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Interestrates

The week ahead - DXY (31 October 2022)Towards the end of last week, the DXY showed some recovery as it bounced from the 109.50 price area to retest the 111.00 price level. However, the DXY retraced to 110.66 to end the trading week. This will be a big week for the DXY, with the release of the decision of the FOMC regarding the Funds Rate, Statement, and the accompanying press conference due on Thursday. Rather than the interest rate decision, focus more on the forward guidance regarding the path of future rate decisions and the FOMC's view of economic performance. If the DXY fails to trade above the 111 price level early in the week, the DXY is likely to continue to slide and retest the support area of 110 and 109.30. Recent weakness in the US economic data had provided some doubt as to whether the FOMC will persist with its current aggressive path of rate hikes, hence the slide in the DXY. The FOMC is forecasted to increase by 75bps, taking interest rates to 4.00% at the upcoming meeting. This decision is likely to have been priced in already. At the last meeting, the DXY traded higher from the 111 price level, which started the climb toward the high of 114.77. This time, look for the DXY to bounce from the support area possibly toward the 112 resistance level Following the rates decision, on Friday, we'll have the release of key employment data for the US, the Non-Farm (NFP) employment change. The forecast is for a 200k change, from the previous 263k, with the unemployment rate expected to increase slightly to 3.6%. Depending on the reaction from the FOMC news, the NFP news event is likely to have little impact unless there is a significant surprise in the data release. (Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week)
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
ECB Interest Rate Decision PreparationThe ECB is due to release its interest rate decision today 8:15pm (GMT+8) The current market forecast is for a 75bps hike, taking the interest rate from 1.25% to 2.00%. This decision is likely to have been fully priced in. The EURUSD had climbed to reach a high of 1.0095 on the back of the DXY weakness and possibly with markets anticipating the 75bps rate hike to come. Currently, the EURUSD is retracing as the DXY recovers by bouncing off the 109.50 price area. In the lead-up to the news release, I'll be keen to see 1) a deeper retracement between 1.00 and 1.0040 2) price to stay above the parity level That will allow for a buy-stop order at 1.0050, stop loss below parity and take profit towards the 1.019 60 resistance level, resulting in a 1:2 risk-reward trade setup. If the ECB disappoints, or if the price breaks lower on the release of the news, due to the priced in effect, then I'd cancel the order. Remember that volatility in the EURUSD will have a significant impact on the DXY, which could affect all major currencies, especially in the short term.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
4
Important news for EURUSD Today we have ECB Interest Rates decision. We should see them going up by 0.75%. No matter what will be the bank's decision, we're going to see big moves on EURUSD. We could see more bullish pressure on EURUSD, but we have to keep in mind that FED is also coming out with their decision soon. That means, whatever upside move we see today, it could reverse pretty soon. That's why, we think the best decision today would be to wait for the news and look for entries after that. Also, price reaching higher levels will only give us a better sell opportunities.
by ForexTrendline
4
EUR/USD Outlook (26 October 2022)The EURUSD surges higher from the support level of 0.9852, but with no clear fundamental driver. This move higher could be the front running and hawkish sentiment from the market that the ECB will increase rates by 75bps (and possibly even 100bps) With the price approaching the 1.00 (parity) level again, look for price action development to determine the next possible move. A break of the resistance level could see the EURUSD trade higher towards 1.020 (the next key resistance level). Whilst a rejection of the resistance level could see the EURUSD fall back toward the support level of 0.9850 (however this is an unlikely scenario, given the interest rate hike on the horizon for the ECB)
Long
by JinDao_Tai
1
ID05Y: Possibility of Yield goes to 7.64%,Threat of Rate Hike?Hello Fellow Bond Investor/Trader/Global Economist, Here's our technical outlook for Indonesia 5 Year Government Bond Yield! Chart Perspective ID05Y is forming the symmetrical triangle and we will wait for the breakout as a confirmation of bullish bias ahead. The momentum Indicator made a golden cross, that signifies a potential bullish movement to the target area. Macroeconomic: The possibility of a Rising Yield usually means the investors expect a higher interest rate in the future. Therefore, they are selling their bonds holding. All other explanations are presented on the chart. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area. "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the ID05Y"
TVC:ID05YLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
EURUSD: ECB Interest Rate Decision next weekOn Friday the 21st, we saw the USD drop on a bad Monthly Budget Statement. This has given us reason to think that investors will not be looking at the dollar as a safe haven currency. There might be a long term trend reversal in play next week ahead of the ECB Interest Rate Decision. An increase of the interest rates should act as bullish catalyst for the Euro. Wait for a breakout of the long term trend line, and look for signs of bullish continuation to the upside on the retest of the long term trend line. Good luck traders.
Long
by CryptodopamineFX
US 10 Year Treasury Yield: What's Next?Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1M Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges. 4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below). 5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
17
US 10Y yield convergence of resistance levels around 4.19/20We have a convergence of levels around the 4.19/4.20 zone of the chart, it is a long term double Fibonacci retracement and represents significant lows seen in 1998 and 2001. Will be quite interested to see if the market pauses here in order to consolidate sharp gains that have been pretty relentless since August. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
9
Terminal rates - How FX traders can benefit on TradingViewOne of the more watched interest rate settings in markets is the so-called ‘terminal’ interest rate – the point in the interest rate futures curve that reflects the highest point of future rate expectations – said differently, where the market feels a central bank could take its key policy rate by a specific date. For those who really want to understand fed funds futures far better, this research piece from the St. Louis Fed is good - files.stlouisfed.org As an FX trader, I am not too concerned as to the exact pricing in the rates market, a basis point here or there is no great issue - I loosely want to know what is priced by way of future expectations. This lends itself to more fundamental, tactical or thematic trading strategies and obviously day traders won’t pay too close attention, although, it’s worth considering that when rates are on the move you do see higher intraday volatility and that is a factor they have to operate in – where one of the core considerations for any day trader is ‘environment recognition’ and the assessment of whether we’re seeing in a trending or mean reversion (convergence) day. We also see terminal pricing correlated with FX and equity markets – certain if we look at the relationship between fed funds futures April contract and USDJPY we can see the correlation. Some will just use the US 2-year Treasury, as this is the point on the US Treasury curve that is most sensitive to rate pricing. The good thing about the fed fund's future though is we can see quantitatively the degree of rate hikes being priced for a set date. Using the logic expressed in the St Louis Fed research piece we can see that the market sees the highest level where the Fed hike rates is March – subsequently, this is priced off the April contract, and currently, this sits at 4.90%. Using 4.9% as our yardstick, interest rate traders would make a call if the expected fed funds effective rate was either priced too high, or indeed too low and could push above 5% - if new economic data emerged that suggested the Fed needed to go even harder on hiking than what is priced, and the terminal rate moves above 5% then the USD will find a new leg higher. Conversely, if the market started to trade this down to say 4.70% to 4.5% then the USD will find sellers – and notably USDJPY is the cleanest expression of interest rate differentials. For TradingView users we can use this code in the finder box - (100-ZQJ2023). I put these codes into a watchlist and add a section' for heightened display. Again, this tells me where the peak pricing/expectations are in the interest rate curve. You can see the corresponding codes needed for each contract. Terminal rates matter – if we're to see this trending lower, most likely in 2023, then it may be one of the clear release valves the equity market needs – for those looking for the Fed to pivot – the terminal rate will be one way to visualise it
CBOT:ZQJ2023Education
by Pepperstone
7
The beginning of the BIG short !Another wave another short, a BIG short ! After the bearish confirmation with the break of the $3636 level on Sept. 27, the first bounce wave ended on Oct. 5, and the bearish acceleration on Oct. 13 with the lows supporting Fibo 50%, yet another wave of technical bounce is about to end. The opening short area starts at $3750 with a more important area between $3800 and $3815 (highlighted in deeper red). More acceleration could occur soon due to a confluence of factors : inflation data, FED interest rates, quarterly and the 50/100 weekly moving averages crossing downward (Death Cross). I will open SHORT positions in the entire area from $3750 up to $3815, with larger positions between $3800 and $3815 The long-term trend remains unchanged as from the first analysis on August 26, with a long-term target in the $2200 area.
TVC:SPXShort
by CryptoReggae
DXY Fundamental & Fibonacci AnalysisThe Covid-19 pandemic and Russia vs Ukraine war created supply shortages and imbalance in the global economy. In order to balance out the supply & demand and find equilibrium, demand needs to be reduced to meet supply. The way they can achieve this is by hiking interest rates, making things more expensive and making risk assets costly to hold. Until inflation has cooled down, the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates, which means selling of risk assets by smart money in exchange for USD, so they can profit from Dollar strength and high interest rates even when markets are going down, like a safe haven. It is estimated that at least 2 more rate hikes are priced in. If the Fed doesn't hike interest rates before recession it would be disastrous for the economy, it's unfortunate for most of the population but it's tough medicine. I expect continuation of the uptrend until the fundamental situation changes, which should happen sometime in 2023, possibly at the end of Q1, a year before the Bitcoin halving also. I expect DXY to break the Lower High at 121 and top out at 132, at the Golden Ratio of the previous swing impulse and the -0.272 Fibonacci extension. If you appreciate my analysis, don't forget to like this post and follow my page. Share your thoughts in the comments. Thank you
TVC:DXYLong
by sergiodef
2
DXY (Dollar Index) Full Top-Down Analysis Traders and Investors, Dollar had a massive run for past year and is now inside an FCP zone. It is kind of stuck between 2 FCP zones and may consolidate there for a bit. On smaller time frames, there are few signs which can give us potential important hints on the next direction. Last week, showed a rejection pattern from the top which is still valid. if the market does not violate that it can still look for downward move at least for the short term. But as it has been very bullish, there may be a period of consolidation. On the other hand, EURUSD also showed a good bounce last week which can also be correlated with it. On the bearish side of things there are several factors lining up for the dollar: 1. Completion of W pattern 2. price inside FCP zone 3. Trend Line touch a few days ago 4. Weekly divergence building up As the market conditions are changing fast, risk management is a priority. Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:DXYShort
by vikinsa
4
Forecast: Can the dollar keep rising?The US dollar (USD) has strengthened against most other major currencies in recent months, reaching a 20-year high by regained ground above the 113 bouncing back from its weekly lows of around 110 and We've already had five rate hikes this year, but the Fed has not yet been able to contain runaway inflation. Inflation shows no signs of slowing, with 8.2% increase over the past year and rising by 0.4% from August to September. What I think with Next Fed meeting scheduled for early November I think we gonna have another aggressive rate hike *Note: This Trade will be valid if the price break 114.805 and closed above it
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingWithMohamad
Gold Tests Lower LevelsGold has broken down from $1670, finding support at $1658 before equilibrating after the hotter than expect CPI data. Support was confirmed by a green triangle and we were able to recover, testing $1658 one more time before tending toward $1670 again. The Kovach OBV is pretty flat, suggesting we may waver around current levels before we see another significant move. We can expect a great deal of resistance above, especially at $1683, which is the lower anchor of our previous Fibonacci levels. If we break through $1658, there is a vacuum zone below to $1640.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Gold RetracesGold has retraced significantly from the $1700's. It appeared that we were ready to solidify this handle, however we faced a massive selloff with the rest of the risk-off assets, as the markets price in sobering data and a hawish Fed. We have broken through $1700 and our first two support levels in the upper $1600's at $1692 and $1683. We are currently finding support at $1670, but appear to be hanging on by a thread. Several green triangles are confirming support at current levels for now. If we are able to rally then $1683 is the next immediate target otherwise $1658 is the next level down.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy