Institutions
EJ LongWe have this retail support zone where price broke through previously. We have this retail head and shoulders pattern forming on the lower time frames which retail traders will be watching. Price should come down towards to he sniper block (Marked in pink) and then in the intended direction. This will be grabbing retail liquidity so the institutions can get in at better price.
BACK IN THE GAME... LET'S SMASH 2020 TOGETHER!!Been away from trading due to holidays (Thank you Isreal you were amazing!!)
So here we are in a long term descending channel from a higher timeframe. Price will most certainly reach the top and re-test it.
And during this long term channel, we have a shorter ascending channel with a perfect place to enter.
HOWEVER...
If it was only that easy ever retail trader would make money! The banks know this and manipulate to market to take out all the stop losses for liquidity. They need this as their orders are so big, price would just shoot if they tried to place them all at one level.
GOLDEN RULE - - - FOR A TRANSACTION TO TAKE PLACE ON THE MARKET, THERE MUST BE A BUYER AND THERE MUST BE A SELLER. ALWAYS.
Planning a trade wayyy before it happens.... HERE'S HOWI'm expecting price to return to the long term descending channel as there is a lot of liquidity there for the taking.
I expect this to happen via the channel breaking (wiping out stop losses) then price to continue downward. I have a trade idea already generated before price even reaches that destination, so when it does I am fully prepared for any scenario.
If you can try and look to the future then you will get a better feel for the markets.
I struggled to explain this one, sorry.
Happy trading!
Psychological Levels are Easy Market's to Trade! (+400 pips)It's pretty straight forward here, with a 3rd rejection imminent of a key level and psychological level (1), we can use this to our advantage by placing a sell-limit at the rejected daily price of 1 with tight stops. Using this technique may result in being stop hunted (as you see the second test spiked a 4th time), however the 3rd drive into the key level statistically negates his probability severely, making the risk worth the reward. As you can see, the RR in this REAL trade I took was unreal. It was nonetheless, a great example of how to play around with key levels especially concerning the historical significance of this kley level for USD/CHF which will require you to do some backtesting to see (the relevance of 1's backtesting played a factor into my confidence factor while executing). Support and resistance levels are one of the most important technical factors in trading. “Key levels” are certain prices for a currency pair which may support the price below the current market level or a price which may resist above the current market level. Support acts as a floor and resistance acts as a ceiling, both of which are “barriers of price.”
Send me a PM for questions, or comment below. I'm happy to help those that are eager to learn how easy this market is to trade if you can see it in a certain detail.
GBP/NZD - LONG... Did you just get stopped out? Here's whyDid you just hand back over some money to the market after what you thought was a great entry? But why, that "support" looks fantastic? You might have thought;
Multiple touches in the past, strong zone.
Price created some nice bullish Price Action, it must be bouncing off the support.
We had a huge strong move up not too long ago.
This is accumulation within that strong move now is a good entry.
Lets enter and place our stops underneath that strong zone, surely price will fly!
All the banks and the big investors see is a nice zone full of stop losses, great liquidity for the taking. Why would the banks try and fill their massive orders at a worse price, when they can manipulate it downwards and gain a much much better entry.
Trade smarter not harder. Follow the big money in the markets. Wait until the liquidity (stops) have been cleared out, then enter!
Top 5 reasons big institutions will never go big in crypto1- They don't need to.
JPM was the 6th most profitable company in the world in 2018 according to fortune.
They made $32.4 billion net profit (109 billion in revenue). They have 2.7 trillion worth of assets.
Turning 10 million into 1 billion in 5 years which is the dream of many, they won't even notice.
2- They have to set up a whole department, risk management, traders, etc, just for 1 small market.
Without the wash trading the entirety of crypto volume is about 3 billion (including bitmex I think), remove all the micro coins not worth looking at, and they have access to 2 billion volume maybe.
The market cap of the whole thing is a few hundred billions. Sell orders of 1000 BTC drop the price by 15%... Rofl...
Then half of it gets taxed and 2/3 of whats left goes in salaries and fees...
3- It is the wild west and a huge ponzi like it or not.
Half of the 2015-2017 bull market was attributed to 1 manipulator using Tether. Before that the Willy bot was pumping prices.
And 95% of crypto volume was proven to be fake. And MtGox got hacked. So many scams so many complications.
They'd have to create a wallet and if they want to sell every one will know. So create wallets. They get 1000 times a $50 transaction or maybe worse.
And it could take hours for them to transfer their BTC.
And they would need several brokers to affect the price as little as possible.
There are just so many complications.
4- The majority of Institutional Investors are looking for income & minimum returns. The rare ones that want big returns have no incentive or cannot join.
Bitcoin pays no interest. Already it is something they are not used to.
And the prime role of those institutions is not to look for maximum returns.
They just want some minimum level of return then more is bonus they gladly welcome if it does not come with increased risk or low liquidity.
Bitcoin has wild 80% moves in both directions. And it would be hard for investors to get their money out. It's just not their target. It's an inferior investment to what already exists.
You can forget about pension and mutual funds immediately. The biggest 2.
The "crazier" ones are hedge funds, and there are some in crypto. They are suspected to manipulate prices (so risk ending in front of a judge), and many ended up with 80% losses and such.
Existing hedge funds that are successful are looking to scale up on bigger markets, not scale down lol what are people thinking.
And the unsuccessful ones can't get clients, and why would anyone invest with a loser that now is going to gamble his last chance in crypto?
Even with all the hype from 2017 very little funds were able to get started. Just a couple randoms with no previous experience, that are popular with "the masses" usually made of young gullible delusional dumb money, and managed to gather a few millions to "invest" (take their 2% fee and then flip a coin investors take all the risk).
5- They care about their reputation and emm... what do you think... They don't want to go to jail duh!
Maybe this is the biggest one. They have all to lose and nearly nothing to gain. This one is obvious...
Especially recently, after 2008, they have spent enough time in front of judges or members of parliament to want to go gamble on magic beans.
They get roasted by senators for exposing their investors to a company that ended up going bankrupt. They are held accountable for everything.
Some legit, or that seemed legit, company, regulated, that filled all the paperwork, all they do is let their investors touch it, and if tough luck it goes to zero, that's it, there is a hearing with the government.
Imagine if that happened with a virtual currency made out of thin air with no legal ties, no one in charge, no regulation, nothing.
Especially with every one angry after 2008. They'd get sentenced to death!
Risk death to make 0.25% mmmyeah they are NEVER going to go into crypto if they have half a brain.
1 counter argument no one ever cared about, but they will start caring about once the shills tell them it will bring institutions in: in 2020 CME is launching Bitcoin options.
Crypto "investors" care about ONE thing and ONE thing only: reasons for price to go up. They care about NOTHING other than this, it's insane.
There's probably going to be another risible "bull market start" in early 2020 with CME options and The Halving™
EUR/USD TRADEMucha liquidez por encima de esos "equal highs". Llegamos a un climax de venta, nuestro punto de entrada sera en el "Re-test" de esa zona del climax donde las instituciones buscan llegar al balance entre compra y venta. Como reaccion al contacto de este punto espero un rechazo de esa zona continuado por una tendencia alcista hasta llegar a recoger esa liquidez (equal highs)
GOLD| Bank IdealogyGold Monthly Analysis
With trade wars between the US and China ongoing, we have already seen the impacts of the conflict:
1) Investors moving to safe havens like gold and JPY
therefore, we have seen a surge in Gold prices since last 2 weeks.
Im expecting gold to continue rising as the conflict continues.
Banks are still holding and picking up gold as the market advances. I expect a drop /dip before a safe buy.
Trendline may act as support if looked at the daily chart.
New All Time High - Risky BuyS&P New All Time Highs - Risky Buy
The Emini and S&P 500 made a new all time high again today, leading many to believe this market is still strong. In some ways it is, but it is more important to realize it is also in a bull flag trading range. This makes it a risky place to buy up here. This is where strong bulls who bought lower will start looking to take profits, and strong bears will start looking to sell for a move down.
Why is it risky to buy now? There is only a 40% chance of a measured move up based on the height of the trading range. And the risk needed to enter now is large (below the bottom of the trading range). There is at least a 50% chance of a test down soon, back into the range. The middle of the trading range is a magnet and will likely get tested before the bull trend continues. Furthermore, if the bears are soon able to create a strong reversal bar for the large wedge, it could increase the probability to 60% for two legs down. If there is a quick and large move up in the next few weeks, it would likely act as a climax and final flag reversal, increasing the likelihood of a sell off.
Dont think just because there is no reversal yet that the market cant or wont sell off. Look at the past two sell offs from this area. They began from bull bars (Jan 18 two bar reversal), or small inconspicuous bars (Sep 18 doji to outside bear bar). But the follow through was strong and fast. Of course, this does not mean a shorter term trader cant buy and make money. Day traders can do many things investors do not or should not. But as far as a long term investment, this is simply not a safe one to buy at the current price level unless you are willing to sit through a deep pullback and scale in. And if you are - why not just wait and buy then?
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AAPL Losing Institutional InterestAAPL is now below 60% of its shares held by Institutions. Dark Pools continue to slowly rotate out of AAPL, even as the stock bounced up on corporate buybacks recently.
KO Earnings: Dark Pool Rotation vs. BuybacksCoca Cola has been in a major buyback mode for its stock in an attempt to move the price up. The buybacks have faced heavier than normal Dark Pool rotation (large lot selling) against the automated buyback orders. Recently the buybacks have increased, creating some interesting anomalies in the large lot indicators as well as in price patterns. Retail traders, who trade this stock heavily, are often fooled by buyback candlestick patterns. Institutional holdings has declined, which is unusual during a buyback mode.
Institutional Rotation in AMZN Chart PatternsRotation has been underway most of the summer months in the AMZN chart. Rotation is the slow, methodical selling of shares held in inventory for the Trusts of Derivative Developers and the Charters of Mutual Funds. The largest institutions are lowering their risk, expecting the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports to impact AMZN with either rising prices and costs or lower sales and revenues, or both. The rotation is NOT disturbing the price trend, as is their intent.
Martha Stokes, C.M.T.
