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Interestrates

Bonds Test Lower LevelsBonds appeared to be making an effort to attempt higher levels, with a bull wedge pattern forming with an upper bound at 128'10. However, we broke down from this pattern, smashing through the 128 handle into the 127's and then some. The next level of support at 127'22 did little to provide support, though we finally bottomed out for now just above 127'08. Currently, we are seeing a brief pivot with an attempt to break 127'22 from below which is meeting resistance confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. If we are able to break this level, the next target is 128'01. The Kovach OBV has flattened out suggesting we won't expect much in the way of momentum for now. If we fall further, 127'08 should provide support, then 127'01.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
EURUSD before NFPEURUSD climbed 200 pips since the Interest Rates yesterday. Today NFP comes out as well. This is also a very important event which does affect the market. All week, we've been looking for a possible end of the pullback, but that impulse yesterday took price back to the previous high. However, we're still in a downtrend on the Daily timeframe and that's something we should not forget. We don't recommend looking for trades right now, but if we see price possibly reaching the zone, leaving a wick and rejecting it, then we can expect a downside continuation. The best opportunities in case of positive news and strong USD will be on the stock currencies.
by ForexTrendline
37
EURUSD ; Less than 24 Hours to NFP / 1.14550 > Range > BreakoutEURUSD is looking quite bullish as EURO buyers showed up quite strong early in the week and have maintained a stronghold on the order flow. This shift in Sentiment from the prior week can feel quite drastic, on an intraday basis. But thats the nature of the Lower Time Frames. The lower time frame gives more detail and more noise so you cant get one without the other. However , create a bias for direction on the Higher time frame, and look for confirmation of your bias on the smaller timeframes. This takes time, experience, resilience, reviewing your losses, dealing with life outside trading etc. It is possible, not syaing it will happen, but we could come up to 1.153 tomorrow as NFP closes the week off, just based on momentum and fundamentals sentiment, etc. cheers everyone
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
8
EURUSD before ECBToday is the ECB Interest Rate decision. We don't expect to see any changes but there's always a market reaction. Usually, the big moves are during the press conference 45 minutes after the Interest rates comes out. Technically, we're looking at this upside move as a pullback and we will be looking for selling opportunities. There's still a chance to see price rising up to around 1,1350 and then finding resistance around those values. That could also happen during NFP tomorrow. Don't rush with your entries before the news or at least use bigger stops in order to protect yourself from those long wicks.
Short
by ForexTrendline
40
Why are Netflix shares down 30% in 2022?Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares have tumbled 30% YTD, similar to its tech brethren, who have by-in-large, been facing huge downward pressure. For interest sake, NFLX was down 37% from its all-time high in November 2021. Two major events have eaten into the gains that NFLX made in 2021. The first is investor confidence waning in growth stocks in the face of looming interest rate rises. And the second has perhaps had a greater impact; a tepid earnings report. Netflix shares experienced a significant sell-off two weeks ago, after releasing its Q4 2021 earnings report. The report noted that the pace at which Netflix is adding subscribers is slowing. Such a declaration typically spooks Netflix investors, who steadfastly hold the streaming platform still has plenty of room to grow and shrink its price-to-earnings ratio. Before Netflix’s share price dipped by 30%, its PE ratio was ~60.0. As it stands, with Netflix trading at US $429.48 per share, its PE ratio is now ~38.0. Netflix finally admits it is facing tougher competition Typically shying away from doing so, Netflix has finally revealed that competition is hurting its subscriber growth. It is this admission that caught a lot of investors off guard. In the past three years, Netflix has had to contend with a wave of competitors entering the streaming market, such as (in order of appearance) Apple TV+, Disney+, Peacock, HBO Max, and Paramount+. The penultimate newcomer on the above list, the premium-placed HBO Max, has been the fastest-growing service of late, vastly outpacing Netflix and adding 73.8 million subscribers last year. Similarly, Netflix is hurting from older streaming services increasing the appeal of their content libraries and raising investment in content creation. One such competitor, Amazon Prime, increased its spending on content by 41% to US $11 billion in 2020 from the previous year and have recently bid US $8.5 billion to acquire MGM studios and its content catalogue. 2022 looks to be a pivotal year for streaming Will 2022 be the year that consumers start weaning off the numerous streaming services to which they are subscribed? As prices climb, this may be the likely outcome. In this respect, Netflix may be on the back foot, having recently pushed its prices up to US $15.50 per month for its standard package. Netflix is now more expensive than the more ‘premium’ HBO Max at this price point. One factor that could influence the price of Netflix shares over the year is whether their competition hikes their respective prices. For one, Disney+ might be expected to raise its prices before June, as its bargain pricing (introduced one year ago) becomes increasingly unsustainable. However, its attempt to hit ambitious growth targets may delay price hikes from the company. If pricing over the different streaming services become more equitable, content becomes the deciding factor for consumers. Netflix, and Netflix’s share price, will be in a better position in this scenario as consumers by far prefer Netflix content over its competitors. As such, In 2021, even as competitors pumped funds into content creation, Netflix’s hosted 14 of the top 15 most popular TV shows and Movies.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP Strength?News came out on Forex Factory, a News article regarding the Bank of England. Apparently they are going to raiser interest rates for the Second Month in a row. The last time they did this was 2004. This is a big deal because of the cost of money has increased. This can be attributed to the Federal Reserve for adding more Poker Chips to the Table. Inflation. We have moved bullish nearly 100 pips since this rumor came out. Looks like people are buying the rumor. I believe this news may be a catalyst for a more bullish next few weeks. It may encourage bullish sentiment in the markets, continurbting to a rebound in other risk on assets. possibly the dollar cools down. anyways, cheers everyone. Like and Follow for more content like this
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
How Will Increased Interest Rates in the USD Affect Crypto? Now that the Federal Reserve seems committed to raising interest rates in response to inflation (something that they denied was a problem during 2021) we're going to see a shift in the way money is talked about in the near future. What does this mean for crypto, and the greater economy, overall? - The US growth and assets markets have been driven strongly by the availability of cheap loans since 2008, an era that is now coming to a close because the only way to avoid a hyper-inflationary economy in the USD right now is to raise interest rates. - The historic rate at which the US Treasury printed money -- largely justified through COVID woes -- is extreme and it's TBD whether or not the proposed rates will be enough to offset its after-effects. (Was initially 2%, now proposed to ~3%.) The government is broke and has no other choice. - Higher interest rates are generally bad for "risk-takers" in the market, but good for people who like to save. The idea of the government and financial sectors actively encouraging people to save, however, has been missing from the mainstream narratives for a while. Whether or not the institutions can adapt fast enough to form a holistic plan in the midst of the turmoil is yet to be seen. The condition has been around long enough that this scenario will be new to even "experienced" financial experts out there. - This presents a new economic landscape/opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors looking to capitalize on the change. But in this environment, the "slow growth" approach is likely to be more successful than the marketing-driven hype markets that has dominated the scene for the last 10-15 years. (Yes, even in crypto. ex. SHIB, NFT-hype.) - Generally speaking, countries with higher inflation rates tend to have higher crypto adoption rates as well. Will the same happen to crypto, NFTs, and metaverse -based assets? Time will tell -- but now crypto at least has the title of an "alternative asset" with the potential for high growth, especially since it's not affected by supply chain issues that traditional assets are tied into right now. - Since 2021 there have been a lot of crypto-based projects that have tied itself into the USD markets through traditional legal arrangements and contracts (as opposed to "pure" crypto investments that aren't concerned with what the traditional markets are doing right now) -- this money is more likely to run in parallel to the outcomes that fiat money will face as the interest rates start to ramp up in 2022.
Long
by RyanTanaka
How Will Increased Interest Rates in the USD Affect Crypto? Now that the Federal Reserve seems committed to raising interest rates in response to inflation (something that they denied was a problem during 2021) we're going to see a shift in the way money is talked about in the near future. What does this mean for crypto, and the greater economy, overall? - The US growth and assets markets have been driven strongly by the availability of cheap loans since 2008, an era that is now coming to a close because the only way to avoid a hyper-inflationary economy in the USD right now is to raise interest rates. - The historic rate at which the US Treasury printed money -- largely justified through COVID woes -- is extreme and it's TBD whether or not the proposed rates will be enough to offset its after-effects. (Was initially 2%, now proposed to ~3%.) The government is broke and has no other choice. - Higher interest rates are generally bad for "risk-takers" in the market, but good for people who like to save. The idea of the government and financial sectors actively encouraging people to save, however, has been missing from the mainstream narratives for a while. Whether or not the institutions can adapt fast enough to form a holistic plan in the midst of the turmoil is yet to be seen. The condition has been around long enough that this scenario will be new to even "experienced" financial experts out there. - This presents a new economic landscape/opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors looking to capitalize on the change. But in this environment, the "slow growth" approach is likely to be more successful than the marketing-driven hype markets that has dominated the scene for the last 10-15 years. (Yes, even in crypto. ex. SHIB, NFT-hype.) - Generally speaking, countries with higher inflation rates tend to have higher crypto adoption rates as well. Will the same happen to crypto, NFTs, and metaverse -based assets? Time will tell -- but now crypto at least has the title of an "alternative asset" with the potential for high growth, especially since it's not affected by supply chain issues that traditional assets are tied into right now. - Since 2021 there have been a lot of crypto-based projects that have tied itself into the USD markets through traditional legal arrangements and contracts (as opposed to "pure" crypto investments that aren't concerned with what the traditional markets are doing right now) -- this money is more likely to run in parallel to the outcomes that fiat money will face as the interest rates start to ramp up in 2022.
Long
by RyanTanaka
EURO Rate Hike Expected on Feb-3-2022 /// Currently Jan-31-22We have seen a news release come out on forex factory around NY open about the expected Interest rate decision by the Bank of England. It turns out that it is indeed expected of the BOE to raise interest rates for the second time in a row. This has not occurred since 2004. This is positive news for the EURO as inflation is not necessarily a bad thing. The cost of money goes up in England, because apparently the economy can handle it, in the eyes of the BOE. This is why it is positive. But personally, I don't hear about wages going up a whole lot. Workers are the backbone of the Economy. Bit concerning. Unsure where price will go from here. Not going to be doing much EURUSD trading as we lead up to the IR announcment on thursday. I'm leaning Bullish I would like to see the Daily candle close solid bullish , as it looks to close in 1Hr, (our first daily close of the week) This would begin our fakeout structure here on EURUSD on the Daily Timeframe
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
11
The raising of interest rates VS BTC price actionHey everyone, Hope everyone is keeping well and in good health. We've seen our crypto portfolios shrink in monetary (FIAT) value. This sucks, but please refrain yourself from making emotional choices here at all times. Above illustration incorporates the recent FED rate hikes between 2015 and 2019 and what the price-action of Bitcoin was in that time period. I know the bears are trying to spread a lot of fear around J. Powell's plans. but always do your own research. Historically speaking, the FED raising interest does not have a negative effect on BTC. Last time the rates hikes began, BTC did over 40x (from around $450 to the 2018 top of nearly $20K) Everyone take care and keep healthy. Thank you for taking the time and until the next time!
BNC:BLX
by impatientmonk
Dollar Index - Nearly at the end of cycle wave 2!We've been tracking the DXY in it's final stages of it's wave C of cycle wave 2. We're looking for this to end around the 98 region, we'd advise patience to confirm the end of this wave 2 before shorting the dollar as it could be a trap and the dollar could push a little higher towards 99 if wave 5 is extended. It is our belief that the Fed has either been signalling too aggresive an approach in raising rates and stopping QE and will have to either be more dovish or reverse course altogether if the economy starts to tank causing the dollar to become more worthless and risk on pairs and commodities flying to the upside in response to this.
TVC:DXYShort
by RAA_Trading
Interest Rate Hike is Imminent, So Does The Drop of Gold Price ?As we all know that the Fed has announced the increase of interest rate is going to come as early as March 2022. Although it is not guaranteed, but usually the price of gold is going down when the interest rate moves higher due to investors switching their funds to other attractive investments such as bonds and stocks. Lets see on the chart, based on the daily chart of Gold, we actually can draw the Elliot Waves and see a possibility of breakout on the bottom of the last line which could trigger a new trend if it happens. At the current point of time, I agree that the breakout has not happened yet. However, due to the interest rate news, I will be more comfortable if the price can drop below the line. All the best!
TVC:GOLDShort
by Anandha_AR
Head and Shoulders Breakdown in BondsAfter breaking down from our head and shoulders pattern, bonds have found support at lower levels and have attempted a rebound. The level 127'08 provided good support confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI, and we saw a nice pivot there. We were able to break above 127'22, the next level above before retracing and stabilizing above 127'08 again. It appears that ZN is attempting to stabilize in this area, as we mentioned in the reports. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, so we anticipate the price action to be range bound between these levels.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
GO LONG TOMORROW ... AFTER 12 AM EST SNIPER ENTRIES ARE OVER.FOMO doesn't see inflation as a problem right now as CPI is steadily increases. The Feds will tighten policies with the help of Job Biden new appointees. This will cause the US stock market to fall further. A hawkish projected FOMO will cause a major bullish move for DXY-If interest are actually raise tomorrow- Powell has hinted this in the past. An immediate increase may cause a drop that may crash the us stock market. Tomorrow is 100% macroeconomics in full effect. DXY just recovered from an overbought resistance level. Right now is too soon to expect a major bearish move. Retail traders will analyze this as a perfect bearish move. The bullish spike will hit all stop losses.
Long
by Theforexconnect
4
Gold Smashes Through Lower LevelsGold has smashed through lower levels, currently breaking through our levels in the 1780's. We are just above 1777, the floor we anticipated yesterday. We sliced through the entire value area between 1815 and 1795 with ease. The Kovach OBV has taken a turn to the bearish side with the selloff. We anticipate 1777 to hold, as it has provided support in the past, but if not, then 1770 should hold, then there is a vacuum zone to 1759. We should see resistance from 1795, should gold bounce from lower levels.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
S&P 500 - IS THIS A CRASH/ OR HEALTHY CORRECTION TO AVERAGEAbove is a chart of the S&P 500 since 1950 (adjusted in Log). The yellow line represents the mean (average) price. It is well known that price naturally gravitates towards the mean, always! Notice how the price of the S&P 500 has not had a significant drop below the mean, since the early 1980's. It had a brief stint below trend, during the 2008 financial crisis. Why has the S&P 500 not had a significant dip below the mean since 1980? Is it a booming economy? Is it an educated and financially literate workforce? I will talk about this in a future post. For now, I just want to pose the question and get the cogs turning. What has caused the high deviation from the mean in the past 30 years, and specifically the past 12? I want to throw this other statistic out there. Interest rates in the 80's were around 16%. Today? The lowest they have ever been. Less than 1%. Form your own hypotheses, and please share them. I'd love to hear your thoughts.
SP:SPXShort
by SJ_CAP
XAUUSD Possible Trend : 01.26.22As you can see after the breaking of the upward trend we expect the price to see lower levels and there's a possibilty of losing the 1834$ key Support ... i can see the price is so bearish and the next bearish targets is : 1832$ , 1826$ , 1823$ , 1809$ and 1800$ ... Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 26.Jan.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
How the FOMC Statement could Impact the US DollarThe US dollar is on a broad uptrend, solidifying the 96 handle again. However, as we identified in the report yesterday, 96.24 seems to be providing prohibitive resistance at this time, with a red triangle on the KRI as confirmation. We are getting support in the low 96's, however and we identified 95.82 as the next level of support if this does not hold. Note that we appear to be forming a bull channel, beginning from 94.77 or so. Bull channels tend to break to the downside, hitting a target of 50% of their length. This would put us at about 95.58 or 95.26 in the event of a correction. The rate hike from the fed has largely been priced in, so we could see a bit of a selloff in the US Dollar after the FOMC meeting this afternoon. If we can continue to rally, then 96.44 is the next target.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy