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SPY Big Fed Rate Hike is Coming! If you haven`t noticed Jamie Dimon`s prediction: Then you should know that The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a half of a percentage point for the second consecutive time on June 15. More rate hikes are likely in the coming months because consumer prices rose 8.6% YoY through May. Inflation is at 40 year high! Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO: "Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself." Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation , interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. If oil reaches $140 - 150 this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
2
A Few Notes for Crypto Winter First-TimersThe crypto market is in "free fall" today, as some of you may have heard. Decided to write something from the perspective of someone who's been through a few "crypto winters" over the last 8 years or so. mirror.xyz -- I feel like a million years old writing in this tone - though everyone in crypto knows that a week in this industry is equivalent to a year in “normal” time so being inside crypto-lala-land long enough does warp your sense of time. (The last few years of insanity in the world itself doesn’t help too, of course.) But it’s also true that I've been through 3 crypto bull/bear cycles at this point (I was in the ETH ICO in 14’ - divested most of it since then, for the record) and may have a useful perspective to some - not that these dips don't hurt, but I was relatively fortunate to have survived the last few ones through a combination of planning ahead and a few strokes of good luck. But I will say again what I say to almost everyone: crypto is a 3-4 year play at minimum, and you need to have the patience to wait at least that long. Life is short, yes; but at the same time it’s also very, very long. The first few hype cycles (14-16') I literally wasn't aware of anything because crypto was just an obscure, zany idea back then and people held them largely for fun. There were no exchanges - or ones you’d want to trust your money with, anyway. (Mt. Gox, yikes.) The easiest way to get Bitcoin was to mine them yourself or find some guy on the internet who you could exchange it with a pizza or some other type of bartering deal. My wallet was worth so little at the time that I forgot about it and almost lost my private key, in fact. 🤣 The second one (16-18') I worked "regular" jobs and did dollar cost averaging so I didn't have to touch my investments for day-to-day needs. I cashed out only when I needed it, for emergencies and unexpected expenses. My decision to sell was need-based, rather than speculation-based, in other words. (This one did really pay off and I wish more people would do it, honestly.) To prep for the "winter" today I've spent an excessive amount of time doing research on projects that are focused on utility and community-building…and re-allocated my portfolio accordingly. I may have made a few mistakes but after being burned a few times I think I’ve gotten better at picking assets that will survive for the longer-term. The market is still in free-fall so we'll see if that pays off. As a general observation, I’ve seen lots of projects go through problems that many would consider catastrophic - but survived out of sheer perseverance. There were a few projects started with great ambitions but eventually found success by finding and refining their niche. Finding product-market-fit isn’t easy - these things do take time to figure out, even on a human level. (You can see glimpses of potential future successes when people “buy the dip” during downturns - a sign that enough people care about the project to help it stay afloat.) I have never, however, seen a project start off as a money-making scheme then successfully “pivot” onto making something useful later. Like a song that people find catchy, projects usually start and end the same way; with the same chorus, and the same tone. If you’re still holding onto those hype coins, you may want to look at your portfolio a little closer this time because if the team isn’t actually working on anything serious there’s a good chance it will never come back up ever again. (Although I gotta say, the way Ethereum Classic was able to continue to scam people despite its protocol layer being completely compromised was impressive in its zombie-like way.) I gained a lot of respect for the Ethereum team during the last few drops because they seemed unconcerned and continued to do what they love - building tech. That and they had the support of a development community that genuinely cared about the product enough to keep it afloat during the “hard times” - the #1 resource of any project, in my opinion. But the hype of 20-21’ really brought in a lot of grifters into the ETH ecosystem and the gas-fee problem really toxified the culture there, which I think its unfortunate. (Bitcoin leaned hard into the scarcity model and might be beyond repair at this point.) We'll see if the bear market + Consensys/ETH2 merge will fix that - at this point implementing the tech itself should be a pretty straightforward process - but culture is much harder to fix once it goes sour. If people are hanging around each other solely because they think they might rich, when the money’s gone it doesn’t take very long before they start turning on each other. In both Bitcoin and Ethereum we saw the raw ugliness that came from the Proof-of-Work scarcity model - which incentivizes selfish and toxic behaviors in ways that even its founders couldn’t have anticipated. As Ethereum moves away from Proof-of-Work and into the worlds of Proof-of-Stake, is this the end of the Proof-of-Work era for crypto? Let us hope so. (The military dictatorship in El Salvador, which dared to make Bitcoin its reserve currency is in danger of defaulting now, by the way.) For the record, I own 0 Bitcoin - I sold them off a few years ago after seeing how they’ve basically given up on making any meaningful improvements on the protocol itself - gated off by an off-chain governance process controlled by a small group of miners out there. If you’re comfortable with that setup by all means, but hope you at least understand what you’re getting yourself into. -- What Comes Next? Interest Rates and Proof-of-Stake -- Last time it was Crypto Kitties, this time it was Bored Apes - in a weird way the way we talked about crypto tech hadn't really evolved much since then - probably why 2021 became the era of the (adjective)-(animal) NFTs, rather than a triumph for humanity itself. Web3 was supposed to be about scalable partnerships, not about cattle auctions of imaginary animals - but somehow we all collectively missed the point of why the technology was created to begin with. Some ideas in Web3 that I think still has some long-term potential: "useful" Proof-of-Work , Proof-of-Storage , the metaverse , DAOs, Proof-of-Identity , decentralized video , and of course, NFTs - after it becomes more “useful” to everyone. What these projects all have in common, though, is that they’re not quite production ready and are all in their alpha/beta stages right now. Great potential and great upside? Yes - still, yes. Are we there yet? No - not even close. Despite the hype, the tech behind crypto and Web3 systems haven’t evolved that much in the last few years - mostly because Web3’s biggest issue right now isn’t technical, it’s organizational/cultural: for the blockchain to have any use, the community needs to convince everyday businesses and people to adopt practices like ledger validations, using wallets for building social profiles, trackable and authoritative reputation/action/credit scores, etc. - all which are doable now on a technical level, but needs the cooperation of multiple organizations working in tandem with each other. Since crypto doesn’t deal with physical assets directly, it needs to validate itself through the utility of a service that is actually tangible to the average person out there. Most of that involves bridging social/cultural/industrial divides that Web2 companies never dared to cross. There’s a lot to be unlearned first before we can move onto the next phases of the crypto experiment itself. For now, though, there’s one obvious “utility” that I’ve been saving for last - interest rates from staking rewards. What makes this crypto cycle different from the others is that fiat systems and many government institutions around the globe are in big trouble this year: Bitcoin/crypto was “invented” sometime after 08’ as a direct response to the economic crisis then - but has largely existed in a 0% interest rate environment up until now. When interest rates start going up in fiat - possibly to 1970s levels, even - we have no idea how the coins themselves are going to respond. As the federal reserve continues to increase interest rates in response to inflation (they have no choice at this point), the general public’s attention will undoubtedly shift from a speculative mindset to a savings-based one - as it typically happens during recessionary times. Mortgage and loan rates have undoubtedly risen, but the banks have been slow to offer higher savings rates to people as a whole. Who’s actually paying out interest rates right now? Crypto. If the banks continue to drag its feet, coins that offer staking rewards (Tezos, Ethereum , Algorand, even Cardano) actually have a real competitive advantage to what fiat is offering right now. One number is higher than the other number - it’s pretty straightforward and an easier sell than trying to get people to buy animal jpgs, honestly. If crypto adapts faster than the banks do this year, this may actually when people finally begin to see the “utility” behind the technology itself. -- A Fork-in-the-Road - Which Do You Choose? -- 22’ is likely going to be an insane year for more reasons than one: we’re going to face economic, social, and political turmoil all at the same time, with crypto mixed into that chaos somewhere in the middle. But a reminder that money is relative - a market crash isn’t necessarily a bad thing if the result is cheaper goods on your money, and visa versa. The truth is that most people have been losing money every year even during these “good times” - the feeling of numbers getting higher in your bank account means nothing if the goods you pay for is rising higher than what you earn. So we already know that holding fiat is already a loss, and the one thing that made it worth it - stocks and housing - is about to tumble now, too. Crypto doesn’t need to be perfect, in other words: all it needs to do is prove itself better than fiat, which, in theory, shouldn’t be too hard to do as the Bernie Madoff 2.0s start emerging in the wake of a growth market gone sour. Whether or not crypto will go up or down during the recession this year has been a long-standing debate within the crypto community, and only time will tell which way it will go. But there’s basically two different ways to look at it - When the economy goes into a recession, so will crypto, because: - Buyers of crypto and stocks are more overlapped than not, and the two asset classes have historically always moved in parallel. - The idea that Bitcoin/crypto is a hedge against inflation has not panned out as hoped. - During recessions when budgets become tighter, people are less likely to put money into speculative assets, like crypto. - Crypto existed in a 0% interest rate environment for the most part and if you take that away, so will the momentum behind it as well. Or - when the economy goes into a recession, crypto will go up, because: - Total crypto adoption is ~10% of the world, at best. Still lots of room to grow. - Crypto adoption tends to be higher in countries with severe inflation - the loss of confidence in the banking and financial systems (which is happening already) often forces people to consider alternatives. - Staking rewards currently offer more interest than the banks and will be very appealing to some people as they shop around for competitive interest rates. - Bitcoin was created in 08’ financial crisis as a response to the problems leading up to it, so the emotional response to the next downturn will likely be more pro-crypto than not. So there’s a fork in the road here, and people HODLing crypto right now will have to make a choice regarding which path they want to take. I suggest that people take a hard look at their portfolio in the upcoming months and think about what they’re comfortable with and how they think things will unfold over the course of the next few years. The good news is that regardless of what happens, the inflation-fueled 1970s era was known for a lot of structural uncertainty but it was also the period of good music/art and great social change - something that I think will be a boon to the long-term health of the NFT markets as a whole. I get that we live in a very anti-social era right now, but at the end of the day, crypto is money, and money is about people. You can’t make real money unless you make some effort at understanding how people think. There’s plenty of reasons to think that the industry will do well in the long run, but it will take a lot of work to get there. If the community puts in the work, it will succeed because the opportunity is still definitely there - if not, it will fail. It’s pretty simple, really. Good luck and good fortune, folks. If you need me, I’ll be working on my next project, Teia Surf, in building the types of incentive structures that had always been the dream of Web3. As a lot of the veterans of the crypto industry would say - the best time to build, is now. 🤞🍀
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
1
Bond Yields Soar as APAC Prices in CPI and Fed's ReactionBonds have gotten slammed as yields have soared, smashing through several levels below when we've reported last, as the APAC session prices in CPI data from Friday. We smashed expectations for inflation and investors are rushing to price in the Fed's reaction. Barclays thinks that they will raise rates by 75 bps in order to counter these soaring numbers. We sliced through the 117's with ease and are finally finding support at the base of the 116 handle. We have projected another level of support at 115'29 using inverse Fibonacci extension levels since we've simply run out of support levels for the US ten year. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, however we do appear to be finally leveling off a bit, so perhaps this level will hold. If not, expect resistance from 116'20.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Check this out... BTC ANALYSIS High-timeframe (HTF) Technical Analysis -Breaker order block and imbalance (supply) are below the current BTC price and need to be tapped -THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS DIP IS THE UPTHRUST AFTER DISTRIBUTION (UTAD) IN THE HTF WYCOFF CYCLE WHICH IS SORT OF FORMING (there was a weak automatic reaction after the selling climax and no prices were tested even close to the first major low until now) -The trading range (represented by the white zone w/ midline) was mainly selling in the discount area (where accumulation would happen until there was a fake-out which acted as the last point of supply (LPSY) HTF MACRO -Although consumer spending and employment are doing well, interest rates are about to go through the roof. The supply chain issues have dampened the profits of businesses as it's causing higher costs; stagflation is also a possibility with inflation combined with a slowing economy -European and Chinese economic issues would also push selling pressure higher for BTC LOW TIME FRAME (LTF) Technical Analysis -Low-timeframe demand needs to be tapped above before continuing that far down -The point of interest is both of the purple zones which I have created using the VPSV and volume to identify where important demand zones are. LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by trevorweakland
USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Jun22,Wk3I've mentioned for the longest time that the USD will keep appreciating, just look at USDJPY. There might be a chance of a retracement happening this Thursday, 2am(GMT+8) when the US bank interest rate is released, and if the movement break and close below the blue box(buy zone), we might have to reanalyse the market movement. For now, I'm waiting for a buying opportunity at 133.63 to capture the trend trading move by using a bullish flag pattern.
Long
by RaynLim
Gold Valtility Consolidates FurtherGold continues to consolidate in the mid 1800's. We have met strong resistance from a cluster of levels beginning at 1851, with strong resistance from the upper most of these at 1865. Earlierthis month, 1876 proved to be a hard upper bound, and we expect this to hold as a ceiling even if more momentum comes through. From below 1836 and 1826 should hold as a floor for now. Volatility has consolidated notably, suggesting that we may continue to range and establish value in this broad price.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Stabilize at LowsBonds have found support just above our level at 117'19. We appear to be forming a bear wedge, but the Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting we may range at current levels. After the precipitous decline from 121'00, it is likely that we will establish value in a sideways correction or even a relief rally, before another selloff. If we break down further, then 117'08 is the next level where we should anticipate support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 116'20. A relief rally could take us as high as 119'01.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Markets Unresponsive to ETH2's Test Merge: What's Rallying Now?Ethereum holders were hoping for a big rally after this week's "merge" on ETH's primary test network, Ropsten, but so far the markets have been responsive. Coins that offer staking rewards, however, did fairly well this week as a whole - the two winners being Tezos (XTZ) and Chainlink (LINK) which saw big gains today and over the course of this week as a whole. Tezos: - Fork-less upgrades and on-chain governance models on XTZ provide tangible solutions to a lot of the issues the crypto industry is going through right now, especially in DAOs. - Recession talks are getting more people into a savings mindset - and Tezos' accessible and competitive rates (4.6%) makes it very appealing for crypto holders to convert to. - The interest in NFTs from artists and art collectors are starting to migrate over to chains like XTZ ever since gas-fees started to get out of control on the ETH ecosystems - time will tell if the Consensys "Merge" in August will have developers and artists return but for now, Tezos and other layer 2s are taking advantage of the lull and pulling ahead. Chainlink: - Working on many background infrastructure projects at high levels. - Has an interesting history (which involves the 4chan crowd, oddly enough) that gave it a cult-like status a few years ago that seems to be paying off today. -- While the crypto market as a whole has remained fairly flat-lined this week, the projects with the biggest gains seem to have a few things in common: the offer of staking rewards; and a visible community backing the project during its downturns, thus "buying the dip". If you're a long-term trader, these trends are positive signs that the asset has real resilience behind them. www.forbes.com
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
2
How I Use Treasury Futures To Better Execute The E-mini S&P 500Interest Rate Futures are the market leaders this year. Our technical indicators have less of an impact when the Bond & Treasury Markets are on the move and as Traders we have to be aware of when that is and how it impacts the price action in the E-mini S&P 500, E-mini Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Futures. In this video I go over a simple, but effective way I use the 10 YR Futures ZN1! & the Micro 10 YR Treasury Futures 10Y1! to better execute the Indexes. To learn more about the Futures Products discussed in the video please check out CME Group's Website. I also mention that I trade futures on TradingView using TradeStation so please go to TradingView's website or TradeStation's website to learn more. Past Performance is not indicative of Future Results. This is for Educational purposes only. Derivatives Trading is not suitable for all Investors.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by anthonycrudele
14
Reasons for Crypto-Optimism During the Next RecessionMade a list of a few things for crypto holders to be optimistic about the recession/depression about to unfold in the global markets right now. - Crypto's market cap is less than 1% (possibly even less than 0.1%) of traditional stocks. If the stock market goes down, - Banks are taking their time raising interest rates on savings accounts while pushing mortgage and loan rates up at the same time. This will make staking rewards (XTZ- 4.6%, ETH - 3.65%) look appealing. - The 2008 recession coincides with a period where tech companies (Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft) took over the charts of the Fortune 500. We're likely to see a similar thing happen again - crypto is the industry most positioned to be in that category right now. - Ponzi schemes exist in traditional markets too, and we're going to see Bernie Madoff-esque figures emerge as the market starts to dip. Madoff was able to keep his racket going for over 20 years just because the stock market kept on going up and up. When that stops, the scams will too. (Many of these practices have been "legalized" in the finance worlds at this point, but it won't change the fact that people will lose money and there will be a backlash against that.) This will further erode trust in the traditional markets as a whole. People generally don't do research unless they're forced to, but the economic slowdown may force a lot of people to look further into the details out there. This generally works in favor of crypto assets since what they offer now is just a better deal for most people out there.
KRAKEN:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
1
EUR/JPY - BUY SET UP ON ECB RATE HIKES The EURO now sits under 138.000 on the exchange rate, a key resistance level that will now surely break after European Inflation hit 8.1% for the month of April 2022, igniting the debate about whether the ECB should be raising rates at 0.50% increments instead of 0.25% increments as signaled by Christian Legard. With European Bond Yields climbing and paying a premium over Japan, the EURO will likely continue to strengthen against the YEN as interest rates rise in Europe. The overnight carry trade will start to become profitable for the EURO into 2023, which is likely to attract investors into buying the currency pair.
Long
by KayansMarkets
Bonds Test Higher LevelsBonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able to break out further, then we have a fairly wide vacuum zone to the next level and target at 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!FOMC – 25/05/22 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve seen a bit of a decline today as we suggested in yesterdays end of day analysis. We were looking for the immediate support to hold and if it broke the level below, which is yet to be targeted. We will use the 1H chart today with the 4H levels as these are more applicable in volatile markets, like the ones were seeing at the moment. So, we have support below as suggested around the 1830-35 region and immediate resistance above which is now the 1855-60 level. Excalibur has given us an indication of a move, however, we would like to trade this using the extreme levels for FOMC and rather stay out of the immediate levels while there is a chance they can move it aggressively. As always, we will trade this with two scenarios in mind. Scenario 1: The push the price up into that 1855-60 level and we see resistance there, as long as this level doesn’t break we see this as an opportunity to short the market back into the 1830-35 region as the first target and below that the 1820 level. Scenario 2: This one would be ideal for us. They push the price down into the 1830-35 and potentially below that into 1820. If we see support formed here, we feel this would represent an opportunity to then long the market back up into 1850, 1865 and above that 1870 price points. It’s a short on today and to be honest we don’t think we will get involved in trading the FOMC release. We would rather wait for them to take the price to where they want to buy or sell it and then we’ll look to get in for a longer term position. If you’re new to trading, don’t think you’ll get rich of these events, they take a lot of practice and experience to trade. The trade will always come, most of the time its once the market has moved to a certain point or level. In summary: Look for the lower support regions to go long or the higher resistance levels to go short. We’re below 1850 but we must not close the daily below the 1830-35 level. Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
EURUSD reacted once more to the remarks of the Central Bank's chFundamenta Aspect In a new interview, the head of the European Central Bank, who yesterday discussed the two phases of interest rate hikes, predicted that eurozone interest rates will likely be positive by the end of the third quarter of 2022. Legard added that there is currently no chance of a recession in the eurozone. She also emphasized that the market should not consider a percentage to increase interest rates, or infer the extent of interest rate increases based on the speaker's words. The euro strengthened against the US dollar in response to the news. Technical Aspect Bulls The EURUSD pair can advance from the $1.05903 support and reach $1.08714. With a breach of these levels, the market will target the $1.10500 level of resistance. Bears However, from the seller's perspective, if the pair breaks the partial support at $1.05903, the euro will be poised to retest the local support price at $1.03500. kindly follow me on Tradingview for more. Thank you!
Long
by VipForexLive
2
NZD/USD - BUY SET UP AS INTEREST RATES IN NEW ZEALAND RISE We are highly likely to see a strong recovery in the New Zealand Dollar Against the U.S Dollar as interest rates in New Zealand continue to rise. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate to 3.50% by year-end, which will be a premium 0.75% to 1.00% Interest rate over the U.S. This means any investors holding short positions in NZD/USD will lose money holding the position open overnight. The U.S Dollar has been strong in recent weeks as stock markets have fallen due to the Federal Reserves' commitment to raising interest rates aggressively to contain inflation running at 8.30%. When stock markets fall globally, investors historically sell international currencies and flood into the safety of the U.S Dollar, as its the worlds reserve currency. However, when stocks recover as they always do, investors will quickly sell dollars and move back into international currencies as they invest globally in equities again, causing the dollar to weaken in exchange rates and push up NZD/USD.
Long
by KayansMarkets
EUR/JPY - BUY SET UP ON ECB RATE HIKES The Euro is now highly likely to catch a strong bid against the Yen after the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Central Bank is likely to start raising interest rates in July and exit sub-zero territory by the end of September 2022. Interest rate differentials on Government Bonds will support the EURO higher. In this video I breakdown the historical relationship between the difference in Japan and Europe's interest rates and how the currency pair follows the negative or positive change in European Bond Yields relative to Japan.
Long
by KayansMarkets