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Something's stirring in the gold marketA break above 1180 could signal the end of the secular bear market within the larger bull market of gold, as for the first time gold made a higher high price since it fell from a peak of 1900. Current price action is considerately overbought, but every dip was bought up given the fear and global macro. Next few days we might potentially see Dollar correcting by at least 3% and this will be the catalyst of a 'higher-high' in Gold vs USD ratio. Yes I'm aware, analysis such as Harry Dent is calling for $700 gold. I'm unconvinced. Deflation is the trend in the global economy and gold is an inflation hedge. So why would gold go up when the global economy is deflating? Link: economyandmarkets.com Simple, central banks all around the world are stuck. In the midst of a market crash and interest rate were still at 0%, not even QE is having any significant impact in countries like Japan and Europe. Markets are in untested water! They have no other gunpowder to stimulate the economy right now. Historically gold rallies in times of a rising interest rate since it is an inflationary hedge, and interest rate rises because the economy is heating up. Market expectations are changing. From a strong dollar as a result of Janet Yellen not wanting to lose her confidence by rising rates, to macro fears about the global economy. People will be expecting rates to be dropped, or even negative in the following months. What if the interest rate were to be negative if Central Banks run out of options? What if more QE was done? Why would anyone still want to keep their money in insolvent banks and be charged at a monthly fee? Gold isn't just a commodity, it is also a form of money beyond the control of any entity like Bitcoin. The correlation impact of the economy to gold will be pretty insignificant, considering the bigger picture as a hedge against a risk. Some other factors includes only 73,000 ounce of gold remaining in the vaults of COMEX as of 2nd Feb 2016. 542 ounce of paper gold owner backed by just 1 ounce of physical gold. What if these people starts asking for their gold back with the paper contracts they bought? You can expect a default ahead in the exchange just like the infamous bitcoin exchange, MtGox. It is simply an accident waiting to happen! Mike Maloney: www.youtube.com
FX:XAUUSDLong
by LastBattle
2
GBPNZD - Short Term BearishRBNZ Interest Rate Decision - there has been speculation that the bank will cut rate today. In anticipation of this most of the NZD pairs have shown NZD to be weak as other have gained. However, looking at all NZD pairs it seems that the gains have been of the corrective nature. Therefore, if the rates are maintained there could be spike in the prevailing direction and then reverse. So with that in mind whilst GBPNZD remains long term bullish, the overall correction in play from recent high at 2.10 is still in development. If correct I suspect we might get short opportunity with high at 2.081 as the pivot on which suitable protective stop loss could be place or even better the high of 2.10. Downside target is potentially 1.97 - 1.95 zone as the bottom of the rising trend channel. Failing this once the action has settled a short position could be considered on any retracement of the initial decline. As always, if you like my analysis select to follow me and the chart but do your own analysis for any trade planning and appropriate money management. DanV
Short
by DanV
2
DOWI: Toward a formation of a double top?The ichimoku chart shows that DOWI will go a little bit on the upside, but indicators show that there isn't a lot of room left on the upside. Tenkan Kijun twist may occur inside the cloud wich would announce a soft upside. Having an eye on the Kumo cloud and particularly on the next days show that there is a twist and confirme a reversal, at least a correction on the downside in the coming days. Therefore, if DOWI reaches 17080 or around on the upside, this may very much be a double top. This would then suggesgtthat the neck line is at 16333 and after a little upside correctio, the index may go down until 16000 or 15800. Having said that, bare in mind that 1-FED didn't decide yet to increase its interest rate. 2- There is still cheap money in the market. Therefore, the correction process is a fact, but we are not yet in a Bear market although this may happen sooner or later.
DJ:DJI
by Pashabxl
1
EURUSD: 4 Candle left before ECB Announcement. In principale market has already priced ECB interst rate decision i.e to lower the interest rate and refi rate to negatif. Therefore is no decision is taken, Eur will jump high against USD. If the decision of ECB is limited to interst rate cut, then, there may be a swift move down to 1.355 or even bellow to 1.352 but the buyers will come back on the market, because decreasing interest rate will not be enough for the market. European QE is not yet on the table even if this issue has been discussed by EU memberstates and ECB officials. Therefore, on a medium term, EUR may move again upside towards a more realistic level i.e 1.385 or even a little bit higher before any genuine intervention o nthe market of ECB. We are not a heart beat away, but just 4 candle away from ECB PResident Mario Draghi's press conference. LEt's wait and see
by Pashabxl
1