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Interestrates

Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern. 10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Gold Expected To Rise Due To Lower Inflation NumbersHere is why we think gold prices will go up (FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS) Lower Core Inflation Numbers and Potential Fed Rate Cuts: The recent core inflation report came in weaker than expected, signaling a sluggish economy in the United States. This unexpected weakness has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Impact of Weak Core Prices: Weak core prices provide the Federal Reserve with greater rationale to implement interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar as they make dollar-denominated assets less attractive relative to other currencies. Consequently, a weakened dollar often leads to upward pressure on gold prices. Potential Fed Policy Response: In response to concerns over weak core prices, the Federal Reserve may contemplate lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity. By reducing borrowing costs, lower interest rates can encourage consumer spending and investment, thereby bolstering economic growth. However, this policy action tends to weaken the dollar, which can benefit gold prices. Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often viewed as a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and inflation. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and signal a upcoming recession. Here is what to watch out for that might stop it from going up: Market Response and Federal Reserve Policy Decisions: Market participants should closely monitor any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. For example if inflation rises, it becomes more likely for the Federal Reserve to not cut rates, well expect gold prices to plummet. Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Developments: It's important to stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments that could impact gold markets. Any shifts in these factors could alter the trajectory of gold prices. (TECHNICAL ANALYSIS) Trade setup explained: Take-Profit: is set at 2426 due to a strong area there ( see green line ) Stop-Loss: is set at 2338 which is right under 2344, 2344 has been showing stronger support. Conclusion: The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by concerns over weak core prices, has contributed to upward pressure on gold prices. As lower interest rates tend to weaken the dollar, gold becomes more attractive as a safe-haven asset, thus supporting its price. However, market participants should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies in response to evolving economic conditions and policy decisions. Like always use proper risk-management. Greetings, Zila
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
Bond Market Hints Towards a Second Wave of Shorts to hit the JPYLate last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage ratio on the trade has been forming what looks to be a nice looking Cup with Handle pattern, which if it plays out would bring the leverage ratios up from 500% to well over 800%. This would likely align with higher highs in the SPX, Higher Inflation Rates, Higher Commodity, Import/Export Costs, and a continuation of the falling Japanese Yen. I will leave the chart of last year's Carry Spread Chart Post below for reference.
TVC:US10YLong
by RizeSenpai
TBT Inverse Treasuries ( Long Dates ) LONGTBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees. Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a broadening channel ( a megaphone pattern) reflecting increasing volatility as federal action or inaction gets priced into buying decisions at treasury auctions. As for me, i will continue to build a TBT position until it is obvious that the fed has launched an active agenda of rate cuts which will fortify T-bill prices and make TLT the new runner.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
Factors Driving Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Up Analysis: Factors Driving Gold Prices Up Here is why we think it will go up (FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS) Weak NFP Report and Potential Fed Rate Cuts: The recent Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report came in weaker than expected, signaling sluggish job growth in the United States. This unexpected weakness has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Impact of Weak NFP Report: The NFP report provides insights into the health of the US economy, and a weaker-than-expected report suggests economic challenges. Which helps the fight against inflation. Potential Fed Policy Response: In response to disappointing economic indicators, such as the weak NFP report, the Federal Reserve may consider implementing monetary policy measures to support economic recovery. One such measure could be a reduction in interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending, thereby bolstering economic activity. Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often viewed as a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and inflation. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Here is what to watch out for that might stop it from going up: Market Response and Federal Reserve Policy Decisions Market participants should closely monitor any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. If it becomes more likely for the Federal Reserve to not cut rates, well expect gold prices to plummet. Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Developments: It's important to stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments that could impact gold markets. Any shifts in these factors could alter the trajectory of gold prices. (TECHNICAL ANALYSIS) Trade setup explained: Take-Profit is set at 2344 due to a strong resistance line there (see white horizontal line) Stop-Loss is set at 2311 which is right under 2315, 2315 has been showing stronger support. Conclusion: The weak NFP report and the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to upward pressure on gold prices. However, market participants should remain vigilant and assess the evolving economic landscape and its impact on gold markets. By monitoring economic indicators and central bank policies, investors can make informed decisions in the dynamic world of gold trading. Like always use proper risk-management. Greetings, Zila
Editors' picks
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
32
GOLD - Trading Inside the Triangle#XAU/USD #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + GOLD price is currently trading inside the triangle and the price has been ranging since May + I'm expecting the price to break downwards as the overall trend on lower timeframe is bearish. + We have good opportunity for a short trade here. --------------------------------------------------------------- VectorAlgo Trade Details ------------------------------ Entry Price: 2311.453 Stop Loss: 2325.813 ------------------------------ Target 1: 2304.801 Target 2: 2300.000 Target 3: 2290.430 ------------------------------ Timeframe: 1H Capital Risk: 1-2% of trading amount --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VectorAlgo
BREAKOUT or FAKEOUT?? - EGHere I have EUR/GBP on the 4 Hr Chart! Ever since its visit at the Support Zone @ ( .8534 - .8528 ), Price has been steadily making Higher Highs and Higher Lows with the most significant High in the Price Action being Friday's High reaching the Resistance Zone @ ( .8586 - .8581 ) on the release of LOWER than expected NFP numbers for USD ( 175K Actual - 238K Forecast ) Now not only did we get an enormous Bullish Break on Friday, but by market close, most of those gains were given back bringing Price back to the cycle of Highs it broke AND a Minor Support Zone. So .. Is this a BREAKOUT or a FAKEOUT?! I think to answer this question, it will come down to the Fundamentals as of late! I believe EUR started to slightly overpower GBP Mar. 21st when BOE decided to HOLD their Interest Rates @ 5.25% Then, Apr. 17th GBP gets the HOTTER than expected CPI of 3.2% with BOE Bailey making the comment that Inflation looks to have quite a STRONG DROP in May ... Followed by a very disappointing Retail Sales read of 0% on Apr. 19th .. -COULD THIS MEAN GBP WILL BE THE NEXT UP FOR RATE CUTS?!?!- Well on Thur. May 9th, BOE meets to take vote on whether they INCREASE, DECREASE or HOLD RATES Also GDP Fri. May 10th .. From a Technical standpoint, I want to watch for Price to either: Find Solid Support at the Minor Level + Ranged Highs to continue higher -OR- Price to drop back down through the High/Low Range with a Bearish Break using Resistance from the Ranged Lows -DOES THE BOE HAVE THE DATA INFRONT OF THEM TO LOWER OR HOLD RATES??-
by Novi_Fibonacci
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCThe KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve had an extremely decent week so far, together with the long that was presented to us earlier in the session today. As it stands, we’re in the 4H order region, which is why price is attempting the intra-day levels of support and resistance, while they temporarily accumulate orders. This now gives us support 2295-90, which if supported on the spike, could give the move upside into the region highlighted on the chart. It’s this level that needs to be monitored closely and if the set up allows with a clean resistance, a move downside breaking the 2300 level again could be available. With events like this, there is usually a flip and it’s unexpected. So expect the market to spike either way collecting liquidity. We would also say, the trade usually comes after the event, so it’s best to wait for them to move the market to where they want, then look for a clean set up. Please note, these are key levels, if broken above, we can correct the move from yesterday and end up closer to 2390 than 2255 end of the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
13
#Treasury Yields are they going to over 7% !!!Interest rate bull and bear markets can run for many years before they change direction. Currently the yield curve is the lowest it has ever been and is still declining. The long term charts above are strongly suggesting that the bear market in interest rates ended during the pandemic crash low in 2020 after 39 years of decline. This will have major consequences if the #Economy is unable to whether a higher cost of capital and Gives big money managers to park their money in a risk free asset and earn #yield treasury notes are any #bond with a less than 2 year maturation.
TVC:TNXLong
by BallaJi
XAU/USD | GOLD OVER ALL PLAN ( SMART MONEY ) DECRYPTERS Welcome to DECRYPTERS ! NOTE:- PLEASE READ FULL DESCRIPTION BEFORE CONCLUDING ANY THING UPON ANALYZING GOLD OVER ALL TRENDI IS BULLISH DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS 1 - GEO POLITICAL SITUATION 2- BANKS DEMANDS FOR GOLD 3- INFLATION ISSUES IN US 4- JAPAN CURRENCY DEVALUING ISSUE 5 BRICS 6 -INFALTONUN CERTANITY SMART MONEY HATES UNCENRTANITY , SO THEY ARE BUYING ALOT OF IT OVER ALL GOLD IS BULLSIH IN YEARLY / MONTHLY /WEEKLY CHARTS ( FOR NOW) FOR Now gold is moving in 4 H desecnding channel once it Reaches 2215 - 2225 Area we may see rejection from there . in case if its Flip the Area we may see possible up side Even new All time highs too The down side area 2225 - 2240 we have yearly V WAP Area there as well The projected path of that is shown in chart Even Alot of confluences at that area as POI for trade Thanks for reading the post and be with us till Now , Plz Press Like button if you like the post "REGARDS DECRYPTERS"
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DECRYPTERS
4
$JPINTR - Interest Rates MoMECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected. The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield. The board said that it will patiently continue with monetary easing amid extremely high uncertainties at home and abroad. It also mentioned that policymakers will respond to development in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions. By doing so, the BoJ aims to achieve a price stability target of 2% in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage increases. The committee reiterated that it will not hesitate to take extra easing measures if needed. source: Bank of Japan
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Expectations point to the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming decision slated for May 1. However, fixed income markets suggest the possibility of rate cuts surfacing in either the July or September meetings of the FOMC. Nonetheless, Thursday’s economic activity report ushered in another jolt for investors and Federal Reserve policymakers. They had been bracing for lower inflation to pave the way for substantial interest-rate cuts this summer. The core price index for personal consumption expenditures in the United States, excluding food and energy, surged by an annualized 3.7% during the first quarter of 2024. This marks an acceleration from the previous three-month period's 2% increase, surpassing the estimated 3.4%. Recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have solidified the conviction that rate cuts won’t materialize in the near term. In fact, there's been discussion about the potential for further hikes if inflation fails to abate. Given the challenging scenario, where higher interest rates don't appear to be substantially denting the economy, the question arises: What if policymakers opt to maintain current rates throughout 2024 without any cuts? With the divergence in outlook from the Fed and the ECB, can we expect parity to be reached again in the EUR/USD this year?
by BlackBull_Markets
#FED causing Commercial Real Estate/ Banking CollapseCommercial real estate "..talk of black swans of an economic nature forcing the Fed to print trillions again. Commercial real estate may be the next domino to fall. Back in 2008, default rates rose to 9%, up from 1%, as interest rates rose. Today, the damage to commercial real estate loans which total about $2.7 trillion could be far greater. Over 40% of the US work force now works remotely since May 2020. The decline in demand for commercial properties has worsened by recent tech layoffs. The value of office sector REITs have fallen by about 55% which translates into a 33% reduction in the value of office buildings. The default rate of between 10-20% in commercial real estate which was the lower end seen during the worst of 2008 would result in about $80-160 billion in additional bank losses. This would be ruinous for hundreds of smaller and midsize regional banks that have already been weakened by higher interest rates. The 2008 financial crisis spread from the housing sector to the rest of the economy as large banks with exposure to housing took tremendous losses. Today, the Fed has created a moral hazard in guaranteeing depositors. Bank executives may take bigger risks if they believe the Fed will step in to protect depositors."
NYSE:AREShort
by BallaJi
How much higher can the USDJPY go?Yen weakness despite... BoJ Exited negative rates regime Increasing geopolitical uncertainty Gold at historic highs of 2430 In 2022 and 2023, when the USDJPY approached the 152 price level, open/discreet intervention was in place to strengthen the Japanese Yen. However, in 2024, the USDJPY has now surged past the 152 resistance level, with the Japanese Yen continuing to show signs of weakness. Could 155 be the next target price level for an intervention?
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Last Leg (Update) - USDCHF Year So FarHey everyone!! Here I talk about USDCHF and give a little update on my Trade Idea "Last Leg To The Finish Line" Since it went over so well and continuing to follow suit, I wanted to do a Video Update on the idea to give a little insight on what I was seeing as the pair unfolded for the year and what I'm looking for in the near future!! Please let me know what you think and thank you so much for all the Support!! .. It all started with a little Double Bottom on the Hourly Chart
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
Goldman Sachs, the Buyback King?Goldman Sachs, one of the very few giant financial services companies left, is intending to do the first mega buyback program that will exceed One TRILLION dollars into 2025. Gasp. So the chart shows the initial buybacks commencing and the support of its stock price during the very dicey sideways trend. The company reports earnings Monday, April 15. Enough time to catch another swing run to earnings if the current consolidation breaks out to the upside. NYSE:GS is a Sell Side Institution and admits it is heavily vested in NASDAQ:NVDA and other big tech stocks at this time. GS benefits from higher interest rates holding through this year.
NYSE:GS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader