SPX - A day in a life of a short trader Even if we had the FED meeting today - It was a clear and visible that selling pressure will lead the way. SPX started with a gap down and showed no attempt to close the gap at open or within first hour (initial balance). Right after intial balance we broke wit lower Bouhmidi-Band indicating more selling pressure to come. After two attempts to regain the first lower BB we saw in the last 30 minutes of trading more sell orders coming in and confirmation for trend continuation. At the end we close below of 2 sigma Bouhmidi-Band. SPX lost 1,6% at the end.
Intradaytrade
Gold price keeps rising above the trendlineDear friends! Today, the price of gold continues to hold at $2035 in the early hours of Wednesday's trading session and is still limited below the resistance level of $2040, despite having the opportunity to rise steadily to $2048 yesterday but failed to close above that resistance level. However, the long-term upward momentum of XAUUSD is still preserved.
According to yesterday's news, Gold reached its highest level in 2 weeks, supported by the weakness of the USD and lower bond yields, while the focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting to gain a better understanding of how the agency will cut interest rates this year.
Even the safe haven appeal of precious metals cannot resist the changing market expectations surrounding the central bank's monetary policy. The market's expectation that the Fed will actively cut interest rates could push gold to $2200 per ounce with an average annual price of $2100 per ounce. The question now is when and how long it will take for us to see that happen.
GBPUSD: Unpredictable fluctuationsDear friends, Today, January 30th, is still a quiet trading day for GBPUSD. It is currently hovering around the 1.271 level, with an unclear trend as it continues to hold a sideways pattern and mainly moves around the EMA 34 and 89 lines, converging.
The cautious market sentiment at the beginning of the week has helped the US Dollar (USD) remain strong against its counterparts and made it difficult for GBP/USD to gain momentum. However, this has not had a significant impact on this currency pair. Therefore, the market has shifted to a cautious stance ahead of two important events: the FOMC and the Bank of England (BoE) meetings on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
EURUSD: Continuing to search for a new bottomDear friends, currently, the EUR/USD pair is recovering some of the points lost below the 1.0800 level in the early trading hours in Asia on Tuesday. The recovery of the major currency pair is driven by the modest decline of the US dollar and lower US Treasury bond yields.
In the short term, there are expectations of an increase, but when looking at the longer-term trend, the weakness of this currency pair has not yet stopped. It has just surpassed the support level of 1.085 and still aims to regain momentum around the 1.075 level. If that price level continues to be broken by the bearish side, EURUSD still has another opportunity at the 1.0665 level as it is a significant support level that has helped EURUSD bounce strongly in the recent past.
XAUUSD: opens a new wave of price increasesHello dear friends!
Currently, in today's trading session, the price has completely escaped from the previous parallel downtrend channel. At the time of writing, precious metals are still below the supply zone of $2,038-2,042 and are trading within the familiar range, with the last support level at $2,015 that needs to be protected by the price increase.
In the short term, increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also benefit the price of Gold in the context of global safe haven shift.
Now, attention is shifting to the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data to get new insights into labor market conditions ahead of the Fed's policy announcement on Wednesday and the release of Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday.
With the current picture, we are expecting a short-term price surge with an expected increase to $2,060, while breaking above this resistance level will open up new opportunities for this precious metal as mentioned on the 12-hour chart.
XAUUSD - become cautiousHello everyone, I wish you a new day full of energy!
Today, the price of gold has experienced positive growth, currently trading around $2030, an increase of $12 compared to the previous day.
This price increase is largely driven by the demand for financial security, especially with concerns about the tense situation in the Middle East, leading to a strong influx of money into the gold market. Furthermore, the decline in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield has also increased the attractiveness of gold as an interest-free investment channel.
All eyes are now focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting at the beginning of the year, taking place later this week, as people are seeking clues about the timing and possibility of a US interest rate cut. This decision could have a significant impact on the price of gold, potentially pushing it to new highs or, conversely, risking a return to lower prices.
What about you? Do you predict that the price of gold will rise or fall in the near future?
BTCUSDT: flat, what's the next move?At the start of the new week, BTCUSDT continues to show strength with a sustained price increase since the previous weekend. Currently, the price is trading around 42,330 USD and has risen by over 300 USD in today's trading session.
This week, there are several important macroeconomic and cryptocurrency events. Let's explore which key altcoins might have a trend this week and how the price of Bitcoin could impact the performance of these cryptocurrencies.
USDJPY: Price slide after a series of days in the greenAs expected, USD/JPY continues to hold losses below 147.50 amid a weaker US dollar. The currency pair has rebounded from its lows but remains below 147.50 in early trading on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen is attracting some safe-haven flows due to deepening geopolitical tensions, while the US dollar remains weak as the Fed's decision has significantly weighed on USD/JPY in the short and medium term.
EURUSD: Haven't stopped falling yet?Last week, EURUSD did not receive much support as the main trend was downwards, breaking below the psychological support level of 1.090.
This common risk aversion sentiment, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has led traders to favor the US Dollar (USD), putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair and trading at a low around 1.083 today.
In the coming week, there will be several important news releases, particularly the US Housing Price Index and Consumer Confidence figures, which will provide more detailed information about the market. This careful consideration is expected to be reinforced after the upcoming statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday.
USDJPY: The downward momentum continuesUSDJPY opened today's session with a slight decrease, trading around the level of 147.75 and losing 0.25% during the day as it remains in a corrective wave, although still in an upward trend in the short term.
Therefore, the Japanese Yen attracts some safe-haven flows amidst deepening political tensions. The USD remains stable below monthly highs and may support USD/JPY. Traders can also await the important FOMC meeting in an uncertain environment regarding interest rate cuts.
Any further price decline is likely to attract buyers near the psychological level of 147.00, which would help limit the downside of the USD/JPY pair near the 146.45 area or last week's low volatility level. A convincing break below the following level could shift the short-term trend in favor of selling traders and push the spot price down to the horizontal support level at 146.700.
How will the gold price fluctuate in the new week?Dear friends, in today's trading session, XAUUSD is showing signs of an upward movement within a price decline. At the time of writing this article, the price is trading around the range of 2025 - 2027 USD, marking a 0.39% recovery and an approximate increase of 8 USD.
It can be seen that over the past two weeks, the global gold price has experienced slight fluctuations and its value has been fluctuating without a clear trend. Last week, gold fluctuated within a range of about 10 USD and failed to break out even when the latest report showed a "cooling" of inflation. However, things could change in the coming days as the Federal Reserve (Fed) meets and makes interest rate decisions.
Currently, the markets are expecting the US Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the meeting taking place this week and rule out any tightening possibilities in future meetings. The report on core personal consumption expenditure index released last week indicated that "cooling" inflation has led many to believe that an early easing scenario may occur. For this reason, many experts predict that the Fed may maintain a cautious tone at its first meeting of 2024, which could benefit gold.
Gold price today (January 29)Hello dear friends! Today, gold continues its downward trend.
It can be seen that the recent actions of the Fed have been less accommodating, indicating that interest rates may continue to rise and the USD will become even stronger. This will be unfavorable for the gold market.
Therefore, it is not surprising that we are quite optimistic that gold will not have any new breakthroughs from this downward trend, and the 2020 USD support level needs to be observed more closely. The EMA signal, along with the downward trend, further reinforces the decline of gold. The price target reaching the 1980 USD area continues to be emphasized.
EURUSD: Minimal price fluctuationsCurrently, the EUR/USD continues to trade below the resistance level of 1.0850 as the currency pair remains within familiar levels for the week. The Euro has been declining against the US Dollar due to a decrease in price flow after the ECB maintained stable interest rates and the US GDP grew faster than expected in 2017. At the time of writing, the price is trading around 1.0841, a decrease of 0.04% for the day.
My target after this slight decrease in the currency pair towards the support level of 1.0822 would be an increase with a Fibonacci target of 0.618, which is 1.0864, higher than the Fibonacci level of 0.5 at 1.0877. This is the final range where prices could react significantly.
There is still a possibility for further decline in EUR/USD, as evidenced by the continued downward momentum provided by the 34 and 89 EMA moving averages. And if this occurs, my long-term strategy would still be to sell with an expected decrease to 1.0822, followed by a breakout below this support level towards 1.0751, which could also be a range where prices could bounce back after a stormy period.
Gold prices increase but not reliablyThe gold price today seems to have remained unchanged from earlier this morning, mainly ranging between 2021 - 2022 USD.
Although the US GDP growth has exceeded expectations and core orders have increased, negative factors such as rising unemployment claims and inventory levels, along with reduced personal consumption, will pose challenges to the US economy. As a result, some investors have returned to buying gold. However, there are still many investors who remain on the sidelines, observing the market.
Inflation in Europe has decreased to 2.9%, prompting the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates. The European Central Bank predicts that inflation in the region will gradually decrease to around 2.7% in 2024.
Considering the above information, it will be difficult for the gold price to rise significantly given the positive economic growth in the US. This indicates that the world's largest economy will not experience a recession and will achieve the desired soft landing as expected by its central bank.
GBPUSD: Uptrend remains the sameWelcome to a new week of promising and productive trading!
The GBP/USD pair is trading within a narrow range just above the 1.2700 level during the Asian trading session. This is an impressive move from the bulls, as they not only successfully defended the key support zone at 1.2690 but also pushed the GBP/USD price higher from this point onwards.
Given the current landscape, I anticipate that upcoming GDP figures will highlight the underlying policy differences between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), providing short-term momentum for GBP/USD.
EURUSD: Forecast to medium-term analysisHello dear friends!
Currently, in today's trading session, the downward trend continues, despite some price adjustments that indicate a potential peak forming at 1.0933. The current support level is around 1.0816. If this level is breached, it may cause EURUSD to decline further, possibly reaching the level of 1.0750.
In the near future, it is expected that the interest rates in the US will increase, which will lead to a depreciation of this currency pair.
From the 12-hour chart, although EURUSD is trading relatively calmly with a consolidating status, the potential for a price decline is still being firmly reinforced. The EMA signal converges along with the downward trend as a resistance level for the price increase of EURUSD. The target for further price decline is emphasized.
GBPUSD: Weight change from decrease to increase in priceDear friends, currently the GBP/USD pair continues to trade within an upward channel during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday.
Today, the GBPUSD price is hovering around 1.2712, marking a 0.1% decrease for the day. After careful observation, we can see that this currency pair has broken through the psychological resistance level of 1.2700 due to risk-accepting sentiment. However, the release of preliminary Q4 GDP data from the US on Thursday could cause market volatility.
In the short term, the 4-hour chart indicates a potential downward correction, with an expected decline towards support levels below 1.2700, with immediate support at 1.2680 before 1.2650.
Looking ahead, the EMA signals and the upward trend support further growth in GBPUSD. The price target is still emphasized at 1.2800.
BTCUSDT: Trend is unclearHello dear friends! Today, BTCUSDT is trading at $40,108 and there isn't much volatility compared to the previous trading session.
Any breakthrough outside of the box in the current picture will cause significant price fluctuations.
My expectation is that the price will still decrease following the negative momentum from the market's previous downward trend. |
How about you? What is your neutral position?
Overview of GoldDear friends, the price of gold remains unchanged compared to yesterday's trading session, mainly fluctuating within a consolidated range. At the time of writing, the price is hovering around $2022, experiencing a 0.12% increase during the day.
Meanwhile, the stock market has surged while government bond yields continue to decline, providing short-term support for gold.
However, there is another major event on the horizon: the United States will release the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for December, which is a favored inflation measure by the Federal Reserve. This announcement on Friday may have a negative impact on gold by the end of the day.
Based on the one-day chart, there is a possibility of a bearish candlestick pattern formation (a descending pennant). I anticipate that gold will remain limited around $2040 and extend its downward momentum with an expected decline to $1978.
BTCUSDT: Falling from the price level of 40,000 USDDear valued readers, as I mentioned yesterday, BTCUSDT has broken out of its upward channel, leading to a significant decline in the price. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency market is trading around the $40,000 mark. The downward trend is strong as the price has surpassed several important support levels, namely $41,000 and $42,000.
Meanwhile, after the approval of 11 Bitcoin ETF funds, BTCUSD continues to decline on Thursday. It is expected that the price will reach $35,359. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you agree with me?
USDJPY: Becoming unpredictableHello dear friends!
Today, USDJPY is trading around 147.66 and is in a corrective wave within its trend, as the currency pair has just experienced a downward breakout from a marked support level.
Accordingly, the USD/JPY pair is undergoing a downward trend as market confidence recovers due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin implementing interest rate cuts in March. Currently, the probability of this scenario is estimated at around 50:50, indicating the uncertainty of market participants. The USD/JPY pair traded lower near the 147.50 level during the European trading session on Thursday.
The price has reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, making this a sensitive moment for sellers to continue their attack once again. In this scenario, the EMA 89 line will be retested and prices may further decline towards 145.500.
BTCUSDTBTCUSDT continues its downward trend on the fourth day of the week, surpassing the psychological support level of $40,000 and trading around $39,600. The strong support for further decline is evident as it trades below both EMA lines and shows a clear reversal signal from the EMA 34.
On the chart analysis and using Fibonacci, there is a possibility of creating a DOW after the correction phase has taken place. The low point below the 1.618 level (which is around $35,100) will be the first profit-taking opportunity for sellers at the current time and in the scenario mentioned above.
Where will the bears push gold?Dear friends,
Today, gold continues to operate in a downward trend channel, as evidenced by its price breaking out of the previous upward channel and dipping below $2,020 in Wednesday's US trading session. At the time of writing, the price is trading around $2,016, showing a 0.12% recovery for the day.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has announced that it will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5% in line with its January policy. This statement is slightly more hawkish than expected, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in April to about 40%. However, the stock market remains positive as Wall Street resumes its record-breaking rally due to better-than-expected earnings reports signaling economic health, which has a negative impact on gold.
The 4-hour chart shows a long bearish candlestick from the previous peak of $2,036 down to $2,011, stabilizing within this downward channel despite a slight correction. Further evidence for this bearish momentum is provided by the 34 and 89 exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a potential further decline. Immediate resistance is seen at $2,019, with immediate support at $2,011. Breaking below this support level will open up more opportunities for further decline in this precious metal.