Revolve will establish new channelRevolve has had a rocky time since its IPO, with lots of volatility and several breaks below critical trend lines. However, this company is profitable, undervalued, and highly rated, and in my opinion it's still a great value.
With Revolve having breached the bottom of its parallel channel today, it's likely to establish a new channel. I've drawn a couple possible channels and some trend lines, and I've marked the breakout zones with the play for each zone. I've also marked support and resistance from all-time highs, and you can also see the high-volume support node at 35.27.
Currently I'm playing this long on the basis of that volume support node.
Internet
Internet retail meeting resistance near previous highsAs my followers know, I've been following Stitch Fix and Revolve as both stocks take a dive today.
The plummet comes, surprisingly, just a day after strong retail sales data for June. It was the strongest quarterly retail sales growth since they started recording this data in 1992! However, that's mostly because Q1 was so weak that Q2 looks strong by comparison. Year-over-year, the numbers look much weaker.
Most of the strength, however, comes in the retail and consumer staples sectors, while the weakness is mostly in cars, building supplies, and furniture. (Incidentally, that means grocers and retailers are likely to beat estimates on next earnings, while hardware and auto companies are likely to miss them.) Overall, this should be good news for retailers like Revolve and Stitch Fix.
However, not only Stitch Fix and Revolve, but also the whole Internet retail sector is falling today against the S&P 500. That's partly because Internet retail is approaching highs from last May and the previous June-September, and it's partly because Internet retail got overbought against the S&P 500 on its hourly chart.
However, we're still above our moving averages and our MACD signal line. The sector will oscillate downward in the short term, especially amidst overall market weakness, but it should continue to outperform in the medium term. With strong retail data and excellent profitability, I remain confident in companies like Revolve and Stitch Fix.
RVLV testing channel bottomToday looks like a good entry on RVLV, with the price testing the bottom of its parallel channel. RVLV also has a volume support node at 35.27 and is close to oversold on the RSI. We just got an upward stochastic cross as well.
RVLV is undervalued and has bullish analyst ratings.
Strong Buy Signal on the U.S. Internet Stocks.The FDN (First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund) which essentially covers the U.S. Internet Stocks, is now comfortably trading above the MA50 on the 1D chart on strong bullish candle action (RSI = 69.026, MACD = 2.230, Highs/Lows = 3.3271). Through this price action a strong buy signal has emerged and has to do with the similarities of the mid 2018 - 2019 price action with the late 2015 - mid 2016 sequence. Not only the MA periods (Death Cross followed by a Golden Cross) and candle action (Highs, Lows, consolidation phases) are virtually identical but also the price ranges (-27% decline from highs).
If a +21.50% rise follows, then the peak of the current bullish sequence would be near 161.00. We are long on this asset.
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Stitch Fix poised for a turnaroundStitch Fix is at support from a high-volume node on the volume profile and from its 50-day moving average. It also has some RSI support around 38.
The stock just got some big analyst upgrades from Zacks and Goldman, which could serve as upside catalysts. The Internet retail sector is currently outperforming the S&P 500. S&P Capital IQ rates Stitch Fix as undervalued, with stable growth potential. Overall, both fundamentals and market sentiment are looking up for the stock.
However, Stitch Fix has some downward momentum, so it could fall through the 50-day MA before rebounding from 200-day MA support near 26. I don't expect it to fall any further than that, but in the worst-case scenario we could get as low as the high-volume node at 23.
IQ vs. NFLX: Identical IPO PatternsIQ if following NFLX's IPO price action. This can be seen throughout many of China's IPO's. Expect a sideways pattern into a breakout of some crazy magnitude. If IQ's breakout is identical to NFLX (740% Increase from the first bottom after the breakout), IQ Wave #1 = $380
Longterm trendline at riskAfter 16 years of bull trend, next month can be the last of this large uptrend. Attention at the close of the next months.
NASPERS LICKING ITS WOUNDS - IS RELIEF IN SIGHT?Established in South Africa in 1915, Naspers Limited is a media, internet and entertainment powerhouse with a footprint in more than 130 countries, and is one of the largest technology investors in the world today. The group’s principal operations are in e-commerce, video entertainment, print and online media.
Naspers shares have continuously been one of the JSE stocks, outperforming the all share index by almost 300%. Investors who decided to buy R 10 000 worth of Naspers shares in 2001, would be sitting on a return of more than R 1 million.
That is a fantastic record but a very large part of this performance is based on a really well timed purchase into the Chinese tech giant, Tencent. This presents a challenge for Naspers going forward because Tencent has plummeted in value on concerns that it can no longer keep scaling it's revenues. This is evident with the fall in Naspers share price. Naspers is also releasing MultiChoice in order to list as a separate entity under MultiChoice Group which may be adding to some serious uncertainty as this weakens their business diversity.
Let's look at the technicals
Weekly (pink): We can see that price has broken through a significant support trend line and there is a lot of supply in the market at this level, driving the price further. The break of the 38.2% Fib retracement level also indicates that the lower 50% retracement level is on the cards.
Daily (blue): This setup looks like a typical correction with the impulse on the left, the corrective structure and then the impulse on the right expected after 3 or 5 waves. I think it is quite possible that we will see the end of wave 3 on the 50% retracement level and will be looking for a reversal from there. We may also see a deeper correction so it is important to wait for the reversal to be confirmed before jumping into this one.
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Linton White
Green Box Markets
LONG TKAT @ $.6954 for Chinese Internet (KWEB) UpsideTechnical Analysis:
1. KWEB (Chinese Internet ETF): Expect a relief bounce here for Chinese Internet stocks ( BABA BIDU JD ) with a Hong Kong ( HKDOW ) & Shanghai ( DJSH ) market rally.
a. Holding 200weekSMA and 50monthSMA support here at $44 with record volume twitter.com
b. Very oversold on weekly timeframe
c. Strong price support at $41.00
d. 4/24/18 gap filled at $43.53
e. Possible reversion to mean: 2018 Chinese Internet % Total Returns (negative) very divergent from US Internet % Total Returns (positive)
2. TKAT (Takung Art Co) showing strong correlation with KWEB with more volatility, conveying a higher beta to Chinese markets. This will result in exceeding KWEB’s % gains on upside price movement.
a. Potential price double bottom $.63-$.68
b. Extremely oversold on weekly/monthly timeframes
c. Daily RSI uptrend from 29 (8/9/18) to 34 (10/11/18)
d. Large accumulation volume on 10/2 and 10/12
e. Testing 10dayEMA @ $.75
Fundamental Analysis: TKAT - Takung Art Company:
1. Takung Art Company fundamentals convey undervaluation and thus provides great risk/reward for China Internet/Software market rally
a. Price to Book = .49
b. Price to Sales = .61
c. Net Current Asset Value = 1.24
d. Cash to Debt = 1.43 – Strong cash position to outlast market downturn
e. Poor 2018Q2 and 2018Q3 earnings coupled with an overall bearish Chinese investor sentiment already priced into stock price
f. Company is expected to resume Listing Revenue (primary revenue stream) end of October – temporarily loss of revenue could be short-lived
g. Company plans to reduce G&A expenses by 10% in 2018Q3
Nice and Healthy Dip to $6900 and Now BTC Will Goes Up More $600As this dip happening after 5 days growth to $7400 it's really nice to have this healthy retracement. Now i'm looking even more bullish upward with target $7500 with that RSI level so rekt!
The first sentiment coming from a good news that I get and also from technical things: BTFD!
JD - JD.comEarnings coming up soon and I like JD overall. Low part of the range after a great 2017.
I went with a synthetic covered call, selling the Aug17 $39 put for $1.90 cr. This trade is around a 5% cash ROC within the next 35 days.
I'll go for 50% W or continue rolling this position out, collecting credit through time.
YY - Slaughtered after earningsThe fundamentals:
YY is a Chinese company with a popular streaming platform. Below is the summary of their latest earnings report:
YY reported revenue of $518 million, beating analyst estimates for $487.8 million and up 43% in local currency. It reported adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share, beating Wall Street's view of $1.52
With social platforms, it is beneficial to consider active user growth in addition to the top and bottom line. "Its monthly active user base for mobile livestreaming service rose 24% from the year-ago period to more than 77.6 million"
Analysts are optimistic about YY's future, with the majority upgrading to a Buy/Strong buy.
The technicals:
The run up to earnings set expectations far too high, and it is only natural that YY is seeing a massive 10% slump immediately after, even with a beat, similar to NVDA. It should be noted that with this slump, YY has underperformed QQQ YTD. 50&200EMA still indicates that the bullish momentum is there.
The play:
A good entry level is around $108, where the price seemed to settle before the massive run up to $124 right before earnings. Options buyers should wait for IV to settle down more before taking a position.
[ADBE] Leading Tech Stocks out of the Correction!Correction? Not for Adobe! Ahead of the curve on the same breakout setup as other names like MSFT and CSCO.
ADBE has the story, the ideas, products, etc. for the digital future.
+ Tech?
+ Software?
+ Cloud Integration?
++ Digital Media?
++ Barrier to Entry?
- Overdone Media Attention?
Adobe's been crafting their monopoly on digital media production tools by packaging, improving, and adding products to their most well known suite, Adobe Creative Cloud.
Instead of going on and on... just think, the word Photoshop is equivalent to saying Photo Editing as Kleenex is to saying Tissue and most people don't even know what Photoshop is!
They have a pseudo-monopoly on digital media production and online marketing tools for professionals and teenagers trying to be funny on Twitter.
DOGE looking to break the internet"Don't let your dreams be dreams" - the internet as $DOGE/BTC adds 10 sats. With it's market value around $0.01 USD / coin this isn't something you want to get into but fun to watch non the less as people goof around with the satoshi's they're making in BTC push right now.
Who said you can't have fun while sweating, right?!
IOTUSD 3H CHART IOTA ENTRY LEVELSIn the last post, a symmetric triangle was identified, after resistance break an immediate target was achieved, at next major resistance.
However, this resistance zone was not pose any resistance at all, so we could see a price rally to higher levels, and DMI confirms it. RSI and Stochastic (not shown) look overbought.
Market is currently struggling at the 0.786 Fibonacci Extension level. This could be a new entry level if broken towards the next resistance level at 1 Fibonacci Extension.
Next major resistance zone begins near $0.57. It seems unlikely to reach this level short term.
Trades could be opened right now at a 1.79 Risk/Reward ratio or even better, wait for a short term reversal and entry after uptrend is confirmed again. This would increase the Risk/Reward ratio.