S&P500: Balance sheet extends drop.Will interest rate peak soon?The S&P500 has been declining for more than two months straight reaching the HL trendline from the market bottom. It is useful to look into the Fed's role on this whole long term price action and what better timeframe to use than the 1W.
As you can see, the Fed's Balance Sheet (orange) is extending a long term decline that started more than one year ago, while the Interest Rate (teal) continues to rise. You don't need to go back any further than the 2018-2019 period, which was marked by the extensive trade wars between the U.S. and China. The key to recovery was when the Interes Rate peaked and flatlined. That was when the stock market bottomed and growth stability returned to the markets.
The recent (almost) two year inflation crisis has the market in an even more advantageous position as it's been one year since it recovered and priced the bottom, despite the fact that the Interest Rate is still rising. Theoretically when the Interest Rate peaks and turns flat, we should see a more stable stock market growth.
With the S&P500 on a HL support and the Balance sheet still dropping, do you think the Fed will pull the trigger and soon announce in one of their next meetings an end to rate hikes?
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Interestrates
Could a Surge in Mortgage Rates Imperil the Housing Market?Over the past 18 months, U.S. mortgage rates have soared from 2.9% to 7.6%, their highest since 2001. Will this tremendous increase in mortgage rates cause the U.S. housing market to crash like it did in 2008?
On one hand, higher mortgages have led to a steady decrease in the number of new mortgages being issued. In recent weeks, the number of new mortgages has fallen to its lowest level since 1995.
On the other hand, there is a major difference between today and the period leading up to the global financial crisis: vacancy rates.
Vacancy rates are extremely low. Before the 2008 financial crisis, 10% of rental properties and 3% of owner-occupied properties were vacant. Today, only 6.4% of rental properties are vacant, near their lowest since 1985, while owner-occupied properties have a record low vacancy of 0.7%.
Home prices have stopped rising, but so far, they aren’t collapsing. Over the past year, the price of buying a home in the U.S. has fallen by about 1%, while rental costs have risen by around 8% as higher rates force many would-be buyers into the rental market.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
AUDUSD DOWNTREND CONTINUATION FOLLOWING USD INTEREST RATES 09/23AUDUSD has been in a bear market July 2023.
Price stalled out and ranged since August 2023.
We have since seen bulls try to break out of this 3-month range and failed every time.
The resistance is around 0.6530, which is yet to be broken.
We recently have seen a strong rejection of that resistance following last weeks USD interest rates.
The Australian Dollar has been a weak currency in the basket of majors for several months this year and the United States Dollar has been getting stronger.
I am awaiting my trigger just below 0.64159 and am a bit late to the action so my P/L will not be as ideal as I planned but I will take what I can get and still be realistic with the target which is sitting at 0.6360 lows which is also where many longer term buyers may have their stop losses if the uptrend doesn't work out in their favor.
I will be utilizing a trailing stop loss along the progression of the trade and have my hard stop around today's daily highs in case it does not work out in my favor.
If the trade fails then the price may go back into chop or could be a possible reversal towards range highs of 0.64159.
US Housing flashing a warning Lower Low in price First time since the doldrums in 2011
The cost of a 30 year mortgage is astronomical
Mortgage demand has frozen ...
Refinancing has also fallen off a cliff
I'm looking for sellers to start capitulating soon ... (as in within the next few quarters)
As we start to see the consumer at breaking point.
Market Update - September 22, 2023
Bitcoin has an up-and-down week as Mt. Gox delays repayments: Bitcoin (BTC) started the week off rallying from $26.5k USD to $27.4k USD before paring its gains by Friday. Mt. Gox trustees delayed repayment of more than 140,000 BTC and other cryptos by a year, extending the deadline to October 2024.
Fed holds rates steady as one more hike expected this year: In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve held its target benchmark interest rate at 5.25%-5.5%. One more hike is expected by the end of 2023, with interest rate cuts anticipated starting next year.
Judge blocks the SEC from immediately reviewing Binance.US software: The SEC faced a setback in its case against Binance.US, as a judge blocked the agency from immediately reviewing the exchange’s software. A follow-up hearing is slated for October 12.
Optimism completes third community airdrop and plans private sale: Optimism (OP) airdropped ~19.4 million OP tokens (~$27 million USD) to eligible users. The team also announced a private sale of 116m OP tokens (~$162 million USD) to seven buyers.
🪂 Topic of the Week: Crypto Airdrops
➡️ Read more here
Dollar and Yield Favored Setup Leading to the FOMCThe Dollar and US treasury Yields are all showing signs of future strength leading to the FOMC meeting, as the EURUSD has slammed into Resistance with Bearish Divergence and PPO Confirmation, the Yields have hit a Shark PCZ with PPO Confirmation, and XAUUSD has once again hit the PCZ of a Bearish ABCD and will give us PPO Confirmation of a Type 2 Reversal once, and if it starts going down again.
ES FOMC INTEREST RATE IDEA (LEAKED FROM *SMART MONEY*)bullish idea, there's lots of space to the upside and plenty of orders to take off the initial news burst. as long as we move up follow the plan. if we move down, and only if you are not already in a position, i'd take smaller longs and add later only if it comes back to the initial idea.
if price falls to the depths of hell, well, fine. just short the first pull back and come off break even for the day and wrap it up no hard feelings. keep it easy guys it aint stressful for real.
delete this message after you read it they are watching your activity nvm this message will self destruct
Gold and weakness in breaking the 1930 zoneGold was not successful in trying again to break the 1930 range and entered the correction down to the 1916 range, and after the correction in the third attempt, I think this level will break and we will see the growth of the global ounce of gold until 1980.
MACRO MONDAY 10~ Interest Rate & S&P500MACRO MONDAY 10 – Historical Interest Rate hike Impact on S&P500
This chart aims to illustrate the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s Interest rate hike policy and the S&P500’s price movements.
At a glance the chart highlights the lagging effects of the Federal Reserves Interest Rate hikes on the S&P500 (the “Market”). In all four of the interest rate hikes over the past 24 years the S&P500 did not start to decline until 3 months into an interest the rate pause period (at the earliest) and in 3 out of 4 of the interest rate pauses there was a 6 – 16 month wait before the market begun to turn over. The move to reducing interest rates (after a pause period) has been the major warning signal for the beginning or continuation of a major market decline/capitulation. We might have to wait if we are betting on a major market decline.
In the chart we look particularly at the time patterns of the last two major interest rate hike cycles of 2000 and 2007 as they offer us a framework as to what to expect in this current similar hike cycle. Why is this cycle similar to 2000 & 2007?.. because rates increased to 6.5% in 2000, 5.25% in 2007 and we are currently at 5.50% in 2023 (sandwiched between the two). These are the three highest and closely aligned rate cycles over the past 24 years. The COVID-19 crash is included in this analysis but has not been given the same attention as the three larger and similar hike cycles 2000,2007 & 2023.
The Chart
We can simplify the chart down to FIVE key points (also summarised hereunder):
1. Previously when the Federal Reserve increased interest rates the S&P500 made significant
price gains with a 20% increase in 2000 and a 23% increase in 2007.
- Since rates started increasing in February 2022 we have seen the S&P500 price make a
sharp decline and then recover all those losses to establish an increase of 5% at present
since the hiking started.
- This means all three major interest hike cycles resulted in positive S&P500 price action.
- For reference, a more gradual rate hike pre COVID-19 also resulted in 20%+ positive price
action.
2. When the Federal Reserve paused interest rates in 2000 it led to a 15% decline in the
S&P500 and then in 2007 it led to a 28% increase in the S&P500. It is worth noting that a
lower interest rate was established in 2007 at 5.25% versus 6.5% in 2000. This might
indicate that this 1.25% difference may have led to an earlier negative impact to the
market in 2000 causing a decline during the pause phase. Higher rate, higher risk of
market decline during a pause.
- At present we are holding at 5.5% (between the 6.5% of 2000 and the 5.25% of 2007).
3. In the event that the Federal Reserve is pausing rates from hereon in, historic timelines of
major hike cycles suggest a 7 month pause like in 2000 or a 16 month pause in line with
2007 (avg. of both c.11 months). For reference COVID-19’s rate pause was for 6 months.
- 6 - 7 months from now would be March/April 2024 and 16 months from now would be
Nov 2024 (avg. of both Jun 2024 as indicated on chart).
4. As you can see from the red circles in the chart the initiation of Interest rate reductions
have been the major and often advanced warning signals for significant market declines,
including for COVID-19.
5. It is worth considering that before the COVID-19 crash, the interest rate pause was for 6
months from Dec 2018 – Jun 2019. Thereafter from July 2019 rates begun to reduce (THE
WARNING SIGNAL from point 4 above)…conversely the market rallied hard by 20% from
$2.8k to $3.4k topping in Feb 2020 at which point a major 35% capitulation cascaded over
6 weeks pushing the S&P500 down to $2,200. Similarly in 2007 the rates began to decline
in Aug 2007 in advance of market top in Oct 2007. A 53% decline followed. The lesson here
is, no matter how high the market goes, once interest rates are decreasing it’s time to be
on the defensive.
Summary
1. Interest Rate increases have resulted in positive S&P500 price action
2. Interest rate pauses are the first cautionary signal of potential negative S&P500 price action however 2 out of 3 pauses have resulted in positive price action. The higher the rate the higher the chance of a market decline during the pause period.
3. Interest rate pauses have ranged from 6 to 16 months (avg. of 11 months).
4. Interest rate reductions have been the major, often advanced warning signal for significant and continued market decline (red circles on chart)
5. Interest rates can decrease for 2 to 6 months before the market eventually capitulates.
- In 2020 rates decreased for 6 months as the market continued its ascent and in 2007
rates decreased for 2 months as the market continued its ascent. This tells us that
rates can go down as prices go up but that it rarely lasts with any gains completely
wiped out within months.
September – The Doors to Risk Open
We now understand, as per point 2 above, that an Interest rate pause is the first cautionary signal of potential negative S&P500 price action. Should the Fed confirm a pause in September 2023 we will clearly be moving into a more dangerous phase of the interest rate cycle.
Based on the chart and subject to the Fed pausing interest rates from September 2023 we can now project that there is a 33% chance of immediate market decline (within 3 months) when the pause commences with this risk increasing substantially from the 6th and 7th month of the pause in March/April 2024.
I have referenced previously how the current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread provided advance warning of recession/capitulation prior to almost all recessions however it provided us a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level (See Macro Monday 2 – Recession Timeframe Horizon). Interestingly September 2023 will be the 6th month of that 6 – 22 month window.
Both todays chart and Macro Monday 2’s chart emphasize how the month of September 2023 opens the door to increased market risk. Buckle up folks.
March/April 2024 – Eye of the Storm
On Macro Monday 2 – Recession Timeframe Horizon our average time before a recession after the yield curve starts to turn up was 13 months or April 2024 (average of past 6 recessions using 2/10Y Treasury Spread).
From today’s review of the Interest rate hikes impact on the S&P500, we have a strong indication that March/April 2024 will be key high risk date also.
Now we have two charts that indicate that the month of Mar/Apr 2024 will come with significantly increased risk.
Its worth noting a pause could last 16 months like in 2007 lasting until Nov 2024, at which point we would be pretty frustrated if we had been preparing defensively since Mar/Apr 2024. Just another scenario to keep in mind.
The Capitulation Signal
Based on today’s chart, should interest rates at any stage decline we should be prepared for significant market decline with immediate effect or within 2 months (at worst). Regardless of any subsequent increases in the market, these would likely be wiped out within 6 – 9 months by a capitulation. An optimist could run a trailing stop and hope it executes in the event of.
Bridging the Gaps
Please have a look at last week’s Macro Monday 9 – Initial Jobless Claims if you would like to measure risk month to month. The chart is designed so that you can press play and have an idea of the risk level we are entering into on an ongoing basis. In this chart we summarised more intermediate risk levels with Sept-Oct 2023 as Risk level 1 (yield curve inversion time window opens and potential rate pause risk increase) and Nov-Dec 2023 as stepping into a higher Risk Level 2 (as increase in Jobless claims average timeframe will be hit). Should the yield curve continue to move up towards being un-inverted and should Jobless Claims increase then Jan 2024 forward this could be considered a higher Risk level 3 leading the path to our Risk level 4 defined today which is March/April 2024.
Final Word
It is worth noting that the Fed could surprise us and start increasing rates again, they may also not pause interest rates in Sept 2023. For this reason I included the small black and red arrows that provide a general timeline across different rate periods to help us gauge a market top (red arrows) and a market bottom (black arrows). The black arrows suggest a time window of 27 – 32 months from now being the market bottom. A lot of people are focused on when a recession or capitulation will start, we may want to start thinking a step ahead and prepare for the opportunity that will present itself at a market bottom. Having a time window can help us plan and be psychologically prepared to consider taking a position in a market of pain and fear should the timing window align. If we are expecting this bottom in between Oct 2025 and Mar 2026, we can make more rational decisions when the streets are red.
We can try to make more definitive calls and decisions on an ongoing bases so please please do not take any of the above as a guarantee. We know the risk is increasing now and a lot of charts indicate incremental increases in risk up to Mar/Apr 2024, Nov 2024 and even January - March 2025. All of theses dates are possible trigger events but ultimately we don’t know. We are just trying to prepare and read the warning signs on the road as we drive closer to a potential harpin turn.
If you have any charts you want me to look at or think would be valuable to review in the context of the above subject matter please let me know, id love to hear about it.
PUKA
Understanding Interest-rates & InflationHey Traders
So, I have been asked by many of my clients to explain the relationship between interest-rates and inflation and how to translate that information into their analysis.
For this reason I put this little mini lesson together to explain:
- The core role of the central bank
- Reason and objectives for interest-rates and inflation
- How you can use this information to enhance your analysis
- How to take advantage of this info when taking, managing or closing your trades.
PS. if you would like me to do more of these types of videos be sure to leave a comment in the comment section.
Important week for EURUSDOn Friday we saw the expected correction and pullback.
This week is coming the most important news for the market at the moment.
US Interest rate is coming on Wednesday.
After the news we expect good opportunities and longer-term trades.
We're looking at the exhaustion of the downside move, as the first support is 1.0609.
Current levels are not suitable for new entries.
EURAUD SELLOFF FOLLOWING 09/14/2023 ECB INTEREST RATESI am not a fundamental trader but I do love when a major economic news event plays an impact on the market environment.
This entire month the markets have been very slow and choppy so I stood out of swing trades due to the whipsaw behavior.
This week has been the slowest following last weeks low movement with fed speeches on the economic calendar almost every day.
I had USDCAD shorts that actually just reached my profit target but I closed out earlier this week due to the bad conditions and missed the rest of the trade, I hope you all that followed the analysis benefitted from it more than I did.
On the technical side, I do not trade ranges unless big enough of a range so my only option for this pair was to wait for a confirmation of a breakout and trend continuation before getting active.
I now have a confirmed breakout that I am waiting on my entry to be triggered.
I gave my sell stops a little bit of room before being triggered to avoid potential whipsaws.
My entry is at daily lows below 1.6450 and I will be looking to take a +3R sell to July lows around 1.6330 but price could go lower as there are buyers stops stuck around those lows.
If my analysis is incorrect and my stop gets hit or my trade entry isn't triggered at all then this could signal further indecision in this pair or a possible bottom forming for a reversal back into the former broken range.
Conditions have been poor lately so I am shooting my shot and if this does not go as planned then I will be sitting out the rest of the month and looking for another opportunity in another pair/market.
New low on EURUSD Yesterday EURUSD broke the previous low and reached 1,0631.
The downside move keep going but we’ll be looking for exhaustion.
There will be opportunities upon correction towards 1,0700 and pullback.
The next support is 1,0609, where it is advisable to lower the risk of the sells and to look for reversal.
EURUSD before ECBYesterday during the news we saw fluctuations within 50 pips without clear direction.
ECB interest rate is coming today.
Bear in mind that there will be press conference 30 minutes after the news.
We’re watching for breakout of yesterdays move.
A key resistance remains the levels around 1,0785.
The Cash BubbleHistory repeats itself, and we should learn from it, however sometimes history is so far away that it spans generations before we're able to grasp the experience first hand.
We hear about 1929, but we can't imagine what it was to survive the struggle, we hear about the pandemics during the 20's, same deal, we have heard about recessions, and those who went through the big recession of 2008 triggered by the immobiliary crisis know better, some veterans from the dot com bubble, others from the Black monday in 87, and probably very few from earlier crisis. But I don't think anybody has gone through a halt in the economy due to a pandemic at the level we witnessed in 2020.
Let's put it in context, 2020 was an election year, the incumbent government was losing the battle against the pandemic and the halt in the economy. He had the support of the congress and the wallet at his will, the former President Trump flooded the market with freshly printed dollars in an attempt to reignite the economy as soon as possible, and let's say, it worked for the purpose of reactivating the economy and not having to wait for a painful period of a lengthy recovery, however this created an unprecedented scenario, a huge flood of dollars to the market. The biggest cash inflow ever in the history of the world. The M1 metric went to $7.2T, to put it in perspective, since the 60's this has been oscillating in the $480B to $580B in the 70's when Nixon cancelled the convertibility of the Gold and Paul Volcker had to apply unprecedented meassures to fight the stagflation that followed after the dollar became fiat currency. The M1 increased 120% from its 60's level, the increase after the housing bubble burst went from $668B to $1.5T, approximately 225%. After the COVID halt it went from $1.5T to $7.25 T, an increase of 485%, inedit scenario in the history of the United States.
The crisis sent the price of oil in the market of futures to a negative value, something that has never been seen, the unemployment reached record levels, the SP500 index fell to a range close to that when Trump became president, wiping off the rally that started shortly after that event, the inflation didn't react immediately, since this is a lagging indicator that reacts to the economy growth, and the access to currency.
The amount of printed fiat currency flooding the market created the immediate wanted effect, the economy jumpstart that put everybody to work and reignited the economic machinery, the unemployment started to go down, the inflation ticked up, still within range, the price of gold ticked up, the price of oil started to recover, also within range. However we witnessed shortly after that the inflation was not stabilizing, we witnessed the traffic jam at the ports of entry to the United States, lines and lines of cargo ships waiting to unload at the ports of entry, stuck there just idling. The news blamed the Evergreen ship that blocked the Suez Canal, and affected the distribution lines, but the truth was an excessive demand of products from the Pacific producers that overwhelmed the existing port infrastructure. This was the root reason that affected the production lines in the US and contributed to a galloping inflation. Also, during the recovery cycle, let's remember that one commodity in high demand is oil, since the world moves on it. We saw unprecedented gas prices at the pump. Presidents don't have the power to increase or decrease the prices of gas, that is pure supply/demand, but they can be blamed for increases or take the credit for decreases. In a high demand environment, oil goes along the demand cycle, that is why in a recovery environment the oil prices go higher. Let's remember in the 70's during the stagflation period oil was a highly valued commodity and people were making large lines to load gas. The prices were upticking fast and the media blamed the arab world for it, but it was mere propaganda, what really happened it was just an economy running freely on cash and jacking up the prices.
The Trump administration was at the peak of the economic cycle that started in 2009, with low inflation, full employment, low gas prices. After the pandemic the variables changed, the economy went to a sudden halt world wide, and in a desperate attempt to keep the presidency the administration authorized the humongous cash flow in an attempt to prevent the negative effects of the economy to affect the election. At the end Trump lost the election. The economy continued its extremely fast paced recovery path and it overshoot. The Fed chairman was purposely in "Denial" regarding inflation, neglecting it and calling it "transitory", which was more of a Greenspan "laissez faire" economic policy, let the wild animals in their "irrational exuberance" take over and later on we'll pick up the pieces and start the recovery process. This is how we got here now.
Where do we go from here?, that is an interesting question, the flood of cash should have been made in a way that there was a recovery but not a rampant inflation, however this would have taken longer and the previous administration was not willing to wait. We have an amount of cash that the economy hasn't been able to absorb. Money is supported basically by the productivity, the working force, the commercial transactions, but there must be a correspondence so the economic variables are kept in check. The GDP vs the M1 is still at an outstanding level. The inflation is heading to the 2-2.5% goal, we're still at full employment, which basically puts us in what the fed have been calling a "soft landing". Will it be?? I suppose initially it will, but we risk facing the same scenario that happened during the stagflation in the 70's, Paul Volcker had a big dilemma, he increased the interest rates, but the inflation was completely out of control, people noticed they could buy an asset and basically turn around and sell it at a higher price, and they still found a buyer. Houses were on the rise, the agriculture also participated of the inflation benefits, farmers could buy a tractor, use it and resell it at a higher price. People in New York City were waiting in line before the jewelries opened so they could buy gold, and sell it later at a higher price. When Volcker decreased the interest rates after the message he sent was of stability and it backfired and inflation was reignited.
Taking a look at the CBOE:SPX in the long run, we see there is a negative momentum divergence forming after it reached the All Time High (ATH). The indicators signal a downturn, that could possibly happen after the interest rates reach its pivot, the inflation is at the Fed Goals, unemployment goes beyond the full employment level and the economy shows signs of stalling.
Bubbles happen all the time, we enjoy the ride until they burst. We're in a new bubble, the Cash Bubble. The cash should be enough to allow the economy to support it having a healthy inflation level of 2%, as defined by the Fed targets. If there is too much cash and the economy is not able to support it, it will dilute automatically until the economy growth catches up. For decades the ratio of M1 to GDP has been between 9% and 18% as we can see in the chart. After the cash flood it peaked to 85% and currently it is at 68%. I don't think the problem is far from over, even if we reach the 2% inflation target. The challenge for the Fed now is to keep the interest rates low for longer without stalling the economy. It is rumored that the Fed will pause the interest rate hike for their September FOMC meeting. It is expected considering the recent increases have been in the 1/4 of a point followed by a pause. If the pause is prolonged, the inflation reaches its 2-2.5% target and the unemployment is kept within the 4-5% range then the fed can call it a "Soft Landing" up to this point which could be a telegraphed signal to start reducing the interest rates, and the financial market may anticipate this pivot to create a bear market and shake the tree to dislocate and reallocate assets at a discount using all the big cash flood out there. Next year is a presidential election year, and not making it a priority has happened before. During the Volcker's period, he didn't mind pulling the rug on Carter. The Fed does what it has to do.
"What has happened before will happen again. What has been done before will be done again. There is nothing new in the whole world."
~ Ecclesiastes 1:9
Patterns repeat because human nature hasn't changed for thousands of years.
~ Jesse Livermore.
References
Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country.
William Greider. January, 1989
How the economic machinery works. by Ray Dalio. youtu.be
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio. youtu.be
EURUSD awaiting the newsYesterday, EURUSD continued its correction and headed towards the resistance zone.
By the end of the week, data on US inflation and interest rates from the ECB are due.
Before the important news, it is not advisable to take a high risk and it is better to wait.
We have determined zones on all major assets and are monitoring development!
No trades on EURUSDEURUSD continues holding around 1,0700 and no still no entry grounds.
US inflation data is coming on Wednesday and ECB interest rate on Thursday.
Upon continuation of the correction resistance levels will be 1,0780 and 1,0846.
We will be looking for new trades after the news upon good ratio.
Navigating Forex Success: Mastering the Most Vital Fundamentals
Forex trading, the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, offers endless opportunities for profit. Yet, success in this dynamic arena hinges on a solid understanding of fundamental analysis. In this comprehensive article, we will explore the most crucial forex fundamentals that every trader should grasp. We will provide real-world examples to illustrate their impact and share how they can influence your trading decisions.
The Cornerstones of Forex Fundamentals
1. Interest Rates: Central banks set interest rates, which have a significant influence on currency values. Higher interest rates in a country can attract foreign capital, boosting the value of its currency.
2. Economic Indicators: Economic data releases, such as GDP, employment figures, and inflation rates, provide insights into a country's economic health. Positive data can lead to a stronger currency, while negative data may weaken it.
3. Political Stability and Economic Performance: Political stability and the overall health of an economy play a crucial role in currency valuation. Countries with stable governments and strong economic performance tend to have stronger currencies.
Real-World Examples
Example 1: EUR/USD and Interest Rates:
Example 2: GBP/USD and Economic Indicators:
Mastering the most vital forex fundamentals is essential for navigating the complex world of forex trading successfully. By staying informed about interest rates, economic indicators, political stability, and economic performance, you can make informed trading decisions and better understand the forces driving currency markets. With these fundamentals as your foundation, you'll be better equipped to seize opportunities and manage risks in the ever-evolving world of forex. 🌍📈💰
What do you want to learn in the next post?
RBA Rates Decision TomorrowThe RBA is set to decide on rates tomorrow, with the decision likely to hold cash rate at 4.10%
Last month when the RBA held rates, the AUDUSD dropped.
Looking for a similar move, especially with the AUDUSD trading along the 0.6465 support level.
A break to the downside could see price test the next support level of 0.6380
How does the interest rate affect the markets?How does the interest rate affect the markets?
We often hear in the news that the market is rising or falling after decisions or some statements by the Fed. We also often talk about the dollar index, so let's use simple words and with a cheat sheet at the end of the video, I'll show you how it works SP:SPX BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
What is the FED
The Federal Reserve is a network of financial institutions that together make up the central bank of the United States of America.
Why is the Fed cutting rates?
When the economy is not doing well, the FOMC can make interest rates lower, encouraging people to take out loans and stimulate economic activity.
What happens when interest rates rise
Central banks raise rates when there is a high risk of recession and stagflation (high inflation, very low GDP growth)
The higher the rate, the more expensive money is for banks and, as a result, loans become more expensive for the entire economy.
A rate cut means a reduction in the cost of loans.
Bitcoin, due to its large capitalization, has become highly correlated with traditional markets
A change in the rate affects the entire money markets. An increase in discount rates leads to a decrease in the cost of bonds and an increase in yields across the entire class of fixed income instruments. Bank deposit rates go up, and bond yields go up for investors. And vice versa.
Use this cheat list like visualisation of potential market upcoming moves
Analyzing Bitcoin's Popularity: The Potential for Corrections 📊🚀 Bitcoin's Soaring Interest: We've witnessed Bitcoin's meteoric rise to fame, drawing attention from investors, institutions, and the general public. Its surging popularity has been nothing short of remarkable.
📈 The Price-Interest Conundrum: Here's the intriguing part – when Bitcoin's popularity skyrockets and the mainstream media begins touting its merits, it often coincides with a phase of rapid price escalation.
📉 The Correction Potential: What history has shown is that these periods of intense interest and price surges can also be followed by corrections – temporary pullbacks in price. This is a natural part of Bitcoin's volatile journey.
💡 Insights for Investors: Understanding this relationship between popularity and corrections can be valuable. It's a reminder that even in the world of crypto, markets don't move in a straight line. Corrections offer opportunities for patient investors.
🔮 Predicting Corrections: While it's challenging to precisely predict when a correction will occur, heightened interest can be a signal to stay vigilant. It's a reminder to approach the market with a balanced strategy, combining optimism with caution.
In conclusion, the surging interest in Bitcoin is a testament to its growing significance in the financial world. However, it's essential to recognize that popularity doesn't guarantee a one-way ticket to perpetual gains. Corrections are a healthy part of Bitcoin's price discovery process.