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Interestrates

All Eyes On Fed Funds Rate 🏛Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. I am not a fundamental expert (nor an economist) but I found FEDFUNDS chart really interesting! I never thought that basic technical analysis tools can also be applied to such economic instruments! As per my last analysis (attached on the chart) FEDFUNDS traded higher and broke the red wedge pattern upward. Now we are technically bullish, expecting big impulse movements to push price higher, and small bearish correction movements. We all know that Federal Reserve will most probably increase the interest rates by another 50 basis points (0.5%) next week (on Wednesday) By adding another 0.5% , FEDFUNDS will be approaching a strong resistance zone in blue (4.7% - 5.7%) which might hold the price down for a bearish correction to start and push price lower till the previous high in gray again. It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this one. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by TheSignalyst
18
As we approach the last Fed/ECB meetings of the year.Last week, while the Federal Reserve changed its rhetoric from ‘hiking to fight inflation at all cost’ to ‘slow the pace of rate hike’, seismic waves rolled over the markets. As we approach the last central bank meetings of the year, the ECB meets on (15th Dec), Fed on the (14th Dec). A temperature check on the expected path of rates for the 2 major central banks would give us a good sense to position ourselves. The Fed After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech last Wednesday at the Brookings Institution in Washington, one line in particular (“The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”) shifted the market’s perspective. With the USD weakening further and terminal rates repricing slower and lower than expected, markets seem to have priced in a 50-basis point hike by the Fed in its December meeting. A slowdown from the back-to-back 75 basis point hikes we have come accustomed to. As noted in the chart above the EURUSD pair has generally moved alongside the dollar direction, should the dollar continue its tumble downwards, the EURUSD is likely to trade higher. The ECB After raising rates by 75 basis points in the last meeting to 1.5%, the ECB still faces mounting inflation. Market expectations still swing between a 50 to 75 bps hike for the upcoming ECB meeting as the Eurozone still struggles with high inflation. The ECB may also have more headroom to maneuver as current rates remain below the expected terminal rate and the 200 basis points hike still pales in comparison to the Fed’s 375 basis points move. However, we do have to caveat that intricacies matter here, for example, the inflationary effects in the US are largely driven by the demand side, while in the Eurozone are driven by supply-side effects. Regardless, the next few days will remain key for any policymaker comments to guide the markets as the meeting date nears. Policy timing and direction uncertainty put the EURUSD pair on our watchlist. The last time the 2 central banking policy timelines diverged, we called it out on one of our previous ideas. You can check out here . Additionally, we spot an ascending triangle pattern on the chart which generally signifies a bullish continuation. With the previous ascending triangle breaking out in a textbook manner, we will watch if the current setup trades the same. Prices have also broken a previous support-turn-resistance level, which could prove as further conviction of the upward move. With a clear technical setup and the potential for the ECB to surprise hikes to the upside, we lean bullish on the EURUSD pair. We set our stop at the 1.0440 level, and take profit level at 1.0900, with each 0.00005 increment per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equal to 6.25$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.cmegroup.com www.ecb.europa.eu www.federalreserve.gov
CME:6EZ2022Long
by inspirante
9
Exciting Times for $ Denominated Pairs!In this video we look into DXY structure and how this is so exciting for a few USD pairs. Generally across the board on the HTF we are seeing lots of corrective patterns completing their moves. These are nearly always followed by large impulsive movements in the market which are fantastic to capitalise on. USDJPY and GBPUSD see some clear impulsive phases beginning and we forecast how those entries may present themselves. Whilst we have to remain impartial, the Macro perspective on the $ looks like we could see some weakness and the £ seems like we could see some strength. This look particularly good for GBPUSD. If the markets are pricing the future rate hikes in this coming week then we could see some big movements. If not, we might be looking at some corrective behaviour until 14th December. This will be a very interesting week, for sure. Please comment below and engage with the post - would love to hear your thoughts.
by jakecarling41
GOLD SHORT TO 1687 (MID TERM VIEW)💥:Even though we are bullish on Gold long term, I still believe there's a chance that we could be entering a Wave 2 correction, which could lead into 2023🤔 If you look at the chart, you'll see market has or is just about to finish its 5 wave impulse move, which would mark the completion of Wave 1. This should technically be followed by Wave 2 correction, which should cross back below 'Wave IV' in order to count as a healthy retracement. This gives us the chance to target 1690-1670. This leading into 2023 means Gold will have the chance to grab downside liquidity which is required, before shooting up towards new ATH's. Not just that, a possible hedge position from the 1700 level also allows us to sell towards 1570, if Gold was to break below 1660. 🔴This analysis is only valid following a break below 1758. If confirmations not met, just let Gold carry on soaring🔴
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
Q. How do you work out CFD Interest Swaps with an example?Q. How do you work out CFD Interest Swaps with an example? Answer: CFDs is an instrument where you pay a small amount of money to be exposed to the full value of the share. With CFDs, there are daily charges when you buy and daily income interest that you receive when you sell (go short). The charge is known as a ‘daily swap’ or ‘daily interest charge’. You can ask your broker what the annual interest swap rate is or you’ll most likely be able to find it on your platform… With my broker for example, the long swap (for when you buy) is -9.47% per year. And the short swap (for when you sell) is 2.71%. With your Shoprite trade, because you’re buying CFDs (which is a geared instrument), you’re essentially borrowing the money from the bank. This means, you have to pay interest on the borrowed funds (in order to be exposed to the full value). Those are the ‘swaps’ we’re talking about. Let’s say the Shoprite share is trading at R223.19 and the margin (initial deposit) to buy 1 CFD is 9.7% (R21.70). This means, when you buy 1 CFD for R21.70, you’ll be exposed to the full R223.19 worth of the share. If you buy 100 CFDs and pay R2,170 (100 CFDs X R21.70) you’ll be exposed to the full R22,319 worth of shares (100 shares X 223.19). And if you sold the 100 CFDs at R236.00, you would have been exposed to R23,600. On that R22,319 exposure, you’ll pay 9.47% (R2,113.60) interest (swap) per year. But luckily as traders, you don’t need to worry about paying the full amount, as we like to hold only for a short period of time. This means, each day you hold the CFD with exposure of R22,319 – you’ll only pay R5.49. (Exposure of your trade X 9.47%) ÷ 365 days. If the exposure never changed and you held onto your trade at the same share price you would pay R54.90 (after 10 days). However, we know that share prices move up and down each day. The higher the market goes up, the higher your exposure where you’ll pay slightly more. If the market price drops, you will pay slightly less. However, as traders we don’t tend to hold for more than a couple of days or weeks to curb the daily interest charges. If you have any other questions please ask in the comments :) Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
DXY Bias Week Nov. 27- Dec 2BIAS-SHORT until next level 105.40-105.00 then monitoring that area for PA. NOTES- Currently fundamentals is against the dollar due to fed meetings on looking to slow down interest rates in the near future. Our next interest hike is on December 14. Will the feds keep up the 0.75% basis hike or will it be 0.50% this time around ? If the feds slow down interest hikes and our last final interest hike for Dec 2022 is lower than the previous hikes, we can expect the dollar will fall. Im expecting them to keep the 0.75% in December ending the year off with the dollar pushing back up to around 110.00- 112.00
TVC:DXY
by thefxgirl
XAUUSD H4 - Short SignalXAUUSD H4 - May look a little bit messy on the face of things, but from swing low data 03/11 up towards swing high dated 16/11, we have started to correct, TP seen from recent analysis yesterday before then climbing higher, but this falls short of our 382, we have since seen a pullback to our H4 break and retest zone (that we have yet to have). From current price, if we see a bounce off DXY support (105 ish) we could see XAU fall further downside towards our 618 target price of $1680. Concerns over this on a fundamental front based on recent headline "The Fed concluded it will "soon be appropriate" to reduce the pace of rate increases, minutes of the November meeting showed. At the same time, some officials noted that the peak rate will be "somewhat higher" than previously expected.". But on a technical front it looks attractive, lets see how the dollar support holds, this may be an opportunity if resistance holds here and DXY D1 support holds.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade_Simple_FX
Ok, here comes the Fed Pivot, what's next?With all the chatter on the Fed Pivot, we think it’s worth exploring, what happens after a Fed Pivot or Fed Pause. Let’s break down the discussion into two camps, a Fed Pause, defined as a pause in policy rate hikes, and a Fed Pivot, loosely defined as reversal of policy rates aka rate cuts. To keep things in context, we will look at the effect of the Fed’s Pause/ Pivots on Major Indices, the Dollar and Inflation rates. First let’s review where we are at now. The recent release of the October CPI numbers has spurred 3 notable things: 1) It knocked the dollars off its unprecedented rally since the start of the year. 2) It has given a little more credibility to the slight downward shift in inflation, with 2 consecutive lower readings. 3) It marked a local low in major equities indices Naturally, the question is, have we bottomed? Or is this a slight breather on the elevator down… To answer this question, we look at 2 similar periods in the past, where the fed pauses, then cut rates after. These past examples could be useful in providing some clues as to where markets might be headed next. Dot Com Period in 2000 Between June 1999 and May 2000, rates were raised before taking a 7-month pause, following which rate cuts ensued in Jan 2001. During this period, equities turned lower, with the DJI falling another 30% while the S&P & Nasdaq another 40% before finding the bottom. The bottom was only in when the dollar clearly broke its uptrend, inflation peaked & turned lower and after rounds of rate cuts. In fact, and somewhat eerily, the dollar broke close to the 108 level, almost exactly where the dollar broke its current uptrend. The Great Inflation of the 1970s In the 1970s episode, rate hikes were paused from Aug 1973 to Feb 1974 before a cut in 1974. Untamed inflation forced the fed into another hiking cycle from March 1974 before the final onslaught of cuts from July 1974 onwards. This rate pause was then followed by another over 30% decline in equities. Again, we find that the bottom was only in after Inflation peaked and the Dollar clearly broke its uptrend, while the Fed cut rates. If this framework of using the Dollar, Peak Inflation & Rate levels holds, a keen observer might note the similarities with what we are looking at now. So, if the current dollar break holds and Inflation truly peaks, then the Fed Pivot will be the last piece of the puzzle to mark the bottom. So, when will the Fed Pivot you might ask? Using the CME FedWatch Tool, we see the market implied probability of a fed pause starting in May 2023, followed by a pivot in September 2023. In our view, this is still quite far away and if historical precedence holds, there are still ways to go before we are close to call the bottom. Additionally, market timing and expectation of a rate pause and cut have continually been re-priced higher and further over the past year. We will not be surprised if the timing and level of pause and cut get repriced unfavorably again after the FOMC minutes release this week. From a price action perspective, the S&P seems to be near the upper band of the channel in which it has been trading since the downtrend started. This could once again prove to be an area of resistance, which could present an attractive short compared with the other 2 indices. The average of the past 3 declines from the upper to lower band range, took roughly 54 days and 700 points. Taking that as a benchmark, we set our stops at 4150 index points, close to the previous levels of resistance, and a profit target at 3500 index points, close to the average of the past declines and lower band of the channel. Each Index point is 50$ on the CME E-Mini S&P500 Futures contract and $5 on the CME Micro E-Mini S&P500 Futures. We will watch with keen eyes if the Dollar breakdown holds and listen for any change in the Fed’s timeline. If history is any guide, we remain bearish on equities, given the uncanny level of dollar index, inflation peak and Fed's policy path as we see now. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.forbes.com www.thebalancemoney.com
TVC:SPXShort
by inspirante
34
NZDUSD range bound, with RBNZ on the horizonOn Friday, the NZDUSD traded with significant volatility as the price surged strongly to the 0.62 resistance level but failed to break above, ending the trading week at the 0.6150 price level. Early in the trading session today, the NZDUSD is trading lower with the potential to reach the 0.61 support level. Look for the NZDUSD to break the 0.6120 interim price level to signal further downside potential toward the 0.6070 key support level. Watch out for the RBNZ interest rate decision on the horizon, with a 75bps rate hike expected, this could bring significant volatility to the NZDUSD.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
HAS THE DOLLAR REACHED ITS PEAK? AND WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?If you check correlation with other assets, be it Gold, stock indices, other currencies or commodities, you will see how they are massively correlated (from 60% to even 95%) with gold. This, first of all, tells you that 1) basically all your investments depend on the answer to this question as the dollar is the king of the markets now and 2) trading XAUUSD Long and EURUSD Long means basically entering the same trade (with implications on risk management and diversification) According to the info we have now, not only the reversal point from the FED is far (the point at which interest rates will be decreased), but we also not at the interest rate peak yet (which should be 5% in March 2023 according to the corresponding future price). It is true that markets are ahead, but in this case, it seems they are too ahead. According to this. and as shown in the chart, I expect that, with the data we have so far, the DX could easily be in the retracement phase before reaching the ATH again or even beyond. BTW, the dollar index DX can be traded directly in the platform as per my description or indirectly via any of the instruments highly correlated with it (basically all).
TVC:DXYLong
by edutradinguru
US Inflation Rate, YoY, Double Top? - Long-term ViewPresently, the inflation rate in the US has started falling, which increases expectations for a pivot - end of interest rate hikes. And factually, we can actually expect it. The supply of M2 Money Stock (M2SL) and its annual growth rate are decreasing. The global economy is shifting, as leading economic index (LEI) indicate. This will undoubtedly put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, after the current crisis, the economic recovery will cause a recurrence of inflation. So, if that is the case, the next decade will be marked by tight monetary policy and high inflation. This situation will let the central banks introduce a new monetary system based on CBDCs using incentives such as cheaper credit. Check also my related ideas. Enjoy
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MichaelFX_ICT
US interest rate, and exchange rate of Japan Yen and Korean WonThe trend of Japanese Yen and Korean Won within most of year 2022, as can be observed when reading together with the chart of USinterest rate, show how closely linked their relationship are. Recently government of relevant countries have been attempting to change this situation by putting money into the foreign currency exchange market, but as long as interest rate of each of those countries aren't increasing accordingly, and US interest rate still keeping up, no change in this trend is expected.
by PhakeNick
2
GBP/USD analysis: BoE hikes needed to curb gilts' term premiumFinally unveiled, the UK government's Autumn Budget was conservative and cautious, in line with market expectations. A fiscal consolidation of £55 billion has been announced, to be split evenly between more taxes and lower spending. From the next year until 2028, windfall taxes on oil and gas companies will increase from 25% to 35%, while the Energy Price Guarantee programme (EPS) has been revised to cut down on government spending. These two measures dominate the UK's fiscal adjustment. But now that the threat of losing the anchor of fiscal credibility has ended, sterling investors are once again confronted with the reality of the UK economic outlook. Inflation is expected to average 7.4% in 2023, but GDP will shrink 1.4% due to the recession. A higher and more persistent inflation rate requires the Bank of England to maintain its restrictive stance for a longer period of time. Furthermore, the longer inflation stays high, the more difficult it will be for gilts to lure buyers to these negative real yields, especially since the BoE will restart quantitative tightening in late November. GBP/USD has risen from 1.036 to 1.203 following the reversal of September's mini-budget, primarily due to lower gilt yields, as recovered market confidence in fiscal policy has stimulated demand for UK sovereign bonds. Gilt yields likely bottomed out before the UK Autumn Budget, as the market had largely anticipated the fiscal consolidation, and could now resume a natural upward repricing, not in a disorderly fashion, but adequately to reflect a high inflation/high interest rate environment. The outlook for the pound is now dependent on the Bank of England's policies. Hawkish BoE = Neutral/bullish scenario for the pound If the BoE turns out to be more hawkish than expected – markets are currently pricing in 60bps in December and terminal rate of 4.5% next year – it can better control inflationary expectations and pressures. In this scenario, UK interest rates will increase quicker than UK 10-year gilt yields, limiting the term premium and enhancing policy credibility. This is a favourable scenario for the pound, as it can restrict the downside and discourage speculators from shorting a currency with a high yield. Dovish BoE = Bearish scenario for the pound In contrast, if the BoE delivers fewer rate hikes than the market currently predicts, inflation expectations will not be restrained and long-term gilt yields would rise faster than UK interest rates, effectively placing downside pressure on the pound.
by Capitalcom
Euro Crash. ( Updated ) O.o We update the analysis of the Euro that we have already done on other occasions. I think it's very easy to see what happens here. - Bearish Channel, bouncing off institutional support or resistance zones, but with a dark future. Where the highest probability will be to see the Euro again at $0.85 very soon in 2023 (as we discussed in previous analyses) but also after a break of perhaps 1 and a half years of setback and relief. We will be able to live a new strong Fall until the year 2026 where we could see a Euro in values ​​of $0.75 and finally for the year 2030 a fall of up to $0.64 to $0.56. As we can see, it is NOT safe to maintain any currency other than the USD, since this is the dominant one, but the dollar does not protect us. The dollar is very damaged with a loss of more than 98% of the purchasing power of citizens over the years, but within all currencies it is the STRONGEST. - On the other hand we will be able to see that the projections for the rest of the currencies are also horrendous, with which it will not be an isolated case only for the euro. We may see a Pound (GBP) at $0.85 by 2026 and up to $0.50 by 2030 if the trend DOES NOT CHANGE. And if he hasn't done it in all these years... why should he now? - At the same time we can observe the currency of Japan (Japanese Yen) This currency seemed to be quite respected against the dollar, but that is over. We are facing a macro figure of change in trend. (A pattern known as the Inverted Headshoulder, + Bottom Round + Past Trend Break + Trend Reversal Confirmation by Breaking Previous Relative Highs) It is time to worry and go. We are about to witness a loss of Value with respect to the dollar of at least 50%, 60%, 70% and the Japanese Yen up to values ​​of 150% (in case of breaking the levels of 160) from June of the year 2021 until the year 2030
Short
by javieralcazarono
FTX is Just Another Market Correction: Liquidity and RegulationsI'm sure you've probably already heard the news about FTX so I won't cover everything - but there's a few things we might expect, longer-term, from the scandal this week. - More Regulations: This incident embarrassed a lot of powerful people as well, so the likelihood of more substantial regulations coming down the pipe is now much higher. - Increased Liquidity: Lots of people are pulling money outside of crypto right now, which explains why the prices have dropped so much this week, as a whole. (Especially Solana, which took an outsized hit compared to the rest.) But the money is still there - some will leave, but some will come back...hopefully with better research. It may present an opportunity for smaller alts to grow after the dust settles. The crypto ecosystem has gone through a few exchange collapses already (ex. Mt. Gox) so crypto itself will still continue to press on. But I fully expect for more stories like these to unfold as we head further into the recession - the money printer has run out of ink, after all.
Long
by RyanTanaka
6
Pre-Pandemic Level Incoming!!All markets are targeting the levels they were trading at right before the PANDEMIC CRASH! Keep in mind these were the natural levels that were unaffected by the massive supply of funds that were injected into the economy. It only makes sense that we reach those levels again for an official reset. LEVEL SHOWN! Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Short
by rnaofs
4