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Relief Rally in GoldGold broke down into the value area between 1815 and 1795, but swiftly spiked back to 1826, where we are seeing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but we are starting to look oversold as both Kovach momentum indicators are bearish. We will see if the spike back to 1826 can sustain, or if it is just a relief rally. If momentum sustains then 1836 and 1851 are the next targets. Otherwise, we expect it to stabilize between 1795 and 1815.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
🔥 Has Inflation Peaked? A Century Old Trend Suggests YesWith inflation rising, the FED is applying quantitative tightening to the US market and the Dollar, which has caused chaos in the market of 2022. The market fears that the FED is not doing enough to combat this inflation, which will cause higher inflation, which will eventually cause further chaos in the markets. However, looking at the chart it seems that inflation is currently at a massive "resistance" which has developed over the last 100 years or so. If inflation were to adhere to the trend, we can assume that inflation has peaked and will move down from here onwards, which would result in much better (bullish) market conditions. I'm aware that applying TA on fundamental data like inflation is generally speculative at best. I think that inflation will rise further as long as the FED is unable (or unwilling) to rise the interest rates further. Nevertheless, I think this analysis can shed a different light on on the most important piece of data of 2022. Time will tell. Do you think think inflation has peaked? Share your thoughts in the comments.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by FieryTrading
20
My plan for deploying cash over the next six monthsNTSX is an ETF that holds 60% S&P 500, 40% leveraged bonds. This is a highly efficient portfolio composition known as "return stacking" (recently popularized on Twitter by Corey M. Hoffstein). You get the best of several worlds: the lower volatility of the 60-40 portfolio, and the higher returns offered by leverage. Since leverage is used on the relatively safer part of the portfolio (bonds rather than stocks), it doesn't add too much extra risk. Stocks and bonds have sold off together over the last several months, creating a rare situation where there's been a large drawdown in 60-40 portfolios and in NTSX. I think there's an opportunity shaping up, but the hard part is going to be timing it. I've been sitting on a fair bit of cash for several months (you may have noticed I haven't posted much!) and am debating when to deploy it. It's likely still too early, but I think we're nearing good levels at which to deploy anywhere from a quarter to a third of it, and NTSX is a good vehicle for that. I'll likely hang onto the remainder of my cash till October. Macroeconomic Considerations Rates are soaring, and there's no question that will be a bit of a drag on growth. But it's offset by a strengthening dollar. The US is hiking rates faster than other developed markets, which has the dollar index soaring. A strong dollar is generally very good for US stocks. In fact, stocks usually rise as interest rates do, and it's only at the end of a rate hike cycle that we tend to see a recession. There's probably a recession coming in the next couple years, but we're not there yet. Several parts of the yield curve recently inverted, which usually signals a recession in the next 18 months. You might think that means it's time to get defensive, but stocks often go up quite a bit after yield curve inversion and before the recession hits. (Plus, this yield curve signal has been a bit wonky, because parts of the curve are steepening while others flatten. So it's hard to know how to interpret this recent inversion.) For the last several weeks, the Leading Economic Indicators index and the ECRI Weekly Leading Index have been steadily improving, a good sign for near-term growth. Meanwhile, commodities prices have weakened somewhat, with the GSG broad commodities ETF breaking its uptrend: It's possible we could even see some disinflation, which would obviate the need for the Fed to get so aggressive. There are certainly headwinds: China lockdowns, war in Ukraine, and rising US Covid cases. These headwinds need to be taken seriously. But there's also the possibility that any of these situations could suddenly improve at any time, especially if certain policymakers in Asia come to their senses. So I think it's worth having some exposure here. Policy Considerations So with the macro picture looking not too bad, why would I hold onto 2/3 of my cash? Because the Fed is about to start selling assets in May, including treasury and mortgage bonds. And when one of the biggest holders of assets starts selling, you probably don't want to be exposed. Now, the market has been front-running this move for the last several months, and bonds have already have gotten a lot cheaper. It's quite possible that a lot of it is already priced in, and that we could see some counter-trend asset buying that will offset selling by the Fed. The market is also pricing in really aggressive Fed rate hikes, with a 50 basis point hike at the May meeting and 75 basis points in June. That expectation may prove to be too hawkish. The Fed's own dot-plot projections imply a somewhat slower hiking cycle than the market rate does: www.cmegroup.com Any dovish surprise from the Fed might cause bond prices to pop. But I still think you want to play it somewhat conservatively here. The ten-year yield is still much too low for this level of inflation, so on balance, there's probably more downside than upside ahead for bonds. Seasonality Considerations Usually, May inaugurates the bullish season for stocks. But this is a mid-term election year, and mid-term election years are usually bearish from May to October. This may be an especially bearish year, because we're likely to hear a lot of talk tough from candidates about how they're going to stop inflation. The chart shows one possible scenario for how NTSX might move between now and October. I'm envisioning mostly sideways price action through July-August, followed by a summer selloff as we approach the election. If I'm right, then NTSX might even complete a full round-trip to pre-pandemic February 2020 levels by the end of the year. If this scenario does play out, then I'd probably deploy the rest of my cash around October. That might be the bottom, with the rate hike cycle mostly complete. Or it might be the beginning of a recession, as rate hikes cause the economy to blow up. But if it does turn out to be the start of a recession, NTSX won't be too bad a place to hide out. Stocks will go down in a recession, but bonds will likely go up as the Fed lowers rates to stabilize the market. That's part of what makes NTSX such an attractive vehicle.
AMEX:NTSX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
6
Gold Tests Lower LevelsGold is encroaching upon lower levels of support as we predicted yesterday. It has steadily trended downward, though spikes in volatility have tested higher levels. We are seeing good support from 1826, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been steadily down trending, but appears to be leveling off, suggesting support may hold, but if not, 1815 is the next target. Recall that there is a value area between 1795 and 1815. If we break out, then 1836 and 1851 are the next targets.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
3
The Battle for Interest Rates: Tezos (XTZ) vs Ethereum (ETH2)Been writing a few long articles lately but the tl;dr of it is that now that interest rates are going up, the asset speculation market (real estate, stocks, venture capital, crypto/NFTs) is largely over and money will start to flow into financial products that provide more "reliable" returns - mainly interest rates. Given that the banks are dragging its feet in terms of giving people interest in their savings accounts, coins that offer reliable staking rewards will probably start to gain more attention as time goes on. I've been promoting the coin Tezos quite a bit lately since it's the coin that I feel like has the biggest long-term promise. They currently offer: 1) staking rewards (4.63% on Coinbase but higher if you stake them yourself) 2) on-chain governance (which most don't have, including Bitcoin and Ethereum) 3) people building/minting lots of things on top of it all the time, despite the dips in the market right now You probably remember me stanning for ETH since that's how I got my first successes is crypto, but to be honest they may be in trouble longer term if they don't do their merge sooner than later - gas fees are one thing but their decision to stick to off-chain governance models (basically trusting its users to make decisions behind closed doors) has been causing major issues in some projects, especially in DAOs. (Look up Brantley and ENS for an example of what happens with coin-based voting systems.) Whether I give up on ETH completely (I did sell off a pretty big chunk of it recently) will largely depend on how the Consensys merge goes this August and if they move towards or away from the ideals that they're advocating for all the time. They have a lot of catching up to do because #XTZ right now has all of the things they like to talk about already running. For the average person out there, what they're going to see is banks and crypto competing against each other in something that more people can understand: interest rates. Right now crypto is winning since they have the capacity to offer people better rates than the banks are - and can definitely win if they play their cards right. NFTs are still confusing for most people but one number being higher than another number is something that almost anyone can understand. You might even argue that this is the first time crypto is competing against the banks in a very direct way. The markets might look scary right now but once it settles down we'll start to see new patterns emerge with new ideas and products taking the scene.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
2
Btc potential moveif btc close below 19k this weekend, i can sey the next week will be historical. there are to supports waiting for the btc fist one is between 18k-16900 , and the second is between 13900 and 11800. Not forgetting what is going on in the global economy, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, which will cause investors to sell their positions in riskier assets ( crypto , stocks) and lead to a significant drop in these markets. These investors will prefer to put their money into bonds that the federal government will print at higher yields. that is my personal opinion.
Short
by moadsr01
2022 - Not the Recession We Want, but the Recession We NeedIn response to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates yet again, the markets - both in stocks and crypto (and housing soon to come) - have been dropping pretty hard lately. For crypto investors out there: this is the sound of mainstream money from the general public leaving the space - they came for the party, then left after the party was over. The craze that we saw in 20’-21’ was really the result of NFT projects targeting people - largely cooped up indoors due to the pandemic - with a hype-based marketing strategy that seemingly resonated very strongly. Out of all the NFT projects that could have reached #1, it was the Bored Apes Yacht Club: it doesn’t take an art expert (although I do like to fancy myself as one at times) to see what BAYC’s success “means” - it’s obviously targeted at people who’s primary ethos is boredom…and exclusivity. In a way, BAYC is the perfect sign of the times - people bored of the lockdown, the rise of digital marketing and remote work, our reliance on artificial scarcity to determine “value”, and Web2 marketing/hype and investing practices all rolled into one. There’s a reason why even the Ethereum team (most visible Vitalik) renounced BAYC as something that ETH “wasn’t intended” to do. Adjective-Animal JPGs basically missed the point of why Web3 was created from the very beginning. Now that the Feds are tightening up their money supply (finally, after having printed endless amounts of it during the last few years) the “casino” market is about to come to an end. But just because the market is in a downturn doesn’t automatically mean that everything will be bad…there are lots of opportunities still there; they just look different from what we’re used to seeing up until now. For some of us out there, we’ve been waiting for this moment for a very long time. If you might have been thinking about changing or trying new things out in your life, now is probably the best time to do it because in a few months the world as we know it will probably get flipped on its head and most things will become unrecognizable anyway. During recessions people’s priorities tend to shift away from speculative assets and into savings; short-term investments into long-term; people shopping for interest rates on savings rather than loan accounts; and so on. Those who adapt will do well - but it will require a shift in mindset that may feel strange and unfamiliar. People say that “everyone” suffers during a recession but I tend to disagree - in any given market there are always winners and losers; money is game of how the idea of “value” compares itself to the price of goods around us. It is always relative to each other, in other words - and there are always ways to get ahead if you’re willing to look at the details close enough. - The Market Itself is a Bubble One thing to keep in mind that 80%+ of people don't own any stocks/crypto, so all the panic, hype, and emotional reactions you see in the media/social media is already a bubble of its own. Most people only see the prices of the things that they interact with every day - thing most people are seeing right now is that they see that inflation is cutting into their ability to survive day to day - and that something needs to be done. Until crypto products address these sorts of “bigger issues” of the public directly, it will always follow the general markets rather than setting the tone. The reality is that most people in living in United States were already used to massive inflation - the costs of living was already on the rise since 12’ onward (especially in housing, education, and healthcare - typically the 3 biggest expenses for the average person out there) and people were already getting squeezed out every year anyway. In the upcoming months there will be a lot of people with lots of money complaining about how “hard” things are for them, but I don’t expect there will be any sympathy for them - in fact, they will probably be the target for the next ridicule cycle if anything, really. What that means is that the economy was already hell for most people during the "good times" - inflation was already well out of control but we simply failed to acknowledge it. On a personal level, I lost more friends (especially artists) than I care to talk about: many were forced to move away from the places they loved because the costs of simply existing in certain areas became untenable. A lot of people I knew gave up on having kids, gave up on their dreams, went back living with their parents - worse case, some of them literally ended up on the streets simply because they were unable to pay their rent. People who have known me long enough know that prior to getting into crypto I was heavily involved with housing politics through the YIMBY movement - though this downturn is hurting my portfolio too, it's hard for me to think that a market crash would be a bad thing long-term, because not only would it would lessen the pearl-clutching incentives/behaviors of NIMBYs, it should also bring down costs of everything as a whole. And that is good for everybody, not just the few who happen to be lucky enough to get their hands on a certain type of ERCs. So while it may be unpleasant to see the numbers in your accounts go down, this is the correction that many have been waiting for - the correction that we need. Once the housing market stops going up, there’s less reason (and ability) for NIMBYs to defend their imaginary gains against the tides of supply and demand - and in the long run, the market should equalize itself to where it should be. What Web3 needs more of is people with a mindset of abundance rather than of scarcity - and this will become more important as the crypto ecosystem starts to mature. Web3 is not only a movement of its own, but it’s also a repudiation of the bad habits of the Wall Street/Web2 model - which has, over time, become a ponzi scheme of its own. Low interest loans allowed startups, politicians, and scammers to “fundraise” their way out of trouble: No money to pay for things we need? No problem - just print more! Company not profitable? No problem - just raise your Series Z to keep it going just a little bit longer! Ponzi schemes do actually “work” on some level, after all - as long as the market keeps on going up.As we’ve seen with what happened with LUNA/3AC - which was entirely backed on the fantasy of Bitcoin going up forever and forever - there’s going to be a backlash against the stock market too, so that’s something to keep an eye out for. How did Bernie Madoff get away with what he did for over 20 years? The market was always going up. Now that the tide is pulling, we’ll get to see who was swimming naked underneath this whole time. - It’s Time for the King (Bitcoin) to Serve its People Bitcoin is obviously the first of its kind and currently the market leader in the crypto space as we speak - but for how long? While Ethereum is moving towards proof-of-stake as its primary economic engine (taking most of its tokens along with it), Bitcoin leaned hard into the proof-of-work + scarcity model in the last few years and never looked back. Given that the store-of-value idea is not unique to any coin - and that the only “value” Bitcoin currently provides is potential speculative gains (which are on its way out as staking rewards start to look more appealing during a recession) and a strange retro-nostalgia aesthetic for the pre-08’ eras (which will gradually fade over time), it’s hard to see it surviving for the long term. More broadly speaking, “it was there first” is exactly the type of NIMBY argument that the market will “correct” in the upcoming recession, taking down a multitude of asset classes that have been relying on that mentality up until this point. Ethereum is attempting to escape that fate through their “merge” (we’ll see if they’re successful in doing that this summer), but Bitcoin has basically signed the pact to go down with the ship. In a few months, it could potentially be the only proof-of-work system left on the charts, quite literally. I’ve always found it odd that a lot of Bitcoin fans aren’t too shy about calling their coin of choice “King” - which is actually a fairly new phenomenon that came during the 16’-18’ run, not before. (The dev community was much purer back then.) This phrase clashes directly with their supposed support for decentralization and democratization of money - the cognitive dissonance there is massive, to say the least. (Since there is no on-chain governance in BTC systems a small group of miners usually end up controlling everything on the protocol level behind closed doors, btw.) There’s something very disturbing about the glint you see in their eyes when they claim that Bitcoin holders (not anyone else, obviously) will become the most “powerful” people in the world in a few years - I don’t think anyone outside of that bubble really believes that - especially now. This is the year 2022 and we don’t really have the time to idolize or fantasize the absolute powers of monarchy, even in imaginary forms. Web3 will rely on the transparency of ledgers to establish partnerships of mutual benefit, enforced by precision and reliability of smart contracts - but this requires us to get better at collaboration, rather than moving unilaterally and monopolistically, as Web2 has typically done. As is the case with modern monarchies - the royalty can either choose to step down or be taken down forcibly - one or the other will happen, either way. BTC has largely been left out of the development talks of Web3 systems as a whole, since they refused to fork out their systems to make compatibility improvements - it will eventually get left behind as the world continues to move without them. Luckily this will happen through the simple process of numbers going up and down - rather than having to deal with the fallout of it in the real-world itself. - What’s Coming Next for Web3? The typical pattern that the economy goes through during periods of recession is that they switch from a speculative to a savings mindset - when both the banks and the government spends all their money and have literally nothing left, what do they do? Raise interest rates to incentivize people to put money back in. As far as anyone can tell, the fundamentals of this relationship hasn’t changed and is not likely to have done so during this cycle either. In crypto this means that there will be less demand for NFT lotteries and higher demand for coins that offer staking rewards as a benefit - undoubtedly there will be more and more people searching for the best rates out there as the Fed starts to raise its rates even further in order to keep inflation under control. Interest rates has been at 0% for so long that most people probably forgot that it was a thing - staking was a hard sell even during last year’s run since news of its developments were largely out-blasted by the NFT mania as a whole. But as we start transitioning into a different phase of the economy, people’s priorities are likely to shift. Some coins that are well positioned to take advantage of this shift are Tezos, Algorand, Cardano, NANO, and many of the other coins that have been proof-of-stake from the very beginning. Ethereum and Dogecoin both have plans on switching over to proof-of-stake in the future (ETH supposedly in August, Dogecoin’s date is unknown), but the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about right now is the fact that Bitcoin doesn’t have the means (nor the plans to) transition into anything that is likely to be relevant in the near future. Time will tell, but we’ll see what happens over the course of the next few months, next few years, since what happens is likely to be a crucial turning point for the industry as a whole. Now that mainstream money has left the space, both whales and HODLers are waiting for the right time to reorganize their portfolios and get back in. With fiat money out of the picture, we’re likely to see more independent movement between coins and clear winners and losers emerge within the ecosystem rather than always moving in parallel as it has up until now. What comes out in the aftermath of all of this will be a very different crypto landscape - possibly with the “flippening” happening during the midst of it as well. As one last reminder, your portfolio going down is not necessarily a bad thing, if the goods that you pay for day-to-day gets, on average, cheaper. So I hope people don’t lose sight of the bigger picture and sees the opportunities and benefits that can come out of this transition as a whole. Money is about to get smarter: something that people have been demanding for a very long time. Well, if that’s what you’re looking for it’s coming right for us - hope people can recognize it when it’s here.
GEMINI:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
Gold Meets ResistanceGold found support at 1815 and shot up to the mid 1850's. As we have mentioned in these reports multiple times, we are meeting resistance from a cluster of levels in the mid 1850's. In particular, 1851 and 1857 are providing formidable resistance. If we are able to break through then 1865 and 1876 are the next targets. The Kovach OBV is rounding off suggesting momentum has petered out and we are likely to establish value at lower levels or retrace back down to test 1836 or 1826. We expect 1815 to hold as a floor price for now.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Dead Cat Bounce for Bonds?Bonds have pressed higher following the Fed's 75bps rate hike. We have broken out of 115'29 back into the 116 handle, topping out at our level at 116'20. A red triangle on the KRI suggests that we are facing resistance here. We do appear to be seeing a bull wedge consolidation pattern, but the Kovach OBV has leveled off, so it is likely we will fall from here. Watch 115'29 or 115'03 for support. If we are able to break out further, the next target is 117'08.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
US10Y making H&S topping pattern with long weekly hammer?US10Y TNX may be topping out. It is both a measure of economic activity & inflation expectation. So is the economy starting to slow down or is inflation slowing down shortterm? It will take years for inflation to come down. If the FED can pull inflation down to at least 4% in a soft landing, it will already be a big success. Stagflation (rising inflation in a slowing economy) is still a big risk, which may take years to recover. A hard landing & aggressive rate hikes may be devastating for stocks but the economy may recover faster. More pain more gain. A topping TNX will be good for TLT bonds & growth stocks. Next supports are 3% & the H&S neck at 2.7%. A measured move for H&S may take TNX to the yellow 2% upper pivot zone, retesting the blue wedge or maybe to retest the big red downchannel from 1981. Not trading advice
TVC:US10YShort
by xtremerider8
EURUSD post FEDYesterday FED raised the Interest Rates by 0.75% instead of 0.5%. Despite that, our expectations were right and we saw a wick to the downside followed by a move up. It is more likely that this pullback will continue, We are looking at a possible move to 61.8% of the last downside leg, which is 1,0615. The market will confirm our idea once it breaks above 1,0470. That's when we will be able to determine specific levels where price will eventually go next. Right now, long positions are risky and not confirmed.
by ForexTrendline
11
Staking Rewards: The Best Hope for Crypto During the RecessionNews of record high inflation and the federal reserve's plan to increase interest rates this year has a lot of people worried that a recession (probably on a global scale) is coming this year. After over a decade of constant growth in the US stocks and real-estate markets, we're finally going to see the bubble pop. GDP is down, governments are broke, and I would argue that the "craze" of the last few years in stocks, housing, and even NFTs were driven by low-interest rates that encourage people to speculate rather than save - the act of buying "useless" NFTs, in a way, makes "sense" when compared to the alternative - earning almost nothing on savings and CD accounts. (The crypto "crash" we see in the last few weeks is a result of "crypto-curious" money exiting the space - most of which run in parallel to the fiat markets as a whole.) As interest rates get higher and higher over the next few months, however, that script is likely going to get flipped on its head. If the crypto industry adapts fast enough, they can take advantage of the fact that the banks are still dragging their feet in terms of offering better interest rates - staking rewards are currently outperforming the savings rates of most banks by a very wide margin and is a much easier sell to the average person out there just trying to protect their money. (The idea of buying NFTs of apes and rocks as your future nest-egg will start to sound more silly as time goes on, I think.) In a way this marks the end of the speculative-NFT era for the crypto industry, and possibly the end of the dominance of the proof-of-work model itself. Prior to the big "crash" a few weeks ago, many proof-of-stake coins Tezos (XTZ), Chainlink (LINK), Cardano (ADA) saw blips of independent movement as the rest of the market continued to tumble. If this trend continues over time (since these projects are actually offering something of value to its users - interest and real returns) we may start to see lesser-known contenders in the space rising to the top of the charts. (Ethereum is currently in limbo right now, at least until they finally do their ETH2/Consensys/"merge" in August - they've taken outsized losses this week due to the come-downs of the NFT craze.) As mentioned a few times before, Bitcoin may be in big trouble because the thing people are going to be looking for - interest rates - isn't something they're able to offer on any level, especially after the market goes into a downturn this year. All those years the mining community spent blocking money supply and block size upgrades may finally come back to bite them - the "flippening" may already be on its way. (And Ethereum too, if they fail to adapt to the new landscape - time will tell.)
GEMINI:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
US 10Y Treasuries Short Term BearishCurrently watching the 10Y Treasury Yield to hit resistance and pull back. 3% should be a big resistance level for now. Short term Fibonacci target of ~2.6%. This will be bullish for equities. The recent pivot low broke structure to the left, where the low in late April was broken. This is now a bearish retracement towards the highs, and will be watching for fib levels or a double top as resistance. The bigger picture monthly chart (below) shows a big supply zone resistance at 3%. This area of supply has been hit, and a further reaction to the downside expected. Also, the yield is stretched away from the monthly 21ema, with the 21ema currently below the 200sma. The stochastic momentum index (SMI) is also on overbought zone with bearish divergence.
TVC:US10YShort
by FourC
Stocks Await the FOMCStocks are hovering at lows, establishing value in the mid 3700's. The S&P 500 is clearly waiting for the FOMC event today, so don't expect much action at open. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, and we have found support in the low 3700's. We appear to be forming a small bull wedge pattern with a neckline at 3758. If we do break out, we should find immediate resistance in the 3800's, starting at 3792, however another dump could take us back to lows at 3694.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
EURUSD before FED Today is due the most important type of news for the market - FED Interest Rate decision. We're expecting a 0.5% hike and that is most likely going to happen. What we need to find out is what follows after that. We actually think that those rumors have already affected price by pushing it higher prior to the news. It's very likely to see price dropping and leaving a wick below the previous low from 13th of May and then to begin climbing towards 1,05-1,06. We will then expect a continuation of the downtrend. This is the main scenario that we look at the moment. We don't currently have any trades and we're only looking to enter after the news, once all setups are confirmed.
by ForexTrendline
15
#TNX #US10Y 10 year yield at a top?So the 10 year yield has run hard on interest rate hike expectations. However, as can be seen from the chart, the yield is currently about 93% above its 50 month moving average, the highest it has ever been...by far. Using the TD indicator one can also see that the yields are potentially topping this month. As can be seen from the Stochastic and RSI below, both are at major tops. The yields and DXY priced in a more hawkish FED the last couple of days since we got the higher than expected CPI reading on 10 June. Chances are that the FED will not be able to continue with higher interest rate hikes as this will crash the market. So, the yields and DXY might have been running based on expectations but might revert quite a bit on actual release of FED interest rate decisions tomorrow.
TVC:TNX
by chsmit