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Us30 Incoming Buy setup!!Why i think US30 will have another leg up!! Look at the time horizon of the bigger picture we see clearly structure is being maintained to upside,on the Daily Timeframe!! As we break down to a lower timeframe, which gives us the direction of our potential move, we clearly see nice rejection on the 38.2 fib level also in confluence with the breakout which act as support now So if you combine the daily trend trajectory plus the H4 timeframe fib level, breakout retest. give us a nice risk to reward to upside H1 timeframe we see a nice buying momentum coming in!! Follow me for more simple breakdown!!
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by ShinForex1
USD/CAD Pressured but Policy Divergence Still FavorableUSD/CAD has entered its third straight losing week and faces renewed pressures today after the upside surprise in Canadian inflation. Crucially, Core CPI accelerated 1.6% y/y in May, snapping its five-months declining streak. The Bank of Canada had slashed rates earlier this month, for the first time four years and had hinted at further easing if inflation continued to decelerate. But today’s hot CPI report, casts some doubt over the disinflation process and the policy path. The pair remains is risk of bigger decline below the 38.2% Fibonacci of the December-April advance. Sustained weakness towards and beyond 1.3419 has a higher degree of difficulty though. However, today’s hot report is not the end of the disinflation process and is likely not enough to bar further rate cuts by the BoC. Its US counterpart meanwhile is reluctant to pivot due to inflation persistence and Fed officials see just one cut this year, despite more optimistic market pricing for two moves. This monetary policy divergence remains a tailwind for USD/CAD. On the technical front, the pair has already defended the critical 38.2% Fibonacci and another bounce off would reaffirm the upside bias and allow the bulls to push for new 2024 highs (1.3846). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
1
BoE Rate Decision: Pound's Fate Hangs in the Balance – Rally or With the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision on the horizon, let's examine recent developments in GBPUSD, primarily through the lens of fundamental analysis. Chart analysis reveals that recent GBPUSD fluctuations have been largely influenced by the US dollar's strength, fueled by the Fed's increasingly hawkish stance. Although a September rate cut by the Fed is still widely anticipated, recent commentary and revised dot plot projections suggest a more cautious approach, bolstering the dollar's bullish momentum. US Dollar Strength: Not Just About Rate Cuts The US dollar's resilience, despite the expected rate cut, can be attributed to several factors. The September cut was already priced into the market, and the Fed's surprisingly hawkish tone has prompted a reassessment of the likelihood of further easing. Until clear signs of cooling inflation and a looser labor market emerge in the US, the dollar's upward trajectory is likely to persist. The CME FedWatch Tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data, currently shows a higher probability of a rate cut in September than before the recent CPI data release. This suggests that the market is still weighing the Fed's intentions carefully. UK Inflation on Target: A Dovish BoE Unlikely Yesterday's UK inflation data, which met the BoE's 2% target, might not lead to an immediate shift towards a dovish monetary policy. Market consensus anticipates a rate hold at 5.25% in today's BoE meeting (most analysts and economists predict the first rate cut to occur in August). However, the BoE's forward guidance will be critical. Hawkish commentary regarding inflation, robust wage growth, or a tight labor market could temporarily strengthen the pound. Short-Term & Mid-Term Outlook: A Bullish Pound Faces Headwinds In the short term, a hawkish BoE could potentially drive GBPUSD back towards the 1.28 level. However, a sustained bullish momentum is unlikely, with a mid-term target of 1.26 seeming more plausible. This is because even with a hawkish stance, the UK's inflation and labor market appear better positioned for easing compared to the US, suggesting the BoE may be forced to adopt a dovish stance sooner than the Fed.
by UnknownUnicorn13053793
Sell NZDJPY Wedge BreakoutThe NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry : Consider entering a short position around the current price of 96.70, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 96.17 2nd Support – 95.82 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 97.20. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
Yields are still selling off after yesterday's dropLet's see how the TVC:VIX does over the next few days/weeks. Still think it eventually breaks its major support level, at least temporarily. The 2Yr and 10Yr are crashing and following yesterdays drop. TVC:TNX #interestrates, as we said, will likely be cut, even if a little. They will most likely be raised again next year. Not political... Anyway, since we have stated COUNTLESS times. They CANNOT lower rates but MUST lower them.
TVC:US02YShort
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Could the USDJPY retest 160?When the BoJ increased interest rates in March, for the first time in 17 years, the Yen continued to weaken due to the perceived lack of commitment toward further rate hikes. In April the BoJ kept rates on hold at 0.10%, which saw the Yen react with further weakness. The BoJ is due to release its Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow (Friday). With the USDJPY currently at the 157.25 price level, a resumption of strength on the DXY following the FOMC decision yesterday could see the USDJPY climb up to the resistance level of 158 before the BoJ decision. If the BoJ decides to keep rates on hold and not take any further action on reducing its bond purchases, the Yen could weaken further, pushing the USDJPY higher toward the all time high of 160. This is likely to make it very interesting as it would reignite the speculation of a possible currency intervention from the BoJ
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Bullish DXY (Post FOMC Analysis 13th June)The DXY spiked higher from the 104.20 price level to 104.60 during the release of the FOMC interest rate decision and the press conference. The move higher has continued through the Asia session with the DXY now approaching the 105-round number level (around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the move yesterday) This bullish move in the DXY is likely due to the FOMC adopting a conservative undertone during the news release. Conservative due to - "We don't see ourselves as having the confidence that would warrant policy loosening at this time" - "We need further confidence, more good inflation readings but won't be specific about how many to start rate cuts" - Indicating the potential of only 1 rate cut decision to come for the 2nd half of the year - "Rate cuts that might have taken place this year, take place next year" If the economy progresses along its current path, the FOMC dot plot suggests that terminal rates for 2024 is likely to be 5.1%. Adopting a conservative stance on rates for 2024 (which could be offset by a more aggressive rate decision in 2025, 4 cuts expected) is bullish for the DXY as it indicates that rates could remain high for longer. Look for the DXY to continue climbing to the upside, toward the immediate resistance level of 105.60 (which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) Beyond 105.60, the DXY could retest the high from April at 106.40
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
Bearish on DXYThis week we have CPI and US Fed funds rate announcements. Most probably we don't get a rate cut for now (as the market expects). However, I think this week the announcements are coming out with a more dovish tone. Let's see what happens . . . If the CPI number come out lower or equal to the expectations and the Fed Chair Powell signals 1 or 2 rate cuts for this year. I believe we can expect the yellow scenario. Otherwise, we can expect the red scenario happens in short term.
TVC:US10YShort
by SamanFx0
Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis: Navigating Key Levels Amid Market News🔍Bitcoin (BTC) is responding to significant market events. Here's a detailed analysis to guide your trading decisions. 📆Coin of the Day: Bitcoin (BTC) About the Project: Bitcoin is the first and most widely recognized cryptocurrency, often referred to as digital gold. It operates on a decentralized network without a central authority, using blockchain technology to facilitate secure and transparent transactions. 🧩Technical Analysis 4-Hour Timeframe This analysis focuses on shorter-term trends, identifying critical levels and potential scenarios. 📉Support and Resistance: Key Supports: 66,208.06 64,616.89 62,450.00 Key Resistances: 70,108.93 73,305.41 (Major Supply Zone) 📈Bullish Scenario: Supply Zone Test: BTC is currently within a significant supply zone (70,108.93 to 73,305.41). A break above this zone could indicate strong bullish momentum. Targets: Key resistance levels to watch are 70,108.93 and 73,305.41. Breaking above 73,305.41 could signal a continuation of the uptrend. 📉Bearish Scenario: Break Below Key Support: If BTC fails to hold above 66,208.06, it could signal a bearish reversal. Targets: The next support levels are at 64,616.89 and 62,450.00. 📊Volume and RSI: Volume Analysis: Recent volume spikes suggest increasing interest, which is critical for sustaining upward momentum. RSI Analysis: Current RSI: 41.09, indicating neutral momentum. Key RSI levels to watch are 55.29 for resistance and 41.09 for support. 💡Key Triggers: For Long Positions: Entry Trigger: Break and hold above 70,108.93. Strategy: Open a position on the hold of this level, targeting 73,305.41. Use tight stop-loss orders to manage risk. For Short Positions: Entry Trigger: Break and retest below 66,208.06. Strategy: Open a position if the price confirms a break below this level, targeting 64,616.89 and 62,450.00. Adjust stop-loss orders accordingly. 📉Market News Impact Upcoming News: The U.S. interest rate and inflation data are expected today. These macroeconomic factors can have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. Interest Rate Decision: A higher interest rate might lead to a stronger USD and potential bearish pressure on BTC. Inflation Data: Higher inflation rates could increase demand for Bitcoin as a hedge, potentially driving the price up. 👨‍💻Trading Positions Long Position Entry Trigger: Hold above 70,108.93 with confirmation from RSI and volume. Strategy: Open a position on the hold of this level, targeting 73,305.41. Use tight stop-loss orders to manage risk. Short Position Entry Trigger: Break and retest below 66,208.06. Strategy: Open a position if the price confirms a break below this level, targeting 64,616.89 and 62,450.00. Adjust stop-loss orders accordingly. 📝Bitcoin is currently navigating key levels amidst significant macroeconomic news. Traders should closely monitor these levels and the impact of the U.S. interest rate and inflation data. Volume and RSI trends will provide additional insights into momentum shifts. 🧠💼Always remember the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
by itsparham96
2
BTCUSD to reclaim highs and more?Highlighting the inverse relationship between the DXY (yellow line) and the BTCUSD. Potential weakness on the DXY tonight could see the BTCUSD continue its bounce from the support level of 66,000 (also formed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) up toward the previous high of 72,000. If the price breaks above the resistance level, significant upside could be anticipated with the next target profit level around the 74,500 area
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JinDao_Tai
1
GBPUSD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)Considering the scenario that the CPI data is released higher and/or the FOMC presents a hawkish tone, this would mean that the US interest rates could stay high for longer. This would bring significant strength to the DXY which could see massive downside for the GBPUSD. However, the GBPUSD has developed a strong support along the 1.27 price level, formed by several swing points and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. In DXY strength, look for the GBPUSD to break the bullish trend line and the support level before anticipating further downside toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and support area of 1.25
Short
by JinDao_Tai
EURUSD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)The EURUSD has found support along the 1.0720 price level (with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the bullish trendline forming a confluence) If the DXY does weaken with the news tonight, the EURUSD could bounce strongly from the support level to trade higher toward the resistance level of 1.09 (moving similarly to the price action on the 9th of May) A trigger level for further upside potential would be a break of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
USDCAD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)USDCAD has been trading within the range of 1.3590 and 1.3780 since the start of May 2024. With the price action indicating a potential rejection of the resistance level, weakness in the DXY could see the USDCAD continue to reverse lower. A consideration as a trigger for the reversal is if the price breaks through the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous swing level at 1.3735. However, the downside is likely to be limited at the 1.3590 price level, due to the 50% and 38.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the shorter and longer term move forming a confluence with the bullish trendline around the support area.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Levels discussed on Livestream 12th June12th June (FOMC Decision Pending) DXY: Could test and reject 105.60 resistance before trading lower (dovish FOMC) down to 105 support. NZDUSD: Buy 0.6170 SL 25 TP 45 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6560 SL 20 TP 65 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Look for reaction at 158 resistance Buy 158.20 SL 40 TP 115 or Sell 157.70 SL 40 TP 115 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2750 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY strength) EURUSD: Buy 1.0770 SL 50 TP 120 (DXY weakness) USDCHF: Sell 0.8950 SL 25 TP 55 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3795 SL 20 TP 50 (DXY strength) Gold: wait for a reaction at 2280 support level
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/USD Short Opportunity: Riding Downside MomentumThe EUR/USD pair is poised for a potential downside move as key technical and fundamental factors align. Here's my analysis: Target Projection: With a clear break of 1.06, the EUR/USD could aim to take out the previous year's low, currently at 1.0450, and head straight for the level of 1.0377. This breakdown suggests that sellers are gaining control and may drive the pair lower. This downside target aligns with the bearish momentum and could be achieved by the end of May or leading into June. Due to possible Eurozone interest rate cuts. Short Positions: I've initiated short positions at 1.0802 and 1.0720 , anticipating the downward move. These positions provide an opportunity to capitalize on the expected decline in the EUR/USD pair. Rising US Bond Yields: The forecasted rapid increase in US bond yields adds further pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Higher yields attract capital flows into the US dollar, strengthening it against other currencies, including the euro. Potential Interest Rate Hikes: Concerns over rising inflation data could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes later in the year. Such actions would likely support the US dollar and weigh on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Entry: Consider adding to short positions on any retracements towards resistance levels, but maintain a focus on the downside bias. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above the recent swing high, 1.0813, or a key resistance level to manage risk effectively. Take Profit: Target the projected downside level of 1.0377, but consider adjusting the target based on evolving market conditions and price action.
Short
by mackmackeyy
Euro Area Interest Rate Reduction a signal? Euro Area Interest Rate ◻️Reduced from 4.5% to 4.25% as expected ◻️We can acknowledge the pattern & recognize its significance without jumping to any immediate conclusions ◻️Chart will need to be combined with others to make assertions, such as the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread U.S. 10Y/2Y Yield Spread with U.S. Unemployment rate The amount of months that have passed prior to recession initiation after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards 0% level ◻️ Historical Average timeframe is April 2024 ◻️ Historical Maximum timeframe would be Jan 2025 No guarantee that history will repeat. Again, just a chart and some data that is worth keeping an eye on. Some people state the bond market is now broken and manipulated, we should know within 12 - 18 months, or sooner. PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by PukaCharts
Options Blueprint Series: Secure Interest Rates with Box SpreadsIntroduction The E-mini S&P 500 Futures is a popular and widely traded derivative product. These futures are used by traders and investors to hedge their portfolios, gain market exposure, and manage risk. The Options Box Strategy is an advanced options trading technique that involves creating a synthetic long position and a synthetic short position simultaneously. This strategy is designed to lock in interest rates and profit from price discrepancies, essentially securing a risk-free return through arbitrage. By using Box Spreads, traders can secure interest rates and achieve a potential arbitrage opportunity in a controlled and predictable manner. An interesting application of the Box Spread strategy is using unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders can earn a risk-free return on idle cash by deploying it in Box Spreads. This approach maximizes the utility of available capital, providing an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure, thus enhancing overall portfolio performance. E-mini S&P 500 Futures Contract Specifications: Contract Size: $50 times the S&P 500 Index Minimum Tick Size: 0.25 index points, equal to $12.50 per contract Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week Margin Requirement: $11,800 at the time of publishing this article Micro E-minis: 10 times smaller than the E-minis Understanding Box Spreads A Box Spread is a sophisticated options strategy that involves simultaneously entering a long call and short put at one strike price and a long put and short call at another strike price. Components of a Box Spread: Long Call: Buying a call option at a specific strike price. Short Put: Selling a put option at the same strike price as the long call. Long Put: Buying a put option at a different strike price. Short Call: Selling a call option at the same strike price as the long put. How Box Spreads Secure Interest Rates: Box Spreads are designed to exploit mispricings between the synthetic long and short positions. By locking in these positions, traders can secure interest rates as the net result of the Box Spread should theoretically yield a risk-free return. This strategy is particularly useful in stable market conditions where interest rate fluctuations can impact the profitability of other trading strategies. Advantages of Using Box Spreads: Arbitrage Opportunities: Box Spreads allow traders to capitalize on discrepancies in the pricing of options, securing a risk-free profit. Predictable Returns: The strategy locks in a fixed rate of return, providing certainty and stability. Risk Management: By simultaneously holding synthetic long and short positions, the risk is minimized, making it an effective strategy for conservative traders. Applying Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures To apply the Box Spread strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures, follow the following step-by-step approach. Step-by-Step: 1. Identify Strike Prices: Choose two strike prices for the options. For instance, select a lower strike price (LK) and a higher strike price (HK). 2. Enter Long Call and Short Put: Buy a call option at the lower strike price (K1). Sell a put option at the same lower strike price (K1). 3. Enter Long Put and Short Call: Buy a put option at the higher strike price (K2). Sell a call option at the same higher strike price (K2). Potential Outcomes and Rate Security: The Box Spread locks in a risk-free return by exploiting price discrepancies. The profit is determined by the difference between the strike prices minus the net premium paid. In stable market conditions, this strategy provides a predictable and secure return, effectively locking in interest rates. Advantages of Applying Box Spreads: Risk-Free Arbitrage: The primary benefit is securing a risk-free profit through arbitrage. Predictable Returns: Provides a fixed return, beneficial for conservative traders. Minimal Risk: By holding both synthetic long and short positions, market risk is mitigated. Considerations: Ensure precise execution to avoid slippage and maximize the arbitrage opportunity. Account for transaction costs, as they can impact the overall profitability. Monitor market conditions to ensure the strategy remains effective. Example Trade Setup: Let's consider a practical example of setting up a Box Spread on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures while its current trading price is 5,531. We'll use the following strike prices: Lower Strike Price (K1): 5450 Higher Strike Price (K2): 5650 Transactions: Sell Call at 5650: Premium = 240.01 Buy Put at 5650: Premium = 352.85 Sell Put at 5450: Premium = 270.59 Buy Call at 5450: Premium = 347.39 Note: We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Net Premium Calculation: Net premium paid = 347.39 - 240.01 + 352.85 - 270.59 = 189.64 Potential Profit Calculation: Profit = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) - Net Premium Paid Profit = 5650 – 5450 – 189.64 = 10.36 points = $518 ($50 per point) Rate Of Return (ROR) Calculation: Margin Requirement = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) × Contract Multiplier = 200 x 50 = $10,000 ROR = 518 / 10000 = 5.18% Annualized ROR = 518 / 10000 x 365.25 / 383 = 4.94% (based on the screenshots, expiration will take place in 383.03 days while a year is made of 365.25 days) Interesting Application: Utilizing Box Spreads with Unutilized Capital An intriguing application of the Box Spread strategy is the use of unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders often have idle cash in their accounts that isn't actively engaged in trading. By deploying this capital in Box Spreads, traders can earn a risk-free return on otherwise dormant funds. This approach not only maximizes the utility of available capital but also provides an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure. Utilizing Box Spreads in this manner can enhance overall portfolio performance, making efficient use of all available resources. Importance of Risk Management Risk management is a critical aspect of any trading strategy, including the implementation of Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures. Effective risk management ensures that traders can mitigate potential losses and protect their capital, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance. Conclusion Implementing the Options Box Strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures may allow traders to secure interest rates and potentially achieve risk-free arbitrage opportunities. By understanding the mechanics of Box Spreads and applying them effectively, traders can capitalize on price discrepancies in the options market to lock in predictable returns. Key points to remember include: E-mini S&P 500 Futures offer accessible and efficient trading opportunities for both hedging and speculative purposes. Box Spreads combine synthetic long and short positions, providing a powerful tool for securing interest rates through arbitrage. By following the outlined steps and leveraging classical technical indicators, traders can enhance their ability to set up and analyze Box Spreads, making the most of this advanced options strategy. Utilizing Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures not only can secure interest rates but can also provide a structured and disciplined approach to trading, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern. 10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Gold Expected To Rise Due To Lower Inflation NumbersHere is why we think gold prices will go up (FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS) Lower Core Inflation Numbers and Potential Fed Rate Cuts: The recent core inflation report came in weaker than expected, signaling a sluggish economy in the United States. This unexpected weakness has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Impact of Weak Core Prices: Weak core prices provide the Federal Reserve with greater rationale to implement interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar as they make dollar-denominated assets less attractive relative to other currencies. Consequently, a weakened dollar often leads to upward pressure on gold prices. Potential Fed Policy Response: In response to concerns over weak core prices, the Federal Reserve may contemplate lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity. By reducing borrowing costs, lower interest rates can encourage consumer spending and investment, thereby bolstering economic growth. However, this policy action tends to weaken the dollar, which can benefit gold prices. Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often viewed as a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and inflation. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and signal a upcoming recession. Here is what to watch out for that might stop it from going up: Market Response and Federal Reserve Policy Decisions: Market participants should closely monitor any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. For example if inflation rises, it becomes more likely for the Federal Reserve to not cut rates, well expect gold prices to plummet. Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Developments: It's important to stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments that could impact gold markets. Any shifts in these factors could alter the trajectory of gold prices. (TECHNICAL ANALYSIS) Trade setup explained: Take-Profit: is set at 2426 due to a strong area there ( see green line ) Stop-Loss: is set at 2338 which is right under 2344, 2344 has been showing stronger support. Conclusion: The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by concerns over weak core prices, has contributed to upward pressure on gold prices. As lower interest rates tend to weaken the dollar, gold becomes more attractive as a safe-haven asset, thus supporting its price. However, market participants should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies in response to evolving economic conditions and policy decisions. Like always use proper risk-management. Greetings, Zila
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES