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Intermarketanalysis

Bitcoin Tops and Bottoms Before the S&P500Is Bitcoin a good barometer for the broader market? The chart laid out above suggests this is a possibility - and indeed, it would make a lot of sense, considering how risk tends to peak prior to tactical and cyclical corrections in the stock market, and Bitcoin is broadly considered to be a risk asset. Note how the 2017 macro top in BTC foretold a top in the S&P just 5 weeks later, and in 2018 BTC bottomed just a few weeks before the S&P. Yet again, this relationship held during the 2020 COVID crash with BTC finding a bottom just two weeks before the S&P. Is the recent top formation in Bitcoin signaling potential weakness in the S&P500 that is yet to come? With breadth deteriorating across major indices, the almighty dollar (DXY) finding support and shaping up for a potential double bottom, and the least amount of bears on the AAII survey since Feb 2018, it's possible that the S&P is in for a deeper pullback, one that is well-deserved after such an incredible run from the COVID crash lows. One thing I'm looking for to see confirmation of a tactical top in the broader stock market is the Financials Sector (XLF). If we can't hold above that former major resistance, then we are likely in for a messy S&P over the summer. Remember, assets can correct in both price and time. We may just be in for some more sideways rather than an outright move down. If the S&P does begin to correct, it is safe to assume that Bitcoin may once again find a constructive bottom a few weeks before the S&P. I'll be on the lookout for all of the above and will keep this post updated. Till then, happy trading!
BNC:BLX
by CalmCapital
Dick’s Sporting Is RunningDick’s Sporting Goods has been running. Now, after a brief pause, it may be ready to keep moving. The first interesting pattern on the daily chart is the price gap on May 26, which DKS recently tested (and partially filled). That resulted from a blowout quarterly report, with same-store sales up 115 percent. Notice how price came down to test and hold the May 10 peak and the rising trendline that began in December. DKS also came within $0.44 of testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) that session, but couldn’t even get that low. A mix of powerful forces are fueling the rally. Like many traditional retailers, DKS was left for dead even before the pandemic. But now it’s rebuilding its business around experiences and benefiting as the economy reopens. There’s also a short squeeze underway. Something else happened with the intermarket trends: The SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF just crossed above its 50-day SMA. This suggests the broader consumer discretionary sector (which includes DKS) is coming to life as the summer heats up. Of course, summer is followed by-back-to-school, which is followed by Black Friday and Christmas. That timeline, combined with an improving economy, could keep sentiment focused on traditional retailers for several more months. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NYSE:DKSLong
by TradeStation
1
So you wanna SHORT NZD/JPY? Here is why it could get tricky!Hey tradomaniacs, since Jerome Powell stated that "there is no inflation" the market keeps betting against the FED and tries to poke Jeromes nerves with rising YIELDs. This is obviously bad for equities, because higher returns provides a great alternative to Stocks, which is causing a strenght for the US-Dollar. So why could a short NZD/JPY be choppy? NZD/USD currently reacts so sensitive because stocks are falling. NZD/USD is a risk-on-currency and since correlations have changed in the market almost all majors against USD having very huge standard deviations. This is basically because the economy improves when US-DOLLAR falls, due to the fact that the provided liquidity, or inflation, boost consume and investments -> Higher grow expectations -> Good for stocks. Now we got these correlations in the market: YIELDS and US-DOLLAR rise -> Equities fall Equities fall -> NZD falls YIELDS rise -> JPY falls When NZD and JPY both tend to fall due to the current correlations, NZD/JPY could be the worst NZD-pair to short, or generally to trade. The best JPY-Pair to trade is currently USD/JPY, as DXY moves up while JPY falls as long as the inflation-worries continues. Non the less, we could see stop-losses getting triggered and so a fall of NZD/JPY. Compare NZD/USD to NZD/JPY, and you will se what I mean. :-) LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
Short
by Trading2ez
6
Gold Standard or No Gold Standard that’s a question!President Nixon in 1971 ended the practice of allowing foreign governments to exchange US dollars for US gold.(End of Gold Standard) So far, US Dollar tries to survive, but it fails anytime because we are in Bearish grand super cycle, after gold standard ended. As a little example, we see how gold compensate in the opposite direction of DXY! But the real deal is that all the fiat currencies and precious metals are losing the ground to Bitcoin. The main reason for that is not the intrinsic value of Bitcoin, but is that Bitcoin offers cheaper transactions..! Which is the main purpose of inventing currencies in the first place! Moshkelgosha
TVC:DXYShort
by Moshkelgosha
4
S&P 500 Holding a TrendlineMonday’s hard selloff was a jarring start to the New Year, but it didn’t do a lot of technical damage. Most importantly, the index held two levels. First, its low of 3663 matched a rising trendline in place since mid-November. (It began with the first pullback after the breakout to new highs.) Second, SPX managed to close slightly above 3700. While this level has no clear significance on the chart, it’s a potentially important psychological level. Some intermarket conditions are supportive of the S&P 500. First, bond prices remain under pressure. More downside in bonds would lift yields and potentially help financials and cyclicals. Second, oil is rallying and today pushed above $50 a barrel for the first time in 10 months. The sector mix also has a bullish bent because cyclical and “risk-on” groups are gaining (especially energy, materials and industrials). Meanwhile safe havens like utilities and consumer staples are down. That reflects confidence in the economic rebound. (Today’s ISM manufacturing report crushed estimates and jobless claims have recently been better than feared.) Despite these positives, it’s important to recognize that yesterday’s drop created a large bearish engulfing candle on SPX (with high volume). Even if it doesn’t cause a reversal, this pattern could hold the broader market in check for several weeks. More rotation could be in store, with investors shifting away from large growth names in favor of smaller cyclicals. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
3
Bullish Flag On Gold - New Highs In 2021?Low interest rates and QE from central banks caused strong bullish trend across different assets. But what we see for the last few months is pullback on gold and US bonds, while stocks are printing new highs due to covid-19 vaccine that brings back optimism for move” back to normal life and economy” in 2021. However, stocks are very high and they may face a retracement next year, maybe even based on “buy the rumour sell the news impact”. In such case investors may look to hide in bonds or metals. From a technical point of view we see US Treasurys bullish on a weekly scale, and they are unfolding five waves up from 2018 low where 5th wave is still missing as shown on 10 year US notes chart. If you are familiar with Elliott Waves, then you know that impulses need to be completed with five waves so new highs can be in the cards in 2021. In fact, current price action since March on the 10 year is slow and sideways, so based on personality and characteristics we believe it’s corrective wave 4. If we are correct, then more upside on 10 year is also going to be supportive for gold that may breakout of a bullish flag. Some traders and investors may also look at TLT here around current trendline support. Happy holidays and all the best in 2021. Trade well! GH
CBOT:ZN1!
by ew-forecast
1
Bonds and Oil May Show Reopening Excitement FadeFor over a month, the stock market has priced in a post-Covid reopening. Now there could be signs of that trend exhausting itself. First and foremost is the recent double-bottom on the iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF. We cited downside in this instrument twice as it hit the top of its channel. But it made a slightly higher low/double following the last drop. That could suggest the intermediate-term downtrend, in place since August, has run its course for now. There are also some potential positives for bonds as coronavirus cases and jobless claims rise. Even with a vaccine coming, the near-term employment picture is grim because restaurants and hotels appear to have maxed out their rehiring for now. Recent data from the Labor Department suggests they could start bleeding jobs again. Second, there’s the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Officials have indicated they want to start buying longer-term Treasury bonds, which this ETF holds. Incremental mention of the new policy could help boost TLT. Third, TLT just had a bullish inside week, which means its range is tightening. Next are the intermarket conditions. Oil rallied on reopening hopes and the vaccine news. That could have been “buy the rumor.” Now that Pfizer’s shipping its drug, will investors “sell the news?” The fundamentals on oil haven’t been great either. OPEC+ has achieved little in terms of lasting production cuts. Inventories have also been higher than expected for several weeks. (Last week EIA’s total rose by 15.2 million barrels, the biggest increase since April.) Finally, crude-oil futures have a outside day/spinning top candle stick today. The major energy ETFs like SPDR Energy and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production also have bearish engulfing days. Oil and energy tend to move in the opposite direction as bonds, so that could be another potential positive for TLT. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NASDAQ:TLT
by TradeStation
Ethereum Gets Comfortable over $500 as Altcoins MoveEthereum had a bullish weekend. It pushed above the previous 2020 high of $489 on Friday morning and quickly proceeded above $500. It held its ground above that level and has continued upward through today. This is important because there’s no obvious resistance on ETHUSD before the May 2018 high of $832. That’s about 40 percent away. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is near but under its December 2017 record peak. This creates the potential for BTCUSD to drift as money shifts into altcoins. Speaking of altcoins, this weekly chart of Bitcoin dominance shows not only a downward trendline in place over the last 14 months. It also shows an overbought condition on stochastics and a large bearish outside candlestick last week. If the trend continues downward, it would mean money is shifting from BTCUSD toward altcoins. And, of course, ETHUSD is the biggest altcoin. Finally, remember that the deadline for the Ethereum Deposit Contract is early tomorrow. This is a key first step toward launching the blockchain’s major upgrade. It may provide a potential catalyst for prices – especially if the needed Ether is deposited on time. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
E
by TradeStation
The Nasdaq Is Struggling at This LineLast week we cited the falling trendline in Apple. So far, it hasn’t broken out. Not surprisingly, this pattern appears in other key names like Facebook and Advanced Micro Devices. Most importantly, it’s also on the Nasdaq-100’s daily chart. The tech-heavy index has been fighting this downward trend for most of November. This morning it made an attempt to rally above it but only stalled and made a lower high versus Tuesday. Another key chart feature for NDX is the large bearish engulfing candle on November 9 – the same day Pfizer announced its coronavirus vaccine. The stock market has undergone major shifts since then as investors embrace the reopening narrative. Energy, financials, industrials and small caps have soared. The old tech leaders have been neglected. It’s also important to note that NDX initially led the bounce after the election. But then it got hammered by the vaccine news. That kind of failed rally attempt might be especially bearish because it produced a false breakout. Finally don’t forget about bond yields, which may rise now that bond prices are near the top of their channel. Higher yields can reduce the appeal of high-multiple growth stocks. Traders may want to keep their eye on NDX and consider its downside potential, especially if the broader market pulls back. Nasdaq and growth stocks may become a source of funds for investors looking to add cyclicals like financials. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
TVC:NDQ
by TradeStation