Get started

Interestrates

Gold analysis: Is the worst behind us? Gold prices reacted positively to the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates by a full percentage point in July. First and foremost, the reduction in expectations of future rate hikes due to concerns about a recession in early 2023 drove gold above $1,740 per troy ounce. The expectations of lower rates in 2023 also weakened the US dollar, as evidenced by the DXY index falling to the 106 mark, as of this writing. Is the worst for gold now behind us? Even though fears about rates are less than they were a few weeks ago, there is still no sign that the Federal Reserve is taking a more dovish stance. However, gold may begin to decouple from its negative relationship with interest rates and see strong investment demand if economic actors start to factor in that inflation will be difficult to control even with higher interest rates. The event of a de-anchoring in inflation expectations, which historically happened when inflation exceeded the double digit mark, will provide a strong support for gold as inflation hedge. Gold technical analysis Technically, the downward channel is still in place, but gold's price momentum is picking up as the RSI is getting close to the important 50 threshold, which it hasn't seen since mid-June. The MACD offered a bullish crossover this week, supporting the thesis of a likely short-term trend rebound. Gold is attempting to test the $1,750 resistance level, which if broken could open the door for a $1,786-1,790 resistance test. Beyond this point, the psychological level of $1,800—which corresponds with the upper line of the descending channel—becomes crucial for a trend reversal confirmation. On the downside, $1,710 continues to offer strong short-term support, and year-to-date lows of $1,680 appear more difficult to retest if the Fed doesn't unexpectedly make extremely hawkish comments before the September meeting.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by Capitalcom
Fed rates and S&P 500 analysis: A short window to rebound?Following the Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a back-to-back 75-basis-point rate hike to 2.25-2.5% ( USINTR ), S&P 500 index broke above 4,000 points, marking a 2.6% daily gain, as market expectations pointed to a halt in rate hikes at the end of the year, and a rate cut in the first half of next year. A window for a "bear market rally" in the S&P 500 could be the case between now and the next September meeting if upcoming economic data indicate a peak in inflation and a weakening labour market. This would bolster the Federal Reserve's soft-landing goal and keep short-term interest rates in check. First of all, the market is repricing the fear of an impending recession, as the earnings season continues to produce positive results. Second, given the recent negative correlation between short-term rates and the S&P 500 index, a stabilization or even a decline in short-term 2-year Treasury yields would provide further oxygen to the stock-market rebound. Momentum indicator (14-day RSI) has been hovering above 50 for the past week and is now pointing northward, indicating that bulls are gaining the upper hand in the short term. 4,160 is a short-term technical resistance at the May/June peaks and March 2022 support. A break above this level would pave the way for a 4,300 target (4 May high). A rise to 4,500 (21 April high) seems to be more challenging at this stage. The alternative scenario, in which inflation data remains higher than expected and Fed representatives remain extremely hawkish, might portray a pullback in the 3,800-3,720 region. However, to revise the S&P 500 ’s year-to-date low ( 3,639 ), it is appropriate to witness a new "rate-shock", with short-term Treasury yields spiking above 3.4-3.5% in response to a Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening bias.
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
1
EURUSD post FED Yesterday, FED hiked the interest rates to 2.5% but that didn't lead to increase in USD. Those expectations were already played out and we even saw price dropping. We are still trading sideways and we're yet to see if price will have enough strength to break the resistance. Right now, we won't trade the EURUSD because it looks like there's not that much momentum to the upside but at the same time it's still early to sell. It's probably best to focus on the cross pairs where we may have better opportunities!
by ForexTrendline
3
$BTC 👀 – 07/27/2022 #WaveRecount$BTC 👀 – 07/27/2022 #WaveRecount - 📸 🚨 📌 Let me first say, #ElliotWaveTheory wave counting is #subjective. When rules are invalidated by price action, you simply pick yourself up, brush yourself off, and you revise the wave count (recount) accordingly. 📌In this case, upon release of the #Feds decision to #hike the interest rates by another 0.75 #percentage #points. The #DXY (US Dollar Currency Index) , plummeted meanwhile #stocks #indexes #cryptocurrencies rallied. ⚠️ For $BTC specifically, I am subjectively considering the overall corrective wave B (in black) finished; as the break-and-close above $22,264.81, represents a #BreakOfStructure and invalidates the idea of an extended corrective wave c (in blue). 📌 We are now currently working on corrective wave C (in black), which is #bullish impulse wave of 5 swings. Therefore, I recounted the waves and relabeled them accordingly (see the updated screenshot). 🎯 As we are already in Impulse Wave i (in blue), we could enter ('Buy Positions') on the completion of corrective wave ii (in blue) after either 3-7-11 swings down. ✅ If you thought this was helpful or insightful: Follow, Like, or Share ✌🏾 #PublicCommunity 📈 View My Chart: ⚠️ This is not investment or financial advice; Anytime you enter the #markets, you fully accept the #implications at your own risk❗️ #longterm #learning #makingmoneymoves #invest #strength #buildandgrow #breakingnews #crypto #cryptowinter #ElliottWave #FedReserve #StrongDollar #FOMC
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ElBichotedelosGraficos
Stocks Range Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 is ranging near relative highs. We broke out into the 4000's, but fell short of 4009. Several red triangles on the KRI are confirming strong resistance at these higher levels. We have some support from 3909, and a break down could take us back to the mid 3800's, likely 3848 or so. A rally could test 4009 again. We expect the S&P to respect this range, and don't expect too much action from the FOMC today, as the markets have largely priced in a 75bps hike to combat inflation with a small probability of a 100bps rate hike, the largest hike since 1989 .
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC: This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. Gold is at a crucial price point at the moment just before a big federal statement release. After the move we’ve had to the downside, we would expect Gold to want to attempt some form of recovery, to at least the 1800 price region. However, as you can see, the institutional selling isn’t giving bulls an opportunity to cover any positions that are being held above. We witnessed a bullish weekly candle last week, but it’s still weak and lacks volume. It was a failed attempt to recover, which entails caution for this FOMC and the days ahead until the end of the month. We published a KOG Report last week showing the liquidity pool sitting below around the 1650-65 price zone; this is a potential target to swoop the lows before an attempt to test the voids above. For this reason, we will look at the extreme levels for FOMC and the days ahead, not being concerned about the immediate range and levels. We already know the 1750 psychological level is going to try and be defended and have indications of a push up in price if that 1720 -16 level holds as support. We want to see if bears defend it by coming in and taking this down into the liquidity region breaking the yearly low! We can see MA’s grouped together on the hourly and now on the 4 hourly timeframes. We have a huge gap to the mean above on the daily, that either needs to be visited or the ranging price action will bring it down lower. We’re still in bearish mode here expecting a swing to the upside before then a break of this low to continue downwards so let’s set the scene for the potential move to come. As always, we’ll trade this with two scenarios in mind using the 4H extreme levels as a guide. Scenario 1: They push the price up towards 1750 or potentially slightly above or below, we see resistance there and a clear rejection in price. This is the first level we feel that will represent an opportunity to short the market down into the 1720, 1710, 1695 and below that 1675 levels. These levels below 1675, especially that 1665-40 region is where we want to see exhaustion in price to then look to take this back up towards the 1750 price point as the first target. Scenario 2: They push the price down into the lower support levels of 1690-80, this is where we want to see the first level of support, based on strong support we feel this level would represent an opportunity to then long the market back up towards the 1720, 1735 and above that 1750 price points. As we said above, there is a huge chance they will try to break that level to the downside so expect a swoop into that liquidity pool below. The ideal long is more likely going to be from there and that’s our preferred region at the moment. Because it is FOMC we’re focusing on the extreme levels, we’re not interested in trying to capture quick pips in a volatile market against the volume driven candles. If the plan works out it works out, if it doesn’t, we’re happy to sit tight and let Excalibur guide us intra-day through the markets. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12
🔥 Bitcoin & FOMC Interest Rate Decision: What To Watch ForLike most of you know, in a couple of hours the US Federal Reserve will share with the world how much they will increase the interest rates. Remember that lower interest rates = bullish for the markets. At the moment, there's a 75% expectation that the hike will be 0.75% and a 25% expectation that the hike will be 1%. Naturally, if the FED will increase with 1% we can expect a massive down move. The extremely bearish reaction target for a 1% hike would be $18k. However, if the FED will only increase by 0.75% we can expect a slightly bullish move. This might be the starting signal for a move all the way back to the top of the channel, think $24k or so. Obviously, the percentage of the hike will be important. However, what most market participants are watching will be the FED meeting where J. Powell will talk about the outlook of the markets and the interest rate hikes for the coming months. This is where the real direction of the markets will be decided. My advice would be to wait for what the market will do. Ideally wait until tomorrow, because tonight's initial direction can be a fake out, like a couple of meetings ago.
by FieryTrading
17
Can Interest Rate Be Traded Or Invested?How can we participate in the rise and fall of interest rate? Firstly, we need to understand the difference between interest rate and yield. Interest rates are a benchmark for borrowers whereas yield is for investors or lenders. • Interest rates are the fees charged, as a percentage from a lender for a loan. • Yield is the percentage of earnings a person receives for lending money. Both move in tandem together, meaning if yield moves higher, interest rates will follow. Discussion: • Direction of the Yield in the short-term and • Direction of the Yield in the long-term Divergence in a bull market means the bull is losing its momentum, keep a look-out for trigger points that may cause further stress to the market. Micro 10-Year Yield Futures 1/10 of 1bp = US$1 or 0.001% = US$1 3.000% to 3.050% = US$50 3.000% to 4.000% = US$1,000 Note: Micro Treasury futures are not micro-sized U.S. Treasury securities. They convey no rights of ownership, nor or they pay or accrue interest. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
TVC:US10YEducation
by konhow
That's why the Fed needs to stop hiking before a system collapseThis is a quite interesting chart showing a ratio (black trend-line) of the Interest Rate, 5Y Yield and Federal Debt trading within a Megaphone pattern since the 1990s. Its (Higher) Highs have naturally coincided with peaks in Rate Hikes (red trend-line). The last peak was on October 2018 and currently the ratio just broke within that range again (red area). This shows that the Fed is on a timer and has only limited time to act and stop hiking before they jeopardize collapsing a system that is in place for three decades now and brings balance to the market. The S&P500 (blue trend-line) has seen great periods of growth and stability systemically with this in place as long as the Fed doesn't go off limits with hiking. Do you also think its time they act now and stop or at least ease this round of hiking before total collapse? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by TradingShot
46
Where US30 Is headed to next?Us30 has taken bearish hits since the beginning of this year. If it stays below $33,480 and continues back to the lows at 29,670 and further, we could see further decline. Not only for US30, but for the stocks within the index. Before that happens price could pullback towards 32,500 giving the buyers some opportunity and hopes of recovery. That's just a thought until it happens. For now, the Dow is bearish and if there is hopes of true recovery price will have to push up pass 33,480 and continue up from there.
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by ShaquanLopez
1