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Interest

Despite the threat of recession, inflation is rising.Normally inflation falls when there's a recession, but this time that is not happening. Central banks (including the FED) have pumped too much liquidity into the system over recent years and even with the threat of recession, we're seeing some scary inflation data. From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: "For the year ended January 2020, within final demand foods, prices for fresh and dry vegetables increased 21.4 percent, while prices for pork increased 14.9 percent. Over that period, prices for eggs for fresh use decreased 22.1 percent and prices for fresh fruits and melons decreased 9.3 percent. Within energy, prices for gasoline increased 23.1 percent and prices for home heating oil and distillates increased 12.0 percent for the year ended January 2020. Prices for liquefied petroleum gas decreased 32.5 percent." Declining inflation expectations are wrong and will turn up when more data keeps coming.
AMEX:RINFLong
by malvinspooner
AUDUSD - gains on weaker US dollar.Inflation expectation is creeping higher in Australia. Currently, Core CPI is at 1.60, CPI Housing Utilities is increasing, the inflation rate is currently 1.7 and up 0.1 from September. With the US CPI coming out today better than expected but less than the previous reading traders have sold the US dollar. The likelihood is that the Fed keeps interest rates as they are today at the FOMC meeting but narrow the gap between the US and Australian rates in the early part of 2020. The AUDUSD has started to create higher highs and higher lows and this could continue if the trade war news and tariffs, in general, don't cause any further global economic damage.
by ForexVox
US 10 year yield forecast. Heading to 0?This is an update to previous ideas charted at New Years 2019. The 10 year yield has been following the path of lower yields in a lock step fashion, however the pace of declining yields is concerning. The 3 day looks like Niagara Falls Where do we go from here? Currently, the 10 yr yield is in the middle of the 1 (1.32%) and .786 (1.734%) retrenchment lines with a biased towards heading to 1.32. Two possibilities. 1) Yield punches right through 1.32% and set set new lows. 2) More likely in my view: "China/Trade" news comes along just in time to see yields reach or even briefly penetrate 1.32%, forming a triple bottom reversal, before reversing and heading back up towards 1.73% From here, yields could see a rejection from 1.32% and begin heading back towards 1.734%. RSI is oversold, also suggesting a reversal could come soon. However, said reversal will be fleeting. Sometime by or before reaching 1.734% I would expect yields to run out of steam and resume their decline before testing 1.32% and ultimately breaking lower. There is no such this as a quadruple bottom/top so in this scenario, the yield will crash below 1.32% and 0% becomes a very real possibility in the next 12 months. How does this tie into mortgage rates? The 10 year is a good general barometer for interest rates but Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), while improving (rates dropping) the rate of improvement has been slower than what we would expect given the halving of treasury yield in just 9 short months.
TVC:US10YShort
by jdharward
XLF is going to take a nosedive as the US turns dovishRight, a bit of a congested chart... In white, we have $XLF, purple, the US unemployment rate, orange is the European bank index and in yellow, we have the effective Fed Funds rate (US interest rate). Recent rhetoric from the Fed has been pretty dovish, and we have had a pause in hiking rates, with there likely to be absolutely no hike this year. If an economy that is apparently 'doing well' cannot afford a rate hike, is there not something seriously wrong? Let's take the European banks... Since the crisis, they've experienced negative rates whilst the US has had positive real rates... See, banks like interest rates. It allows them to make money, and allows for productive lending since there is not adverse selection when it comes to borrowers. The Fed is about to follow the ECB's lead... I think Fed member Williams said they could go to negative rates if needed... Which is crazy, since all they end up doing is creating zombie firms. So let's get this idea set... The Fed are pausing with rate hikes... They're likely to stop the balance sheet run off... And unemployment is at a record low... Every time the Fed has stopped their rate hike cycle, unemployment has increased and XLF has fallen off... Is that a decent enough thesis to get short if we start seeing unemployment data tick up? Well, we already have... we've just had the highest Q1 layoffs in the US since the financial crisis... Buckle up!
AMEX:XLFShort
by FinkPro
I will remain long here with the GBPUSD pair.Here on the GBPUSDcurrency pair i have reason to believe a long position will be very rewarding over the coming months. Based on my technical analysis price has rallied for the bears over the past 3 years and due to recent changes in the economy as well as inflation taking a toll on the DXY, the bulls have now entered the market. My technical analysis indicates that price has no returned to 23%-38% of the bearish rally and is heading to recover even more. I even have the sights of $1.40-$1.60 in mind. Brexit will also [lay a major role in the coming trend changes I have predicted for the GBPUSD. I must say this move will be exiting either way, Happy Trading , manage your risk and don't get caught on the wrong side of the board. THe URban GeNius
Long
by UrbanGeniusOfficial