XAUUSD Short 1000 Pip Move IncomingDear Ziilllaatraders,
We can see daily candels being sold showing strong selling pressure. This due to latest inflation numbers, showing an increase.
Here is Why:
When inflation rises, it signifies that the general price level of goods and services in an economy is increasing. This can lead to concerns about the erosion of purchasing power, as consumers and investors need more money to buy the same amount of goods and services. In response to higher inflation, central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, may consider implementing tighter monetary policies to control inflation and stabilize the economy.
One of the primary tools that central banks use to control inflation is raising interest rates. When a central bank raises interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive. As borrowing costs increase, consumer spending tends to decrease, which can slow down economic activity. Additionally, higher interest rates make it more attractive for investors to hold the local currency, as it offers better returns compared to other currencies or assets.
Expectations of Higher Interest Rates:
When inflation rises, there might be expectations that the central bank will respond by increasing interest rates to counteract inflation. This is done to make borrowing more expensive and to cool down economic activity. These expectations of future interest rate hikes can make the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors seeking higher returns.
Attractiveness of U.S. Dollar:
If the U.S. dollar is expected to offer higher yields due to potential interest rate hikes, global investors may shift their investments towards the dollar. This demand for the dollar can drive its value up in comparison to other currencies.
Gold as a Safe Haven:
Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset that investors turn to during times of uncertainty or economic instability. When the U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen due to potential interest rate hikes, some investors may choose to shift their investments away from gold to capitalize on the potential gains from a stronger dollar.
In summary, the relationship between higher inflation numbers, expectations of interest rate hikes, and the value of the U.S. dollar can influence investor behavior. If investors believe that the U.S. dollar will become more attractive due to potential interest rate increases, they might shift their investments away from assets like gold (XAUUSD). As a result, the increased demand for the dollar and decreased demand for gold can lead to a drop in the value of the XAUUSD currency pair.
if rumors are true we are going to see a big drop.
Greetings,
Ziilllaatrades
Interestrates
$TNX higher now than when banks began to failEdited the graph from Apollo a bit.
Red arrow is when most treasury #yields were hitting new highs.
Blue arrow is current time. Chart is 2Yr #Bonds.
TVC:TNX was putting in a lower low at the Red arrow BUT it is higher then before at the moment, Blue arrow.
Graph shows how #bankruptcy filings began increasing late last year, slowed during #interestrates falling, but now increasing as rates have gone up again.
Yields Surging / TLT FallingThe technical weekly uptrend that yields have formed is rather astonishing.
The sheer power of this move suggests likely more upside yields. Some basic measured moves suggest a potential whopping 5.7% on the 20 year.
Imagine TLT long bond traders!
Nothing is probable but it makes you wonder if inflation is becoming more entrenched since the bond market is very forward looking.
EUR, GBP Rebound Against Dollar as Inflation Trends DivergeEuropean currencies have been rebounding strongly versus the U.S. dollar since hitting bottom in late September 2022 during the Gilt crisis when yields on U.K. government bonds surged. The rally in European currencies accelerated in July 2023 following the release of the U.S. inflation statistics (Figure 1).
Figure 1: EUR and GBP have rebounded strongly in recent weeks and months
Recent U.S. and European inflation data are highly divergent. U.K. core inflation has climbed to above 7%. Eurozone core inflation has risen towards 5.4% while the U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) has been falling towards 4.8%, down from a peak of 6.6% last year.
What’s even more remarkable is that the divergence between U.S. and European inflation rates is much stronger when one measures it in a consistent fashion. The U.K. and European Union (EU) use a “harmonized” measure that is consistent across Europe. The harmonized measure includes rents of actual rental properties but, unlike the standard U.S. numbers, does not assume that homeowners rent properties from themselves. Excluding the so-called owners’ equivalent rent (OER) from the U.S. numbers makes a huge difference. At the moment, the assumption that homeowners rent properties from themselves has exaggerated U.S. core inflation to the tune of 2.5%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics produces what they term an “experimental” harmonized measure of core-CPI that gauges inflation the same way as in Europe and therefore excludes the OER component. This shows core inflation in the U.S. to be 2.3%, far below European levels and trending lower rather than higher (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Measured consistently, U.S. core inflation is half to one-third European levels
This suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), which appears to be preparing a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike on July 26, could soon have its policy rate at more than 3% above the level of harmonized core inflation (Figure 3). Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE), which just raised rates to 5%, still has rates more than 2% below its rate of harmonized core inflation (Figure 4). The European Central Bank (ECB) has its main refinancing rate at 4%, 1.4% below the level of the eurozone’s harmonized core inflation (Figure 5).
Figure 3: Fed Funds now exceed harmonized U.S. Core CPI by 3%, the most since 2007
Figure 4: The BoE’s policy rate is still 2% below inflation
Figure 5: The ECB has its policy rate 1.4% below Eurozone core inflation
The differences in the level of real rates (policy rates minus harmonized core inflation) suggests that the Fed may have overtightened policy and may need to reduce rates sooner than expected by market participants. By contrast, those same measures suggest that the European central banks may still be behind their inflation curve and may need to tighten policy even more substantially. Indeed, forward curves have moved significantly in the direction of this thinking in recent weeks and now price just 25 bps more in rate hikes for the Fed compared to 75 bps for the eurozone and 125-150 bps in the U.K.
Elsewhere, the U.S. yield curve is much more sharply inverted than yield curves in the eurozone or the U.K. This may also lead currency traders to look past the Fed’s last expected rate hike and towards possible rate cuts if monetary overtightening produces a downturn in the U.S. sooner than it does in Europe.
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By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
EURJPY in Focus: ECB Hikes and the BoJ’s Yield Curve ControlChristine Lagarde's remarks about an open-minded ECB, coupled with a robust labor market and persistently high inflation in the eurozone, continue to provide the ECB with reasons to lean towards hiking. While headline inflation may be trending downwards, core inflation remains steadfast in the eurozone. Following the meeting on July 27, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, elevating the key interest rate to 4.25%—its highest level since 2008.
Interestingly, the U.S. seems to be leading the way in this regard. Inflation and core inflation peaked earlier in the US, and the Federal Reserve has been raising rates more rapidly than the ECB. Given that the EU's inflation rates remain higher than those in the US and that the unemployment rate in the EU is still low, further hikes by the ECB appear plausible—especially considering that the U.S. continues to hike, albeit at a more advanced stage.
Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) garnered attention by widening its yield curve control band, signaling a move towards policy normalization. Yet, markets remain skeptical. The subsequent whipsaw move placed the USDJPY pair at levels higher than those before the announcement.
The yield differential between the EUR and JPY interest rates exhibits a positive relationship, with the EURJPY appreciating as the yield gap widens. With the previous yield differential increase resulting in a 21% rise in the EURJPY, the currency pair's current 14% ascent seems to have room to grow further, particularly given the larger yield difference compared to past instances. However, it's worth noting the 1999 – 2000 period, where the yield differential increased, but market reactions lagged significantly.
From a technical perspective, we observe the EURJPY breaking out of a 30-year symmetrical triangle, often interpreted as a bullish continuation signal.
Upon closer examination, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the market is not yet oversold, and the moving average cross still favours upward trajectory.
In conclusion, the ECB's potential inclination towards continued hikes, combined with market skepticism over the BOJ's recent moves, could lead to a stronger EUR and a softer JPY. A suitable strategy to capitalize on this view might be to take a long position in CME EURO/JAPANESE YEN Futures, quoted as Japanese Yen per Euro Increment. Entering at the current level of 156 with a stop at 152.5, and a take profit at 168, would provide a reasonable risk-reward ratio. It's worth noting that each 0.01 Japanese yen per Euro increment move equals 1250 yen.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
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The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Looks to be Bottoming OutMoney that has been parked at the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility due to the attractively high interest rates the Fed has set for money parked there has been on a steady decline since late 2022, and recently, this year we confirmed a breakdown of a Bearish Dragon, which led to a BAMM move down to complete a Harmonic M-shape.
This then represented an influx of liquidity exiting the facility and effectively hitting circulation, which led to that money chasing assets and commodities. This chasing of assets and commdoities effecctively backed the 2023 Stock Market Rally.
The target I had set for this move was down to the 0.886 of a Bullish Bat and now months later we can see that we came very close to it, but it would seem that rather than getting a full 0.886 retrace we are instead getting a confirmation-styled RSI reaction as price Bounces from the 1.618 Extension, which just so happens to align with an AB=CD formation it's made on the way down.
I see this as an indication that the liquidity will soon stop flowing out from the facility and that liquidity will now begin to flow back to the facility, effectively taking money out of circulation, which would likely result in a decline in asset prices and a decline in the trading of Short Term Debt on the open market, which could then lead to Short Term Yields rising overall along with the US Dollar as institutions once again begin to lock up their dollars in this facility and chase yield rather than assets.
Recently, I have been seeing a lot of weakness in the banking sector. That weakness may act as a catalyst for these institutions to once again park their money with the Fed, just as it did before. As always, my target for an ABCD is back to the Level of C, so we should see this rising back up about 30% before we can start looking for signs of this topping out again.
EURUSD after FEDYesterday, the FED raised rates again by 0.25%.
The ECB is due to announce today whether it will do the same by 0.25%
Today's news is at 15:15 Bulgarian time, and the press conference 30 minutes later.
EURUSD looks like it has already bottomed out and is starting the next uptrend.
We are watching for a higher bottom and confirmation of the upward movement.
The unpredictability of the FOMC rates decisionWhat you would learn in university: An interest rate hike increases demand, which would lead to higher prices.
What you actually see in the markets: The impact on price is not only dependent on the interest rate decision but also the message and sentiment during the press conference, priced in scenarios, future market expectations, economic projections, current price trends, global environment...
Overnight, the FOMC has just taken rates to a 22-year high at 5.50% and indicated further increases in September and possibly November (data dependent), and yet the immediate reaction is further weakness in the DXY.
Over the previous 6 rate decision releases (5 hikes and 1 hold), the reaction on the DXY has been mixed, either spiking up briefly before fading lower or showing little to no movement.
Scalping the news event is getting harder and potentially less profitable (unlike back in the years with Chair Bernanke). The approach short-medium traders should consider adopting is to let the noise clear out and only look to get their trades in days after the event.
What do you think?
GOLD TO TEST SUPPLY AT $1980Gold price is higher above $1970 during early New York trading session ahead of the Fed. Fed Powell’s speech will be crucial for gold buyers as 0.25% rate hike priced in. XAUUSD tested 1950 support and bounced yesterday which opened the path to $1970. However, a supply zone from May, around $1983 - 1987, appears a tough nut to crack for the XAUUSD bulls. We will be looking for Fed Powell press conference later today for trading opportunities.
EURUSD before FEDInterest rates will be announced by the FED today.
The news is at 21:00 Bulgarian time, and the press conference 30 minutes later.
The only thing certain before the news is that there will be big fluctuations.
Therefore, it is advisable to reduce the risk on active positions and not to hurry with new entries.
The main option where we will look for trades is on a break below 1.1000 after the news and pullback.
🔥 Bitcoin In Danger 🚨 Bearish Divergence Playing Out!Last week I made an analysis on BTC's bearish divergence on the 3-day chart. Seeing the bearish price action we got recently, it seems that this bearish divergence is playing out well.
In my eyes, it's very likely that BTC will go down from here onwards. Next target is the dotted purple support line.
Seeing there's another FOMC interest announcement tomorrow, Bitcoin is in danger of breaking through said support in case the market doesn't like tomorrow's meeting. In that case, my expectation would be that the top for 2023 is in.
All eyes on tomorrow.
Stocks, Rates and Inflation: Assessing Risks and OpportunitiesOver the last year, there have been increasing concerns about threats to the US and global economies, mainly due to all the rate hikes from the Fed and other central banks. However, these fears have definitely not played out, as consumer spending and business hiring have shown surprising durability in the US, despite rate hikes and inflation.
Several factors explain the stock rebound since mid-2022:
- Bearish positioning left room for a short squeeze as negative expectations didn’t play out at all. Attention has returned to quality large-cap technology firms leading in AI development like Google and Microsoft, as their innovations promise productivity gains that support growth.
- Ongoing passive investing inflows, corporate buybacks, past fiscal stimulus, and excess savings, the Fed and Treasury generating shadow liquidity, China and Japan keeping rates low and stimulating, the massive deficits of the US government (investors know the US is essentially ‘broke’).
- Inflation coming down is also boosting stocks, as stocks are mainly valued based on inflation, not interest rates.
- The Fed might have finished its hiking cycle or might have one last hike left. Current rate expectations are indicating that rate cuts will come by early 2024.
While earnings seem to be plateauing from peak levels, profitability remains healthy overall. GDP growth remains positive and revised higher, the US economy keeps adding jobs and the unemployment rate remains at record lows.
Global challenges persist, as supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures from the Ukraine war might come back at any time, despite having significantly subsided. Demographic trends of aging populations in developed countries also drag on labor force expansion and economic growth. High debt loads worldwide likewise limit stimulus options without leading to inflation or instability.
While inflation has moderated, it remains elevated and sensitive to many factors, from geopolitical instability to climate change. More concerning, inflation has eased without a clear link to the Fed’s policy tightening. It’s improbable that the Fed hikes were the ones that pushed inflation from 9.1% down to 3%, as rate hikes act with long and variable lags. This is raising doubts about the Fed, it's forecasting, and its monetary policy’s effectiveness in controlling inflation over the long term, especially as their current super-tight interest rate policy could lead to catastrophic deflation and recession.
Given rising recession risks, the Fed will likely be forced to reverse course and start cutting rates by the end of 2024. This policy whiplash carries risks of its own, as we currently seem to be heading toward a deflationary shock, which might be followed by another inflationary wave. With massive deficits, the Fed also faces constraints from high-interest costs on debt even as its policies try to restrain growth and inflation. The economy isn't a simple dial the Fed can turn on and off. What’s even more concerning, is that the Fed is essentially trying to suppress wage gains and cause unemployment to curb inflation, which is something that could induce an inequality-worsening spiral.
In our opinion, a more balanced approach recognizes that moderate wage growth won’t spur runaway inflation, especially as technology evolves work. The policy should prepare workers for automation and AI through training programs, not just reactively responding to lagging data as it is currently doing. The Fed’s constraints highlight the need for creative solutions to complement monetary policy. The economy is a multifaceted system requiring diverse policy responses.
With vision and flexibility, emerging technologies like AI have immense potential to broadly uplift living standards. But this requires inclusive policies and acknowledging the economy's dynamism. The future likely holds turbulence, but with strategic foresight productivity gains can be harnessed for the benefit of all.
Despite concerns over rising rates, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for stocks. Many investors have grown excessively bearish and underestimate the market's upside potential. Sentiment and positioning remain bearish and cautious, with most investors underestimating all the positive headwinds for stocks, especially productivity gains from AI, falling inflation, falling rates, and currency debasement.
Crucially, the rally since mid-2022 has not been fueled by leverage, unlike past bubbles. Margin debt levels decreased last year, reducing systemic risk. The market has a strong foundation to build on gains, especially as most unprofitable tech has been clobbered and hasn’t recovered, unlike US tech behemoths. Big tech and AI stocks are leading the way higher, forming a new monopoly built on network effects and immense scale. Their nearly unassailable competitive advantages will drive growth for years to come.
Although in the short-term sentiment has turned bullish, hence a 10% correction is possible, we don’t think that a new bear market is in the cards until stocks make new all-time highs.
In conclusion, while risks remain, the US economy has proven resilient amid rate hikes and inflation. Productivity gains from AI innovations, coupled with prudent and flexible policymaking, can support continued growth and market gains if properly harnessed. Investors should look through short-term volatility and maintain a constructive long-term outlook.
Expanding Bull FLAG #BTC ... with 3 targets...Take your pice of the targets :)
all in a healthy spot from where we are now
Traders are expecting 0.25 fed hike on Wednesday ... a continuation of the pause in rates could see us break this bull flag
3 targets based on bottom of the flag, midline of the flag and top of the flag
Let's go!
🔥 Bitcoin Indecision Ahead Of FOMC MeetingComing Wednesday there's another FOMC meeting by the FED. Here they will announce what the new interest rates are going to be. While the FED paused last meeting, the expectation is that they will announce another rate hike.
My expectation is that BTC will continue to consolidate around the current area, while traders are patiently waiting for the FED's decision. Furthermore, BTC's volatility is extremely low, which indicates that it's preparing for a big move, either up or down. See below for the volatility analysis, currently 3 days in a row extreme low volatility:
As seen on the chart, BTC is trading at a very strong area of resistance. The top resistance is an exact copy of the bottom support, creating a parallel channel. With the stock market severely overbought, the market risk is likely to the downside.
As long as BTC stays above the yellow support line, the intermediate trend is bullish. A break below this trend line could signal that ~31.8k was the 2023 top.
Are you bullish or bearish ahead of the FOMC? Share your thoughts 🙏
EURUSD correction continuesInterest rates from the FED and ECB are coming up this week.
This will determine the next move in EURUSD.
After reaching 1.1274, a correction was initiated, which we expect to continue until the news.
The next important support is at 1.1004.
We will be watching for a pullback from these levels and buying opportunities.
$APPL -Buy Opportunities - Apple Inc. ($APPL) nearing Support Trendline of its Rising Channel.
Looking for long opportunities in the short-term,
remaining positive TA speaking until the upcoming Earnings Report.
Until 3rd of August positive momentum has captured $APPL ;
(may be interreupted from Feds upcoming week Rate Hikes Decision)
SL is adjustable from here, with the nearest point being the last
Higher Low market structure,
or the previous ATH depending on your risk apetite.
Until the next one;
trade smart
TRADE SAFE
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor
before considering partaking any trading activity based solely on this Idea
Harmonically, US Interest Rates are Headed Toward 35%The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we are to treat the action of this chart as we'd treat any other chart, then we'd expect that once B gets broken, we'd get an accelerated move all the way up to the Harmonic Completion of a Bearish Shark, which would land us at the 1.13/1.618 Harmonic Confluence Zone up at around 34-35%
There have been previous instances where Harmonics have had a predictive quality over data like this, such as the accelerated liquidity exit out of the reverse repo facility, the bond yield charts on multiple occasions, and the US Inflation Rate Charts. Which can all be seen in the related ideas tab if you are skeptical of my use of Harmonic Patterns in this context.
EURUSD continues its correction Yesterday EURUSD reached the support zone but didn’t give a chance for buys.
USD interest rates is coming next Wednesday.
We often see sideways movements before important news.
We’re not looking for new trades at the moment and we’re waiting for the correction to continue.
Yields, Rates, & the US Dollar $DXYThe 3 & 6Month #yield look similar. The 3M looks just a tad better.
The 1 & 2Y ear look very similar RECENTLY. However, the 1Yr is higher than the #BankingCrisis highs.
The 10Y TVC:TNX gave a lot back but it's @ support here. Could have some sort of bounce here.
But the most interesting chart is of the TVC:DXY US #Dollar.
It looks like it wants to bounce here.
Will #yields go with it?
More Downside for DXY?Last week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release of 3% (Forecast: 3.1% Previous: 4%) indicates that inflation growth has slowed significantly, likely due to the compounded effect of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
This slowdown in inflation growth has also improved market sentiment that the Fed Funds Rate has reached its peak at 5.25% and the likelihood for further rate hikes has diminished.
With the DXY breaking below the round number level of 100 and reaching a low, last seen in April 2022, further downside can be expected.
However, watch out for the possibility of stronger-than-expected US retail sales data. A sustained rebound is unlikely, with the 100.85 resistance level likely to cap the upside potential.
Confirmation of further downside could be signaled if the price breaks below 99.45, with the price likely to trade toward the next key support level at 97.75.
Dollar Weakens After FED AnnouncementsAs of now, the FED interest rate decision has been announced and the FED has kept the interest rate constant. In addition to keeping it steady, Powell still made harsh and hawkish statements. Personally, I have question marks in my mind about how full these explanations are. Because now the job is not just to reduce inflation and most business sectors have started to break. I don't think it can go on like this.
If we are talking about interest rates, the only factor we need to look at is the dollar index. The dollar index has technically formed a descending triangle. The level to be seen in a down break will be $ 98.
DXY D1 - Long Signal (relief rally)The US Inflation data came in with another surprise lower, declining faster than expected. The Core CPI YoY slowed down to 4.8% in June, down from 5.3% in May. This is the lowest core inflation print since October 2021. This is also the biggest drop since January 2021. On the other hand, the US CPI YoY dropped to 3.0% down from 4% during the same period, posting the lowest reading since March 2021 and the biggest drop since May 2020. The data was enough to shift market expectations significantly. Prior to the data, markets were pricing in the possibility of 3 more rate hikes before the end of the year, now markets are pricing in only one more rate hike in July’s meeting.
The US dollar index declined sharply right after the inflation data announcement, breaking multiple key support areas, reaching as low as 100.40 by NYSE closing bell, which is the lowest daily close since April 2022. In addition, the index posted the biggest daily decline since November 2022. With this daily close, it’s safe to say that the downside trend has resumed. Since expectations shifted significantly, the index is now pricing in one more rate hike before the next easing cycle. The next support area stands at 100.0 psychological support, which should be watched carefully, as buyers are likely to appear.