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Gold Watch: CPI Impact and Interest Rate DynamicsGreetings Traders, Our spotlight is on XAUUSD, where we are actively eyeing a potential buying opportunity around the 2015 zone. As gold trades in an uptrend, it currently finds itself in a correction phase, steadily approaching the trend at the critical 2015 support area. This numerical level carries historical significance, serving as a vital juncture where the correction may align with substantial market forces, creating an opportune entry point for traders. To comprehend the potential market dynamics, we must delve into the macroeconomic fundamentals. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released on October 25, 2023, revealed an actual inflation rate of 1.2%, surpassing the forecast of 1.1% and the previous 0.8%. This ongoing trend of rising inflation is crucial, as it has the potential to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The latest FOMC data, dated December 13, 2023, reflects a steady interest rate of 5.50%. Such a stance indicates a commitment to combat inflation, but the continuous dovish rhetoric and the decision to maintain the interest rate may suggest that the Fed is cautious about tightening too quickly. This dovish sentiment in the monetary policy can lead to further weakness in the USD. Considering the interest rate evolution, the Fed has been on a trajectory of cautious adjustments. For instance, in the FOMC meeting on September 20, 2023, the interest rate was held at 5.50%, maintaining the status quo. This steady approach is indicative of the Fed's commitment to managing inflation without overly hindering economic growth. The correlation between interest rates and the strength of the USD is pivotal in understanding gold's potential upsides. The negative correlation between gold and the USD implies that a weakening dollar could propel gold prices higher. As traders navigate the XAUUSD chart, the careful consideration of both CPI and interest rate data is imperative. The dovish monetary policy's potential impact on the USD's strength and the subsequent influence on gold prices should be a focal point in crafting effective trading strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
The Ripple Effect: How Interest Rates Influence the Stock MarketIntroduction Brief Overview In the complex tapestry of the global economy, few factors play a more pivotal role than interest rates. At its core, an interest rate is the cost of borrowing money, a fundamental element that influences economic activity. Governed largely by a nation's central bank, these rates are a powerful tool, used to control economic growth, manage inflation, and stabilize the currency. Whether you are a homeowner paying a mortgage, a student paying off loans, or a conglomerate investing in new ventures, interest rates touch every corner of economic life. They are the heartbeat of the financial world, dictating the rhythm of spending, saving, and investing across the globe. Thesis Statement This article delves into the intricate dance between interest rates and the stock market, a relationship that is both dynamic and profound. Interest rates don't just influence how much it costs to borrow money; they also have a domino effect on stock prices, corporate profits, and investor behavior. Our focus is on unraveling this complex interplay, shedding light on how fluctuations in interest rates can set in motion waves that ripple through the stock market. Importance For investors, particularly those engaged in swing trading, understanding the impact of interest rates is not just academic—it's a crucial aspect of strategic decision-making. Swing traders, who typically hold positions from a few days to several weeks, must be acutely aware of how interest rates can influence market trends and individual stock performances. A change in interest rates can alter the investment landscape overnight, creating risks and opportunities that must be navigated with skill and insight. In this context, a deep understanding of the interest rate-stock market relationship is not just beneficial; it's essential for successful trading. By grasping how interest rates influence market dynamics, swing traders can better anticipate market movements, make more informed decisions, and, ultimately, enhance their trading performance. Section 1: Understanding Interest Rates Definition and Function At its simplest, an interest rate can be understood as the price paid for the use of borrowed money. This rate, usually expressed as a percentage, is what borrowers pay lenders in addition to the principal amount borrowed. But beyond this basic definition, interest rates are a cornerstone of financial policy, serving multiple roles in the economy. They act as a regulatory tool for economic growth, influencing the level of spending and saving in an economy. When rates are low, they encourage borrowing and spending, injecting more money into the economy, thereby stimulating growth. Conversely, high interest rates tend to slow down economic activity by making borrowing more expensive, thus dampening spending and investment. In this way, interest rates are a key lever used by policymakers to maintain economic stability and target inflation levels. Determinants of Interest Rates The setting of interest rates is not arbitrary; it is influenced by a myriad of factors, primarily steered by a country's central bank. The most significant determinants include: 1. Inflation: One of the primary goals of setting interest rates is to control inflation. When inflation is high, central banks may increase interest rates to cool down the economy. This increase makes borrowing more costly and saving more attractive, which can reduce spending and bring down inflation. 2. Economic Growth: Interest rates are adjusted in response to the current state of the economy. In periods of economic downturn or recession, lowering interest rates can stimulate borrowing and investment, providing a boost to economic activity. In contrast, in times of robust economic growth, higher interest rates can help temper expansion and prevent the economy from overheating. 3. Monetary Policy: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States, use monetary policy to manage economic stability. This policy includes setting the target interest rate, which influences overall financial conditions in the economy. The central bank's perception of economic conditions (like employment rates, GDP growth, and consumer spending) significantly influences its monetary policy decisions. 4. Global Economic Factors: In today's interconnected world, global economic conditions also play a role. For example, if major economies are experiencing growth or recession, it can influence interest rate decisions in other countries due to the global nature of trade and finance. Understanding these determinants is crucial for investors and traders, as changes in interest rates can have widespread effects on the financial markets, including the stock market. This understanding forms the foundation for appreciating the nuanced ways in which interest rates can influence stock prices and investment strategies, particularly in the realm of swing trading. Section 2: Interest Rates and the Stock Market Direct Impact Interest rates wield a direct and significant influence on stock prices. This impact primarily revolves around the cost of capital and corporate earnings. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper for companies, enabling them to invest in growth, expand operations, or refinance existing debt at more favorable terms. This often leads to increased corporate earnings and, by extension, higher stock prices. Conversely, when interest rates rise, borrowing costs increase, potentially leading to reduced profits and lower stock valuations. Furthermore, interest rates also affect the discount rate used in valuation models. When rates are low, future cash flows are discounted at a lower rate, increasing the present value of stocks. Higher interest rates mean a higher discount rate, which can reduce the present value and, consequently, stock prices. Investor Psychology The psychological aspect of investing plays a critical role in how interest rates affect the stock market. Lower interest rates often create an environment of economic optimism, encouraging risk-taking among investors. Stocks, being riskier assets, become more attractive in low-rate scenarios as investors seek higher returns, driving up demand and prices. On the flip side, rising interest rates can signal a tightening of monetary policy and potential economic slowdown. This can lead to increased risk aversion, prompting investors to shift their assets to safer havens like bonds or even cash. Such shifts in investor sentiment can cause stock markets to react negatively, leading to price declines. Sector-Specific Impacts Different sectors of the stock market can react quite differently to changes in interest rates. For instance: • Financial Sector: Banks and financial institutions often benefit from rising interest rates, as they can earn more from the spread between what they pay on deposits and what they earn from loans. • Real Estate Sector: This sector typically has a negative correlation with interest rates. Higher rates increase the cost of mortgages, which can dampen demand for real estate and negatively impact related stocks. • Technology Sector: Tech companies, particularly those with high growth potential but lower immediate profitability, can be sensitive to interest rate changes. Lower rates generally favor these companies by reducing their cost of capital and valuing their future earnings more favorably. • Consumer Discretionary Sector: Consumer spending habits can be influenced by interest rates. Lower rates might encourage more spending on non-essential goods and services, potentially benefiting this sector. Understanding these dynamics is essential for traders, especially those involved in swing trading, as it allows them to anticipate which sectors might be poised for growth or decline in response to interest rate changes. This sector-specific approach enables more informed and strategic investment decisions. Section 3: Historical Case Studies Past Trends To fully grasp the impact of interest rates on the stock market, it is insightful to turn to history. Several instances stand out where shifts in interest rates led to significant market movements: 1. The Early 2000s Dot-Com Bubble Burst: Following the burst of the dot-com bubble, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to historic lows to stimulate the economy. This action, coupled with other factors, led to a rapid recovery in the stock market, with the S&P 500 climbing significantly in the years that followed. 2. The 2008 Financial Crisis: In response to the 2008 financial crisis, central banks around the world slashed interest rates to near-zero levels. This move was aimed at encouraging investment and spending. Stock markets eventually responded positively after an initial period of high volatility, with indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounding strongly in the subsequent years. 3. The COVID-19 Pandemic Response in 2020: As a reaction to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks again cut interest rates. This action, combined with fiscal stimulus, led to a swift recovery in stock markets, with tech stocks, in particular, showing strong performance. Analysis of Outcomes Analyzing these historical cases reveals several key patterns and lessons: • Quick Response Leads to Quick Recovery: One consistent observation is that swift and decisive interest rate cuts by central banks have often led to rapid recoveries in the stock market. This suggests that proactive monetary policy is a crucial tool in mitigating economic downturns. • Sector-Specific Responses: Different sectors respond uniquely to interest rate changes. For example, tech stocks have historically performed well in low-interest environments due to their growth potential and reliance on cheap capital. • Long-Term Impacts: While lower interest rates typically lead to immediate stock market gains, the long-term impacts can be complex. Prolonged low-interest-rate environments can lead to asset bubbles and increased debt levels, posing risks to economic stability. • Investor Behavior: These historical instances underline the importance of investor psychology. Market sentiment can shift dramatically in response to interest rate changes, often resulting in short-term volatility before settling into a trend. These historical examples provide valuable insights for investors, particularly those engaged in swing trading. Understanding how the market has responded to interest rate changes in the past can help in formulating strategies that anticipate similar movements in the future, though it's important to remember that past performance is not always indicative of future results. Section 4: Interest Rates and Swing Trading Opportunities and Risks Swing traders, with their focus on short to medium-term market movements, can find both opportunities and risks in the fluctuations of interest rates. These changes can create significant price movements and trends in the stock market, which swing traders can capitalize on. Opportunities: • Sector Rotation: Interest rate changes often lead to shifts in sector performance. Swing traders can take advantage of this by rotating into sectors that are likely to benefit from the current interest rate environment. • Trend Identification: Interest rate trends can set the stage for medium-term trends in the stock market. Identifying and riding these trends can be a profitable strategy. • Volatility: Interest rate announcements and expectations can increase market volatility, creating price swings that traders can exploit. Risks: • Market Unpredictability: While interest rate changes can create trends, they can also lead to market uncertainty and unpredictable movements, especially around the time of major announcements. • Overreaction: Markets can sometimes overreact to interest rate news, leading to exaggerated moves that can reverse quickly. • Lag in Market Reaction: The full impact of interest rate changes on the economy and corporate earnings may take time to materialize, posing a risk for traders who act too quickly on interest rate news alone. Strategies Swing trading strategies in the context of changing interest rates might include: • Trading on Interest Rate Announcements: Swing traders can take positions just before interest rate announcements, betting on the market's reaction to the news. • Riding the Wave: After an interest rate change, traders can identify which sectors are likely to benefit and take positions accordingly. • Contrarian Strategies: In cases of overreaction, swing traders might adopt a contrarian approach, taking positions opposite to the market's initial movement. Mark Minervini’s Perspective Mark Minervini, a renowned stock trader, emphasizes the importance of understanding market context, which includes the impact of interest rates. Minervini's trading philosophy, based on specific patterns and technical analysis, also considers the broader economic environment. He suggests: • Focus on Quality Stocks: Even in fluctuating interest rate environments, Minervini advocates for focusing on high-quality stocks with strong fundamentals and growth potential. • Risk Management: In times of interest rate volatility, Minervini stresses the importance of stringent risk management strategies to protect against unforeseen market movements. • Adaptability: Minervini's approach is about adaptability - being able to switch strategies based on changing market conditions, including shifts in interest rates. By incorporating these insights and strategies, swing traders can better navigate the complexities of trading in varying interest rate environments, balancing the pursuit of opportunities with the management of risks. Conclusion Summary This article has explored the multifaceted relationship between interest rates and the stock market, highlighting its significance in the realm of investing and swing trading. We began by defining interest rates and their function in the economy, followed by an examination of the factors influencing their determination, such as inflation, economic growth, and monetary policy. We then delved into the direct impact of interest rates on stock prices, investor psychology, and the varying responses of different market sectors. Historical case studies provided a practical perspective, showcasing how shifts in interest rates have historically affected the stock market. In the realm of swing trading, we discussed the opportunities and risks presented by fluctuating interest rates and outlined strategies to navigate these changes, incorporating insights from Mark Minervini's trading philosophy. Finally, we analyzed the current interest rate environment and offered educated guesses on future trends and potential market reactions. Final Thoughts Understanding the dynamics between interest rates and stock market behavior is not just about recognizing patterns; it's about comprehending a fundamental aspect of financial markets. For investors and swing traders, this knowledge is crucial. It enables them to adapt their strategies, mitigate risks, and seize opportunities in a landscape that is constantly shaped by monetary policy decisions. Call to Action As we navigate through evolving economic conditions, the importance of staying informed cannot be overstated. I encourage readers to continuously educate themselves about current economic trends, particularly interest rate movements. Integrating this understanding into your investment strategy can provide a significant edge in making informed, strategic decisions in the stock market. Remember, in the world of trading, knowledge is not just power—it's profit.
TVC:US10YEducation
by JS_TechTrading
LONG a Falling Interest Rate! - TLTNASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest Rates are at their highest levels in around 20 years and history would show that following these peaks in the 5.5%-7% range tends to be a sharp fall of interest rates usually due to a general moderate or severe economic downturn needing economic stimulus with low rates - Along with the peak thesis, in the current economic state of America, it has been generally discussed by Fed Presidents that rate slowdown / rate hike pauses are starting. The FedWatch tool from CMEGroup shows that traders predict the highest rates will not go any higher, and actually start being cut in Early Spring 2024. Due to this data, it is definitely important to realize the risk/reward of this trade on how the downside is minimal with the current economic conditions proving interest rates will likely not move higher, and definitely not more than a last 25bps hike for this rate cycle considering no unprecedented events occur. - Another staple to this bullish thesis is against the Federal Reserve. I strongly believe the Federal Reserve bluffs intentionally during their public conferences and talks. Recalling the inflationary period following COVID, the Fed repeatedly spoke out on this inflation being transitory while CPI rocketed to record highs in decades. I believe they like to not inform the public to the 100% truth and locked room talks. The Fed has came out and said they are quite against publicizing a rate pause officially / begin cutting rates and I believe this is a bluff. As the Fed claims to wait for data, I believe that data is showing, and will continue to show stronger economic struggle from the effects on high-interest rates. As unemployment just ticked up and probably will continue, rates will start to drop fast as soon as the Fed starts. Treasury Yields would likely dump prior to all of this as the anticipation begins to flow into the markets. Lastly, I think the Fed tends to deceive the public to try and not heavily move the markets in a short time. - Overall the data should start to pour in on economic slow down as student loan repayments resume, credit delinquencies continue to rise, housing market cools, unemployment ticking up, and more can feed to a sharp drop in CPI as aggregate US demand settles. The Fed will act on this slowdown and will need to sharply cut interest rates, especially if they wait too long. - Technicals on NASDAQ:TLT also look strong with a major demand zone, a dailydouble bottom and a diagonal trendline supports the price level. TTM_Squeeze also backs up a possible end to the downside. Below 89 area could be a solid Exit area for risk-management. Any Cut in Rates, or anticipation in rate cuts can send TLT flying with bond yields tumbling. Bonus: NASDAQ:TLT also provides a safe hedge to a market collapse or recession. Because market recessions would spark a cut in rates to help fuel a recovery, while stocks may tumble, this ETF would rally on a decline of interest rates to help stimulate a falling economy. Thesis : long Commons or 2025 dated Credit Spreads
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ZachSap
6
FX Price Action Ahead on Growing Rate DivergenceLast week was busy for major central banks. During a 60-hour window, rates were set for 60% of the global economy, from the US Fed, the ECB, to the BoE. Central banks’ announcements caused a frenzy in markets. The pivot to a dovish stance by the US Fed contrasted sharply with hawkishness from the ECB. This paper summarizes rate announcements and their market impact. It also dives into Yen dynamics as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets tomorrow. CAUTION FX TRADERS: GROWING RATE DIVERGENCE AHEAD Renewed divergence in monetary policies was evident from rate announcements by the major central banks. After more than a year of moving in tandem, central banks’ stances are shifting. The Fed is signaling rate cuts sooner. Meanwhile, ECB and BoE insist that rates need to stay higher for longer to fight sticky inflation. As interest rates in the US remain elevated relative to other major economies, the Fed has ample room to slash sooner. Inflation in the EU has contracted at a rapid clip relative to the US. However, economists expect EU inflation to rebound in the near term with fading base-level effects. Inflation in the US is expected to average 2.4% in 2024 compared to 2.7% in the EU and 3.75% in the UK, as per respective central banks. The US economy is strong with robust economic growth, resilient consumer spending, and solid PMI numbers. FED HAS PIVOTED TO DOVISHNESS The FOMC opted to keep rates steady with their statement pointing to the end of the rate hiking cycle. Most notable was the Fed’s updated economic projections & dot plot. It showed faster-declining inflation, slower GDP growth, and faster rate cuts. The Fed’s dot plot of rate expectations guided towards three 25 basis point (bps) cuts next year. Markets were expecting five rate cuts before the Fed announcement. Following the Fed meeting, markets now anticipate six rate cuts. BOE REMAINS HAWKISH The Bank of England opted to keep rates steady with a hawkish pause. The BoE statement indicates further rate hikes if inflationary pressures remain persistent. “The full effect of higher interest rates has yet to come through, posing ongoing challenges to households, businesses and governments," ~ BoE Market Policy Committee ECB JOINED THE BOE WITH A HAWKISH PAUSE ECB decided to keep rates steady with a hawkish pause. ECB President Christine Lagarde asserted that rate cuts were not being discussed yet and rates may even need to go higher to bring inflation under control. ECB noted that tighter financing conditions were leading to demand contraction, which weighed on pushing down inflation. Economic growth is expected to remain subdued. ECB estimates gradual ramp up in growth from 0.6% for 2023 to 0.8% for 2024, and to 1.5% for both 2025 and 2026. BOJ DECISION IS MOST UNCERTAIN WITH A THORNY JOB ON HAND The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce their rate decision on December 19th. It has maintained ultra-low interest rates all year while others hiked aggressively. Recent statements by BoJ Governor Ueda signal a pivot away from the ultra-low policy. "Managing monetary policy will become even more challenging from the end of the year and heading into next year." ~ Kazuo Ueda, Governor, Bank of Japan on 6/Dec Governor Ueda’s statements have led to market expectation of upcoming monetary tightening in Japan. JPY has strengthened 6% relative to the USD over the last month. Despite Ueda’s statements, BoJ pivot remains uncertain. Inflation in Japan is running hot and above US inflation. Moreover, wage growth and economic growth in Japan have been moderate despite high inflation creating stagflation risks. Consumer spending and wage growth remain muted despite record profits. Feeble Yen is boosting Japanese exporter profits. Nevertheless, the BoJ has been setting up a change in monetary policy. Earlier this year, it raised the cap on JGB yields and eventually changed the cap from a rigid limit to a loose reference. Some economists consider this a prelude to eventual scrapping of the YCC altogether. CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS HAVE CREATED DEEP RIPPLES ACROSS MARKETS Commodity markets reacted positively to the rate announcements. The Fed’s signal of upcoming easing opened the door for commodity demand to rise. Precious metals are likely to benefit from asset rotation out of US treasuries while Crude will benefit from higher economic activity from lower interest rates. Equities surged on Fed pivot. Small-caps and Mid-caps outperformed the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500. Both SPX and NDX also extended gains. Bond yields fell sharply following the FOMC decision. Yields fell to their lowest level in four months. One-year bond yields performed the best while thirty-year performed the worst. LEVERAGED FUNDS ARE BULLISH EURO, STERLING, AND BEARISH YEN Asset managers and leveraged funds are net long on Euro FX futures. Asset managers and leveraged funds are net short on Yen and Pound futures but have reduced net short positioning over the past few weeks. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The Fed’s dovish stance plus the hawkishness of European central banks will result in dollar weakness relative to Euro and Sterling. Upside risks to the dollar persist with stronger economic data and inflation resurgence forcing the Fed to reassess its stance. To gain from the weakening of the dollar against the euro and sterling, investors can buy into CME Micro FX Euro and GBP futures. A long sterling provides higher upside than long euro given higher inflation in the UK. Policy uncertainty in Japan is unlikely to usher in a pivot in the short-term. The JPY is likely to weaken against the dollar despite DXY weakness. To harness gains from weakening Yen, investors can establish a long position in CME Micro JPY Futures. Hypothetical Trade 1 & 2: Long EUR and GBP Entry: 1.0960 Target: 1.1150 Stop Loss: 1.0860 Profit at Target: USD 238 (= 1.1500 - 1.0960 = 190 pips = 190 x 1.25) Loss at Stop: USD 125 (= 1.0860 – 1.0960 = -100 pips = -100 x 1.25) Reward-Risk: 1.9x Entry: 1.2720 Target: 1.3120 Stop Loss: 1.2490 Profit at Target: USD 250 (= 1.3120 - 1.2720 = 400 pips = 400 x 0.625) Loss at Stop: USD 144 (= 1.2490 – 1.2720 = -230 pips = 230 x 0.625) Reward-Risk: 1.75x Hypothetical Trade 2: Short JPY Entry: 139.57 Target: 146.28 Stop Loss: 137.97 Profit at Target: JPY 67,100 (= 146.28 - 139.57 = 671 pips = 671 x 100) Loss at Stop: JPY 16,000 (=137.97 – 139.57 = 160 pips = 160 x 100) Reward-Risk: 4.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:M6E1!
by mintdotfinance
Comparative Analysis of US and UK EconomiesDear Traders, I would like to offer my perspective on the major economic drivers for USD and GBP. Like the famous investor John Bogle says, "The market may be crazy, but it's not entirely insane. Fundamentals matter." This analysis compares key economic indicators of both countries in order to explore potential impacts on the GBP/USD currency pair in the long term. Examining GDP, growth rates, interest rates, inflation, jobless rates, government finances, external balances, and population dynamics displayed above, I intend to provide insights into the relative strengths and challenges of each economy. ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE USD exhibits a larger GDP and higher growth rate , implying a more robust economy. They both have similar interest rates, but USD's higher growth puts it in a position of advantage. INFLATION, JOBLESS RATE, AND GOV. FINANCES GBP faces higher inflation, which affects it purchasing power against USD. Both nations show low jobless rates; the UK maintains a lower debt-to-GDP ratio (good for GBP). EXTERNAL BALANCES AND POPULATION DYNAMICS Both countries have current account deficits, but the UK's larger deficit may affect its currency negatively. USD represents a significantly larger population, influencing economic scale. MY TAKE Understanding the economic dynamics of USD and GBP is crucial for interpreting potential influences on the GBP/USD pair in the long term. From the economic data and analysis presented above, it is evident that USD shows economic strength , while GBP shows stability . In the light of this, I expect a stronger USD (DXY) in the coming weeks or months. The currency pair may see fluctuations as institutions assess these strengths and challenges, but my bias on the GBPUSD pair is BEARISH. A break below 1.2451 will likely send the pair to 1.2207 price region or even lower.
Short
by Samuel124
3
US CPI Data: Dollar Down As Rate Uncertainty Sustains VolatilityAs the clock ticks towards 13:30 GMT, financial markets are bracing for the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, a pivotal metric that provides a snapshot of the current state of the United States economy. The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, making it a crucial indicator for gauging inflationary pressures. Against the backdrop of the recent dichotomy in US inflation trends, where rates have reduced from alarming figures in 2021 to a current 3.2%, the forthcoming CPI figures are anticipated to shed light on the continued trajectory. This reduction in inflation, although positive for economic stability, has occurred alongside a somewhat unconventional stance by the Federal Reserve. Traditionally, central banks opt to raise interest rates to curb spending and counteract inflation. However, the US Federal Reserve has maintained a steadfast position in increasing interest rates for over a year, even as inflation trends abate. This seemingly contradictory approach has prompted speculation within financial circles, with analysts debating the motives behind the prolonged interest rate hikes. The anticipated November CPI data is expected to show a 3.1% year-on-year increase, a slight dip from the 3.2% recorded in October. Additionally, annual Core CPI inflation is forecasted to remain steady at 4% for November. These figures will be closely scrutinised to discern any shifts or continuations in the recent trends. Interestingly, the foreign exchange market has already signalled early sentiments ahead of the CPI release. The British pound exhibited strength against the US dollar in the early hours of the London session, reaching a value of 1.2580 at FXOpen. This movement is an intriguing indicator of market sentiment and may reflect expectations or reactions to the anticipated CPI figures. As the financial community awaits the unveiling of the November CPI data, the juxtaposition of decreasing inflation and persistent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve adds an element of complexity to the economic narrative. The numbers released will not only impact currency markets but will also influence broader economic outlooks and potentially shape future policy decisions. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Trading this week's fundamental events The market's attention will be fixed on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2023 scheduled for this Wednesday, with the expectation that the US will maintain interest rates at a 22-year high. Investors will have an opportunity to scrutinize the Fed's statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for any indications of potential rate cuts in 2024 (or lack thereof). One day prior to the Feds decision, the US is also poised to unveil essential inflation data. Forecasts suggest a marginal uptick of 0.1% in November consumer prices. Turning attention to Europe, traders will focus on rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), both occurring on Thursday. The BoE is predicted to maintain borrowing costs at a 15-year high while reiterating the necessity for elevated rates. Any commentary from the bank deviating from this outlook could potentially cause ripples in the market. Eurozone inflation dropped to 2.4% last month, down from over 10% a year earlier, following ten consecutive rate hikes. This decline brings the ECB's 2% inflation target into view and makes a further rate increase unlikely. Goldman Sachs has forecasted that the European Central Bank's meeting in April will mark the initiation of its first rate cut, followed by a 25 basis points cut at each subsequent meeting throughout the year.
by BlackBull_Markets
$CNINTR - Interest Rates Cut- The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. The cuts follow reductions in other interest rates last week. The LPR sets the interest that commercial banks charge their best clients, and serves as the benchmark for household and corporate lending. The one-year rate affects most new and outstanding loans, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of longer term loans, such as mortgages. This is the first time the PBOC has cut both LPR rates since August 2022, when renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn were pummeling the economy.
ECONOMICS:CNINTR
by Mr_J__fx
BOND YIELDS - Expect to See Minimum 20% Interest Rates...Have you ever encountered the notion that less can be more? Well, that's precisely why it has taken me considerable time to present this update concept regarding Bond Yields. This analysis carries profound implications for every global market. What we're witnessing here holds the potential to trigger the most significant economic downturn in our lifetime—the impending prospect of the Greatest Depression. The issue at hand is human complacency. In today's world, there's a pervasive disregard for the past, dismissing it as old news. However, nothing could be further from the truth. Our society seems destined to repeat the same errors due to our complacency, particularly in an era dominated by instant gratification. We persist in borrowing from the future at an unprecedented rate, marking the pinnacle of leverage and record debt compared to household income, which is at historically low levels. I take my time delivering this information to ensure the utmost quality in my analysis, even if it means minimizing my output. Stay tuned for more insights to come.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
2
IWN Russel Index ETF ShortIWN on the reliable daily chart has been trending down for two in a descending channel as shown on the chart with upper and lower trendlines drawn with the tool. The Stochastic RSI oscillates in the interval between oversold and over bought and presently is well overbought at nearly 100. While the RSI may double top like it did in July, it is at least right now at the first top. The zero lag MACD is confirmatory with a K/D line cross well above the histogram. I will play this by buying a put option at a strike of $ 150 for October 24 If Biden tries to prompt up the market to gain a re- election and is successful, this will get stopped out. If interest rates are not pulled back by the fed soon, small caps will continue to get crushed. On the other hand when rates are pulled back, they will be nimble and recover quicker than the large caps and it will get stopped out. I think the fed will pullback rates to help Biden out, although the fed is not partisan ? Oil prices in their downward trend lend support to a slow fall off in the inflation rate. What goes for IWN also goes for DIA.
AMEX:IWNShort
by AwesomeAvani
Market Update - December 1 2023 Bitcoin climbs as SEC speeds up spot bitcoin ETF review process: Bitcoin (BTC) continued to grind higher this week, reaching a new yearly high of over $38.5k, as market participants continued accumulating BTC ahead of the potential ETF approvals at the start of next year. The SEC announced it would open the comment period for its review of applications submitted by asset manager Franklin Templeton and crypto-native firm Hashdex, leading to speculation that the regulator may be lining up “every applicant up for potential approval by the Jan 10, 2024 deadline.” Investors continued to accumulate BTC, including an unidentified whale that has been gaining attention after purchasing ~12k BTC, worth more than $450 million, over the past month. Microstrategy also announced that it bought another ~$600 million worth of BTC in November, bringing its total holdings to 174,530 BTC. Federal Reserve Governors appear to diverge on interest rate hikes ahead of December meeting: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to have its last meeting of the year on December 13, with the market widely expecting rates to remain unchanged. On Tuesday, two separate speeches from Federal Reserve governors differed on how they see the path forward on inflation and interest rates. Fed governor Michelle Bowman suggested that more rate hikes may be necessary to bring inflation back down to 2%, and notably hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller appeared to ease his stance, suggesting that more hikes are not needed. USTC and LUNC skyrocket amid Binance perps listing and airdrop news: Following rumors that there may be a Terra Classic USD (USTC) revamp backed by bitcoin and news that Binance would be a USTC perpetuals listing, USTC and LUNC unexpectedly gained investor attention this week. FTX estate given approval to sell off trust assets: The FTX bankruptcy reached a key milestone this week as the estate was granted approval to sell its trust assets worth roughly $873 million at current prices. The added supply from these sell orders could cap price action for some of the assets. Notably, Solana (SOL) continued its rally to ~$60 despite FTX rumored to be selling SOL from its estate in early November. 🏛️ Topic of the Week: Interest Rates ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
1
$EURUSD Correction ImminentFX:EURUSD has been navigating sideways since January amid economic challenges, rising interest rates, and Western economic uncertainties. Approaching yearly resistance at 1.10806, a rebound towards 1.05335 support is expected. By the end of the first financial quarter, a breakthrough of yearly resistance is anticipated, solidifying new support. This aligns with expectations of improved global financial conditions and a revival of consumer confidence. #ForexAnalysis #EURUSD #FinancialMarkets #EconomicOutlook #TradingStrategy #MarketTrends #GlobalFinance #CurrencyPairs #YearlyResistance #SupportLevels #ConsumerConfidence #FinanceNews
Short
by wikitrades
2
Big themes for 2024 – forecasters call a weaker USDIt's that time of year when forecasters get to work and calculate the necessary assumptions to plug into their models to offer year-ahead forecasts. In theory, strategists loath making such calls, but in the investment arena expected returns are important for asset allocation, so economics teams work closely together with FX, bond, and equity teams to make calls for the quarters ahead. Naturally, if any of the many assumptions – such as GDP or consumption - prove to be incorrect it can have important flow-on effects on one’s call on bond yields and the USD, and therefore deriving a future value on equity returns can be challenging. For traders, where a strategist sees the AUDUSD or S&P500 by Q1 or Q2 offers absolutely no information advantage at all – in fact, for some, it can lead to an emotional attachment and a directional bias. This is especially true when we consider that it is the economists/strategists who will alter their forecasts to be closer to the market if there is a big move in that market against them. Where I think a trader can find value (from these calls) is from the thesis behind the calls. Strategy is a key consideration here – for example, a scalper wouldn’t care one bit about the prospects of yield differentials or eroding carry values. But for a swing and certainly position traders the laid-out thesis can help identify upcoming economic, monetary policy or even political trends which can heighten their ability to manage risk and even loosely assist with sizing trades. Looking into 2024, we can see Bloomberg’s survey of opinions in EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY for the 4 quarters of 2024, as well as the median estimate on central bank policy rates. We can that 2024 is expected to be a year of rate cuts, but it is also expected to be a year of a modestly weaker USD - as always there is a strong dispersion in views. So, why the central theme of USD weakness? Well at a very simplistic basis, the thesis is: • US GDP has been incredibly resilient, but with a decline in personal consumption, we are expected to see the GDP fall to around 0.5% YoY by Q324. The FOMC central forecast of 1.5% GDP by the end of 2024 looks too optimistic and may be revised lower in the March FOMC meeting. • US nonfarm payrolls are averaging around 200k at present, but with a cooling of the labour market, the view is we should see NFPs fall to around 30-50k per month, with some even feeling we get negative prints (i.e. net job losses) by Q324. The unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually to 4.4%. • US Core PCE inflation is expected to fall to 2.6% by Q3 – still above the Fed’s 2% target but the trend and trajectory lower is what matters. • Amid the economic dynamic portrayed above the Fed can cut the fed funds rate, and ease policy to a more neutral setting. • Europe and the UK are recording low growth now, but while the US slows these economies are expected to see modestly better growth in 2H24. • For those who subscribe to the USD ‘smile’ theory, the belief is we would see mean reversion on the right-hand side of the ‘smile’. • China’s housing market and FDI remain a source of concern, but Beijing’s increasingly aggressive policy response to provide liquidity to developers may ring-fence many of the concerns and support GDP around 4.5% to 5% – Europe and Australia stand out as beneficiaries if the market gains greater confidence around China’s many economic risks, and should we see outperformance from China’s capital markets. What makes me cautious about this view? 1. If the Fed cuts rates in 2024, so will most other G10 and EM central banks and presumably at a faster clip 2. The US swaps market is already pricing three 25bp rate cuts by November 2024 and if we consider economics in the UK and Europe, I’d argue it’s the Fed that will be less likely to live up to the level of discounted rate cuts. 3. If the USD is to underperform, realistically we need to ask which currency steps up as a USD challenger…. 4. If not to the US, where will global investment capital flow? Unless the rest of the world improves while we see disappointing US growth and big tech becomes wholly unattractive, will we really see global investment capital headed with conviction to Europe or China? 5. If the US does look like its headed for a recession, global equity markets would most likely trend lower, and credit spreads widen. If the Fed are easing in a period of equity drawdown and higher volatility, then the USD would likely still perform well 6. With Donald Trump proposing a 10% tariff on all US imports, should he become President in November, that policy alone could be a big USD positive. On current polling and according to the betting markets, Trump has a fair chance of capturing the Electoral College vote to return to the White House. 7. The Fed’s balance sheet will likely contract at a faster pace than that of the ECBs. We can go on – however, the fact is traders react to price action and should be humble to changes in price action, sentiment, and cross-asset volatility. This means having an open mind to whatever comes our way in 2024. It is interesting to see the thesis for the direction of FX and rates markets, and maybe that will come to fruition to shape our trading environment. However, so often these calls prove to be wrong, and we are reminded that having an emotional attachment to a future price or direction will serve you poorly as a trader.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
EUR/USD: Trends Amidst Fed Caution and Technical AnalysisThe foreign exchange market, a dynamic arena where currencies engage in a perpetual dance, is currently witnessing notable shifts in the EUR/USD pair. This analysis delves into the intricate interplay of both fundamental and technical factors influencing the Euro against the US Dollar. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to monetary policy and recent technical developments, we explore the potential for a downtrend in EUR/USD. The aim is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics, linking the Fed's commitment to interest rate management, the impact of slowing US inflation, and the technical chart patterns that may shape the future trajectory of this critical currency pair. Join us in dissecting the nuances that contribute to the potential downward movement of EUR/USD, with an ultimate target set at 1.05719 by the year's end. Fundamental Analysis: Cautious Fed Monetary Policy: In its recent meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reiterated its cautious approach to interest rate management, choosing not to raise rates. This decision reflects a policy focused on economic stability and vigilance against potential negative impacts. Impact of Slowing US Inflation: The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates only when necessary, particularly in relation to inflation control, indicates a concern for the balance between economic growth and price stability. A slowdown in US inflation could alleviate pressure for interest rate hikes. Euro Strength Amid Dollar Decline: The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar, partly due to market concerns about a potential decline in the value of the Dollar. Investors may be seeking alternative investments in the Eurozone deemed more attractive. Technical Analysis: Resistance at the November 21 Pivot Point: On November 21, EUR/USD encountered resistance at the pivot point of 1.09594, which represents the highest level in the past three months. Failure to surpass this level can be interpreted as a rejection by the market to push prices higher. Potential Bearish Reversal: Failure to breach the pivot point resistance could signal a potential bearish reversal, especially if followed by further price declines. This may indicate buyer fatigue and seller strength, potentially leading to further declines. Target Price of 1.05719: Aligned with fundamental analysis, the potential decline in EUR/USD could be a response to tighter US monetary policy and the increasing allure of the Dollar. The target price of 1.05719 is considered a realistic level given market conditions and supporting fundamentals. Conclusion: Fundamental analysis indicates that the Fed's cautious monetary policy and the decline in US inflation could provide additional support for Dollar strength. Meanwhile, technical analysis, with the pivot point at 1.09594 as the highest in three months, highlights resistance and the potential for a bearish reversal. This combination of factors forms the basis for considering a short position on EUR/USD, with a target price aimed at 1.05719 by year-end. Monitoring both fundamental and technical developments is crucial for risk management and making informed trading decisions.
Short
by fardycurry
2
Economic Lessons From 2023We entered 2023 with a pessimistic consensus outlook for U.S. economic performance and for how rapidly inflation might recede. As it happened, there was no recession, and personal consumption posted sustained strength. Inflation, except shelter, declined dramatically from its 2022 peak. The big economic driver in 2023 was job growth. Jobs had recovered all their pandemic losses by mid-2022 and continued to post strong growth in 2023, partly due to many people returning to the labor force. When the economy is adding jobs, people are willing to spend money. The key for real GDP in 2023 was the strong job growth that led to robust personal consumption spending. For 2024, labor force growth and job growth are anticipated by many to slow down from the unexpectedly strong pace of 2023, leading to slower real GDP growth in 2024. And there is still plenty of debate about whether a slowdown in 2024 could turn into a recession. Followers of the inverted yield curve will point out that it was only in Q4 2023 that the yield curve decisively inverted (meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term yields). It is often cited that it takes 12 to 18 months after a yield curve inversion for a recession to commence. Using that math, Q2 2024 would be the time for economic weakness to appear based on this theory. Only time will tell. The rapid pace of inflation receding in the first half of 2023 was a very pleasant surprise. Indeed, inflation is coming under control by virtually every measure except one: shelter. The calculation of shelter inflation is highly controversial for its use of owners’ equivalent rent, which assumes the homeowner rents his house to himself and receives the income. This is an economic fiction that many argue dramatically distorts headline CPI, given that owners’ equivalent rent is 25% of the price index. Once one removes owners’ equivalent rent from the inflation calculation, inflation is only 2%, and one can better appreciate why the Federal Reserve has chosen to pause its rate hikes, even as it keeps its options open to raise rates if inflation were to unexpectedly rise again. The bottom line is that monetary policy reached a restrictive stance in late 2022 and was tightened a little more in 2023. For a data dependent Fed, inflation and jobs data for 2024 will guide us as to what might happen next. Good numbers on inflation or a recession might mean rate cuts. Otherwise, the Fed might just keep rates higher for longer. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CME_Group
12
DXY Analysis 10-11-23Overnight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets with his comments that "the bigger mistake remains not getting rates high enough" and that "the US economy has been stronger than expected". These hawkish comments spurred market anticipation that the Fed is not done with the current rate hike cycle, lead to a sharp increase in the DXY. The DXY broke out of the consolidation, first testing the short-term 50% fib retracement level (105.35) before rising to consolidate just under the 106 round number level and at the 50% fib retracement level from the longer term. While the DXY could retrace briefly to retest the 105.65 level, look for the price to climb and break above the 106 level to trade higher toward 106.25
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
GOLD SELL HAWKISH FEDDear Ztraders, A decline in the price of gold due to hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary can be understood through the relationship between interest rates, inflation expectations, and the opportunity cost of holding gold. Interest Rates and Opportunity Cost: Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases because investors could potentially earn higher returns from interest-bearing assets like bonds or savings accounts. In a hawkish environment, the Fed signals a willingness to raise interest rates to curb inflation or maintain economic stability. As a result, investors may shift their funds from gold to interest-bearing assets, leading to a decrease in demand for gold and a decline in its price. Inflation Expectations: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. When the Fed adopts a hawkish stance, it may be interpreted as a measure to control inflation. If investors believe that the Fed's tightening policies will effectively control inflation, the perceived need for holding gold as an inflation hedge diminishes. Consequently, investors may sell off their gold holdings, contributing to a decline in its price. Strength of the U.S. Dollar: Gold is priced in U.S. dollars globally. When the Fed adopts a hawkish stance, it often leads to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for investors using other currencies, potentially reducing global demand for gold and putting downward pressure on its price. Risk Sentiment and Equities: Hawkish commentary from the Fed may signal a belief that the economy is strong and that monetary policy needs to be tightened to prevent overheating. In such an environment, investors may shift their focus towards riskier assets like stocks, especially if the interest rates on bonds become more attractive. This shift in risk sentiment can lead to a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to a decline in its price. It's important to note that market reactions can be complex, and various factors beyond Fed commentary, such as geopolitical events, economic data releases, and global economic conditions, can also influence the price of gold. Additionally, investor perceptions and expectations play a crucial role in determining how markets respond to central bank communications. Greetings, ZTRADES
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by ZILATRADES
3
Real Interest Rate: How It Affects the Economy and Forex MarketReal interest rate is the interest rate adjusted for inflation. Nominal interest rate is the reported rate, while real interest rate is the actual rate that the borrower receives after accounting for inflation. The formula for calculating real interest rate is as follows: Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate - Inflation rate For example, if the nominal interest rate is 5% and the inflation rate is 3%, then the real interest rate is 2%. Real interest rate plays an important role in the economy. High real interest rates can encourage investment and economic growth. Conversely, low real interest rates can dampen investment and economic growth. Real interest rate has a significant impact on the forex market. An increase in the real interest rate will make the domestic currency more attractive to foreign investors. This is because foreign investors can earn higher returns from their investments in countries with high real interest rates. An increase in the real interest rate will cause the domestic currency to appreciate against foreign currencies. This is because foreign investors will increase demand for the domestic currency to invest. A decrease in the real interest rate will cause the domestic currency to depreciate against foreign currencies. This is because foreign investors will reduce demand for the domestic currency to invest. Here are some examples of the impact of real interest rates on the forex market: In 2022, the US Federal Reserve (The Fed) raised the real interest rate. This caused the US dollar to appreciate against other currencies. DXY USDJPY USDDKK USDCNH In 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the real interest rate. This caused the euro to depreciate against other currencies. EURCAD EURCHF EURSEK Governments and central banks can use the real interest rate as one of the instruments of monetary policy to influence the exchange rate of the currency. For example, if the government wants to increase the exchange rate of the domestic currency, the government can raise the real interest rate. Real interest rate can be used to predict the movements of currency pairs. Currency pairs with higher real interest rates tend to appreciate against currency pairs with lower real interest rates. Here are the steps for using real interest rate to predict the movements of currency pairs: Collect data on real interest rates from the two countries whose currencies form the currency pair. Compare the real interest rates of the two countries. If the real interest rate of country A is higher than the real interest rate of country B, then the currency pair A/B will tend to appreciate. For example, the real interest rate of the United States is 1.8%, while the real interest rate of Japan is -3.1%. Therefore, the currency pair US dollar/Japanese yen (USD/JPY) will tend to appreciate by 4.9%. Real interest rate is only one factor that affects the movements of currency pairs. Other factors that should also be considered include economic and political factors that can affect the demand and supply of the two currencies.
Education
by DNP-FX
Head & Shoulders on AUDUSDThe AUDUSD fell from the 0.6480 level following the RBA's decision to hike rates by 25bps on Tuesday. The retracement failed to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, forming a head and shoulders pattern on the AUDUSD. Anticipating recovery in strength on the DXY, look for the AUDUSD to break below the neckline at 0.6415 to signal further downside, with the next previous swing low at 0.6325 a possible target level. A more conservative sell signal would be to wait for the price to break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6395
by JinDao_Tai
Simple Investing Strategy, Affordable for all!Hey! Everybody wants to get rich. But not many from us know what it takes. In this article let's discuss Investing income from annual percentage yield (APY) . Key point is the percentage of income can be different from your location, but lets make our calculations from 8.0% APY. Why this strategy is Affordable for ALL? Well, for calculation I've used only $161 of monthly investing. I understand for some person this is nothing, and for another it is a lot. But you can calculate your own affordable investing amount per month and use it. Consistency is the key! Another point why its affordable, its because you don't need to have a lot of money at the beginning. You can start from minimal deposit allowed by service/fund/bank (APY provider) where you allocating your funds. Please, note, this is simple and affordable investing strategy. But still THIS IS NOT 100% SAFE STRATEGY... There are several risks of losing your money after all. Mostly this risks depends on APY provider, so I recommend to change your APY provider over a time, and to secure your funds use multiple providers. Let's see how we get this numbers and first of all it is important to keep consistency during all your investment journey. Remember, this way can make you millionaire and can create a fortune for your kids. To understand how this works, let's see what is Compound Interest: Compound interest is the concept of adding accumulated interest back to the principal sum, so that interest is earned on top of interest from that moment on. The act of declaring interest to be principal is called compounding. Financials institutions vary in terms of their compounding rate frequency - daily, monthly, yearly, etc. Your savings account may vary on this, so you may wish to check with your bank or financial institution to find out which frequency they compound your interest at. I used monthly compounding to calculate final value. With savings accounts, interest can be compounded at either the start or the end of the compounding period (month or year). Compound interest formula Compound interest, or 'interest on interest', is calculated with the compound interest formula. Multiply the principal amount by one plus the annual interest rate to the power of the number of compound periods to get a combined figure for principal and compound interest. This formula is base of all interest calculations. To get easier process of calculation, I have used online Compound Interest Calculator. Best numbers we can get if we start investing early, but it happens we see right information too late, and we ask ourselves "Is it good time to start?" — I can say for sure, YES! Always good idea to start investing in your savings account. Trading is trading, but investing is a little different. You can invest in markets, or in savings accounts. Now let's see "worst case" — you starting your investing journey at 40 years old. How much you can earn on savings account until 60? I have calculated it with calculator, and used only $161 investments/savings per month with APY of 8%. You can see after 20 years of savings this amount of money (pretty much affordable for many people out there) you will get about $95,464 Final Value. Very impressive. Imagine if you can save more from your income each month... For example if you can save $1000 monthly, you will get $592,947 Final value after 20 years on your Savings Account. Middle scenario — investing for 30 years on your savings account. Until 60 you can earn solid $241,547 Final value, investing only $161 per month! Now if you can invest about $500 per month from your income you will get amazing $750,147 Final value. And of course best scenario — start investing on savings account early from 20y.o. This way you can get $565,799 Final value by 60 y.o. And if its possible to save more, let's say $250 monthly, you can get $878,570.30 Final value by 60 y.o. So in order to get rich, you don't need to invest a lot of money. Just make you investments consistent, and improve your financial education. Hope this article can inspire you to create your savings account and plan your future. Best regards, Artem Crypto
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
126