EURUSD 4h4h - an incredibly interesting situation has formed on the 4-hour chart. Structurally, we are in a long context, and with the overlay of all possible liquidity formed below us, we continue the upward movement. However, at the same time, there is an emerging order flow in the short direction against us. In such moments, it is crucial to wait for the price to firmly establish itself in one direction for a sensible continuation of work. Otherwise, there is a high probability of losing money.
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Top Is Likely In , I'm Out.Today, I'm going to present to you my thesis on why this rally is over and why the Bitcoin top is in for now, marking the weekly lower high that everyone will be setting as resistance in the coming months.
This rally has reminded me a lot of 2019 in many ways; it has played out the same, especially with Chainlink. I have been following a bar pattern fractal from 2019 that played out almost 1:1 for 358 days.
As you can see, LINK should have had a blowoff top by now, or has it? Something that I have learned a lot in this space is that blowoff tops are really anticlimactic. Prices go up, pull back, we all think it's just a small pullback, and then before you know it, it's a full-blown correction. When you look back, you realize, "Damn, that was the top."
The main chart you see above is one of many reasons why I think the top is highly likely. In 2019, we hit the 0.75 Fan Fib and topped out. So far, at this moment, it's finding resistance at this Fan Fib.
I have documented on my channel how the 2015 cycle macro structure is a lot like this cycle's structure, especially the cycle low. What happened in 2015 with Fib levels and Gann Fann.
Looking into it, we can see that Bitcoin topped out between the 0.5-0.618 Fib and around the 2/1 Gann Fann.
If you take a look at today's price action, you can see that we are in exactly the same spot as we were in 2015 before a big correction. A pre-halving 50% correction is always in the books.
A 55% correction to the 20k CME gap is very possible, no doubt, within the first 4 months of the year. This would be normal for a Bitcoin cycle.
The Mayer Multiple band 1.4 has predicted tops in Bitcoin for 2 years its been a very big resistance.
Finally we come to the chart I personally trust the most , the one chart and channel that has put me ahead of the curve most of the time and that is the USDT dominance chart.
You can clearly see that when the price comes to the bottom of the channel, we get a top in the market. It has predicted all the tops in the past few years. I cannot ignore this signal. Not only that, but the greed indicator fired off like the April top 2021. It's undeniable that the channel is strong and unbreakable.
Maybe this time it's different? Maybe this time it breaks down, and we go to an all-time high. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not taking the risk. I'm out.
Bitcoin 2023 nding WaysAs of now, Bitcoin is priced at $42,815, accompanied by a 24-hour trading volume of $24 billion. Its market capitalization stands at $843 billion, commanding 54% of the market share. In the past 24 hours, BTC has encountered a 0.96% decrease in price. With a circulating supply of 19.46 million BTC out of a maximum possible supply of 21 million BTC.
Bitcoin's recent attempt to breach the $44,000 resistance faced selling pressure, triggering a decline in its value. Currently, resistance is noted at $44,982, while support for BTC/USD is established at $41,784. The analysis for December 26 indicates that bears have initiated a robust selling pressure, eroding buyer confidence around the $44,000 mark. Consequently, BTC is experiencing a significant decline, setting the stage for a downward correction.
Examining the 1-day chart reveals a diminishing buying demand for Bitcoin as it grapples with this decline in value. Bio for more..................
Chainlink Distribution Fractal (Warning) Fractal of Doom It seems that we have formed a distribution topping fractal here in Chainlink , the fractal of doom is back!
Where did i get this fractal from? well its from the 2018 Bitcoin bear market.
This fractal from 2018 all of sudden formed at Bitcoin all time high in 2021.
And now its back! it seemed to have formed here on Chainlink!
Looks very similar! , that higher high to bait everyone in before it rolls over!
My view on why the top is in below.
When I first discovered it January 2022
XAUUSD 1dHello, everyone! Weekly review of the gold-dollar pair from higher timeframe to lower:
1D - Daily timeframe, we are in a short context after updating the historical maximum. After that, we confirmed the short context. At the moment, we have an interesting situation as there is a raid against a raid in still a short context. In such moments, I prefer to gather more information before making a decision.
Cryptographic Truth Final Run (Chainlink) (Re-Upload)The fractal continues to play out like the last Chainlink Cycle.
I started to see a bump and run pattern forming, so I went back to 2019 where we are now in the fractal, and we find the same pattern: a textbook bump and run pattern. There is now a very high chance that we will reverse from this point; we just completed the throwback with a double bottom candle pattern.
My position is still open from 14.6 and being added to the long position under 14.
At the moment, LINK is consolidating under the 1/1 Gann Fan, as you can see below.
According to the fractal, we don't get the real break till the 1st of December; it might look something like this.
The condition for this theory on the fractal playing out being invalidated is if Chainlink loses this lower high structure and breaks this red support trendline.
EURUSD 1DHello! Here's a weekly review of the EUR/USD pair from higher timeframes to lower:
1D - Since Wednesday, we have shifted the daily context from short to long after the price secured above the fractal maximum. The target was set to the nearest fractal maximum. On Friday, I expected the removal of the fractal local maximum, and the price, in turn, made a corrective movement. Below, we also have an uncovered imbalance. The price is still in a long context, and I anticipate seeing the removal of fractal maximums after balancing next week.
Chainlink The Moment Of Cryptographic Truth (re-upload)It is now the most important time in this whole fractal; it's been over 381 days, and Chainlink continues to mirror its past. Link is now in a Pennant pattern, which is a bullish pattern.
The question everyone is asking is, is it over? Has it stopped mirroring? The answer to that is no; it has not stopped mirroring as of this moment.
As you can see, even throughout this segment of the fractal, it's been a pretty close 1:1; even this deep pullback is very similar.
It's extremely important that Chainlink now holds this higher lower structure for the fractal to play out its final move. Sometime in the next 24 hours, the price will reverse if the fractal is to play out.
As I have documented in this large series of TAs, Chainlink is moving around 50% less than the last cycle.
Even this move up from the start of this wave was about 50% less than last cycle. So if we measure from this point in time, 100% gets $26, which is one of many reasons my new target for this final wave is much lower than I expected. But as new information comes in, we change targets.
We have a lot happening around that number.
The 2/1 Gann Fan around the timeframe I set hits $27.
We also have three Fib levels around that area:
- 4.236 Accumulation level Fib - $24.4
- 4.236 Pennant level Fib - $28.9
- 0.5 Marco Level FIB - $28.6
So why the timeframe? Why December 15th to 25th?
The first date is straightforward; it's when the fractal pattern tops out. So by December 11th, the price should be back at $16.5 if the timing of this is going to play out the same.
The second date I set is December 25th. The reason why I chose that date is that the final wave in LINK's movement normally takes 14 days from the break of the range. If the fractal continues and it does breakout on December 11th, it's possible that the top would, in fact, be in 14 days from the range break, which would be December 25th.
As long as Chainlink does not break this Pennant structure, everything is still under control. If the Chainlink closes under this support and creates a lower low, everything goes out the window pretty fast.
It's the most important moment!
Re-upload guys , TA was taken down under house rules , my bad.
Cryptographic Truth Part 3 (Chainlink)TThe fractal continues to play out with amazing accuracy in timing and degree of angle; it's pretty amazing to see it play out live. I closed my leverage long at 13 dollars; it was an amazing run, but the risk is far too high for me now. I will explain why below.
In two days now, according to the fractal, we will start a fairly deep pullback that will shake out a lot of traders. Let's take a look at the RSI levels on the 2-day chart.
As you can see, we are at extreme overbought levels on the RSI. In the entire LINK history, only five times have we come to these levels.
So what you can see here is that when we break the range and reach our first local top of this zigzag pattern, the RSI comes to this exact level. So I believe we are very close to this local top and the first pullback in this fractal.
The last two times we broke ranges, we had pretty deep pullbacks. The first time was 40%, and the second time was 27%. The next Fib target is 15 dollars, a 0.618 retracement from there would be 10.2 dollars, and a 32% pullback, which would be the deepest pullback in an uptrend LINK would do.
Something I've talked about a lot is LINK/BTC dominance, and that is the most bullish chart for me. Price is good, but the dominance chart right now has broken the 1/1 Gann; it's time for turbo mode.
It is day 343 of this pattern, mirroring its predicted every move to the up and down for a year. To ignore it now and say in 2 days it's going to decouple and carry on up, blasting till 50 dollars, is a dream. We trust in the fractal and RSI historical data!
Now is the time to bring out the secret weapon; it's been some time since we used it and published it.
USDT dominance chart has been the key for me, hitting so many home runs really. This channel I have been following for years has predicted every top and bottom for years.
It's been straightforward when we get to the top or bottom of this channel, and right now there is still room to run.
If it's December 15th and we are at the bottom of this channel, which is the same time Chainlink should top out on this macro move, the top is in!
The perfect sell signal comes in if those two things happen at once!
This is another secret weapon, it's a Chainlink chart, and we basically still have room to run for now also.
The stage is set for a pullback at around 14-15 dollars. I won't be shorting it but preparing for a new long position if that pullback comes down into the 22nd of November.
Chainlink Roadmap 2033Chainlink Roadmap for the Next Ten Years: Lately, I have come across some crazy projections for Chainlink's price. I have seen charts with projections up to $10,000 within 5 years. Hence, I thought I would create a roadmap to determine if those projections are possible solely based on Chainlink's last cycle.
This leads us to a projected $3,000 Chainlink by 2030, exactly 10 years from now. We are very early in this journey.
Cryptographic Truth Final Run (Chainlink)The final run is starting, ahead of schedule it seems!
The fractal did not play out the same during this section; it seems we are running much faster! Normally, during this part of the zigzag fractal, Chainlink takes 12-15 days to bottom, but we seem to have done so in only 6 days, half the time it normally takes. I have covered this in all the previous Chainlink parts with pictures; take a look at parts 1-3.(Links Below)
The golden pocket sits at $35, and the fractal date when it tops out is December 15th, 2023.
A mirrored move would take us to $30 mid-December. I don't believe we will mirror because history shows us this final leg is much more extreme than the first.
This TA below of a BTC/LINK Fibonacci time sequence has been correct for years at predicting Chainlink events the next date is April 24th 2024.
Whats going to happen who knows but what we do know is when these dates arrive things happen with Chainlink .
Already re-entered my long here, got in at $14.6 after the descending wedge broke. This rally is only going to last until December. After that, there will be blood, one more flush out for sure. Below, I presented why, in a Bitcoin TA, sometime from March-April 2024, there will be something big happening that takes Bitcoin down to $20k, and if that happens, LINK will also be coming down.