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Intermarketanalysis

GBPUSD Next Short Opportunity?Hello Traders, Today we will share with you guys the FX_IDC:GBPUSD as it seems to show soon further depreciation towards 1.21. However, it currently seems that we see more inflow of captial as the USD as a whole lost some strengths after Yellen speech on Friday. Market will very closely watch next weeks NFP on Friday next week as key driver for March rate hike. This could be decisive if we see further upwards correction or a turning towards heading south again. Supported by a significant intermarket sign, which points a potential inflow of capital currently! This may underline this setup as it seems that market will correct a little further to the upside. Our intermarket analysis always helps us time our trades better. We see a good timing of a potential short trade as soon as our indication hit outflow levels again. Our measurement is currently the ratio of the GBPUSD vs. INDEX:FTSE and the GBPUSD vs. Bonds. Our inter-markets indication gave good accuracy in the past for timing our trades at price relevant levels. We will be looking for interesting entry levels and keep you updated once we see interesting turning points. As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. Cheers, Secrets2Trade
Short
by secrets2trade
Oil Long Idea, Intermarket potential capital Inflow?Hello Traders, Today we will share with you guys the TVC:UKOIL as it seems to show upwards pressure again towards $57 and may breaking resistance zone. It currently flirts with significant intra-day support level. Supported by a significant intermarket sign, which points a potential inflow of capital very soon! This may underline this setup. Our intermarket analysis always helps us time our trades better. We see a good timing of a potential long trade as it seems to hit outflow lows currently. Our measurement is currently the ratio of oil vs. the FX_IDC:USDCAD , oil vs. Indices and oil vs. the TVC:TNX . Our inter-markets indication gave good accuracy in the past for timing our trades at price relevant levels. We will be entering our first small long call at $55.35 to head to $56.95. If we get price confirmation of bullish movement, we might buy on pullback in lower timeframe. We will keep you updated. Risk/Reward: ~3.0 Notice if the market closes 4-hourly below $55 this setup will be diminished. As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. Cheers, Secrets2Trade
TVC:UKOILLong
by secrets2trade
Silver Mid-term Short OpportunityHello Traders, Today we would like to present you TVC:SILVER as it seems to decline in near future. Let us break down the analysis. Starting with the fundamentals/macro overview as usual: TVC:SILVER is currently not a very much watched instruments in the financial market, however it shows some interesting pattern. These pattern we would like to provide you. As TVC:SILVER is in our trading watchlist for commodities combined with TVC:GOLD for the precious metals, it may shows some capital outflows coming in near future for mid-term. After President Trump will talk in front of the congress by 2:00AM gmt in which he may give a statement of his tax reform and budged plan. "World financial markets will be scrutinizing the 9 p.m. address in the House of Representatives for specifics of how the Republican president aims to make good on promises to tackle tax reform, boost infrastructure spending and simplify regulations he says are harming business." (source Reuters) His content of the speech and tone will be important. He says to bring "one of the best tax reforms which the U.S. had in quite a long time." In addition markets predicts with a probability of 62.0% vs. 31.0% (yesterday) a rate hike of 25 basis points. This may confirm bearish sentiment towards precious metals as we currently see in TVC:GOLD as well, as it forms our well said bearish pattern. However, keep in mind that the speech by President Trump at 2:00AM gmt could completely change the picture in worst case. As we look at our intermarket indications we we get confirmed with our statement, as they currently warn for a big upside moves on mid-term. They mention a short-midterm outflow of capital! We always mention the importance of intermarket flows, as we believe that investors only repark their money due to sentiment and global macro-economic conditions. Therefore, we always keep in mind the in-and outflows with the help of our intermarket indications that lead us towards better timing when making a trading decision. As you might know that timing is one of the most important things when it comes to trading. As seen in the chart, our two of our intermarket indications showing a divergence and currently moving in selling territory which might indicate a soon outflow of capital towards other asset classes. One of them is currently turning south ( Silver vs. Currencies). We take into regard always the BIG 4: Currencies, Bonds, Stocks and Commodities. Looking at the technical perspective and current trading range, we see a clear trend channel in where TVC:SILVER currently moves. However, it currently flirts with a decisive zone (our 50% Resistance Level). Around that level it will be decided what trend direction we see next. As market bounced several times at the drawn trend line above that red drawn decisive range, we might see sooner or later trend reversal patterns. Together with all our analysis, this might confirm our standpoint that TVC:SILVER might move to the downside (first turquoise box or further to the second turquoise box) before continuing long term bullish trend. This move may be initiated in the next 0-3 weeks. If we see a bearish pattern we might take advantage of getting at least a 4:1 Risk/Reward out of the trade. So, summarizing everything together, we believe that TVC:SILVER might fall to the downside at least on mid-term before continuing long term bullish trend. This underlines our intermarket indications that are currently diverging bearish. The fundamental perspective may give Silver a driver to to potential bearish sentiment around the decisive territory as we soon get interesting trading setups. We wish you much success, The Secrets2Trade Team
TVC:SILVERShort
by secrets2trade
U.S. Dollar Index Weekly Outlook + BIG Long Move Possible?The US-Dollar Index is in an intact impulsive long trend. After the weekly break of the sideways range a pull back towards the break out level or in other words around 100-100.5 zone was initiated.The possible upside breakout of the 1 ½ - year sideways range also underlines the current situation within the US-Dollar. After the Federal Reserve stopped QE 3 in October 2014 and started to think about rising rates the currency moved in a sideways range of uncertainty about a next potential rate hike. As the FED said that economic data should be waited to recover. For one and a half year the market moved in a range between 92-100. This is also shown in all USD-crosses such as the EUR/USD, that the USD made choppy moves on weekly time frames. After the market indicated an upside move and a potential fundamental driver of the US election, the market finally broke out of the sideways range and closed above 100 on a weekly basis which confirmed the breakout. After the FED rose rates in December 2016 for another 25 basis points, market reacted with further upside movement. This fundamental driver gave technicals a sustainable kick to the upside. For the near term, fundamental drivers play with the question of the next rate hike by the FED and tax policy by President Trump, which will affect the US-Dollar heavily as well. We definitely keep an eye when evaluating new mid-longterm bullish US-Dollar trades. However, currently market flirts again with the break out zone and seems to start its bullish move to the upside. BUT for an clear confirmation of a new start of an impulsive move the local highs ofaround 103 should be broken with a weekly close price, then we could easily see next weekly resistance of 107.75-110 with a potential pullback before. 107.75-110 is the price target of the projection from the sideways range. Bullish candle formation in weekly chart confirms that this breakout might not be a fake one. This indication told us that the uptrend might give a little pullback to the downside before continue due to an overbought market. This scenario is currently for some weeks of flirting with the resistance. We currently await for two scenarios for the DXY. Two scenarios: - Market finds support and initiates further bullish movement and breaks the resistance zone of local highs at 103.8 (break out highs). This would be a continuation move that the next impulsive the long side has been confirmed. - Market corrects a little further to the downside and holds support around drawn trend line after initiating further bullish momentum We remain bullish on long-term. As we look at our intermarket indications we could get confirmed with our statement, as they currently cooling down from capital outflow. We always mention the importance of intermarket flows, as we believe that investors only repark their money due to sentiment and global macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, we always keep in mind the in-and outflows with the help of our intermarket indications that lead us towards better timing when making a trading decision. As you might know that timing is one of the most important things when it comes to trading. As seen in the chart, our two of our intermarket indications showing a cool down of capital outflows and currently moving in buying territory which might indicate a soon inflow of capital towards other asset classes. We take into account always the BIG 4: Currencies, Bonds, Stocks and Commodities. As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care.
TVC:DXYLong
by secrets2trade
3
Intermarket analysis: Currency performance YTD and forecastingIn this chart I'm sharing my breakdown of the relative strength analysis of currencies, as suggested by Ashraf Laidi in his book 'Currency trading and intermarket analysis', a great read that was reccomended to me by David Alcindor. Thanks for that one David. I'll quickly summarize my train of thought here: I see the cnh and gbp as interesting long prospects right now, based on the strong accumulation bases on chart. YTD performance wise, the Yen is the only positive one, and fundamentals favor it as a short candidate overall. EURUSD and CHFUSD are at the brink of turning into downtrend continuation plays, testing the weekly lowest high level. If sellers conquer this level, we can short these two against stronger currencies, ideally the most overextended to the downside to mean revert with. (Namely, CNH and GBP, right now. After a consolidation and new uptrend mode hgher, CAD, AUD and NZD. CAD, AUD and NZD might underperform the CNH and GBP right now, look for trades there until they are done consolidating. If both are trending up, better focus on other more dissimilar crosses (focusing on the weakest link, vs the strongest currencies). Long the dollar itself isn't favored, but, long USDCHF and short EURUSD, while long USDJPY might be a good idea soon. Don't trade if it's unclear, wait for a clean setup. GBP is currently above it's weekly mode, and basing for a move up, focus is on GBP longs primarily (fundamentals suggest either sideways or up until June at the very least, while fundamentals for CHF, EUR and JPY are quite bad. So, you know what to trade. I'll update this chart as we move forward and you'll see how useful and powerful this approach can be. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
11