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GOOGLE THis is what i call SOLID DESICION !! Finally, Google breaks the bearish channel! And we are still at an excellent buying price! If you're in for the long term with Google: This is what we call a SOLID DECISION! Despite the recent bad news Google has faced, like lawsuits and other security issues, fundamentally, Google has always shown strength: 0 debt, solid sales and earnings, and, best of all, it’s an innovative company. With an intrinsic value of $180 per share, it’s definitely a long-term buy. My advice always: forget the news; the numbers speak for themselves! One of the most solid financial statements in the market at a great price. Now, let's move on to the technical analysis of Google: Finally, Google breaks the bearish channel with great strength, after respecting our inflection zone (blue zone). As you can see, the price has respected this zone significantly. I’ve been analyzing Google and its rebounds in this zone for months, and we've been forecasting each movement based on the buyer pressure volume when touching this critical area. In this case, I’ve drawn a vertical line, indicating we're getting closer to Google’s next earnings report. In my opinion, the price will pull back around the $187-$168 range before continuing its bullish trend. Remember, as Google’s earnings report approaches, we’ll likely see a significant price increase. Key point: This earnings report will be crucial for Google to move closer to $191, obviously if the report is favorable, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. First, we want it to pass the point of interest around $168. Let’s see what Google has in store for us this week... Thank you very much for supporting my analysis!
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by RocketMike111
HEY INVESTOR! Nvidia below $100 is an absolute buy! check it outLet's welcome NVDA to our weekend analysis! In this analysis, we're primarily focusing on two resistances that the price formed several months ago, which consequently created a gap later on, the price came back to test our blue area, which we'll call our "gap zone." The price has been fluctuating in a bearish sequence; however, it has not yet reached our point #4 to complete the sequence we've been observing for the past few days. If the price complete the sequence and reaches our point #4, we're looking an excellent buying opportunity below 100 dollars. The trend is still bearish, but there are two factors that may suggest a short-term trend reversal: First , the price has already touched our gap zone, and second , the dividend date is approaching, during which many accumulate shares to receive the dividend and then sell, leading to increased volatility for Nvidia in the coming days. Just remember, Nvidia's intrinsic value may be positioned below 98 dollars, but if you're looking at it for the long term, this price shouldn't concern you at all. Best wishes for success in your trading and investment! Thankyou for supporting my analysis Best Regards
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by RocketMike111
Warren Buffett's Margin of SafetyIn the world of investing, few names carry as much weight as Warren Buffett. Often hailed as the Oracle of Omaha, Buffett's wisdom has guided countless investors to financial success. At the core of his investment philosophy lies a concept he considers paramount: the Margin of Safety. Buffett once famously said that the three most important words in investing are "Margin of Safety." To delve deeper into this principle, he pointed to Chapter 20 of "The Intelligent Investor," a seminal work by Benjamin Graham, which he deemed the best chapter ever written on the subject. Chapter 20: The Concept of a Margin of Safety At its essence, the Margin of Safety revolves around the idea that every stock has a fair (intrinsic) value based on the underlying company. However, this fair value often deviates significantly from the stock's current market price. No Margin of Safety: When the stock price exceeds its fair value, there is no margin of safety. Margin of Safety: When the stock price falls below its fair value, a margin of safety exists. Benefits of the Margin of Safety Investing in any asset for less than its intrinsic value is a sound financial decision. However, in the world of investing, where determining precise fair values can be elusive, this principle holds even greater significance. One can never pinpoint an exact fair value; they can only estimate a range. The Margin of Safety serves as a shield against potential errors in estimating fair value. The Mathematical Advantage A Margin of Safety provides two critical mathematical advantages: Downside Protection: Avoiding losses is paramount in investing. It takes a 100% gain to recover from a 50% loss. Therefore, preventing losses should be a top priority. Exponential Returns: Imagine a stock with a fair value of $10 but currently trading at $8, offering a 25% upside. Now, if that same stock were available for $5, the upside potential would skyrocket to 100%. A Margin of Safety can turn a good investment into an exceptional one. Why Do Margins of Safety Exist? The concept of Mr. Market, introduced by Benjamin Graham, plays a pivotal role in understanding the existence of Margins of Safety. Mr. Market is depicted as an impulsive individual, prone to bouts of depression (selling stocks at a discount) and exuberance (selling at a premium). Stock markets exhibit such fluctuations due to the psychological biases and errors of market participants. Understanding this human element is crucial in grasping the significance of Margins of Safety. In the words of Warren Buffett himself, "If you understand chapters 8 and 20 of 'The Intelligent Investor' and chapter 12 of 'The General Theory,' you don't need to read anything else." These chapters provide a foundation for investors to navigate the complexities of the market with the wisdom of a Margin of Safety. In conclusion, the Margin of Safety isn't just a concept; it's a guiding principle that can safeguard your investments and unlock their full potential. Buffett's reverence for this idea underscores its importance in achieving success in the world of finance.
Education
by Vestinda
Crypto/Gold AnalysisCurrent economic and political general dismay impacts the valuation of different fiat currencies, specifically the USD(DXY). This is due to: Lower global trade activity (recession) = lower dollar supply = USD price increase Demand for USD increases for the safe haven currency = USD price increase Worldwide investors' stakes in equities and cryptocurrencies have been shortened. The price of Bitcoin is declining further with the US dollar substantially rallying. Nevertheless, its arguable intrinsic value may be better approximated through spread graphs, particularly - BTC/GOLD; as it omits the mentioned political and economic supply/demand effects for a more precise analysis. This may be recognised through technical analysis of past prices The main graph presents GOLD/BTC breaking out its long-term resistance; which logically makes sense. history reminds us: The upcoming recession doesn't look promising for such volatile securities with (arguably) no intrinsic value Inflation = Gold is Bullish Potential Trade Short BTC: Entry Price:16,700 TP:15,515 SL:16,920
TVC:GOLDShort
by Sanzhar_m
4
TEVA - Double Bottom?TEVA has been a repair story now for many years. With litigation in the process of being resolved, debt burdens of $2 bn. per year appear manageable with cash flow - TEVA is moving away from a debt/litigation story to an equity story. Cash Flow of $3bn + per year, Net Income of ~ 2bn.+.... warrant a blended Intrinsic Value of ~ $22 per share. TEVA's technicals show a textbook double bottom with positive divergence. Reverting to trends and fibonacci levels confirm $22 target.
NYSE:TEVALong
by The-Trend-is-the-Friend
2
Unilever (ULVR) Intrinsic Value - DCF ModelUnilever DCF Assumptions: Tax Rate = 23.5% Discount Rate = 4.9% Perpetual Growth Rate = 1.5% EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x Transaction Date = 01/04/2022 Fiscal Year-End = 31/12/2022 Current Price = 41.92 Shares Outstanding = 2,610 Debt = 29,672 Cash = 4,495 Capex = 1,340 Base Case Scenario In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of 5%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 3%. These assumptions are lower than analysts’ forecasts. DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL: Terminal Value Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = €12,873 EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x TERMINAL VALUE (m) = €160,909 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value = €162,651 Plus: Cash = €4,495 Less: Debt = €29,672 Equity Value = €137,474 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = €52.68 / £44.25 DCF (5Y) PERPETUAL GROWTH RATE MODEL Terminal Value Final Forecast FCFf (m) = €8,742 Perpetual Growth Rate = 0.5% TERMINAL VALUE (m) = €201,447 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value = €195,001 Plus: Cash = €4,495 Less: Debt = €29,672 Equity Value = €169,824 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $65.08 / £54.66 DISCLAIMER: All information is the author’s views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing, and Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information’s reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors. Any actions taken based on the information on the website are strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information on this site. DISCLOSURE: I/we have open long positions in Unilever. We have no immediate intentions of altering this position in the short term but have the right to change this if more information becomes available.
LSE:ULVR
by BULL_HEADED_BEAR
Alphabet / Google (GOOGL) - DCF Model - Intrinsic ValueThis valuation analysis is based on a base case scenario DCF model. Google DCF Model Assumptions: Tax Rate = 16.2% Discount Rate = 8.4% Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0% EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x Transaction Date = 05/02/2022 Fiscal Year End = 31/12/2022 Current Price = 2,865.86 Shares Outstanding = 662 Debt = 26,206 Cash = 20,945 Capex = 24,640 Base Case Scenario: In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of 18%, 16%, 14%, 13%, 12%. These revenue growth assumptions are slightly below the analysts' forecasts at the time of analysis. DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL: Terminal Value Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = $196,262 EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $2,453,270 Intrinsic Value: Enterprise Value (m) = $1,986,779 Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945 Less: Debt (m) = $26,206 Equity Value (m) = $1,981,518 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,992.69 DCF (5Y) GROWTH EXIT MODEL: Terminal Value Final Forecast FCFf (m) = $119,494 Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0% TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $1,902,831 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value (m) = $1,616,256 Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945 Less: Debt (m) = $26,206 Equity Value (m) = 1,610,995 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,433.09 DISCLAIMER: All information and analysis are based on the author's views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing. Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information's reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors. Any actions taken based on this information is strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information here or its website. DISCLOSURE: I/we have open long positions in GOOGL. We do not intend on altering this position in the coming weeks. NASDAQ:GOOGL
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by BULL_HEADED_BEAR
Intel DCF Model - Intrinsic ValueIntel DCF Assumptions: Tax Rate = 12.0% Discount Rate = 7.4% Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0% EV/EBITDA Multiple = 9.0x Transaction Date = 28/02/2022 Fiscal Year-End = 25/12/2022 Current Price = $47.71 Shares Outstanding (m) = 4,072 Debt (m) = $38,101 Cash (m) = $28,413 Capex (m) = $20,329 Base Case Scenario In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of -4%, 4%, 5%, 8%, 10%. These assumptions are slightly lower than analysts’ forecasts. DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL: Terminal Value Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = $44,337 EV/EBITDA Multiple = 9.0x TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $339,031 Intrinsic Value Final Forecast EBITDA (m) =$44,337 EV/EBITDA Multiple = 9.0x TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $339,031 DCF (5Y) PERPETUAL GROWTH RATE MODEL Terminal Value Enterprise Value (m) = $324,750 Plus: Cash (m) = $28,413 Less: Debt (m) = $38,101 Equity Value (m) = $315,062 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $77.37 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value (m) = $262,768 Plus: Cash (m) = $28,413 Less: Debt (m) = $38,101 Equity Value (m) = $253,080 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $62.15 DISCLAIMER: All information is the author’s views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing, and Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information’s reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors. Any actions taken based on the information on the website is strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information on this site. DISCLOSURE: I/we have open long positions in Intel. We may increase this position depending on market movements over the coming weeks.
NASDAQ:INTC
by BULL_HEADED_BEAR
1
EHTH Intrinsic Value IdeaI had previously published on EHTH while it was in a symmetrical triangle formation. There was a brief false breakout at the end of January with the price going as high as 93. This was short lived however as it fell back below the initial resistance line and then rapidly dropped all the way down to $48 following a downgraded price target from RBC Capital. Despite the negative report and subsequent steep drop in price I still believe EHTH is a fundamentally strong company that will continue its steady/solid growth. I had previously set a $115 price target on EHTH and still believe this target can be justified however lets consider the possibility that I was simply just off in my valuation. I came to this $115 target using an already conservative 30% margin of error in my calculations. If we took those same calculations and used a very conservative 50% margin of error instead of 30%, our min price target would still be $82. I believe at this current price level there is some great value here.
NASDAQ:EHTHLong
by LivermoreGrahamDisciple
1
Value investing toolkitHello Investors! This educational post is about my toolkit developed for filtering out the almost perfect applicants for further analysis and research in the light of the principals of value investing. The work is based upon Warren Buffett's principals, calculations and recomendations. After publishing my two previous posts on the "Value investing chart set" and the "Intrinsic value calculation" I have received a lots of positive comments and feedbacks. Alongside the encouraging comments I have received quite a lots of requests to share the chart layout and the other scripts I am using while compiling the chart set I have introduced. I have promised to further develope both tools and come up with an even more powerfull toolkit. Now it is here! :-) I have combined the already published Intrinsic value calculation script with the Value investing chart set and further developed both on the way! This setup now is way more powerfull and exciting and is loaded with features as described below. First of all: here is the public link to the shared chart layout setup: www.tradingview.com Which company could be more adequate for the introduction of a value investing toolkit than Berkshire Hathaway, the company of Warren Buffett? It is not just an honor to use this ticker for educational purposes but aparently -as you can see during the analysis- it makes a perfect long term investment! What a surprise, right? :-) Here I will only explain all the new features of this chart as there is a very detailed explanation of both the Intrinsic value calculation script and the Value investing chart set in those two posts. You can find the links for them below. SO! Obviously the biggest developement is poping into your eyes right away: I have programed a value investing analysis tool into the chart so whenever you enter a ticker, the toolkit will supply you with an instant assesment on the given ticker. Of course it is a very basic tool and can only supply you with a preliminary overview on the company and does not, in any way substitute detailed and troughly research before you make any investment decission! - The assessment is based on the principals Warren Buffett, Ben Graham layed down. Some of Peter Lynch's work has been used, too. - The tool is using a rather conservative approach as the main goal is to maintain the capital invested and only additional to that to produce adequate gain on the long run In general: if you see a green labell with the text 'Possible subject for firther research' than you have found a company which passed a conservative test and is worth for further study. Needless to say that if you see a red label with the text 'XX NOT RECOMENDED XX' and a bunch of reasons below, why (overvalued - overpriced - debt risk) do not rush to your broker to put your life savings on it. To give you an example, here is how Google is evaluated today: In order to get the green light a company has to meet the following, rather strict criterias: - Valuation: The current price of the stock has to be below the Intrinsic value. (In this case $224 closing price vs. $426 for the Int. value) This line will precisely tell you how far the price is from the Intrinsic value, in other words, it will tell you your margin of safety when investing to the company on today's price level. In this example it is 90% - Pricing: The close price has to be below the "Buffetts limit price" indicator. To make it short Graham and Buffet stated that the number you get when multiplying the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio with the Price to book (P/B) ratio has to be below 22.5 in order to consider the given share cheap. This line will tell you how far the price is from the Buffetts limit price. This case it is 61%. ($224 vs. $361) - Debt risk: The company has to have much less debt than equity in order to qualify for long term value investing. The limit here is 1, meaning that the company has to have more equity than total debt. If this is not the case, the company fails the test. (This can be taken a little flexible as certain industries, like banking and insuarance by definition deploy a lots of debt instruments without risking their long term profitability or sustainability) In the example of Bershire this is 0,27 meaning that Berkshire has more than 3 times more equity than debt which is needless to say a more than perfect setup. (What do we expect from Mr. B, right?) These are the first 3 deciding criterias where a company can fail the test. Any of those turn to be out of range, you will get a red labell with a big fat NO recomendation. And most of the time this is going to be the case... As for the other points you will get more inside peek into the state of the company: - Price/book: this line will tell you if the price is still below the 1.5 times book value point. This is the highest price what value investors find comfortable paying. If the P/E value is very low for the share you might run into a situation where the Buffetts limit (P/E times P/B) is still low (below 22,5) but the stock is rather overpriced. You will not get a red labell here, only a 'Caution' warning and a grey label, instead of 'GOOD!' - Earnings: you will get an opinnion on the earnings here. The main criteria to get a 'GOOD!' evaluation is to have a growing level of EPS in the last 5 years. - Revenue: It is very important to invest in a company which is able to grow it's revenues steadily. This line will analyse that and will tell you if it wouldn't be so. - Profit & loss: Although it is not a deciding factor but a value investor should avoid investing to companies that were producing losses in the past decade or so. This line examines the last 5 years in this respect. - Dividend: The one and only point where Berkshire fails the test! :-) As Warren Buffett used to say: I am not paying income tax, Berkshire doesn't pay dividend... :-) Poor guy! Since we are investing for a very long term it is imperative that we top the gains we might have over the years with the 3-4% dividend p.a. As you can see here, there is a Warning! comment should the company fail in paying dividend. - Number of shares: Here you will see a quick analysis on the share buyback habits of the company/management. Again, what we examine here is wether the number of shares outstanding is less than 5 years ago or more which means that the company is buying back it's shares thus help investors to maintain equity. So entering your choosen ticker you should have an instant overview if the company can supply you with the value investing criterias or fails in this field. One very instructive exercise is to click through the leading blue chip stocks with this valuation toolkit and see how hugely overvalued they are at the moment. Some further developements I made in the mean time: - I have automated the calculation of the book value growth with finding the very first data point regardless when it happens. In this way you do not have to enter any parameter and you can simply click conveniently from one ticker to the other without reentering the needed inputs. Hopefully it doesn't matter which pricing structure you are in at TradingView. Free acounts will use 5 years data. - I have included a 4th pane just below the main pane. This shows the revenue of the company in 3 way: the white line is the anual values, the grey line is the quarterly data and I have also added the red line showing the TTM (trailing twelve month) figure in order to visualise the very recent trends in the revenue of the company. - The same way I have added the TTM figure on the lowest pane to the EPS figure, for the same reasons. - I have added explanatory labells to the right of the charts showing the actual value of the indicators, like the Intrinsic value, Buffetts limit, and book value. - Should either the Book value or the EPS figure be negative for the current year the script will issue a red label without any data regardless the other values as the Buffetts limit can not be calculated. (Negative numbers does not have square roots and that is required to calculate the limit price back from the P/E and the P/B values) One final remark: this toolkit is as complete as my knowledge is about value investing. It is a purely educational tool, not in any way intented to be investment advice. I do use this tool and for instance I do have position in this example company Bershire Hathaway at the time of writing this post. You have to make your own research and decision when it comes to investing your money. For further explanation on the Intrinsic value calculation please check my earlier post here: For further explanation on the Value investing chart set please check my earlier post here:
Editors' picks
NYSE:BRK.BEducation
by PeterNagy
108