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Interestrates

Correlation study: 10-year real interest rate vs. AAPL (1983 - )Apple share price (AAPL) plot above, inverted real rates (0-REAINTRATREARAT10Y) plot below + 1M 200ma, from 1983 to 2023. Results: -Strong inverse correlation with 10-year real interest rates and AAPL share price. -Real rates < 2 % positively correlate with stronger AAPL returns. -10-year real interest rates bounced from the 2 % level in September 2022 ... May 2023. "‘John Bull’, says someone, ‘can stand a great deal, but he cannot stand two percent. . ." - Walter Bagehot, 1852
FRED:REAINTRATREARAT10Y
by Smitty61
1
The Roller Coaster is always a Bumpy ride 🎢The Market can feed everyone but it's not not the market's duty. The market's duty is to provide a playground for a fair auction to take place. The conditions and the rules at the playgorund change from time to time but principles never cease to exist. The market needs liquidity to trend and it's the losing trader's emotion that fuels that. The market will achieve it's own goals just as mother nature and the dragon of time will eat us all. The market is a neutral entity and not one of us as participants are immune to it's wrath. Respect the market as it can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Pay close attention to money management and/or Position sizing because it will help you attain your goals. With all that said I have outlined my favorite level's on the chart. There are traders buying the high and the market will not make it easy on them. Or maybe the market breaks everything like the night king in Game of thrones. All you should do is take good risk/reward ideas. Create a system suited towards your personalities and inclinations. Orient yourself to what is most comfortable but be pro-active with your entries. Cut your losses short and let you profits run. Don't cut your winners just because you want to be right about the direction. Pay yourself for the time you spend in front of the screen. I have other obligations but the way I would go about trading interest rates would be to wait 1Hr after the news. Once the market has decided the direction, I lower my position size and follow my system's entry technique for trading with momentum. Additionally, If the market reacts off one of my level's I will anticipate a double top/double bottom. Safe Trading.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
$DXY - 'ABC' Waves Completed - The Dollar Index TVC:DXY seems to have completed Wave C of its A-B-C Elliot Waves Correction, today on ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed's announcement. TVC:DXY must hold the lows of Wave C at 102.6 and 1 level of Fibb' Zone, otherwise, its macro downtrend from 114 High will be printing another Bearish Lower High This, however, would be a fantastic opportunity for The Financial Markets to explode more on their uptrend resumptions . TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking in any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
🔥 FED Pauzing Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of a couple of minutes ago the FED has announced that they will pauze the interest rates and not hike any further. Since rising interest rates seems bearish for markets, a pauze is often a much more bearish signal. As seen on the lower chart, once the FED pauzes the hiking cycle ('flat mountain top'), it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future. With the most recent pauze, one would be cautious for the future at the very least. Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
SP:SPXShort
by FieryTrading
19
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC – 14/06/23 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ll start by saying we’ve had a decent week so far as well as month and will not be wanting to give anything back to the market. For that reason, we’re sharing the levels we have for the potential move and the regions to look for a reaction in price. It is expected to move, especially during the press conference which will take place after the statement. We would say best practice is to wait for them to take the price where they want, let is settle and look for signs of a reversal before jumping into a trade. We’ve seen a big range forming here over the last few weeks which has been used to accumulate orders, maybe now enough for Gold to find its feet and make the move many traders are anticipating. We have the immediate levels of 1950-55 order region which we are now above and potentially looking for the price to settle pre-event around here. We have the higher levels of 1980-85 which we were looking for on the KOG Report so target region for longs that are held from below could be around that level. If price is driven up into that region, we would be looking for resistance higher to potentially see a reaction in price and a confirmed reversal before even attempting to short it. On the flip side, we have order region 1930-35 and below that the extreme level of 1915-07 on the break. If the price is driven down, then we will potentially be looking here for a reaction in price and upon confirmed reversal signs look to take the long trade back up. As we’ve said above, we’re sharing our view with everyone but please do your own research. We’re not likely to enter any new trades, rather let the runners we have open run or close at break even. The best trades and set ups will come once the price has been taken to it’s level. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
USDJPY FOMC Prep 14th JuneIf the FOMC does pause on further rate hikes as forecasted, this is likely to cause further weakness in the DXY (read DXY analysis) Weakness in the DXY could see the USDJPY trade lower. The USDJPY has been range bound since the start of June, trading between the resistance of 140.40 and support of 138.74. Currently trading along the 140 price level, weakness in the DXY could see the price reverse lower, back down to the support level. Similar to the price action on the 5th of June. A surprise rate hike from the FOMC could see the USDJPY rise, but the upside would be limited with the next key resistance level around 141 (the previous swing high at the end of May) and also with the increasing belief that any surprise rate hike would be the last to come from the FOMC.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
DXY Outlook FOMC Prep 14th JuneWill the Federal Reserve finally decide to pause on further rate hikes, keeping interest rates at 5.25%, or will the Feds hike rates one final time to take rates to 5.50%? There has been much speculation about the likely outcome of the US FOMC regarding its interest rate decision. Especially with the most recent CPI data being released at 4.0% (Expected 4.1% Previous 4.9%) a significant slowdown in inflation growth is being witnessed and it is likely to play towards encouraging the Feds to pause on further hikes. Although the June unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%, the NFP was still significantly stronger than expected at 339k. There are several technical analysis factors applying the downward pressures on the DXY, in particular, the downward trendline, 50MA and the 103.40 resistance level. If the Feds does pause on rates, I'd be looking for the DXY to trade down to the support area of 102.80 and 103, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
EURUSD before FEDCPI data came out yesterday and EURUSD hit the 1.0800 resistance and is holding at those levels for now. Today we await the most important news. At 20:00 Bulgarian time, the FED will announce the decision on interest rates, and 30 minutes later the press conference will begin. Regardless of the decision, we will see large fluctuations and it is advisable to reduce the risk beforehand. The objective remains confirmation of the upward movement here, with possible stops in both directions.
by ForexTrendline
3
Ultimate Catalyst : Interest Rates NewsWe saw our increase on Eurusd Halted after the Fed raised rates 3 weeks ago. Now we gain more information on the reasons for their decision. The market has had time to digest the rates and resulted in a substantial decrease for the month of May. We must now observe how the market reacts to their reasons for an increase in rates and the cost of money. Will the dollar continue it's momentum and we see a Eurusd decrease, or will Eurusd pivot bullish in the short term as it digests the Fed's reasoning's. Bear Targets for the rest of May and the month of June are - 1.06654 Weekly Zone - 1.05426 Weekly Zone Bull targets for the rest of May are - a return to Daily level 1.08725 Bull targets for the month of June are - a return to 1.1024 weekly level - a push to 1.14655 Weekly level
by ShrewdCatfx
The Quiet before the Storm 🪁 : Eurusd With the close of the Daily candle in the next 1.5 Hours, Longs would prefer a candle closure above 1.0782. This would confirm another Higher High in market structure. In an uptrend price creates Higher Highs and Higher Lows. If this occurs then we can anticipate a bottom wick ( Higher Low) and then a consequential new bullish candle push to the upside back towards 1.0813 daily resistance zone. At this current time price is Bullish on the weekly timeframe and has broken the previously week's candles high. The Daily timeframe will print the second bullish candle of the week which was expected in my previous analysis. FOMC tomorrow will cause quite the stir. FOMC could cause Eurusd to easily dip back to retest 1.0746 Daily support level before continuing it's ascent or going into a volatile range. Price has reached my bullish target for the week which was 1.0813 ( a 65 pip increase ). CPI data has resulted in Higher High on the 1Hr timeframe. Price ended up pulling back and correcting the increase made during London session. We currently sit above our Daily S/R level 1.0782, late NY session Tuesday. New Bullish target for this week with fomc : 1.087 Daily resistance zone The way CPI data distributed at 1.0813 makes me think. We reached my weekly target 1.0813 before schedule. We had an initial increase in price and I'm sure some players bought the high and are now holding drawdown as we move into FOMC tomorrow. If I was a buyer I would consider getting out for B.E. because the Daily candle is closing in 1.5 hours with a significant top wick. Larger than the body of the bullish candle at least. New Bearish target for this week with fomc : 1.06915
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Is the Worst OVER? This is the differential of 10yr vs 1yr US bond which represents long term against short term yield on sovereign debt, and those you don't know, short term bonds are used by central banks to control interest rates(amazing uh? the FED does not actually print money) therefore they do use bonds as a tool to control interest rates which then controls the S&D of capital. As you can see, we are back at a differential which is extremely low, back to energy crisis levels. However, we seem to be already at very low levels, does that mean THE WORST HAS COME? What is going to happen to the stock market? A very quick and personal thought to sum everything up as I do not consider myself an expert macroeconomist: the market is efficient, meaning that the current price on every single security is traded at all the current public information that is available and if something keeps going up, it means that expectation are in favor of it moving higher. Hope that explains what I wanted to say, Feel free to ask question, be safe!
TVC:US10Y
by EWFAlessio
US 10Y yield chart - key levels to watch ahead of dataWe have a big week of data US inflation figures are released tomorrow and are likely to show a continued disinflationary trend, with the headline rate falling to 4.1%. This will help the Fed remain on pause for the Wednesday rate decision. The major level to watch to our mind is the tentative downtrend drawn from the October 2022 high. This comes in at 3.88. The market has been sidelined for months but is building a potential bullish consolidation pattern and that idea will be reinforced should a close above the 3.88 downtrend be seen.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would be expecting to adapt our plan over the week as we were expecting the range and choppy price action to continue. We suggested sticking with the same plan and levels from the week prior which worked very well to give us the trades within the range. The short-term swing we were expecting for the move to the downside came in the later part of the week after we managed to take the long trade back up into range high giving us a short opportunity we wanted. So, we wanted to short down, then long up before shorting down, instead, we got the long up, short down and long up. A decent week on the markets again but a very frustrating range to have to deal with. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we can expect some more choppy and whipsawing price action during the first half due to FOMC being on Wednesday. We’re expecting them to want to clear the voids and grab liquidity from the highs and the lows, so for that reason we’re going to start by suggesting we continue to scalp the range for the first initial sessions while we assess the price action. We’re then going to be looking for the two key levels to hold price, either from above to go short, or, from below to go long. Key levels are the order region 50-55 with the break below taking us into 30-35 previous order region which are levels we would expect to see a reaction in price. Resistance levels now stand at 80-85 key level and above the institutional level 90-95 which price needs to remain below for this to continue with another decline. So, in summary, we have a potential range now forming between 40-45 support and the resistance levels of 80-85 with extension into 90-95 for the spike. Scalps in-between with KOG’s bias of the day and the levels with the view to take the longer position from the levels illustrated on the chart. Its going to be another difficult and frustrating week to navigate so please exercise patience in your trading, wait for the price to come to your levels, don’t force the trades just to be in the market. Always remember, cash is also a position in the market. We’re going to take it easy until FOMC, smaller lots and smaller captures before we hunt for the trade of the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
23
EURUSD Technical Analysis: Preparing for CPI and FOMC Impact.Hello Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, our focus will be on the EURUSD pair as we seek a selling opportunity around the 1.08 zone. Previously, EURUSD was experiencing an uptrend and successfully broke out of it. However, it is currently undergoing a correction phase and approaching the retrace area at the 1.08 resistance zone. It is important to also keep an eye on the CPI data scheduled for release next week, specifically on Tuesday. This data will serve as confirmation for the trade. If the CPI comes in above expectations, it suggests that the Federal Reserve still needs to work on increasing interest rates in their upcoming monetary policy by Wednesday, which could trigger further strength in the US dollar. On the other hand, if the CPI numbers are within expectations, this may lead to USD weakness as Federal Reserve Chair Powell may lean towards postponing a rate hike. Let's monitor the situation closely and trade wisely. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
24
Further Upside for the AUDUSDThe RBA surprised markets by hiking rates 25bps, taking interest rates in Australia to 4.1%. This decision saw the AUDUSD rise steadily from the 0.66 price level up toward the 0.67 resistance level. As the price maintains above the bullish ichimoku cloud and the 200MA signals further upside potential, look for the AUDUSD to break above the 0.67 resistance level to trade up toward the next resistance and round number level of 0.68. This move higher would need to be supported by further weakness in the DXY (checkout DXY analysis in the link)
Long
by JinDao_Tai
DXY Outlook (7th June 2023)The DXY had seen significant volatility, reversing strongly from the 104.70 price level, down to 103.40 (which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). This is due to the recent speculation over further interest rate hikes to come from the Federal Reserve. As the likelihood of further interest rate hikes eases, this is likely to bring about some lower volatility, but possible downside on the DXY. Currently trading below the 104 level and with the 200 MA and the recent swing point of 104.36 providing near term resistance, the DXY is more likely to trade lower from this level. If the price breaks below 103.85, the DXY is likely to trade down to 103.40, with the next key support level at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, between the 102.80 and 103 price area.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
Bank of Canada Interest Rate DecisionThe USDCAD traded lower, since the start of June, reversing from the 1.3650 price level, now hovering along the 1.34 price level. Over the last couple of days, the USDCAD had been in a narrow downward range. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is due to announce its interest rate decision. With the current rates at 4.50%, there has been speculation that a surprise rate hike could be decided (similar to what happened with the RBA and the AUDUSD). However, I think that the data might not support such a surprise, with the BoC likely to maintain its current interest rate level. This is likely to cause the USDCAD to trade higher, from this current area of 1.34 toward the immediate resistance level of 1.35.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
2
AUDUSD Weekly Forecast CashRate | 4th June 2023Fundamental Backdrop RBA Gov Lowe mentioned "Very Much in Data-Dependent Mode on Interest Rates", "Monetary Policy in Restrictive Territory" This means that the RBA is closely monitoring economic data and could potentially continue increasing interest rates CPI y/y also increased from 6.3% to 6.8%, this shows inflation is still on a strong rise which can lead to an increase in interest rates. Cash Rate on Tuesday expected to maintain at 3.85% Technical Confluences Near-term resistance level at 0.66196 Next resistance at 0.67860 Near-term support level at 0.65220 Idea If the RBA chooses to maintain its cash rate at 3.85% on Tuesday, we could see the AUD drop towards the near-term support at 0.65220. However, if the unexpected occurs and the RBA chooses to increase its interest rates, we could see the price rise above the near-term resistance level at 0.66196, before heading towards the next resistance at 0.67860. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
1
Positive NFP Data for the USDNFP May 2023 - 339,000 jobs have been created. While this sounds like a good thing, it’s also a bad thing. The entire point of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates was to ‘slow down inflation’ by making people lose their jobs, in turn leaving them with less disposable income to flood back into the economy. What this NFP data shows is that the current interest rate hikes aren’t working, so this will now be another excuse for the Federal Reserve (really the US government) to be more aggressive with rate hikes, which will end up destroying the economy. This’ll create higher unemployment rates, higher mortgage rates (people default & lose their homes) & higher poverty. This’ll have a knock on effect on the global economy such as the U.K. World Economic Forum - “You Will Own Nothing & Be Happy”
TVC:DXYEducation
by BA_Investments