Bitcoin - Time to buy again!I was just waiting for the elections to be over. Now, it can be said that Bitcoin can reach $100,000 next year, and I believe in this. Technically, the price managed to break the megaphone, and this is confirmed when two or three candles close above this resistance. If this happens, you know better than I do what will happen next !!!
Give me some energy !!
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Bitcoin - Time to buy again!Currently, it can be said that Bitcoin has completed its fourth corrective wave and from now on, the price can be expected to rise to the top of the triangle.
If the triangle breaks, we expect a new ATH to occur, but in new year.
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Mirroring KDA: Why CULT DAO Could Skyrocket 100xToday I will present my thesis on how it is possible for CULT to move over x100 from its current price.
This all started by mistaking the KDA chart for a CULT chart.
What you see above is very interesting; CULT has mirrored KDA in pretty much every way.
So the thesis is the following:
If CULT is mirroring KDA and KDA is mirroring its first cycle, then that means CULT, in theory, could move x100 from where we are right now.
The first wave of KDA took nearly the same amount of time: 168 days compared to 147 days.
I believe right now we just completed the second wave. It took KDA 140 days to bottom in the last cycle. So far, it's been 140 days, and it seems to have a very high chance of being a major bottom. So again, the same amount of time, most likely.
The top of the 4.236 Fib extension would technically take CULT to $0.00026607 (143.82x), which would be around a 1.3 billion dollar market cap.
Bitcoin cycles take 1064 days to complete. If the cycle repeats, that means we either have a top in May 2025 or September 2025, depending on what you mark as a cycle low.
Which again, May 2025 fits with this fractal perfectly, and when you overlay the KDA fractal onto the CULT chart, what you see is something pretty amazing.
A rally till the end of the year with an 80% correction down to this very strong confluence point in late February/March 2025.
With the final run being from March 2025 to May 2025.
Another interesting chart I'm looking at is CULT/VIX. You can see that the February 2023 and March 2024 highs hit the same point in this chart.
Taking a look at this chart, we can also see a pattern emerge that showed us the start of the altcoin run.
(Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, %)
**Conclusion**
If this thesis proves correct, I've just handed you a 100x opportunity, published months in advance—a historical record of what might seem impossible but could soon become reality.
Just like predicting this huge crash before it happened.
Where is the S&P500 trend?Where is the S&P500 going with this recent decline?
We can observe to key parallel channels that have acted as support and resistance both in the near and short term.
The Uplsoping channel in on watch as price action is struggling to close back above. As long as we remain in the upsloping channel we have to observe the risk of falling to the lower boundary range.
If we recapture the falling channel we can always float back up to the upper range.
Chainlink Business As Usual It might seem like a shock for most that Chainlink had this big move down, but if you have spent a lot of time studying Chainlink's last cycle, you would know that this is business as usual.
The fact that Chainlink had this move has made me more bullish than ever. We are currently 64% down from March 2024. Crazy? I think not.
71%
71%
62%
44%
These are all the corrections Chainlink had during its last cycle to its all-time high.
All we are doing is a back test to this previous range. Chainlink was doing the same thing last cycle.
If we overlay the last cycle over this starting from wave 5, we can see that we have had a crash during the same time of the cycle as we did in March 2020 (Covid). Crazy.
I would not be surprised if Chainlink closed above $11 by the end of the week, just above the 1:1 Gann Fan, and started a V-shaped recovery, marking the bottom. There is a very high chance.
Once again, my time fibs hit right on the money. The blue fib marked the bottom, and the yellow marked the top!
**Next date: 18th Nov 2024**
Chainlink Business As Usual It might seem like a shock for most that Chainlink had this big move down, but if you have spent a lot of time studying Chainlink's last cycle, you would know that this is business as usual.
The fact that Chainlink had this move has made me more bullish than ever. We are currently 64% down from March 2024. Crazy? I think not.
71%
71%
62%
44%
These are all the corrections Chainlink had during its last cycle to its all-time high.
All we are doing is a back test to this previous range. Chainlink was doing the same thing last cycle.
If we overlay the last cycle over this starting from wave 5, we can see that we have had a crash during the same time of the cycle as we did in March 2020 (Covid). Crazy.
I would not be surprised if Chainlink closed above $11 by the end of the week, just above the 1:1 Gann Fan, and started a V-shaped recovery, marking the bottom. There is a very high chance.
Once again, my time fibs hit right on the money. The blue fib marked the bottom, and the yellow marked the top!
**Next date: 18th Nov 2024**
Black Swan Incoming (Part 1)This is the start of a series I will be publishing for the rest of the year. I will focus 100% on trying to do the impossible and predict a narrow timeframe of a potential black swan event.
**The series will end and this theory will be invalidated if we break and close a weekly above the previous weekly high at 75k.**
**Fear and Greed Index (alternative.me)**
As you can see, we only have data from 2018. Nevertheless, we have data on the last bull market and rallies since then. As we can see, the index will print lower highs before rallies and bull markets.
**What we have now is a break of a multi-year uptrend on the index and currently putting in a lower low, which is not a good sign at all.**
**2Week MACD BEARISH CROSS**
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times, it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
TOPPING DISTRIBUTION FRACTAL APPEARS
I have covered this fractal many times on my channel; you can probably find more than ten publications just on this fractal.
Why are we seeing a double-top distribution fractal again play out at the top of rallies? How many times are they going to use it? These three occasions, you can see they all happened with very similar timing from peak to peak and the first wave down.
Volume Block and Bayesian Trend
The Bayesian Trend is currently giving a 41% probability of a move higher from this point. As I'm writing this, Bitcoin has just hit the 0.618, which happens to be the level with a dominant sell order block. It's a classic move, guys: double-topping pattern into a 0.618 retracement rollover, nothing new.
Crash Zone Explained
Here is why I think "if" a black swan happens, this is the timeframe where it's most likely to happen. We have US elections, the first possible rate cut, and the start of my Fib time.
As you can see, this Fib sequence predicted the last black swan event, which was the Covid Crash. It is a very powerful sequence for predicting Bitcoin macro pivot points a year. Last year, unfortunately, was the first time it failed. Nevertheless, I still keep an eye out during these periods.
Fed cuts are not bullish, especially after long pauses above 5%. Last time we had rates at 2% when we started cutting, a multi-month downtrend began which led to the Covid crash.
NAS100 above.
**BTCBTC: Spent Volume Lifespan 7y-10y**
The total transfer volume of coins that were last active between 7y and 10y ago.
Always a useful tool to see what the big boys are doing and what we see is something pretty shocking.
Big volume in these wallets can be connected to major pivot points for Bitcoin in the past. So the largest volume output recorded before 2024 was 1600 BTC.
In 2024...............
It's the same chart, just included 2024. The output volume in June 2024 was 13,900 Bitcoin. I double-checked it; it's the reason now all the other pivot points look like a small blip on the chart.
Insane, 13,900 Bitcoin moved at an all-time high, and then we get a big move down. I guess this metric still works perfectly at finding tops.
**Crash Targets**
As you can see, we have two main diagonal supports to look at. Honestly, I do not trust any diagonal supports, but the yellow macro one has three cycle low hits, so it holds a lot of weight.
The second one, which is the orange dotted line, has two hits and will most likely fail. In my experience, when we have a very clear diagonal support and it comes down for its third touch, it breaks because everyone is looking at the same thing. It's that simple: the entire space is looking at it, so therefore it breaks and everyone gets rekt.
The golden pocket sits at 35-37k and at the macro yellow support. This is where I would say the bottom is most likely in.
If the black swan plays out all the way, we would most likely see the CME gap at 21k close. This would most likely be a hammer candle that would last seconds.
**Invalidation**
If Bitcoin were to break the previous swing high at 74k and close a weekly above it, this entire TA would be invalidated. Even if it closed above 0.618 at 67k, the chance of invalidation would increase dramatically.
Black Swan Incoming (Part 2)The series continues as Bitcoin fails to invalidate my thesis. This is most likely the start of the crash rather than the end. The first diagonal support comes in at 45-48k.
Check out Part 1 above first.
The Topping Fractal Strikes Again
The entire move is orchestrated time and time again. You can see from Part 1 that 7-10 year wallets shifted massive amounts of Bitcoin right when we get this same topping pattern appearing. Coincidence? I think not. This is the third time it's happened now.
You can see from the chart above we failed to break retracement levels.
Chainlink Fractal
What you are currently seeing above is REAL, it is happening. I thought about this possibly happening when I was actively trading this fractal back in 2023.
This is the Chainlink fractal from last cycle overlaid to this current cycle.
I traded this fractal back in 2023 and when I overlaid and saw that the Covid crash lined up with my Fib time, I thought, is it possible we get a crash in August 2024?
I was going over this possibility in 2023! Mind-blowing. If the fractal plays out, that means that the bottom is basically in for LINK and the bull market starts now, with a top in September 2025. Anyways, I will post a different TA on LINK.
The Million Dollar Question
Is the double bottom in or not? I have wrestled with this question for months, over a year maybe. While all other analysts and everyone else is convinced that the double bottom is in, I have never been 100% sold on it.
What do I mean? Well, since the first Bitcoin cycle, we have formed a double bottom before the bull market starts.
As you can see, we always form a double bottom. If we repeat history, that means that Bitcoin will retest the 20k area.
Everyone is convinced that this is the double bottom, but I have never been sold on this theory, especially when we have a CME GAP at 21k!
Mayer Multiple Bands
We can see that the last band is at 26k. For now, the worst case would be that price point.
USDT Dominance Chart
I was watching this closely. We were forming an ascending channel for a while. Bullish for USDT dominance means bad for the market. What is interesting is that we hit the same level in March 2022.
Very interesting.
Hash Ribbon First Failure?
Will the hash ribbon fail completely this time? Last time it fired off a buy signal, it dumped 17% before going on a massive multi-month rally. We are currently down 29% since its buy.
Fear and Greed
Conclusion
"IF" we even get a bull market, it will most likely start in 2025.
We need to get interest rates under 2.5% at least. We have never had a bull market with rates so high. First cycle: 0%, second: 0.5-2.5%, and third cycle: 0%.
XRP moonshot?Since April 2021 XRP has been banging on the 2/1 Gann failing time and time again.
In the last three years we hit the 2/1 Gann 5 times and failed to break it , this monthly candle is extremely bullish and we have reached the apex of this Gann triangle, the chances are we break to the upside.
Since March 2020 we have been printing lower highs on the monthly without fail.
Stoch RSI monthly buy.
Bar pattern fractal from 2015 repeating.
Very high chance here XRP breaks 2/1 this time round , there is a lot of momentum.
Airbnb (ABNB): Bleak Outlook or Potential Turnaround? 🏠Airbnb (ABNB): NASDAQ:ABNB
Airbnb's outlook appears quite bleak at a glance. We've experienced a break in the downtrend, and since January 2023, there has been an uptrend. However, we anticipate this might not last long as the complete cycle has not yet concluded. Since the IPO, the price initially surged to $220, then fell to $82. We now expect a rise towards a Y-Wave, or Wave II, hitting between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels, equating to a range between $167 and $190. Following this, we predict Wave III will drop well below Wave 1's low of $82, potentially reaching around $30. It's important to note this is a multi-year scenario that won't unfold overnight. Still, it's crucial to be aware of the long-term perspective.
Should the price exceed the 78.6% mark, or $190, our scenario would be invalidated, indicating that the bottom was indeed found at $82.40. Until such a development, we anticipate a declining trend for Airbnb.
Bitcoin Outlook 2024It's been a while since I posted something on TradingView, mostly because there has been nothing going on for months now. However, I believe we are coming into a major pivot point for Bitcoin.
In the past, when Bitcoin consolidates at previous all-time highs, it's a strong sign that we are entering a Bitcoin bull market. But this time, it seems, at least for now, that the tide has turned to the downside.
The main chart above shows the most important macro trendline to follow right now, with multi-year support and two major cycle lows put in on this trendline.
If we take a look at my lay lines and Fib time zones, you can see why I think the 2024 outlook is going to be more downside. A new time cycle will start sometime around December 2024, which matches with the lay lines also.
A very important Time Fib, which I have been using for years, starts this month.
As you can see, it is powerful at predicting pivot points. Unfortunately, last year it failed for the first time in predicting anything, so let's see what happens this month.
As you can see from the model, Bitcoin has failed to close above the last band. This last band shows the last phases of Bitcoin cycles.
MACD BEARISH CROSS 2W
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
It is important to note that even though we have crossed bearish on the MACD, we need to wait for it to confirm in 10 days as of this post, which would be the close of this current 2W candle.
STOCHASTIC RSI
We have officially gotten a sell signal on the monthly. Two moving averages have closed under the 80 level. In 2021, this again was a false signal; we rallied for months while moving averages kept moving down.
Mayer Multiple Band
Completely broken down from the yellow band. The next band is at 43k.
My indicators
This shot is showing Heikin Candles. As you can see, it's pretty good at calling tops , its not perfect , but considering this is a real-time signal, it is very powerful. This signal will confirm in 27 days, though.
Same shot but using Japanese candles. As you can see, we have two sell signals up here on a monthly timeframe. As soon as I saw the second one, I knew already that the outcome was most likely down.
CME GAP STILL OPEN
Let's not forget that the CME GAP at 20k is still open. That is a 60% drawdown from where we are now, which would take us down to 20k where the CME GAP is, which is in line with the 2W candle MACD bearish cross average drop.
Conclusion
There are so many sell signals right now, and these sell signals are on monthly and 2-week timeframes. We are talking about huge momentum here.
My view is we go down for the rest of the year until December 2024, when rate cuts come in and the bull market starts until September 2025. After that, blood.
Anything is possible. A black swan event would take it down to close the CME GAP most likely. Remember, anyone who was here in March 2020, we dropped 63% in about 20 days.
XAUUSD reserves increased ahead of today's CPI💵GOLD PRICE AND ECONOMIC INFORMATION
Gold rose near $2,375 per ounce on Thursday, rising for the third straight session, as investors await US CPI data due later today to seek cues on the Federal Reserve's timing and depth of interest rate cuts. The annual CPI inflation is expected to ease from 3.3% to 3.1% in June, while the core CPI is anticipated to remain unchanged at 3.4%.
🔴SELL GOLD: 2390 - 2400, SL: 2404
🟢BUY GOLD: 2340 - 2338, SL: 2334
⛔️Breakout: top border 2387 - 2390 - 2403 - below 2370 - 2365 - 2355
🔼Support: 2365 -2355 - 2350 - 2340 - 2335
🔽Resistance: 2387 - 2395 - 2400 - 2410 - 2414
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE👍
TBO TEK LTD - Pre and Post IPO Statistics
IPO Price: 920
Issue Size: 1150 Crore ( 1.68 crore shares)
Lot Size: 16
Listed: 1426 ( Premium listing - 55% gain :) )
Closing on Listing Date: Closed in Negative @ 1406 minor loss of 1.4%)
Listing Day Candle: long Range Spinning Candle
Listing Day Volume: 1.2 crore
Listing day open and low PRICE would act as a support in immediate future.
Support Range: 1426 -1275 ( 10.5%)
TBO tek is one of the leading global travel distribution platforms and simplify the business of travel for Suppliers such as Hotels, Airlines, Cruise, Car rentals, Transfers, and Rail and Retail & API Buyers such as Travel agencies, independent travel advisors; and enterprise buyers that include tour operators, travel management companies, online travel companies, super-apps and loyalty apps on its platform that enables them to transact seamlessly with each other.
TBO Tek platform connects over 159,000 Buyers with over 1 million Suppliers across 100+ countries
Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd - Pre and Post IPO Statistics
IPO Price: 315
Issue Size: 3000 Crore
Lot Size: 47
Listed: 315 ( Flat listing)
Closing on Listing Date: Closed in Positive@ 329( minor gain of 4.4%)
Listing Day Candle: Spinning Candle
Listing Day Volume: 7.1 Crore
IPO price and Listing day low PRICE would act as a support in immediate future.
Support Range: 292-315 ( 7.3%)
Chainlink What Now?Is this move a surprise not really if you been following my Chainlink ideas.
Published in February warning traders that giant rising wedge had formed and the target of that wedge is back to the top of the massive range at 8-10 dollars.
March 18th we got a bearish cross the MACD , this was another signal of things to come.
On the LINK/BTC we can see that we hit the exact bottom of June 2023 lows when Chainlink hit 5 dollars and completed its wave 5.
We also have this very important date coming up with LINK , which is April 22nd 2024 or more like the week instead a specific day. This Fib time sequence has predicted Chainlink event for years with 100% succuss rate , check it out below
We once again get to see if proves to show us something of value.
On the Main chart above you can see this time fib sequence once again showing pivot points on the weekly , showed us all time high , June 2023 low , I mean simply amazing sequence here apart from 3.618 in grey you can see failed to produce anything special.
Even though the target for the rising wedge is 9-10 dollars I would link to see LINK hold the 1/1 Gann Fann right now its sitting right on it so we don't want to see a close under that would be pretty bad to close under the 1/1 again.
EURUSD1h - On the hourly timeframe, there has been aggressive movement over the past two days without any correction, resulting in significant unabsorbed liquidity above. It would be beneficial to observe sideways movement in the Asian session with liquidity absorption below, followed by a structural shift to a long context.
Chainlink Giant Rising Wedge formed.Rising wedge target is back to top of chainlink accumulation range at 9.3.
Clear rising wedge pattern with two touch points top and bottom.
We are coming up to the Chainlink fib sequence I have been using for years it has a 100% win rate at predicting Chainlink events , major moves , bottoms or tops.
Last Fib time hit was the Big move down in May 2022 marked a major bottom for LINK. Next one is April 22nd 2024 and anything can happen for LINK around this time , its interesting also that it lines up with the Bitcoin halving.
LINK/BTC
Link has failed to break this level time and time again and until this level is broken I don't think we will see a major move for LINK.
It is possible that coming in 22nd of April we get a big move down for on LINK/BTC to test the 1/1 Gann fan again, yellow circle you see on the chart.
If thats the case then expect a major move down the fact that we are forming such a massive rising wedge with only 60 days from the next count is telling.
I also get a two different Fib time dates on 22nd April the one use see above is completely different start and end points yet the 618 falls on the same date.
Maybe LINK breaks the resistance on this date and moons or maybe it crashes and bottoms , who knows! all i know is that the next date after Aprill 2024 is May 2027 so best be ready for anything .