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Intermarketanalysis

SPX Pre FED Interest Rate Decision Analysis - 4 Hour ChartGood Evening Traders, I hope everybody is doing good. In this analysis, we will have a look at the SPX. We can see that the SPX is currently in a range of 2555.86 and 2684.14. However, I am expecting a break lower this week. I am expecting a hawkish FED on Wednesday in it' FOMC Statement which can be a catalyst for a move lower. With that said, I think a break of the rising trendline from 04-02-2018 to the downside will occur this week for a retest of the 2-year rising trendline. This range play can us take for at least a few days/weeks. Having a look at the second chart which is the volatility index (VIX). You can see that the instrument is trapped in a bullish triangle pattern. As long as it stays above 14.58 it should extend higher, which will put pressure on the SPX as they are negatively correlated to each other. I am expecting a retest of the 2593.82 trendline in the ideal case. This view will be invalid once SPX breaks 2684.14 resistance. I hope you enjoyed this view. Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view presented is not any trading recommendation, just personal view.
SP:SPXShort
by TradeFxTrends
EURUSD Getting Ready For A Bounce Higher!!Hello Traders, After the ECB interest rate decision and EURUSD falling more than 100 pips, I want to share with you my current 1/4 hour perspective. I have no doubts about it that the EURUSD is still bullish in the weekly chart and daily chart. Tomorrow I will publish a detailed analysis on the EURUSD in weekly timeframe explaining that. However, coming back to the short-term view. After breaking the resistance at 1.21475, the EURUSD accelerated the weakness today. But don’t get fooled. These moves are just another pullback to get into a possible bull market again. Why the EURUSD is bullish has a lot of implications in my view (fundamentals, Intermarket, Technical etc.). In fact a lot of Intermarket reasons. Anyway, in this analysis, I want to give you a small insight into the Intermarket analysis and why I think the EURUSD will probably turn higher soon, once it reaches the area of around 1.2021. Below the EURUSD chart, you can see the correlations coefficient indicator. Showing the correlation between the EURUSD and USDNOK. You may now think why the USDNOK. Well, there are a lot of reasons which I can’t explain here. But one reason is the correlation to each other. You can see that the indicator is indicating an overall negative correlation in time. Which basically means that when the EURUSD is rising for example in most cases the USDNOK should decline and vice versa. Obviously, we need to understand that they don’t move exactly the same but you can see for example the blue arrow in the EURUSD moving lower whereas at the same time USDNOK moved higher. Now, having a look at the USDNOK you can see that the market broke its falling trend line to the upside. However, USDNOK is currently trapped in a range between 8.05541-7.62619. The idea is that USDNOK is at the top of the range. My bias is that it will fail to break out higher and falls again and get be trapped in the mentioned range. So when I expect the USDNOK to trade lower like shown in the chart and taking into consideration that EURUSD has a negative correlation to USDNOK I need to say that the EURUSD will soon bounce higher when USDNOK goes for the pullback. And that is the view. I am expecting maybe next week the EURUSD to move higher once it reaches the 50% retracement at around 1.20217. Let’s see. Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view present is not a trading recommendation just personal view. Bitcoin 3.34% -
by TradeFxTrends
Junk Debt Again at Very Attractive Levels to ShortPerhaps this is another dead-cat bounce? These custom support resistance indicator lines show decent places to enter or exit. The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter. If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long. If your instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting. For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts). Find out more. Send Private Mail (PM) to @MasterCharts
AMEX:JNKShort
by mastercharts
CHF returns to previous levels- long USDCHFUSDCHF usually fluctuates in relatively narrow range. We were down this range for a couple of weeks, but now it's time to go back. We have met the lower trend line and has successfully pushed off. I see a higher high&low completed now (you should never buy falling knifes, I always aware of them and construct my ideas to avoid this type of trading - follow me, and you'll never suffer from them too). There are 3 reason more: falling S&P, RSI broke 30 (very strong signal) and Commitment of Traders Report tells us about big players selling their francs. I prefer to be with them. I have open half of position and is going to double on blue line as shown. At the same level I'll lift my SL to breakeven. My TPs are on higher trend line, but I will perform trailing stop just in case too.
Long
by ArtKon
NZDUSD protected shortToday I can see a trading opportunity for NZDUSD. Previous week was quite difficult for US economy, and we saw economy drop (and some profitable trades, follow me for such ideas right on time). The last months US equity and currency are inversely correlated and DXY itself becomes stronger. So, fundamentals are ok. From the technical side we have closed below the trend line, which is quite strong signal to sell for me. That's why I am entering short, but protecting it with small SL. Doing so I get acceptable TP/SL ratio and insure myself from powerful bulls sentiments. If the position will progress and pair will close below weekly MA 200, I would open one more for more profit. If not, I would watch ahead for longs. This market is very intresting now, and I don't want to leave it out.
Short
by ArtKon
EURUSD More Upside In The Short-Term.So, the eurusd is making a higher high and higher low sequence in the short-term. Structure wise we expect the market to test the 1.1150 levels before the weekly downtrend could resume. If the market breaks below 1.07775 we wouldn’t be looking for more upside anymore. The reason for that are intermarket relations, structure and correlations reasons. We don’t want to go into details because we want to protect our client’s priority. Overall, we don’t like this pair either to buy or sell and as of for right now we will be on the side-lines. Never risk more than 0.5% per trade and never overleverage your account otherwise you will lose your account. Cheers Your Secrets2Trade Team
by secrets2trade
4
More Downside For TNXThe TNX is currently correcting the 93.43% up move in the mid of 2016. To make long story short, we want to buy tnx at around 1.99% IF it can manage to break the current low at around 2.17%. Consequently, with a break of the low of 2.17% and TNX reaching 1.99% we believe that the correction in the indices or not over yet. So in case of a leg lower in TNX we expect indices to follow the downside path of TNX. Why we expect this is because of intermarket analysis reasons. We cant go into detail because we want to protect our clients privilege. Hope that helps. Cheers, Your Secrets2Trade Team
TVC:TNXLong
by secrets2trade
Still More Downside For DXYHello Traders, We hope you have been a nice weekend. In this outlook, we will be going to have look at the DXY. (Dollar Index) As the DXY recently broke to new lows. It confirmed a lower low sequence. To make the long story short. The dollar index needs at least one last push to the downside at around 97.76. From there it could finally start its new daily up move. Dont get tricked by the recent up move. Eventually, the Dollar index should move lower. Consequently, the EURUSD should also move higher. Why we think the Dollar index will fall is intermarket and sequence reasons. This will be only available for our clients. Cheers Your secrets2trade Team
TVC:DXYShort
by secrets2trade
Possible Gold Long SetupHey guys, hope everybody is fine. First of all, we want to apologize for not being active for the last couple of weeks, as we are currently updating our website. But we will start from today updating all charts. :-) Okay, so let's start with a possible long trade in Gold. As you might know gold and silver are in an intact long trend and we are expecting gold to reach around 1300 in the midterm. As gold is currently correcting, we want to take the chance and buy gold at around 1247 with a stop loss below 1227 and a potential target of 1300. So let's see whether gold makes another push to the downside or not. Please read the article below on why we think all commodities and the currencies will gain in the near future. Hope that helps. Cheers
TVC:GOLDLong
by secrets2trade
NZDUSD Daily Long Hey guys, we gonna try buying NZDUSD for a long term trade to the upside. Entry will be at around 0.67565 and Stop below 0.62790. Out of our Intermarket research and analysis, we will be looking at higher commodity currencies across the board. So buying it as a daily trade would be a good idea! Why we think that NZDUSD will go higher is only avaible for our clients. Please keep in mind that this is our opinion. And opnions are different. Always use a stoploss while trading and never risk more than 0.5% from you account. Cheers
Long
by secrets2trade
AUDCAD further bearish sentiment?Hello Traders, today we would like to share with you the AUDCAD as it seems that it may push lower. As market hit for the third time our reaction point at 1.03, is bounced back and is making in lower timeframes a potential S-H-S formation. This may be first clues that a lower extend to the downside is possible. Looking at our intermarket indications, which always gives us a clue about potential market capital flows, it seems that further outflow may follow. The only indication which currently seems to recover a little is AUDCAD vs. Commodities ratio. Therefore market may oscillate a little further around trendline break before potentially falling further to the downside! We will wait today's close and see if potential trading opportunities occur. Let's see. We will keep you updated! Cheers, Secrets2Trade
Short
by secrets2trade
4
Copper next Short?Hello Traders, today we want to share with you the OANDA:XCUUSD as it seems to reach our next critical area. Looking at the long-term perspective, after the US elections in November 2016, the market broke out the consolidation phase around 2.0000 and initiated a long movement. Currently market consolidates again around 2.44-2.80 and on the H4-perspective market currently moves in our critical area of 2.69 for a possible reaction to the downside before market may hit weekly resistance again around 2.800. If we take a look at our inter-market indications, it shows that we are currently moving in an extreme inflow area where capital flow may reach a point to turn and switch direction on mid-term. We currently take the ratio of Copper vs. INDEX:SPX , INDEX:DXY , TVC:US10Y . We always mention the important of inter market analysis to time our trades and the movement around reaction points better. As it seems that investors may take their profits at current reaction point which could lead to lower prices. Taking into account the current situation it may seem that the market trades a little lower before we see the breakout to the upside towards weekly resistance level of around 2.800. We wish you much success and hope you had a great and successful trading week. As always please use a stop loss while trading and take care. To you success, Secrets2Trade
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by secrets2trade
SPX 5 rejections at 2350Hello Traders, today we would like to share with you the SPX as it shows very interesting moves currently around the 2350 level. "White House says vote on healthcare bill scheduled for 19:30GMT (via. Reuters)." Therefore, the market currently tumbles sideways as uncertainty arises, everyone is looking at a decision which could move the SPX as it currently flirts with 2350 zone on the downside, after the break of this zone on Tuesday. Will we see lower prices? First clue was the 5th rejection of the strong resistance zone at 2350. However, important is today's close together with new from the White House. We always mention the importance of intermarket flows, as we believe that investors only repark their money due to sentiment and global macro-economic conditions. Therefore, we always keep in mind the in-and outflows with the help of our intermarket indications that lead us towards better timing when making a trading decision. As you might know that timing is one of the most important things when it comes to trading together of course with risk/money management. As seen in the chart, two of our three intermarket indications already moving in lower areas territory. They might be the possibility that they soon reach extreme zones of more outflow of capital to other asset classes. We always take into account the BIG 4: Currencies , Bonds, Stocks and Commodities . Only the SPX/USDX ratio shows still more potential to the downside. Movements could be soon momentum driven based on intermarket indications. As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. We wish you much success, The Secrets2Trade Team
TVC:SPXShort
by secrets2trade
3
EUR/USD at decisive zone!Hello Traders, today we want to share with you the FX:EURUSD as it currently flirts with our decisive zone. As we taking a look at the previous movements towards our reaction point, which is characterized by a clear momentum driven upwards sequence, we now need to be cautious about current continuation. If we take a look at our inter-market indications, it shows that we are currently heading towards lower outflow levels. This however indicates interestingly a divergence with current movement as market continued to rise and our outflow basically (besides minor corrections) moved straight upwards after the FED rate decision and Netherlands elections. We currently take the ratio of FX:EURUSD vs. INDEX:DAX , TVC:GOLD and TVC:EUBUND . We always mention the important of inter market analysis to time our trades and the movement around reaction points better. As it seems that investors may take their profits at current reaction point which could lead to lower prices. If we do not get a momentum driven daily or at least 4-hourly break to the upside, we might see some correction moves around current zone. First heading area will be around 1.077 and then 1.07 or even lower, if market reacts at current zone. We wish you much success. As always please use a stop loss while trading and take care. To you success, Secrets2Trade
by secrets2trade
NZDUSD at a very decisive zone! Bullish correction bias? Hello Traders, Today we want to share with you the FX_IDC:NZDUSD as it currently flirts with a very decisive zone around 0.697! The current fall within the FX_IDC:NZDUSD is on one hand caused by the USD strengths, but more importantly because of the Commodity weakness which lead to the New Zealand Dollar weakness. Long-term sentiment within the NZD is more likely bearish as Graeme Wheeler (Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand) always point out the need of a devaluation of the NZD to increase growth. This is caused by the current global situation surrounded by uncertainty and downside risk as China still seems to show some growths weaknesses. New Zealand however, is currently traded in a big wedge formation on mid-long-term as it seems that in the next 3-6 month we might see a significant break to the downside. After the sharp fall in the FX_IDC:NZDUSD it seems that market may find temporary support around the 0.697 zone and will initiate a long move towards 0.712 or even higher. Supported by a significant intermarket sign, which points a potential inflow of capital very soon! This may underline this setup. Our intermarket analysis always helps us time our trades better. We see a good timing of a potential long trade as it seems to hit outflow lows currently. Our measurement is currently the ratio of NZDUSD vs. the SPX500 , NZDUSD vs. Gold and NZDUSD vs. the 10Y U.S. Bonds . Our inter-markets indication gave good accuracy in the past for timing our trades at price relevant levels. However, keep in mind that one of our intermarket indications still remains in outflow territory however with a sign to inflow signs. Therefore, it could be possible that the NZDUSD may tumble around current zone for a little before initiating bullish correction move. Keep in mind this week on Friday we will receive important US employment data which may be decisive for next week's FED interest rate decision. Current odds are around 84.1%. So if we see due to these events a daily close with more than 0.25% below the 0.697 zone, our potential long setup may be invalid and we need to evaluate again. We will be looking for interesting entry levels and keep you updated once we see interesting signs of turning north again. As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. Cheers
Long
by secrets2trade