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UCAD Bears Ready to Break 2 Month Long Falling Support??OANDA:USDCAD has been supported by a Falling Support Trend line since August 14th and here soon Price could potentially give us a Bearish Break to that Trend line! Once a Breakout is validated, we could look for a Retest Set-Up for some Short Opportunities to take Price down to the Support Zone created by the August and September 2024 Lows. An interesting fact to point out is if you observe the reaction of Price when it tests the Falling Support, we can see Price arc and the following reactions arc smaller, suggesting Bulls are losing strength on the push off of the Falling Support! Price Action is being heavily driven by Fundamentals in the markets this week: -USD- ADP Non-Farm Employment - Previous 60K / Forecast 111K / Actual 37K ISM Services PMI - Previous 51.6 / Forecast 52 / Actual 49.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI - Previous 48.7 / Forecast 49.3 / Actual 48.5 ISM Manufacturing Prices - Previous 69.8 / Forecast 70.2 / Actual 48.5 Unemployment Claims - Previous 239K / Forecast 236K / Actual 247K *Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate are to be released tomorrow -CAD- BOC held Interest Rates @ 2.75% Ivey PMI - Previous 47.9 / Forecast 48.3 / Actual 48.9 *Employment Change and Unemployment are to be released tomorrow With BOC holding Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve possibly looking to cut rates because of a "softening labor market", this could fuel CAD to overcome the pair and put Bears in control to pull Prices lower! www.tradingview.com
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
Rate Cuts and Risky Bets: When the Fed Rolls Out the Red Carpet🎬 The Fed’s June Meeting Is Around the Corner Mark your calendars: June 17–18 is when the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes next. With the benchmark interest rate ECONOMICS:USINTR currently holding steady at 4.25% – 4.50%, investors and policymakers alike are keenly awaiting any signals of a shift in monetary policy. Market expectations suggest a cautious approach, with futures markets indicating a modest probability of rate cuts in the latter half of the year. That said, the upcoming meeting could offer some juicy insights into the Fed's outlook — yes, in this economy. 🤝 Trump vs. Powell: The Sequel No One Asked For President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently had their first face-to-face meeting during Trump’s second term, rekindling a familiar tension. Trump criticized Powell for maintaining high interest rates, saying it puts the US at an economic disadvantage compared to countries like China. Not too surprising, Trump’s tone, that is. As a matter of fact, it’s way softer than when the President called the Fed chair a “major loser.” Anyway, Powell was holding back at the meeting, saying that the Fed is independent and that monetary policy decisions are based on objective economic data, not political pressure. Despite Trump's public and private criticisms, Powell remains steadfast in his approach, focusing on long-term economic stability over short-term political considerations. 📉 Inflation, Employment, and the Tightrope Walk Inflation has decreased significantly from its peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 2.3% in April 2025 , nearing the Fed's 2% target. However, the labor market remains robust, with unemployment rates at historically low levels. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act: cutting rates too soon could reignite inflation, while maintaining high rates might dampen economic growth. This tightrope walk requires careful analysis of incoming data and a measured approach to policy adjustments. 🛍️ Market Reactions: Bulls, Bytes, and Bullion If rate cuts are the rumor, the S&P 500 SP:SPX is already buying the headline. The index clawed back all of its early-year slump and now sits just above the flatline. Traders are clearly pricing in a friendlier Fed, even if Jerome Powell hasn’t sent out the official RSVP yet. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD , meanwhile, has been doing what it does best — quietly flexing in the corner as uncertainty swirls. Prices bounced back above $3,300 in late May, reminding everyone that when central banks blink, bullion blings. A rate cut could weaken the dollar — and gold’s inverse relationship with the greenback suddenly looks like a playbook move. Speaking of the dollar, the dollar index TVC:DXY has been wobbling like it’s just finding its feet. With inflation softening and tariff noise all over the place, the buck has lost some swagger . Traders are already rotating out of safe havens and into riskier plays, including… Yep, Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ). Crypto’s original bad boy is back on the move, orbiting near $110,000 after rewriting its all-time high book in May. A dovish Fed can technically pour more rocket fuel into the rally, especially as sovereign adoption and ETF flows keep pumping ( $9 billion in just five weeks?! ). In the land of easy money, Bitcoin doesn’t just survive — it thrives. The takeaway? Markets love a dovish pivot. Whether you're holding stocks, stacking sats, or eyeing gold bars, the Fed’s next move could be the difference between breakout and breakdown. 🧠 What to Keep in Mind As the June Fed meeting approaches, traders should consider the following strategies: Diversification: Maintain a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with interest rate volatility. Equity Exposure: Evaluate exposure to sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as the good old tech space and throw in some financials — banks love rate moves. Inflation Hedges: Consider assets like gold or silver to hedge against unexpected inflationary pressures. 🧾 Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty The June Fed meeting isn’t just another calendar event — it’s a market-defining moment dressed in central bank jargon. With politics heating up and inflation cooling down, Powell’s next move could either pump more cash into the risk rally or throw cold water on the party. Yes, the noise is loud. Yes, the data is messy. But through it all, one thing holds: staying nimble beats being early. Whether you're riding the S&P 500, hodl’ing Bitcoin, or hugging gold like a doomsday prepper, this is the time to trade the chart, not the chatter. Off to you : Are you in the rate-cut camp or you think there’s more ground to cover before Powell and his squad tune the pitch down? Comment below!
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by TradingView
6
RBNZ rate decision coming upKeep your eyes on the rate cut tomorrow by the RBNZ and on the NZD reaction to all of it. We have an interesting technical set up building on FX_IDC:NZDUSD . Let's dig in... MARKETSCOM:NZDUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
Bitcoin MA 50 crosses 100If history repeats, this could be even bigger gains soon ahead. The blue MA 50 just crossed the orange MA 100 which happened in Oct '24 as well as Oct '23 -- this time happening so soon could defy historical pattern, but with a possible Fed interest rate cut in the works, this could be huge. After the recent Fed announcement that there would be no interest rate cuts at this time, the reason given was that the market was holding steady, though a recession was not entirely ruled out. If a recession starts to rear its ugly head before June 17th Fed meeting, they may change their outlook and enact interest rate cuts to ensure the economy can continue unscathed. Since Trump has walked back tariffs on China and is still working with the rest of the world to lower tariffs, the interest rates may not be cut in June. What does this mean for Bitcoin? A recession is still on the horizon, even without rate cuts and with lowered tariffs. The damage has already been done by tariffs, enough so that reports of impending empty shelves soon to hit stores this month is still a concern. People flock to other investment strategies when the market is so uncertain, hence Gold and Bitcoin getting their boosts recently. It's my opinion that Bitcoin will continue to grow in price as investors scramble to keep their portfolios on an uptrend. The MA 50 and MA 100 crossing is a great signal and gives me confidence in a continuing uptrend.
Long
by neuromancer
Why I'm Bullish on the DXY: A Fundamental Approach!Powell continues to take a cautious tone, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach while acknowledging rising inflation risks, which suggests there's no urgency to cut rates. This leans slightly hawkish, especially compared to the market’s more dovish expectations, and could support some near-term Dollar strength. However, a more sustained move in the USD likely hinges on progress in upcoming trade discussions—particularly with China. Today's FOMC outcome is just one part of the broader picture; the next key signal may come with developments in the coming days. For now, the bias remains USD bullish heading into the London session. Technically, the DXY has broken its downtrend, signaling a potential shift in momentum. I’ll be watching for a possible retracement toward the 99.700 area, which could serve as a key support level before any further upside continuation.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
4
Bitcoin Analysis - 7 MayThe price continues to move within the range of $91,700 - $100,400. In approximately 3 hours, the FED will announce its interest rate decision. The expectation is for it to remain unchanged. If it remains unchanged; there could be a horizontal consolidation between 94,990 – 97,500. If a breakout occurs, the upward movement will accelerate; otherwise, there could be a pullback to the 91,781 – 94,990 levels. If the interest rate is reduced; the psychological resistance at 100,400 USDT may be tested, and if surpassed, the target of 109,605 (ATH) comes into play. If the interest rate is increased; the supports at 94,990 USDT and below could be tested quickly. The levels of 91,781 and 85,085 USDT become potential targets. With stronger selling, the support zone at the 2024 ATH level of 73,776 USDT may come into play.
by CryptoSignalAPP
Morning Star To Wake GU TradersFX:GBPUSD has fallen into a Wedge Pattern after breaking Mondays Highs! Price this morning has seemingly found Support at the 50% Retracement level signaling the potential ending of the Consolidation phase of the Wedge! This Retracement comes in the form of a Morning Star, a strong Triple Candle Reversal Pattern! If Price is supported in this area, we could see a Bullish Break to this Pattern delivering a Long Opportunities as a Break and Retest Set-up!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
Gold - All eyes on Wednesday 08 May - FED🟡 Gold Traders: Nothing Matters Until Wednesday! ⏳💤 Hey traders! 👋 This week, all eyes are on Wednesday... and everything before that? Mostly noise. Let me break it down for you. 👇 📊 Technical Outlook Gold is chilling above a key resistance level right now. Trendlines suggest we won’t see any major moves before Wednesday unless big news drops. 📰 🕐 Asian session is kicking things off above resistance. If bulls show up there, we could break Trendline 1 (Image below) and head towards the $3300 🎯 target. 📉 RSI across multiple timeframes? Pretty neutral. If Asia trades flat or slightly bearish, gold might range between $3210–$3250. Break below $3201, and things could get shaky... but the European session might push us back above that support. U.S. session on Monday? Likely a sideways snoozefest 😴 (unless surprise news hits). 🎯 Trade Setup (Mon–Wed) I’m looking to play the range between: $3261 (Trendline 2) 🔼 and $3169 (Trendline 4) 🔽 That’s a comfy $90 window I’m aiming to trade before Wednesday's fireworks. 🚀 🔮 After Wednesday – The FED Factor 💣 Here’s the real catalyst: Wednesday, May 7 at 2:00 PM EST – FOMC Rate Decision If the FED cuts rates (not likely, but possible under pressure), gold could tank hard. 💥 I’m talking a potential drop to $3150 or lower 🕳️📉 That’d be a -$90+ move easy. FED has been holding the line 💪, resisting pressure (especially from Trump back in the day), but if the economy flashes red, that rate cut might come sooner than expected. 🧠 Final Thoughts FED paused hikes, but left the door open for 3 rate cuts this year. Until we get more clarity, no strong bullish signals on gold. My bias stays: Bearish unless proven otherwise. 🐻💬 Stay sharp out there, and watch those sessions. Wednesday’s the real deal! 💼📉 And last but not least, look at this and let us know what you think about please: Some would say its impossible but as we know, gold can do everything! ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
SPX Running Into Important Resistance At 5780Last week we saw a weaker-than-expected Advance GDP in the first release, which led some to believe Powell might consider cutting rates. But Friday’s NFP came in better than expected. Expectations are no change for the Fed, and I honestly don’t believe they’ll move either. Despite Trump putting pressure on them, inflation is still not at their 2% target, and the job market remains solid—so there may be no real reason to cut yet. They’re watching markets too, and we've seen a pretty strong rebound, so there’s likely no urgency to act now. Also, if they were to cut, it could appear politically motivated due to Trump, and that could seriously damage investor trust in the Fed’s independence. So with that being said, we are wondering if the SPX can find some resistance if FED does not deliver a dovish view at this moment. Well, looking at the price action, it certainly looks overlaping recovery from April low, that can face limited upside near 5780, at April 2nd high. If by Friday, we close above the 78.6% Fib then we may look at wave 3, alt sceario. Grega
VANTAGE:SP500
by ew-forecast
My NQ Long Idea 5/5/2025Been a while but I haven't been posting ideas because I have been scalping and doing smaller time frame trades. I think we have NQ at a nice price level where we might see a bull run soon with the market sentiment slowly "thawing" on the idea of "risk-off" sentiment to "risk-on" sentiment and environment with more uncertainties clearing out of the market scenes. We have US trying to negotiate deals with many countries including China which is very challenging and we can never know if it will be achieved or not. However, from an economic point of view we can agree that the US economy is in the Neutral-bullish. We have a very bullish price action in the past week or so. We also have healthy economic numbers but it is still unclear until Wednesday. On Wednesday the FED will speak on this matter and give us some clarity on whether it is a Risk-on or Risk-off environment. Anything will happen but I can see the "Gap" getting filled on FED day due to the SPIKE that will be delivered to us. Currently Edgefinder tool is giving us 8 for NQ with only the GDP and sPMI scores in the negative. However the net score is bullish and on the positive. I think 1 of those two ideas will be played out sooner or later anything can happen but from a technical view I would like to see the price reaching the 50% FIB and then take off from there. It is subjective though and everything in trading is subjective including what I do and say.
VANTAGE:NAS100Long
by stingotho
$JPINTR -BoJ Holds Rates but Cuts GDP Growth Outlook (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR May/2025 source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate at 0.5% during its May meeting, in line with expectations. The unanimous decision came amid growing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs. In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ slashed its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, from January’s estimate of 1.0%. The growth outlook for FY 2026 was also lowered to 0.7% from the prior forecast of 1.0%.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
USD/CHF Bearish Tri Breakout - 5 Signs of a Strong Bearish BreakOANDA:USDCHF Bears have started the week off hot with Price having dropped 1.16% at the time of publication since Market Open. This price decline has seen a Breakout and fresh low after price has been caught in a Bearish Triangle Pattern, formed by Lower Highs into a Support Level. 1) Price has been trading well Below the 200 EMA. 2) After Price makes contact of the 34 EMA Band while attempting a Breakout of the Falling Resistance of the Triangle, it is sent back down into pattern. 3) After the rejection at the Falling Resistance, we see an influx of Volume enter the Markets, ultimately leaning Bearish. 4) All the Price Action while in Pattern has happened while the RSI has been Below 50, adding Bearish Pressure. 5) Price has made a strong Bearish Candle Break so far of the Support Level of the Triangle and the currently Low of Price @ .80684 has given us a new Lower Low, breaking the Support Level Low @ .80983, suggesting Bears have taken the Support Level and will turn it Resistance. ** With all Indications combined, I believe we are looking at a True Bearish Breakout of the Triangle and will be looking for a Break & Retest Set-Up! --> Once Price Confirms the Break and Closes, We should expect a Retest of the Break of Support between ( .80983 - .81141 ) to deliver potential Short Opportunities! Now, Fundamentals: Price Action lately has heavily been influenced by a couple factors: - Federal Reserves current dilemma with deciding to not cut Interest Rates in the assumption that the Tariffs will Rise Inflation while the CPI y/y on April 10th printed a -.4% drop from 2.8% to 2.4% which could create complications later if Interest Rates are not cut soon enough. (If Global Trade slows, that alone will Inflate prices, Tariffs (once applied) will affect as well) - ECB has made the decision to cut Interest Rates 25 bps from 2.65% to 2.4%. This alone in-time will start the act of slowing the economy so the euro doesn't inflate too much and, in theory, will make the Euro seem less attractive for foreign investment. This could leave investors to lean towards one of the worlds most "Safe-haven" currencies, the Swiss Franc with the Franc currently hitting a 10-Year High! www.tradingview.com
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
2
Interest Rates don't seem to want to slow downWe believed that interest rates were going higher in Early April/Late March. The Bullish Engulfing formation was a sign that higher interest rates were coming TVC:TNX The 10 Yr Yield Downtrend was broken, it retraced some, we posted that it was likely consolidating, & seems to want to go a little higher. Central Banks worldwide are lowering rates while the US is raising them. --- Please see our profile for more info... We do post a lot.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$EUINTR - ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25bps (April/2025)ECONOMICS:EUINTR - ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25bps (April/2025) ECONOMICS:EUINTR April/2025 source: European Central Bank - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as expected, marking the sixth consecutive cut since June and bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%. Policymakers noted that the disinflation process is progressing well and dropped previous references to a "restrictive" policy stance, while cautioning that the growth outlook has worsened amid escalating trade tensions.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
BOC decision - trading the uncertaintyMarkets are narrowly leaning toward no rate cut from the Bank of Canada this Wednesday. Markets were pricing a 58% chance of a pause as of Friday last week. With traders nearly evenly split, short-term volatility in USD/CAD is possible. While the Bank had previously signaled it would "proceed carefully" on future rate cuts, that guidance came before the heightened risks tied to the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. From a technical standpoint, there are early signs the pair may be forming a near-term bottom. If the BOC holds rates steady, USD/CAD could retake its 200-day moving average, opening the door for a move toward resistance near 1.4100.
by BlackBull_Markets
Most likely path forward, Fed stops the bleeding in JuneLooking at this chart I can see a clear trajectory to 68k, though bulls may end up staving off that price until June when the Federal Reserve plans to meet and talk interest rates, which will most likely be lowered to stop the bleeding of the stock market. I predict, if they do, there may be a drop in BTC price right before the meeting so folks can get their discounted bitcoin. from www.forbes.com Now, as the chief executive of BlackRock warns bitcoin could end the U.S. dollar’s world’s reserve currency status, traders are betting the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. recession—something that could see the market “flooded” with dollars. BlackRock CEO Issues Huge $952 Billion Bitcoin Price Warning To The U.S. Dollar Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is having to recalculate the need for interest rate cuts after ... More U.S. president Donald Trump followed though on his threat of global trade tariffs—potentially playing havoc with the bitcoin price. Short-term interest-rate futures are showing a 70% chance of a Fed interest rate cut when it meets in June, up from about 60% before the tariffs were announced. That meeting is scheduled for June 17th and 18th. Shorting isn't a crazy idea for now, while hedging on short term upswings until we hit 68k.
Short
by neuromancer
$GBINTR - U.K Interest Rates (March/2025)ECONOMICS:GBINTR March/2025 source: Bank of England - The Bank of England voted 8-1 to keep the Bank Rate at 4.5% during its March meeting, as policymakers adopted a wait-and-see approach amid stubbornly high inflation and global economic uncertainties. The bank highlighted that, given the medium-term inflation outlook, a gradual and cautious approach to further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate. CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January, and while global energy prices fell, inflation is expected to rise to 3¾% by Q3 2025. Also, the MPC noted that global trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks increased, with financial market volatility rising. source: Bank of England
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
USDCHF Correction Due To Produce A Reversal Pattern?OANDA:USDCHF has been in a Correction Wave since the beginning of January and we now see that Price may have finally found Support at the 1.809 Fibonacci Extension Level of the Correction Wave. With both Lows in March finding Support at the 1.809 Fibonacci Extension Level, Price is beginning to form what looks like a Reversal Pattern, the Double Bottom! ** Confirmation of Pattern will come when Price Breaks and Closes Above .8863, then we will be looking for a Long Opportunity to present itself as a Break and Retest Set-Up. The Retest will Validate the Trade Idea! If we take the height of the Pattern and apply it to the Break of Confirmation, this puts the Potential Target at Previous Area of Support of the Correction Wave ( Point A ) in the .8975 area. Fundamentals seem to Support the Bullish Idea with: SNB Cutting Interest Rates by 25 Basis points from .5% to .25% FED Holding Interest Rates @ 4.5% due to "Economic Uncertainty" Unemployment Claims for USD came in as expected with no surprise and even 1K below Forecast ( Actual 223K / Forecast 224K ) Also Positive Outlook from Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales see USD rise. Next Weeks Final GDP on Thursday, March 27th will be the next big News Event to bring some light to how the economy is doing and if USD will continue strengthening!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci