USDJPY: Bears still have the upper handHello everyone!
Currently, USDJPY is moving below the support level of 152.00 after a false breakout earlier (as mentioned on the 1D chart). The pair is currently struggling to hold the psychological level of 150.00, with the aim of retesting the breakout zone before falling further.
Accordingly, the bearish outlook for today is further boosted, in case the trend line is not violated yet.
Intradaytrade
NF- XAUUSD - Market Expectations of a New ATH in 2024Hello dear traders!
In general, after yesterday's consolidation above the $2430 level, the price has rebounded, amid a stronger US dollar. Gold rebounded after data showed very narrow manufacturing activity, while US employment data highlighted a weak labor market ...
Accordingly, initial jobless claims increased by 14,000 seasonally adjusted to 249,000 in the week ending July 27. The number of jobless claims rose to the highest level since August 2023.
Therefore, the gold market has not been operating at full capacity as central bank buying and physical demand in Asia remain weak, it is expected that the gold market will continue to be interesting in the coming period and head towards a new ATH this year.
The focus is on new ATH today after the NF news was released. I expect the market to continue searching for new ATH this year.
Short-term levels to watch:
Resistance: 2470 - 2484
Support: 2443 - 2430
In the short-term, I expect the price to continue to correct from 2470 to consolidate before growing further. Gold is currently bullish (trend, sentiment and interest), so the nearest strong support level according to the Fibonacci tool 1.618 (2443) USD price could become a reversal zone for further strengthening. Potential target is 2483 - 2500 USD.
EURUSD: SELLHello everyone. Let's discuss and strategize today!
On the EURUSD impact factor:
EUR/USD remains firm above 1.0800, breaking a two-day losing streak in the European session on Wednesday. However, further upside momentum seems elusive, as traders prefer to wait for Eurozone inflation data and the Fed's policy decision before placing fresh bets.
On the EUR/USD fresh outlook:
Looking at the 1D chart, although the EUR/USD pair remains well supported as it is in a medium-term rising channel, it is currently showing signs of a downside correction. Against this backdrop, the 34 EMA and 89 EMA are converging, suggesting that the trend may shift from bullish to bearish. Accordingly, the recent candles showed a rejection at the resistance zone around 1.08718, which could lead to a short-term downtrend.
Resistance Level:
Resistance (SL) : 1.08718
Support (TP ): 1.07125
GBP/USD holds near 1.2850, barrier holds at channel boundaryHello dear traders!
GBP/USD retraced recent losses, trading around 1.2832 during Asian hours on Wednesday. Daily chart analysis shows the pair is in the narrow part of the descending channel, suggesting a consolidation phase or a possible reversal.
Technically, GBP/USD remains slightly below the downtrend line, currently at 1.2860, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart remains slightly below 50, reflecting a lack of buying interest.
On the downside, 1.2830 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend) acts as interim support ahead of 1.2800-1.2790 (psychological level, 200-period SMA) and 1.2750 (static level).
EURUSD: Discount in price channelHello all dear traders!
Currently, EUR/USD is stable above 1,0800, losing the recovery momentum in the European session on Thursday. The US dollar found a place after the decline due to the decision of the Fed. Looking forward, the US ISM PMI data will be the highlight on Thursday.
Looking at the panoramic picture, the discount trend of this pair of money will return if it is still under EMA 34, 89 (1,0822).
The trend of strong increase and bright prospects_ XAU/USDHello everyone, today we will together analyze in detail the situation of the gold market today based on the monthly chart. This chart gives us a lot of important information about price trends and important technical signs to note. Let's explore with me!
It is known that on the monthly chart of gold (XAU/USD), we can see that the current gold price is trading at $ 2,434. Accordingly, the chart shows that a parallel channel increases gradually (indicated by two blue lines), lasting from 1180 to the present, showing a stable and strong growth trend.
Meanwhile, gold has undergone the accumulation period from 2011 to 2024, in which the price passes and creates important support and resistance levels.
In March 2024, the gold price made a strong breakthrough with a big price candle on the monthly chart, marking a major change in the trend.
Technically, EMA 34 (blue) at $ 2,012.954 and EMA 89 (purple) at $ 1.756.728 are acting as important support levels.
Gold prices are currently trading on both EMA lines, showing that the increase trend is still being maintained strongly.
In addition, the clear display chart of parallel channels increases gradually with high probability that the price will reach the top of this channel in the near future.
This is a sign that the long -term growth trend of gold is still very strong.
According to the theory of Elliott wave, gold is starting to conquer the pulse wave (wave 3), usually the strongest wave and the potential to increase the price huge.
This sign strengthens the prediction of the strong growth of gold price in the near future.
Therefore, we have seen the return of big investors for gold in 2024, this will promote higher prices.
With large liquidity, big investors will continue to buy gold in a strategic way, pushing prices to a higher level.
Based on the technical analysis and signals from the monthly chart, we can predict that gold price will continue to grow strongly in the coming years. Potential growth can reach 300% within 3 years, bringing gold price to the peak of the parallel channel gradually increasing.
If you are wondering between investing in gold or Bitcoin, gold may be a safer and more potential choice at this time. The stability and growth potential of gold will bring significant profits to investors in the near future.
Let me know your thoughts on this analysis in the comment section and do not forget to "watch" to update more interesting investment ideas. Trading is not difficult if you have a good coach! Thank you and wish you a successful transaction.
Gold increased higher than 2430 after the news yesterdayHello dear traders!
The price of gold consolidating the strong momentum of the previous day to the highest level in two weeks in the context that the Fed will cut interest rates as soon as possible in September. Moreover, geopolitical risks and concerns aboutness Global economic downturn will continue to benefit from safe shelter from Xau/USD.
Accordingly, the technical trend continues to show that the buyer continues to be supported after the news yesterday, with the two peaks formed on the breakthrough channel the previous downtrend. In addition, the hat dynamic line (EMA) is nearly 2430 USD, continuing to provide support for gold price speculators. This has contributed to making the market hotter than ever. It is expected that this price increase will reach 2468 USD, if this level is surpassed, nothing is short of gold increasing higher than reaching 2483 USD.
At this time, the implementation phase will form. Karina is waiting for the trend change confirmation to strengthen the purpose. What is your thoughts on this issue? Do you agree with me?
Gold breaks down the price channelHi everybody!
Gold has regained success and is currently maintaining a psychological position of $ 2,400, currently trading around $ 2416.
In addition, although the trend of increasing is not strong, this precious metal has demonstrated the stable recovery, supported by the trend line that increased clearly. But! There are signs showing a potential resistance peak at 2430 USD. If this level is not overcome, the market can push the adjustment price to accumulate before growing strongly for the purpose of forming a new peak, possibly 2500 USD...
Sellers continue to lead the trend - GOLDHello dear traders! Let's discuss and strategize today!
Gold price today is trading at 2,380 USD/ounce, down slightly by 10 USD compared to yesterday's opening price of 2,390 USD/ounce.
Accordingly, the recent recovery of the USD has put pressure on the yellow metal. Specifically, the US Dollar Index rose about 0.3% to its highest level in more than 2 weeks, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
In addition to the recovery of the greenback, data from China shows that gold consumption in the world's largest gold consuming country has decreased, also affecting the direction of gold. The factor, gold's decline is even more closely identified when it has moved below the two EMA lines with a reversal from the EMA 34. In addition to the price channel factor, it is operating stably and has not had any fluctuations. broke down so the sellers continued to benefit.
Given the current situation, if the Bulls are ready to fight at the short-term support zone at 2375, the next target will be $2400 and even $2410, but it may not last long with the target higher profits. Because "there is evidence that once resistance is reached, it will continue its downward movement, as indicated by the unchanged EMA".
Gold continues its downtrendHello wonderful new friends to Karina. What do you think about gold's next trend?
Discuss and strategize carefully today and make the trade!
Gold (XAUUSD) opened the trading session on Monday (July 29) rising to 2402.
But! quickly retreated and reached 2387 USD, forming a short-term resistance peak at 2400 USD. At the time of writing, the price is trading at -2392 USD.
In case if the price remains below 2408 USD then the selling target will be strong and the target is 2370 USD.
If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments section below and Karina will answer them.
BANKNIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 09-Jul-2024
On 08-Jul-2024, the NiftyBank Index exhibited a consolidation pattern with a slight bullish inclination towards the closing hours. Key levels were established, including a strong resistance zone around 53,521 and a significant support zone around 52,126. The market showed signs of indecision, indicating potential volatility for the upcoming session.
Trading Plan for 09-Jul-2024:
Gap Up Opening (200+ points above 52,492):
If the market opens above 52,692, observe the price action near the opening resistance at 52,859.
A rejection from this level could signal a shorting opportunity targeting 52,492, with a stop-loss above 52,900.
If the price sustains above 52,900, look for buying opportunities targeting the resistance for a new high at 53,049, with a stop-loss below 52,800.
In case of a strong bullish momentum, trailing stop-losses can be placed as the price approaches the profit booking zone at 53,521.
Flat Opening (near 52,492):
Monitor the opening price action around 52,492.
If the price breaks below 52,470, look for shorting opportunities towards the buyers' support at 52,126, with a stop-loss above 52,520.
Conversely, if the price shows strength and moves above 52,520, consider long positions targeting the opening resistance at 52,859, with a stop-loss below 52,470.
Gap Down Opening (200+ points below 52,492):
If the market opens below 52,292, closely watch the price action around the buyers' support at 52,126.
A bounce from this level can be used for long positions targeting 52,492, with a stop-loss below 52,030.
If the price fails to hold above 52,126 and moves towards 52,030, consider shorting opportunities towards the best buy zone at 51,681, with a stop-loss above 52,200.
Summary and Conclusion:
The Nifty Bank Index is poised for potential volatility on 09-Jul-2024, given the consolidation pattern observed on 08-Jul-2024. Key levels to watch include 52,859 on the upside and 52,126 on the downside. Trading opportunities exist for both bullish and bearish scenarios, with appropriate stop-losses to manage risk. Be prepared for quick market moves and adjust your strategy accordingly based on the price action at critical levels.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as trading advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
HAPPY TRADING
USDJPY: The Buyer still holds controlThe USD/JPY exchange rate has shown an upward trend after breaking above the 159.00 level, sparking concerns that the Japanese government or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might intervene in the forex market.
With the Relative Strength Index continuing to rise, the momentum is currently in favor of buyers. Should USD/JPY surpass the psychological barrier of 160.00, the next resistance level to watch would be the year-to-date high of 160.32. Further gains are anticipated beyond 160.50, targeting the 161.00 level.
Will USDJPY cause obstacles on the road to recovery?The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its gains for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair remains within touching distance of the 160.00 level that recently pushed Japanese authorities to spend billions of dollars in Yen-buying intervention, per Reuters.
Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) rose 2.5% in May, slowing from a 2.7% increase in April. Investors now look ahead to more domestic economic reports this week including Retail Sales, Unemployment data for May and Tokyo’s inflation figures for June.
On the USD front, the revised US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) is set to be released on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
USD/JPY Technical Overview
USD/JPY trades around 159.30 on Tuesday. Analyzing the daily chart shows a bullish bias, with the pair hovering near the upper boundary of an ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 level, indicating upward momentum.
Surpassing the upper threshold of the ascending channel pattern around 159.90 will reinforce the bullish sentiment, potentially driving the USD/JPY pair toward 160.32, the highest level since April and a major resistance point.
On the downside, immediate support appears at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.60. A breach below this level could intensify downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair, potentially driving it toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 155.60. A break below this level could push the pair to test the throwback support around 152.80.
Long or Short?
If you’re in the trade, which side are you on? Are you long the dollar-yen or short it? Let us know in the comments below!
Gold price edges lower amid cautious Fed rhetoricGold prices (XAU/USD) traded in positive territory on Tuesday despite a weaker greenback. A stronger-than-expected US purchasing managers index (PMI) released last week prompted Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to push back the timing of their first interest rate cut this year. , this continues to limit gold's upward momentum. However, safe-haven flows due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine could boost the yellow metal in the near term.
Investors will take more cues from speeches by Fed members on Tuesday, with Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman expected to speak. The key US economic data to watch closely this week will be the final figures on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) on Thursday and the Price Index Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for May. on Friday. Any evidence of an easing inflation trend could boost expectations of a Fed rate cut by the end of 2024. This in turn could drag the Greenback lower and create a favorable wind for Gold priced in USD.
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The gold price trades on a softer note on the day. The precious metal has formed a descending trend channel since May 10 on the daily timeframe. However, the yellow metal keeps the bullish vibe above the key 89-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Still, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50-midline, indicating a neutral level between bullish and bearish positions.
The upper boundary of the descending trend channel at $2,350 will be the first stop for XAU/USD. A break above this level will pave the way to $2,387, a high of June 7. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the all-time high of $2,450.
On the other hand, a low of June 21 at $2,316 acts as an initial support level for the yellow metal. Any follow-through selling will see a drop to $2,285, a low of June 7. The key contention level to watch is the $2,255-$2,260 zone, portraying the 89-day EMA and the lower limit of the descending trend channel.
Should EUR/USD be bought?Dear traders!
EUR/USD edged up in a slight recovery after falling to 1.0670 last Friday. The new trading week is starting with risk appetite pushed higher, sending the US Dollar lower and strengthening the Euro as investors head into a relatively quiet Tuesday.
In the near term and according to the 4-hour chart, risks are increasingly turning to the downside. EUR/USD develops above the EMA level, nonetheless maintaining a downtrend. EMA 34 and 89 also point south above current levels. Finally, technical indicators lost their upward strength after testing the midline and slowly turned south, in line with another leg to the downside.
Support levels: 1.0710 1.0665 1.0620
Resistance: 1.0760 1.0810 1.0840
Should you buy gold while it remains stable above 2300 USD?Dear traders!
Gold price today decreased slightly, trading around 2,326 USD, emphasizing a decrease of 10 USD.
It is worth noting that gold weekdays will be less volatile until the end of this week's May US core personal consumption expenditures index report is released, if weaker data could increase The possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates in 2024 will support precious metals. On the contrary, higher-than-expected data will cause gold to fall deeper.
Hamed's strategy of buying on dips is still appreciated as long as gold remains positive above the $2,300 support level. We can still look at buy orders up to the indicated levels.
Notice these short-term areas on smaller timeframes:
- Support level: 2316 USD, 2306 USD
- Resistance level: 2335 USD, 2365 USD.
EUR/USD continues its downtrend below 1.0700Dear traders!
EUR/USD struggled to attract any meaningful buyers and was weakened by a combination of factors. Political uncertainty in Europe, coupled with Friday's dismal Eurozone PMI, appears to be weighing on the Euro. The Fed's relatively hawkish stance lifted the USD to multi-week highs and continues to act as a headwind.
Gold sellers target $2,300 again as the new week beginsDear traders!
Gold prices are falling early Monday after seeing a sell-off of more than 1% on Friday. Gold traders are now looking forward to a series of speeches from US Federal Reserve policymakers later on Monday to signal the new policy and its impact on the USD.
Despite the triangle breakout confirmed last Thursday, Gold prices were unable to extend the bullish breakout and returned to the ascending channel limit once again, resulting in a weekly close below the Midpoint. Simple Moving Average (EMA)34, currently at $2,325.
Such a move has buoyed sellers. Furthermore, the Bear Cross confirmed last week, after the 34-day EMA crossed the 89-day EMA from above on a daily closing basis, remains a cause of concern for buyers.