S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 1, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Spooz index in this week's trading session retested our completed Inner Index Rally 4590 of July 27, 2023, and is moving higher, targeting the Key Res 4630 and Inner Index Rally 4647, respectively.
Once the market successfully achieves this target price, the follow-up squeeze will likely be significant and turbulent. Traders and investors should, therefore, be prudent and vigilant during this price action phase.
Investing
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 1, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
After completing our designated Inner Currency Rally 1.099 target this week's session, the Eurodollar performed as flagged in our EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis for Nov 24 by dropping it to a primary pivotal squeeze to Mean Sup 1.087. The current price action suggests a dead-cat bounce to Mean Res 1.092 with a potential rise to retest the completed Inner Currency Rally 1.099 with a follow-through squeeze.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 1, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
With prices trading in a relatively narrow range, Bitcoin penetrated our exhausted completed Inner Coin Rally 37800 and is heading towards the Next #1 Outer Coin Rally 39200 and beyond. On the downside, the intermediate down target is Mean Sup 37300. The subsequent squeezes will likely be significant and turbulent once the market successfully achieves these Outer Coin targets.
"BULL MARKETS ARE BORN ON PESSIMISM"Did you come across several media reports, individuals and others betting on the crash of US economy and how everything will collapse.
Here is a quote by Sir John Templeton - "bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria".
So one can understand with the growing amount of pessimism all around as to which phase of the bull market we are in - yes, just the beginning.
The S&P Real Estate weekly chart shows the impulse move up (through march 2020 to dec 2021) and a subsequent 70% retracement(through dec 2021-oct 2023) of the same.
The index has now just completed a complex triple three correction (WXYXZ) and is all set to move up from here.
The index could double from the current levels in the coming 2-3 years time.
Note*- this is not an investment advice, please do your own research before making any investment decisions.
$DHI Supercycle Nearing CompletionThe stock is expected to complete its final move to Wave 5 of (V) before undergoing a significant correction, constituting a substantial correction in my view.
My extended target for the upward trend is $143, with plans to consider short positions thereafter. The recent upward movement appears to be forming a rising wedge, adding to the overall wedgy appearance.
The RSI shows a substantial bearish divergence since the completion of Wave III, signaling that Wave V is still underway. While the situation evolves, my current stance is to maintain a long position.
USOIL HOW TO TRADE VOLUME AND CANDLESTICKOn the first marked candlestick you can see how the volume was high and the price closed (red) immediately followed by a return big candle with strong volume (the bulls defended). Then they try again and fail.
Here's the reason why i hunted low wick today after the news. I expect this time we break the 200 DMA and test $83
How To Use RISK vs. REWARD RatiosHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
For today's post, we're diving into the concept " risk reward ratio " by taking a look at practical examples and including other relevant scenarios of managing your risk. What is considered a good risk to reward ratio and where can you see it ? This applies to all markets, and during these volatile times it is an excellent idea to take a good look at your strategy and refine your risk management. Let's jump right in !
You've all noticed the really helpful " long setup " or " short setup " on TradingView chart ideas. This clearly identifies the area of profit (in green), the area for a stop-loss (in red) and your entry (the borderline). It also shows the percentage of your increases or decreases at the top and bottom. This is achieved by using the tool you can find in your toolbar on the left, 7th from the top. The first two options are Long Position and Short Position. It looks like this :
💭Something to remember; It is entirely up to you where you decided to take profit and where you decide to put your stop loss. The IDEAL anticipated targets are given, but the price may not necessarily reach these points. You have that entire zone to choose from and you can even have two or three take profits points in a position.
Now, what is the Risk Reward Ratio expressed in the center as a number.number ?
The risk to reward ration is exactly as the word says : The amount you risk for the amount you could potentially gain. NOTE that your risk is indefinite, but your gains are not guaranteed . The risk/reward ratio measures the difference between the entry point to a stop-loss and a sell or take-profit point. Comparing these two provides the ratio of profit to loss, or reward to risk.
For example, if you're a gambler and you've played roulette, you know that the only way to win 10 chips is to risk 5 chips. Your risk here is expressed as 5:10 or 5.10 .You can spread these 5 chips out any way you like, but the goal of the risk is for a reward that is bigger than your initial investment. However, you could also lose your 5 and this will mean that you need to risk double as much in your next play to make up for your loss. Trading is no different, (except there is method to the madness other than sheer luck...)
Most market strategists and speculators agree that the ideal risk/reward ratio for their investments should not be less than 1:3, or three units of expected return for every one unit of additional risk.
Take a look at this example: Here, you're risking the same amount that you could potentially gain. The Risk Reward ratio is 1, assuming you follow the exact prices for entry, TP and SL.
Can you see why this is not an ideal setup? If your risk/reward ratio is 1, it means you might as well not participate in the trade since your reward is the same as your risk. This is not an ideal trade setup. An ideal trade setup is a scenario where you can AT LEAST win 3x as much as what you are risking. For example:
Note that here, my ratio is now the ideal 2.59 (rounded off to 2.6 and then simplified it becomes 1:3). If you're wondering how I got to 1:3, I just divided 2.6 by 2, giving me 1 and 3.
Another way to express this visually:
If you are setting up your own trade, you can decide at what point you feel comfortable to set your stop loss. For example, you may feel that if the price drops by more than 10%, that's where you'll exit and try another trade. Or, you could decide that you'll take the odds and set your stop loss so that it only triggers if the price drops by 15%. The latter will naturally mean you are trading at higher risk because your risk of losing is much more. Seasoned analysts agree that you shouldn't have a value smaller than 5% for your stop loss, because this type of price action occurs often during a day. For crypto, I would say 10% because we all know that crypto markets are much more volatile than stock markets and even more so than commodity markets like Gold and Silver, which are the most stable.
Remember that your Risk/Reward ratio forms an important part of your trading strategy, which is only one of the steps in your risk management program. There are many more things to consider when thinking about risk management, but we'll dive into those in another post.
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USDCAD - Small Pullback before another dropThe USD/CAD pair is making a comeback after recent losses in the last session. As of Monday's Asian session, it's trading higher around 1.3660. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is feeling the pressure due to a drop in crude oil prices. The price of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) has been on a decline since Wednesday, hovering around $75.00 per barrel at the moment.
The dip in crude oil prices is linked to anticipation surrounding the upcoming meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+). Investors are hoping for an agreement on supply cuts extending into 2024. This decline in oil prices follows OPEC+'s decision to postpone a ministerial meeting to November 30.
On a positive note, the Loonie Dollar (CAD) gained momentum on Friday. This was fueled by a Retail Sales report for September that exceeded expectations. Retail Sales (MoM) showed a 0.6% improvement, beating the anticipated 0.0% and the previous -0.1% decline. Retail Sales excluding Autos remained consistent with a 0.2% increase, compared to the previous -0.2% contraction.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around 103.40, facing challenges in stopping losses despite improved US Treasury yields. The current 10-year and 2-year bond yields in the US are at 4.50% and 4.97%, respectively. This increase in yields is driven by market speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider easing monetary policy in 2024.
Investors are keeping an eye on Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment data, as well as key indicators from the United States, including Q3 GDP Annualized and Core PCE - Price Index.
from our point of view this “recovery” of USDCAD is only temporary and can be interpreted as a pullback for more downside to come (please chart for details).
My Secret Bitcoin Map for 2024-2025: An Idea You Can't Miss 🚀📈Hey folks. Today, I'll unveil my secret trading roadmap for 2024-2025 🗓. This roadmap will be your trustworthy guide, helping you multiply your initial investments throughout this crypto cycle 🚀.
Many traders and investors understand that financial markets are cyclical, and the cryptocurrency market is no exception. This cyclicality implies that price patterns tend to repeat, allowing us to anticipate future price behaviors.
I know many analysts analyze and compare cryptocurrency cycles, but I haven't encountered such a comparison before 🧐. Before delving into the chart and predicting the future of Bitcoin and Altcoins, I want to note that I've been refining and testing this plan for the past 6 months ⏳. So far, the accuracy results are truly impressive ✨. More on that later.
Global Bitcoin Forecast for 2024-2025 🌐
Now, let's move on to analyzing the chart 📊 and predicting the future price of the cryptocurrency market. In the chart below, I've compared the current Bitcoin cycle, the 2015-2017 cycle, and the 2019-2021 cycle. Did you notice the similarities between each cycle? Yes, the price diverges at times, but there's over a 70% correlation, which is quite significant 👀.
It's worth noting that the bearish phase (downtrend phase) has ended. The accumulation phase is also nearing its conclusion. And soon, with high probability, the entire year of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 will see the cryptocurrency market in a bullish trend (growth phase).
Pay attention to the current situation. During this period, in relation to the cryptocurrency market cycles, Bitcoin has always been in the accumulation phase (sideways trend).
📅 September - November 2023
In both previous accumulation cycles, it lasted about 200 days, after which there was a breakout upward and growth 🚀. Currently, the price has been in a sideways trend for approximately 170 days. If we go by the past, there's 1 month left before growth begins 📈. By the way, this scenario aligns very well with the months. September has always been a consolidation period 🛑, and October a month of growth 🌱.
Currently, many people are expecting the price to fall, and it's no surprise, as this always happens after downturns. The market sentiment changes with the price movement. A week ago, I conducted a poll on my Twitter account and asked my audience: "In your opinion, which will Bitcoin reach first, $20k or $30k?" 61% of respondents believe the market will hit $20k first.
Usually, as a rule, the market moves against the majority's opinion. Indeed, at the $19k - $20k level, there's a lot of liquidity 💧, strong levels, and if the price drops to $19k, it would be a great opportunity 🌟 to start investing in the cryptocurrency market. However, it's more likely the price won't drop below $22k - FWB:23K 📉.
I'll give a 20% chance 🎲 that Bitcoin will indeed decline. If it does, prices below FWB:23K - $22k are very attractive for buying 💰 (in case of a drop, buy incrementally; this allows for a good average purchase price).
The question arises: " If there's growth, where to? " 🤔 It all depends on how the price behaves throughout September 2023. If, during September, the price approaches the $30k mark and begins to consolidate, there's a good chance to reach $40k - FWB:42K 🎯. If the price stays around the same levels throughout September, then the targets might be around $35k 🎯.
Additionally, I want to highlight a few patterns. In past cycles, the growth occurred in two waves and lasted about 1.5 months. I anticipate these patterns will repeat, and the cryptocurrency market will be in a growth phase until mid-November. Exact price prediction is impossible, so I set various targets. Everything is relative and will be adjusted in real-time.
📅 November - December 2023
If we look at past cycles, from the beginning of October until mid-November, we should expect growth 📈, followed by a reversal and a sharp decline 📉, likely in December 2023. Again, it's almost impossible to predict the exact fall targets; it could be $19k - $20k, FWB:25K , or the upper accumulation boundary, $30k. Everything will depend on the price growth in October - November 2023. In the 2015 - 2017 cycle, the drop was 40% 🔻, while in the 2019 - 2021 cycle, the price declined by 60% 🔻.
Bitcoin's drop in December 2023 will be a holiday gift 🎁; keep an eye on the price 👀 and don't miss the opportunity to buy cryptocurrency at a discount before the start of the bull trend 🚀.
📅 January - May 2024
From the beginning of 2024 until mid-spring, the cryptocurrency market will likely be in a slow upward trend 📈, just as it was in past cycles. In March - April 2024, the Bitcoin halving will take place 🌗, which will certainly awaken the market and lead to increased volatility (sharp price jumps ⚡).
Past cycles also suggest that during this period, we should anticipate a local price increase 🚀. Potential uplift levels: FWB:48K - $50k 💰. Also, note that in both the first and second scenarios, the price returned to the initial growth values.
📅 June - September 2024
According to our map, during this market period, we can forecast growth 📈 and an assault on Bitcoin's all-time highs: $69,000 💎. During this time, it's also worth anticipating a surge in news-related momentum 📰. Lately, most global investment funds have been applying for a Bitcoin ETF. Perhaps during this period, we should expect positive news related to this event 🎉.
📅 September 2024 - January 2025
After Bitcoin updates its ATH (all-time highs) 🌟, the price will start to skyrocket 🚀. During this period, you can begin to purchase altcoins, as a significant amount of liquidity will shift from Bitcoin to altcoins, marking the start of the much-anticipated altcoin season 🎉.
By the end of 2024, Bitcoin might reach the $100,000 mark 💰 (a key psychological level). This, in turn, will lead to uncontrollable market mania 😲. You will notice the media 📺 extensively discussing Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. A vast influx of newcomers 🏃, who have little to no experience in trading or investing, will rush into the market and invest their savings 💼. Big players ("whales") 🐋 during this time will be massively selling their cryptocurrency to retail investors. Be cautious ⚠️, the end is near.
📅 February - May 2025
The final months of the bull market 🐂. At this stage, you've noticed that the cycles have started to differ. However, the dynamics remain similar. A correction followed by the last growth wave 🌊. Systems, models, and indicators point to different targets for this cryptocurrency cycle. I lean towards the new all-time highs (ATH) for Bitcoin being in the range of $130k - $170k 💎.
Important
All the information provided above is presented strictly for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments or currencies.
I want to note that this map serves as a reference for me, but it is by no means my strategy or system. It helps me regulate my risk level. My primary system and strategy, which I rely upon and am willing to invest my own money in, is a complex of my own Buy/Sell indicators, guided by their signals. 👇
Research independently and manage risk accordingly. In the world of cryptocurrencies, nothing is impossible.
❗See related ideas below❗
Follow + Like this post and leave a nice comment, it will allow me to move faster and make more useful content! 💚💚💚
BITCOIN Important zones for EXIT or Short (set up)As the price reacted three times to 37400, so I expect it now at these levels. I am interested in three prices and am waiting for a response.
38198, 39159, 39783.
On the momentum as well as on the RSI there is still space for a final push to get a triple divergence.
Stochastic RSI on weekly is slowly descending which is the same warning.
A Strong Reversal Breakout StockDATAPATTNS looks like it's about to turn around:
1. Moving Average Move:
- The stock is breaking through the 50-day average, suggesting a shift in its recent trend.
2. Big Volume Boost:
- Lots of people are trading it, showing a lot of interest and confidence in a possible change in direction.
3. Bouncing Back:
The stock is bouncing off a price level where it has stayed strong before.
3. Risk and Reward:
Candlestick Clue:
Keep an eye out for a special candle shape indicating a big market sentiment change. If the lowest point of that candle holds, it's a good sign.
For those starting out in stocks, DATAPATTNS seems like an interesting possibility.
Anything you need to ask? Here is me : 8800611235.
#stocks #trading #investing
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's abbreviated trading session, the S&P 500 index has again shown a constant upward trend. Current price action exhibits a solid indication to hit our completed Inner Index Rally 4590 on July 27, 2023, and move higher to Inner Index Rally #1 4647 and #2 4713, respectively. However, it's important to note that the market may experience transient pullbacks at this level, causing severe drawdown.
Once the market successfully achieves these targets, the subsequent squeezes will likely be significant and turbulent. Traders and investors should, therefore, be cautious and watchful during this phase, as it could considerably impact their trading and investment approach.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
After a pullback, the Eurodollar aims for our designated target, Inner Currency Rally 1.099. This comes after the currency repeatedly hit strong Key Res 1.092 in this week's price action. This suggests that the Eurodollar may experience an imminent rally to Inner Currency Rally 1.099 in this upcoming session, potentially bringing it to a primary pivotal squeeze with an extension all the way to Mean Sup 1.087.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Like last week, Bitcoin's price has remained within the 37800 Inner Coin Rally range and the robust 35600 Mean Support level. This indicates that the market has been relatively stable, with neither bulls nor bears having a strong grip on it.
On the upside, there is potential for intermediate upward momentum in Bitcoin's price, which could lead to a breakout above the current Inner Coin Rally of 37800. If this occurs, the next price target would be at the Outer Coin Rally #1 of 39200, followed by #2 of 41200 and #3 of 43700. This suggests that there is significant room for expansion in the near future, which could attract more investors/traders to the market.
On the downside, the Mean Support level of 35600 is expected to support Bitcoin's price strongly. If the price were to drop, it would likely find support at this level. Overall, the market is consolidating, with prices trading within a relatively narrow two-thousand-dollar range.
USDJPY - Bullish Pullback ExpectedThe USD/JPY has been on a bit of a slide since last Thursday, hitting an eight-week low of around 147.40 during Tuesday's European session. Right now, it's eyeing the 147.00 mark as immediate support, right after a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 146.32.
The US Dollar (USD) is taking a dip, reaching a nearly three-month low due to some less optimistic outlook from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is a big reason why the USD/JPY pair is going down. If this trend continues, it might lead to more bearish movements, possibly heading towards the psychological support around 146.00. If it breaks that level, we could see the pair going down to around 144.60.
But, on a positive note, there might be a bit of an upswing first. The major barrier is at 147.50, and if it breaks through that, we might see some support at 148.00. If things go well, the USD/JPY could explore levels around 149.00 or even 150.00.
Considering recent liquidity key levels created, we might see a bounce back to those price levels highlighted on the chart, possibly around the 62/70 fibs zone before it continues its downward movement. Since we're near the end of the year, prices might hang around in that zone for a bit before heading further down. What do you think? Please feel free to comment below!
Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys for investmentGood fundamentals
Company has reduced debt.
Stock is trading at 0.71 times its book value
Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 4.17%.
Company is expected to give good quarter
Good to accumlate around 200 to 250,
SL 170 CLB.
Saptarish Trading
Views are for education only, not a SEBI registered advisor.
Godawari Power Future Multibagger.Godawari Power :
Fundamentals :
Company has reduced debt.
Company is expected to give good quarter
Company has delivered good profit growth of 82.92% CAGR over last 5 years
Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 39.10%
Technicals:
Created base around 230-250, getting bounce from these levels, can accumlate some at CMP and more if it comes near 230-250.
Can add more above ATH.
Also bounced from 100 Period MA
Investors can hold without SL, if one must, SL is 170 Closing basis.
Saptarish Trading.
10 POWERFUL INVESTING & TRADING QUOTES OF ALL TIME
Here are powerful quotes of professional traders, investors and experts in financial markets.
Let their words inspire you and help you in your trading journey.
"To succeed in the market, you must learn to think like everyone else and do the opposite." - Sir John Templeton 📈💭💡
"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton ⏳📉🛑
"The more you learn, the more you earn." - Warren Buffett 📚💰📈
"The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money." - Victor Sperandeo. 💪💰🚫🧠
"Investing is not about making predictions, it's about having a plan and sticking to it." - Tony Robbins 📊🔄📌
"The best time to buy a stock is when the blood is running in the streets." - Baron Rothschild 💀🔪💰
"The best investment you can make is in yourself." - Warren Buffett 💼💡💰
"The stock market is not a casino; it's a crooked casino." - Charlie Munger 🎰🎲🏛️
"Losses are part of the game. You can't win every trade." - Martin Schwartz . 📉😔💔
"The fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future." - Peter Bernstein . ⚖️❓🔮
The More I trade, the more I realize how precise and meaningful are these phrases. Take them seriously, and they will help you achieve the financial success.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
EURUSD Bearish move in the worksHey there! Let's take a look at what's happening in the market:
Good news for the Euro! It's making a comeback, breaking the important 1.0700 mark against the US Dollar. People are thinking that both US and German yields might decrease, and there's a vibe that the Fed won't be raising interest rates in December.
On the European Central Bank front, it seems like they're in a bit of a standstill with their tightening cycle. And keep an eye out for the US Inflation Rate – it's expected to be a big deal later in the session.
Now, onto the specifics: the Euro is gaining ground against the US Dollar, reaching a six-session high around 1.0730. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is taking a bit of a dip, hanging out in the mid-105.00s according to the USD Index (DXY).
Why is the Dollar doing this? Well, US yields are weakening, and there's this ongoing difference between what the Federal Reserve is saying and what investors believe – some think there might be a break in the Fed's normalisation program.
Over at the European Central Bank, they're talking about taking a break from their restrictive stance due to inflation running high. Also, good news from Germany and the Eurozone – Economic Sentiment is up! On the flip side, there's a slight contraction in the GDP Growth Rate for the Eurozone in Q3.
Hope this gives you a good take on the market movers!
High Returns, Low Risk: Unveiling a Winning Investment StrategyI am pleased to introduce a robust long-term strategy that seamlessly combines performance with an enticing risk profile.
This strategy involves strategically investing in ETFs indexed on the S&P 500 and ETFs backed by physical gold. Let's delve into the rationale behind selecting these two assets:
S&P 500:
1. Automatic Diversification: Instant exposure to a diverse array of companies, mitigating the risk associated with the individual performance of a single stock.
2. Low Costs: ETF management fees are typically low, facilitating cost-effective diversification.
3. Liquidity: Traded on the stock exchange, S&P 500 ETFs offer high liquidity, enabling seamless buying or selling of shares.
4. Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has demonstrated consistent long-term growth, making it an appealing indicator for investors seeking sustained growth.
5. Ease of Access: Accessible to all investors, even those with modest investment amounts, requiring only a brokerage account.
6. Simple Tracking: The S&P 500 index simplifies market tracking, eliminating the need to monitor numerous stocks individually.
7. Dividends: Companies included often pay dividends, providing an additional income stream.
8. Long-Term Strategy: Ideal for investors pursuing a long-term approach, S&P 500 ETFs are pivotal for gradual wealth building.
9. Geographical Diversification: Investing in an S&P 500 ETF offers not just sectoral but also geographical diversification. Despite the U.S. base, many included companies have a global presence, contributing to international portfolio diversification.
Moreover, Warren Buffett's 2008 bet, where he wagered $1 million on the passive S&P 500 index fund outperforming active fund managers over a decade, underscores the difficulty even seasoned financial experts face in surpassing the market's long-term return. This further strengthens the notion that choosing an S&P 500-linked ETF can be a prudent and effective investment strategy.
Investment in Physical Gold ETFs:
1. Exposure to Physical Gold: Designed to reflect the price of physically held gold, providing direct exposure without the need for physical acquisition, storage, or insurance.
2. Liquidity: Traded on the stock exchange, physical gold ETFs offer high liquidity, allowing investors to buy or sell shares at prevailing market prices.
3. Diversification: Gold's unique reaction to market dynamics makes it a valuable diversification asset, potentially reducing overall portfolio risk.
4. Lower Costs: Compared to physically buying gold, investing in physical gold ETFs proves more cost-effective in terms of transaction costs, storage, and insurance. ETF management fees are also relatively low.
5. Transparency: Managers regularly publish reports detailing the gold quantity held, ensuring transparency about underlying assets.
6. Accessibility: Physical gold ETFs offer easy market access without the need for physical possession, appealing to investors avoiding gold storage and security management.
7. Gold-backed ETFs: These ETFs physically hold gold as the underlying asset, with investors often having the option to convert their shares into physical gold.
After extensive research and backtesting across diverse ETFs covering various asset classes, including bonds, real estate, commodities, and stocks of financially stable companies, my findings notably highlight a standout option during times of crisis: physical gold ETFs.
The strategy hinges on leading indicators, powerful economic tools.
Leading Indicators:
Leading indicators, or forward indicators, are crucial tools in economics and finance for anticipating future trends. In contrast to lagging indicators, which confirm existing trends, leading indicators provide early signals, aiding informed decision-making based on anticipated economic developments.
Key characteristics include:
Trend Anticipation: Early insight into upcoming changes in economic activity, facilitating preparedness for market developments.
Responsiveness: Quick reactions to economic changes, sometimes preceding other indicators.
Correlation with the Economy: Association with specific aspects of the economy, such as industrial production, consumer spending, or investments.
Examples include:
• Housing Starts: Providing early indications of the real estate market and construction investments.
• Net New Orders for Durable Goods: Indicating business investment intentions and insights into the manufacturing sector's health.
• US Stock Prices: Considered a leading indicator reflecting investor expectations.
• Consumer Confidence: Measuring consumer perceptions and influencing consumer spending.
• Purchasing Managers' Confidence and Factory Directors: Offering insights into production plans and future economic trends.
• Interest Rate Spread: Indicating economic expectations and influencing borrowing and investment decisions.
Returning to the strategy, I leverage entry points calculated by a meticulously developed strategy incorporating leading indicators applied to the SPY chart. The achieved performance of 3496% since 1993, with 15 closed trades, significantly surpasses a buy-and-hold position yielding 1654% in performance. Notably, the maximum drawdown is 5.44%, a stark contrast to the over 50% drawdown seen in an investment in the S&P 500.
Upon the indicators signaling the end of the long position, I close my SPY positions and transition to positions in physical gold ETFs.
In our example, choosing the GLD ETF yields a performance of 173%, adding to our total performance.
While the maximum drawdown, considering the addition of the investment in physical gold ETFs, is 17.65%, slightly higher than the drawdown on the strategy applied to the SPY, it remains impressive for such a prolonged period.
Now, if we conduct the backtest since 2007:
SPY : performance of 751 %, max drawdown of 4.02 %
GLD : Performance of 153 %
Since 2015:
SPY : performance of 131 %
GLD : Performance of 37 %
Disclaimer:
The information shared is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author is not liable for any financial losses incurred.
CRUDE OIL ALL PERSPECTIVE OF CHART Currently, all the movements I look at and position myself differently. It is important to show yourself all the possibilities and get rid of your emotions
if I see that the ABC correction is (LONG), it can easily lead to scam wick, which is also not excluded(SETUP-LONG) + Head and Shoulders Pattern(SETUP-LONG). Also, this could be an even bigger drop(Biggest leg down), which is my last option due to the economic situation
Acceptance below 200 and 50 Weekly Moving Average(SETUP-SHORT)
S&P 500 INDEX MACRO ANALYSIS, IMPORTANT ZONE I'm still sticking to my 4200-4220 zone for something more serious. You can always run into a scalp like I tried yesterday, but none of that is a serious zone.
Every time I repeat, I enter where there are more confirmations for a higher probability
You can see 100 WMA, 50WMA, 200DMA + Fibonacci 0.382.
If this zone is broken, I don't believe I will be bullish anymore.