Investing
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 successfully achieved our predefined target of Outer Index Rally, 6123, corresponding to the Key Resistance established at 6090. The market is currently exhibiting a phase of consolidation, as the bullish trend appears to be transiently suspended following the conclusion of the outer index rally. It is, however, essential to acknowledge that the absence of a significant corrective pullback may facilitate the re-initiation of a bullish trajectory toward additional rally targets. Such a development would position the market advantageously for the forthcoming phase of the bullish trend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar saw a significant increase during this week's trading session after successfully breaking through our resistance levels at 1.031 and 1.039 and is now resting at the previous weekly chart analysis charts identified as a resistance level of 1.051. We expect a rally towards the next key target, the Interim Inner Currency Rally, set at 1.060. However, this upward movement could lead to a temporary retracement towards the support level at 1.041 and may challenge the next significant support level at 1.024.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has successfully achieved and completed a significant Inner Coin Rally at the 108000 level. This development indicates a probable pullback to the Mean Support level of 101300, with the potential for further extension to the Mean Support level of 98000 before a resurgence in the bull market may occur. Conversely, should this pullback not transpire, the currency may experience upward movement, retesting the completed Inner Coin Rally at 108000 and challenging the next Outer Coin Rally at 110000 and beyond.
Consumer Discretionary vs. Technology: Who Leads in 2025?Introduction:
This week, we’re analyzing two major growth-oriented sectors—consumer discretionary (XLY) and technology (XLK)—to uncover which might lead the market in 2025. The ratio between these sectors offers key insights into their relative strength and momentum, helping investors identify where to find potential outperformance.
Sector Dynamics:
Technology: As the largest and most influential sector in the stock market, tech often drives broader market trends.
Consumer Discretionary: With consumer spending accounting for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, the health of this sector is crucial for sustained economic growth.
While both sectors thriving is ideal for market strength, discerning the one with stronger momentum is key for alpha seekers.
Analysis:
Recent Performance: Since June, consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed technology, showing short-term strength.
Long-Term Trend: Despite recent outperformance, the longer-term trend in this ratio has been downward, favoring technology.
Key Pattern: The ratio is approaching the resistance of a broadening wedge formation. A breakout above this resistance could indicate unexpected strength in consumer discretionary stocks, suggesting that the consumer may play a larger role in driving growth in 2025.
What to Watch:
Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above the broadening wedge would signal relative strength in XLY, potentially shifting the leadership narrative.
Bearish Scenario: A rejection at resistance and a continuation of the downward trend would reinforce technology’s dominance.
Technology Bullish Play:
Entry: Wait for the ratio to roll over and confirm rejection at resistance.
Target: Position for XLK to regain its leadership role.
Stop Loss: Manage risk with stops above the wedge resistance.
Conclusion:
Both XLY and XLK play vital roles in market performance, but identifying which sector could dominate in 2025 is critical for investors. A breakout in the XLY-to-XLK ratio would signal an important shift in sector leadership, while a continuation of the downtrend reaffirms technology's dominance. Which sector do you think will lead the charge? Share your thoughts below!
Charts:
(Include a chart displaying the XLY-to-XLK ratio, the broadening wedge formation, and key levels of support and resistance. Highlight the short-term outperformance of XLY and the long-term downward trend favoring XLK.)
Tags: #ConsumerDiscretionary #Technology #XLY #XLK #GrowthStocks #SectorLeadership #TechnicalAnalysis
Netflix (NFLX): Explosive growth, but caution aheadNetflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) is set to open 14% higher after adding a record-breaking 18.9 million subscribers in Q4—nearly double Wall Street’s expectations and well above the early 2020 peak of 15.8 million. These incredible numbers have sparked a strong market reaction, and the enthusiasm is well-justified.
Following this update, we’ve re-evaluated the chart. While we anticipate the potential for more upside, it’s unlikely that NASDAQ:NFLX will continue climbing without a significant correction at some point. The trendline since May 2022 has proven its importance, serving as resistance nine times before being flipped into support and holding firm on a key retest.
Currently, Netflix is approaching the significant psychological level of $1,000. If this level is reclaimed, a further push toward $1,070 and even $1,300 could materialize. However, we’re exercising caution as major levels and target zones have already been achieved. There is a chance—albeit slim—that today’s earnings gap could mark the top of wave ((v)) and wave 3.
For now, we’re waiting for further developments and will decide our next steps as the stock’s trajectory becomes clearer. Stay tuned for updates.
Adobe (ADBE): Patience Pays Off After 35% RallyFollowing our last analysis of Adobe (ADBE), the stock saw a 35% rally from June to September, only to flush back to our preferred range—a clear reminder of the importance of considering the bigger picture rather than chasing every setup. Six months later, Adobe now trades below our initial analysis levels, reinforcing the value of patience. Currently, the stock has tagged the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, showing a promising reaction. However, reclaiming and flipping the key resistance at $446 with strong momentum is crucial. If this level is reclaimed, we will look for a pullback to bid at this key zone.
Should Adobe fail to reclaim $446, another drop toward the $386–$350 support range becomes highly likely. As such, we are not rushing into long positions for the sake of being positioned.
On the fundamental side, Adobe faces critical challenges as investors question its ability to monetize new AI features and fend off competition from emerging startups. These factors will play a key role in shaping the company’s outlook. For now, we remain patient, watching for clear rejections or reclaiming of the key levels.
Key Resistance: $446
Key Support: $386–$350