$INTC: Forecast/guessI'm 'hodling' $INTC, my average cost basis is quite good here, so I can afford letthing this winner run. I think we could be in the presence of a huge weekly uptrend but we need to break above the overhead resistance zone before having more confidence in this scenario. For now, I'd reccomend caution and only holding up to 10% of your portfolio in it if invested.
The Spectre and Meltdown security flaws are real and have put a dent in the stock but it's clear long term buyers are still in control, judging by how supply as absorbed lately.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
INTC
Intel Set To Lead Intermediate Bears DownAlthough, harder to identify at first, Intel Corporation is in the process of Grand Supercycle Wave 3. The stock has most likely met a near-term top or will do so no later than tomorrow, January 23. Our short-term target is 40.50 by the end of February. Our Intermediate target is 30.00 by June of 2019. Once the stock reverses up from this 30 mark, the stock should fly high for a while. Finally, the long-term target is 78.00 well out in to the future (2022-2024). As always, the rest of the stats will be up shortly on our site.
INTC updateSeems like the news on chip vulnerability didn't cause too much trouble to the company's stock.
Price went down as anticipated in a previous analysis (see related ideas) but the price pretty much held the first support (dotted line) traced on the previous analysis.
Long-term Moving Averages results bearish although MACD is bullish with reducing volumes.
My take is that the value will keep oscillating around the 43$ value, waiting for further news to be unveiled.
INTC SupportGiven the news on the potential vulnerability of Intel chips the stock lost 4% and it is probably due to fall again as soon as the news goes mainstream. Technically speaking I see a first support around 43.10$, level of the "gap up" occurred on Oct 26th, 2017 when the company discoled its Q3 earning report.
If that level is broken there might be even more margin to profit from a short.
INTC Covered Straddle for earningsI acquired 2 lots of INTC from selling the 35 & 36 covered calls back in June (the calls expired).
With call premium this was a 34.66 cost basis on 2 lots of INTC
On Jul 27 for playing earnings, I sold the 35 straddle for 166 credit, for breakevens at 33.34 & 36.66
1 lot of stock was called away at 35 yesterday right at the breakeven. (Costs another $15 for the assignment fee which sucks. )
The stock then sold off 1/2% in premarket the next morning. Had I gone with a say a 34/36 this assignment may not have happened.
However, a good thing is this reduces the positive deltas my portfolio holds too much of.
I still hold another lot of stock which has a decent gain at this point and I can either hold or sell another covered call against it to bring in more credit.
The put I expect to expire worthless but I'll close the put early if the value falls to less than 5c (no fee).
Monthly breakout above 41$I've read this article that talks about NVDA, AMD and new potential competition - www.marketwatch.com
I decided to take a look and this is what I've found:
1) Brekaout of a monthly channel.
2) Attempt to break above 40$ and a weekly resistance zone.
Based on this analysis, FTJSY can be an interesting alternative to NVDA... a cheaper one, if you think that this industry has a longer term potential.
Thoughts?
INTC short position Strong Bearish Trend!!
1: Testing the 100 EMA resistence
2: Stoch overbought
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Bearish MA Cross For IntelOn April 7, 2017, the Intel Corporation ( INTC ) crossed below its 100 day moving average (MA). Historically this has occurred 241 times and the stock does not always drop. The stock has a median loss of 4.249% and a maximum loss of 34.757% over the next 10 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 54.9964. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is relatively neutral, with no clear volatile price swing on the horizon.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -4.9091. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current direction declares the stock is moving up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1026. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is steadily moving down while the negative indicator is moving up and cementing this sentiment.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 66.3386 and D value is 71.8470. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock just came out of an overbought level and should continue to move down.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 1.76% over the next 10 trading days. Of the previous four times the stock has crossed below the 100 day MA, it has had a minimal drop of 1.191%.
Big short?Call me crazy but I think AMD is going to fill some serious gaps downward. The stock is overly valued. Look what happened to the stock in 2011 after they released the FX series. It was nothing but hype. The company also have one of the worst balance sheet. Someone brought up a good point on StockTwits that the book value on this thing is $.44. So current valuations are WAY OFF the chart trading at 33 times the book value. I think this thing will take a serious dive. Only time will tell.
Intermediate Gain For INTC, Set To Drop FirstOn March 31, 2017 Intel Corporation ( INTC ) crossed above its 100 day moving average (MA), while the 50 day MA crossed below its 150 day MA. This multiple cross event has never occurred before. Historically the stock has crossed above the 100 day MA 241 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to gain. It has a median gain of 5.777% and maximum gain of 34.615% over the next 15 trading days. Historically the 50 MA has crossed below the 150 MA 33 times. When this happens, the stock has dropped at least 0.05%. It has a median loss of 4.464% and maximum loss of 23.498% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 57.6486. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral but heading upward.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -13.7715. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending down, however, the indicator recently hit a low point and has begun to climb.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1253 and recently crossed above the negative indicator. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending upward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 84.77 and D value is 72.55. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock has been trending up but is approaching the overbought level--due to signal a crossover within a week and lead to a decline in the stock.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending upward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain 4.3% over the next four weeks. I am tracking two scenarios with the latter being most likely. The first one is the stock goes up to my target line without a significant drop. The likely course, the stock could drop by mid-April to the support line of its current trend which would satisfy the stochastic reading. After this drop, the stock would be able to hit my target level of 37.65.