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$BTC $170K by Halloween 2023, believe it. If the same technicals of growth, volatility, and previous lows and highs math estimates are correct, then as strange as it may sound, Bitcoin is 23% likely to reach $170,000 by Oct 31st 2023. Not to mention the fertile environment for Bitcoin given; 1. The recent turmoil in the regional banking world and the lack of trust of the banking system being reinforced. 2. The decline of BTC in 2022 was arguably related to the massive interest rate hikes by the Fed, and they (The FED) are now likely to stop raising rates due to #1. 3. The correlation btwn Gold and Bitcoin has re-emerged in recent weeks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jgeno
SP500 vs FedFund vs Unemp vs Yield CurveUS stocks vs the Federal Reserve Funding Rate vs the unemployment rate vs 10yr-2yr treasury yields. When the 10yr vs 2yr yield goes negative it means that a 2yr treasury bond is yielding more interest than a 10yr treasury bond and it is also known as a yield curve inversion. The red vertical lines in the chart are drawn from yield curve inversions which are usually followed by the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, a rise in unemployment and US recessions. We're currently in a yield curve inversion that has gone more negative than the inversions just prior to the Covid panic, the 2008 financial/housing crisis and the 2000 dot-com bust which were all accompanied by record stock market losses. Maybe this time will be different...
SP:SPX
by PrepForProfit
1
Gold gets a safe-haven bid as banks shake confidenceFinancial markets were sent into a tailspin on the news of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) imploding. Despite the decisive moves by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)1 and the Federal Reserve (Fed)2, market confidence has been shaken and we have witnessed a flight to safety. Demand for government bonds have risen sharply, driving the yields on 10-year US Treasuries down from 4.0% on 9/3/2023 to 3.4% (16/03/2023). In tandem, gold prices have risen 6.6% in the past week (9/3/2023 to 16/03/2023). The speed of gold’s moves indicates that the flight to safety has not been obstructed by any broad-based liquidity issues. Very often in the initial phases of financial market stress, investors sell gold to raise cash to meet margins calls on futures positions in other assets or for other liquidity needs. The current crisis appears different in that there are no visible signs of panic gold selling and that could be indicative that the stress in certain parts of the banking sector are idiosyncratic. Nevertheless, investors have been reminded that unexpected events occur with greater frequency than they hoped and have sought to rebuild defensive positions that will help to hedge against further turbulence. Credit Suisse concerns add to investors desire for defensive hedges The Credit Suisse debacle unfolding quickly on the heels of SVB highlights that when confidence is shaken in one part of the banking sector it can easily spread. All banks, deposit takers, brokers and lending institutions with weak metrics are under the microscope. A liquidity life-line offered by the Swiss National Bank on 16/03/2023 has allayed markets fears for now, but we believe that investors are likely to continue to seek defensive assets in this time of uncertainty. Either tightening or losing monetary policy could be interpreted as a policy mistake. Gold is there as a hedge. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 50 basis points on 16/03/2023, marking a bold move given the fragile state of market confidence. However, blended with dovish commentary, markets are expecting less rate rises in the future and believe the 50 bps hike was delivered only because the ECB felt like it had pre-committed and any smaller hike would signal conditions are worse than what the market has priced in. The Euro appreciated against the dollar and the Dollar basket depreciated, providing further support for gold in Dollar terms. While the jury is out on whether the Federal Reserve will pivot its monetary policy early (note the Federal Open Committee meeting is on 21st and 22nd March), investors are seeking to protect themselves with hard assets. If the Fed doesn’t soften its hawkish stance, it risks transforming a bank liquidity issue into a recession as risk appetite and confidence has been shaken. If the Fed does act either by terminating quantitative tightening or prematurely ending the hike cycle, the central bank’s monetary largess will linger for longer. Either way, gold is likely to benefit. Gold tends to do well in recessions and is seen as the antithesis to central bank created fiat currencies. Gold gains are well supported We therefore expect gold to hold onto the past week’s gains in the is time of turbulence. The key short-term risk for gold at this stage is not market confidence recovering quickly, but a broader market meltdown that could drive gold selling to raise liquidity for meeting other obligations (such as margin calls). In that scenario, gold is likely to recover in time as other investors will buy the metal to shore up their defensive hedges. Sources 1 The FDIC provided more than its usual $250,000 insurance on deposits. 2 The Fed created a new liquidity tool - Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) - offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral.
COMEX:GC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
How FED / ECB Interest rates set trendsWatch how interest rates decisions set trends in EURUSD and Dollar Index impacting the entire forex market. I marked all the previous interest hike decisions by FED and ECB. 2023 EURUSD bullish reversal was triggerred by ECB starting to raise iterest rates (after EUR hit the alarming 1.00 level). EUR might continue bullish until next tow hikes. From what I read ECB does not plan to hike rates for the rest of the year after May meeting (rates will stay at 4), so it is likely to trigger bearish reversal from May. Likelwise, 2020 EUR bullish ride (and dollar weakness) was triggerred by FED lowering interest rates (in March 2020) after COVID hit. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Good luck in your trading! God bless!
Education
by ICFX
Possible Crash to 1410? (Alternative Bias)Everyone who has been following us since last year, knows we are bullish on Gold & are still holding buy positions from 1600's. We also have a sell position open from 1953 as a hedge against our buys. However, after seeing price action on Gold recently I believe that there is a possibility for Gold to crash lower towards $1410-$1370 over the next 2-3 years. If you look at the 2 week TF, you can see that Gold reached Wave 3 ($1,920) back in 2011, following a peak of Wave 5 ($2,075) in 2022. If this is correct, we should now see the market crash back as a correction towards the $1400 mark. This also makes sense from a fundamental perspective. If the Federal Reserve keep hiking interest rates over the next year, this'll weaken Gold prices, while strengthening the US Dollar. This analysis is only valid as long as Gold remains below the last high of $2070.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
2
$TNX US02Y are CRATERING, Yields falling hardLast week we mentioned that #yields cratering like they did was not normal. Currently they are all at support with $TNX holding better than short term yields. The 10Yr has BOUNCED a bit off support. In a positive note it does lessens the inverted Yield curve :D We'll see how this scenario holds. What's happening today is more SPECULATION than anything else. The belief is that the #fed will stop raising rates due to the the bank closures that are happening. IMO I don't think it'll stop them but MAY slow them down a bit. The Fed Reserve HAS to pick between #economy & #stocks. While the Fed has been friendly to equities and markets in the past its main concern in the US Economy. They also care about the US #dollar.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DJI has HUGE BUY volume the last few hours$DJI bounce decently off support on daily charts. This may take some time to heal. However, IF #stocks can hold for the next few hours it can be okay. The only reason it's not pumping higher is $GS & $JPM, #banks. On the 4Hr we see a DOJI formed MORE than 4 hours ago & on the CURRENT 4 hr candle it is being ENGULFED WITH VOLUME. We want to see a close above 32k but higher will mean more conviction. The belief is that #rates will take a pause while we have this bank fiasco happening. 32500 is our full exit point. Although we have been loosening positions in this rally for the last couple hours. Would keep re-buying lightly on pullbacks. Bottoms can take some time to form.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Side-step a potential storm!Just when we thought the hawkish narrative was pretty much priced in, SVB’s fallout basically threw a spanner into the hiking cycle. You’ve probably read quite a lot about the whole SVB debacle since Thursday’s trading session so we won’t harp on that. We instead want to turn your attention to two other markets that moved significantly since the SVB episode. Interest Rates & Gold. A sharp repricing has occurred in the expected rate path as markets digest the onslaught of SVB-related events. As a result, we saw the probability of a 50bps point hike jump from 30% to 80% and then back down to 20% as of today. Additionally, further rate hikes have also been priced out indicating market’s expectations of a more cautious Fed. Most importantly, the implied aggressive rate cuts starting from the end of 2023 caught our eyes here. As a reminder, the last time the fed paused and then cut rates, Gold responded with a 60% rally. As the potentially lower terminal rate and faster pace of rate cuts narrative begin to pick up momentum, we think Gold deserves more attention now than ever. The next FOMC meeting is only 10 days away. From there, we will get a sense of what the Fed thinks of the current situation. If they start to show signs of retreat from their hawkish stance, we believe it will be a catalyst for this trade. Another point of worry is economic data still coming in hot, at least for now. For those not keeping count, Non-Farm Payrolls numbers have beaten estimates to the upside for the past 11 months as the economy remains unusually strong. With the next set of CPI numbers coming out this Tuesday, a hot print could drive inflation worries further. If the Fed shows signs of easing on the hawkish narrative while Inflation numbers continue to be hotter than expected, higher Inflation expectations could once again drive investors into inflation-protecting assets like Gold. Key volatility gauges have pointed higher over the past few days and major indexes have edged closer to key price and technical levels. Given these, volatility is likely to compound from here as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) potentially flip sides and funds rotate out of the banking sector. In such uncertain times Gold’s status as a safe haven asset could attract flows as investors sidestep the market turbulence. Looking at the price action, Gold still trades well clear of the 500 Day EMA mark which has marked the support for the price action and well clear of the 1800 physiological level. RSI is still middle of the road indicating that there is still room for Gold to run higher. Gold’s relationship with interest rates and position as an inflation-hedge/safe haven asset could very well position it for further upside from here. For now, we think it provides enough upside to sidestep the potentially volatile times ahead. We set our stops near the previous level of support and the 0.618 Fib level, 1755, and our take profit levels at 2065. Each 0.1-point increment in COMEX Gold future is equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
1
EURUSD Struggling 1.05860. Previous Key level. We can observe that price is pulling back after fed speech caused us to fall off a cliff. This was expected. A Bullish Argument would be buy Daily Support as we reject 1.05428 and NFP data tomorrow will catapult us back up to 1.0646. My bias remains bearish because of the weekly timeframe. Price has corrected 40% of the move on Tuesday. If that is a deep enough retracement or not idk. What matters for me as a trader is good RR Ideas and operating off key levels.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
USDCAD Outlook 9th March 2023Overnight, the Bank of Canada (BoC) released its decision to hold interest rates at the 4.50% level. This was in line with the overall market forecast. However, the decision to hold rates saw the Canadian Dollar weaken (while the DXY remained on its bullish uptrend), resulting in the USDCAD claiming new highs, testing the 1.38 resistance area. If the DXY gains further strength and breaks out to the upside, the USDCAD could first retrace briefly to test the upward trendline, before continuing to climb higher, with the next key resistance level at 1.39. Alternatively, if the price action develops to signal a rejection of the 1.38 resistance level, the price could retrace down to the intermediate support level of 1.3740.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
DXY Outlook 9th March 2023On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve was ready to speed up interest rate increases, if warranted by incoming data. This was a reversal to what the market had expected, with most speculations regarding a possible pivot on the current monetary policy to slow down on future rate hikes. This headline news saw the DXY strengthen significantly from the 104.60 price area, breaking beyond 105, to reach a near-term high of 105.88. While Chair Powell's overnight testimony saw the DXY retrace briefly to retest the 105.36 support level, this move was unsustained and the price rebounded from the support. Currently trading at the 105.65 price level, and with no major news for the US today, the DXY will likely consolidate along this range for the short term, between the 105.36 and 105.88 price levels.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Oil prices caught in dollar's game, ahead of NFPOil prices are like a game of poker right now, with players trying to figure out what everyone else is holding. There's the China reopening story, OPEC's card tricks, SPR releases and refills, and the dollar's royal flush. It's a high stakes game, but the pot is huge! Traders are watching NFP and CPI data like hawks, looking for any tells that might indicate which way oil prices are headed. Powell's hawkish comments have only upped the ante, with the markets going all in on a 50-point rate hike. Will they be able to bluff their way to a win? For now, oil prices are stuck in a tight range of 73.00 to 82.50, like a hand with no pairs or straights. But there's still hope for a lucky break! You could try raising the stakes by buying a bounce off of the 73.00 level or buying a break of the 82.50 level. If you're feeling lucky, why not both? A break above 82.50 could mean a jackpot, while a break below 73.00 could signal a bust. So grab your lucky rabbit's foot and get ready to play the oil price game! Keep your eyes peeled for any new cards on the table and you just might hit the jackpot.
TVC:USOILLong
by natron
1
NFP week and -0.10% Japan interest rate thoughtsJapan interest rate is at -0.1% vs UK interest rate 4% Where will large funds being swinging to, for better yields? Is there a possibility that an investor from Japan borrows money from local bank at very low interest rates, invest it in foreign asset classes for profiteering purposes? What will happen to the desirability of Japanese Yen vs other G7 currencies with higher interest rates e.g. Europe, USA, Canada, Switzerland, Australia & New Zealand? Technical wise, beautiful consolidation taking place above H1 Imbalance, slowly creating bullish structure. Guess what will likely transpire this/next week? Having said that, several US high impact news this week and NFP Friday. Its going to get rough and wild. By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
Long
by XeroAcademy
2