15k range. This is about an 80% pullback from the previous low, which is exactly how the chart from 2017/2018 acted. So this should be the last hurrah of a drop. It can fill up the entire Fair value gap below but it doesn't have to. We'll just have to wait and see. Heres a chart of the monthly and where that fair value gap is. That gold line is the imbalance that price wants to fill. 2017 80% pullback VS 2022 80% Pullback 1. 2017/18 2. 2022 At first you were probabbly scratching your head or laughing at my idea. But go back and look through my last 5-6 ideas. I've pretty much been spot on the more I am involved in studying smart money. At least getting near an entry zone and hitting a take 1 profit. Thats All I need daily and I can do this for a living. What do you think? Is $16k ish too low? or do you think lower? Why? I think we're nearing the end of the pullback journey. based on history and Smart Money Technical Analaysis. Also the Commitment of traders report has the institutions adding shorts to their positions. See barchart.com chart, so if the institutions believe it's still shorting, why wouldn't we? See below Barchart CoT. It's the indicator at the bottom of the chart, and the red line represents Institutional Positions. As you can see it's lowering which means it's adding more net shorts. www.barchart.com So good luck and happy trading. COINBASE:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by BodiesXWix
14
$GBPUSD - Sell Side Liquidity at -1 Standard Dev. *SMT*\*SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* Asian Session Lesson - Doesn't always happen but I believe the way it is forming it will. During the Asian Session the high of that session did break a high from last asian session. If you box in the asian session and draw out the deviations, (1x, 1.5x, 2x, etc. you might find some confluences. Also take note of the opening price at midnight (1.14320). If you notice the rere are equal lows below the current price. Which is where the liquidity lies, where retail traders place their buy limits and sell stops. Usuaully when you see this after an asian session the price will rise during the London session to get you to believe that it's going to continue the trend. However, what smart Money usually does, is they will find a point that may bne higher than the high but usually at a bearish order block near the high or deviation. This is where the Judas swing comes into play. And this will have most retail traders buying into that high. Could drop a little at first ti get even with the current even lows or drop just a little below them. The rise up during London Session, above NY Opening price, That's when you expect price to hit the bearish order block somewhere and start to drop on the other side of the price of hte new york open. In my educated smart money guess, it would het just above the current high and then start plummeting as soon as London is about to slow down 4 am ish. 6 am you see it pixk back up and move up into a breaker or a bearish order block it formed , and fall harderpast the equal lows probably to the -1.5x deviation of the Asion Session, Aroun 1.13200 Here's my two guesses on one chart. Let's see if that's wut Smart Money Wants to do. If it even wants to do that at all. I could be wrong and it just go straight up through the liquidity above. But the equal lows have me against that. Price 1 Attacks Liquidity and 2 Moves towards imbalances I had to add another chart because I have people that follow me that say my numbers are too small so I made one that a=had big numbers for them and it was more focused on the area. I'll update as it goes on when I can. It already looks like price is swinging up though There's a smart Money Lesson for the day Good Luck and Happy Tradin g Bodies X Wix OANDA:GBPUSD
Short
by BodiesXWix
EUR/USD 1H BREAKER BLOCK TRADE IDEAGreetings traders, I will outline the short I am currently eyeing on EUR/USD. If you pay attention to market structure it should be clear to you that EUR/USD is in a long-term downtrend and therefore higher probability trades will be found shorting this pair - the trend is your friend as they say. If you look at your 4H chart you will see the area of resistance which forced EUR/USD lower this week, this being the 4H bearish order block. Moving onto the 1H chart we see that the market stop hunted the highs at June 22nd, rejecting at the close of the 4H bearish order block (4H -OB), then broke market structure to the downside as indicated by the grey horizontal arrow. Once this price action occurs, the bearish candle before the stop hunt is validated as a bearish breaker block (represented in the chart by the red rectangle and labelled as 1H -BB) and all one would need to do is wait patiently until price returns to the breaker to have a high probability bearish trade. That my friends is exactly what I aim to do - my entry lies a few pipettes below the close of the 1H -BB and my stop loss lies above the high of the breaker block. My targets are at the sellside liquidity pools below the respective lows of June 23rd but I will not marry this idea. Depending on how the market behaves I will take partials or close the trade entirely. Remember traders, anything can happen in the market, the astute trader acknowledges this and seeks to manage risks while waiting patiently on his preferred setups. This is what is needed in order to thrive long-term in this game. Hopefully the market reaches our entry point, if it doesn't, unlucky, we move. If the trade loses, unlucky, we move, but one thing is for certain, we move. May the markets be with you.
Short
by FEDquant
$BTC - Run May Have Been Short Lived - FVG's Below To FilL *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. TLDR; Entry: 32,100 Stop Loss: 33,080 Take Profit: 28,000 After placing a Fib on the Current Wave, It became clear that we may be headed lower.... again. My Mentorship taught me to think of weekly profiles and how weekly candles form. The rush up just seemed like a wick for the week. Then I pulled the fib and noticed that the Discount price was at the exact line for the large Fair Value Gap (Imbalance) below. Additionally, I went to Barchart.com and looked at the Commitment of Traders report to find that Commercial traderds have reported additional net shorts than previously recorded. That was my first tip that Bitc could be going down as of Yesterday. I still Have my Analysis that BTC will get to 21,400. But for now, let's take baby steps and look to se if 28,000 first.
CME:BTC1!Short
by BodiesXWix
5
$ZEC - Retracing to Bullish OB Then Attack Liquidity Above *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. TLDR; Entry: 92.3-92.5 Stop Loss: (88.5-89.2 Depending on Broker and how much your willing to give up below the Bullish Order Block) Take Profit 1: 96.3-96.4 20-25% of profit removed here (Move SL to 90) Take Profit 2: 97.4-97.6 (Bulk of the trade off here up to 85%-98% of the trade, move stop into break even) Take Profit 3: 99.5-99.6 (127% Extension meets the Fair Value Gap Above the equal highs/Liquidity Line On the Hourly it appears that after price had broker the structure of the lower dealing range, it retraced back down to the breaker of that range and continued up until it hit equal highs with the price before th major drop off. These equal high are creating artificial Liquidity meaning that most traders who see the equal highs automatically think "Resistance" It may be met with some resistance but smart money or Institutional traders know that there are retail traders that have their shorts sitting there with, most likely, a short stop loss.... Or a buy stop with a short stop loss. I see this everytime, The price will come trigger the buy stop people and to take out the SL of the people Shorting with a limit, then it falls more to take the buy stop traders SL out, then continue up to find an imbalance or liquidity. And there's an imbalance at exactly the 127% extension.If there's a slight chance that doesn't happen I do have multiple take profits set up, but more than likely this will be the scenario. I've seen play out so many times that I know there's players in the room with large amounts of money able to manipulate the charts right when they want to. If this doesn't Happen, I'LL be Surprised. Good luck and happy trading :)
Long
by BodiesXWix
GBP/USD 4H Indicating BearishnessHi traders, it's yet another week and this means fresh opportunities in the majors. Today I bring to your attention the short position I am currently holding on GBP/USD . This pair is currently in a longterm downtrend, therefore the highest probability trades will be found shorting the pair, this frames my bias. On May 4th the market ran just above the high of April 29th on FOMC volatility , the market then returned below this high, breaking market structure in the process, traders using institutional concepts refer to this as the stop hunt. With this framework, once price returned to the breaker which initiated the stop hunt, I entered my short positions. The stop loss of the trade is placed above the 4H breaker block (the block is represented by the red rectangle ) and my final take profit level is placed at the high of the 4H fair value gap. The level represented by the blue line indicates where I will take my first partial if price moves in my favour. I have selected this level since it is an area of mitigation and so price can bounce from there. More details of the overall framework of this trade is explained in further detail in my first publication, which can be seen below this publication in the "related ideas" section. I really appreciate you for reading this post and remember, buy/sell at levels that make sense and let the market do the rest. May the markets be with you.
Short
by FEDquant
2
$BTC - Fill 4 HR FVG - Bullish Scalp to Bearish OB - *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges, trendlines, channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. According to SMT price wants to fill imbalances, there is a current 4 hour imbalance in the chart and it stops near 36,000 (Just below) So I gave it some wiggle room for entry after it fills the imbalance it should start a bullish move until the price level hits something the algorithm will remember, such as a bearish order block. A bearish order block is your last bullish candle before the bearish candles close below the bullish candle. The beginning of that bullish cand will be the bearish order block. That is what I think will happen to this chart. It will drop and fill the imbalance and pull up to the bearish order block. All you need to make a money in this game is to see that possibility and put a decent lot size on a futures trade and trade with about 10-15x leverage. You can easily pull off $either $5 or $2,000 depending on how much you have in your account and how much you want to risk. But these types of setups should be easy to spot and easy to capitalize on. It will act as if it wants to continue bearish after filling the imbalance but that is to get retail traders in the trade selling short so smart money can they take it north, ripping the money out of the short sellers pockets and into theirs. Think like them. This is how I would play it if I were an institution. This is not trade advice. This is simply an observation of my experience and my training in Smart Money. COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSD GEMINI:BTCUSD CME:BTC1! INDEX:BTCUSD CME:BTC2!
FTX:BTCUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
3
$BTC - To Long after breaking short of sell side Liquidity *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remembers price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equasl Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. Bitcoin created a short term low within a 4 hour fair value gap yesterday. Was suspicious that it would break lower, fill the GAP and turn bullish, whi it has somewhat done already but there is time to stuill jump in as it is at a low point, but we didn't make a lower low overall. Exit Strategy would be a short-term fair value gap discount. NOTE: as a smart money technical analysis, My chay, lsart is full of boxes and rays, I apologize if I do not have any of them properly marked but the boxes usually represent an imbalance on a larger time frame (4 hour , Daily) that price is attracted toward filling. It has currently filled the 4 hour fair value gap which is another reason I believe it will long from here. Plus it's Sunday, last day of the week the weekly candle will be finishing up it's formation which I believe the price has cam close enough to the bullish order block on the weekly that we should see bullishness, However there is a possibility that it drops into the price range of the body of that last red weekly candle below current price (38,400 - 37,700)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BodiesXWix