The Squid Game Shows Why Most People Fail to Profit from Trading"Squid Game, the sensational Netflix series that has taken the world by storm, offers a gripping mirror to human psychology, reflecting the intricate dance of emotions and decisions that we often encounter in the world of finance. Just as unsuspecting individuals are lured into the deadly games by the enigmatic subway stranger, many novice investors are drawn into the stock market by tales of friends striking it rich, often diving in headfirst without a hint of the rules of the game.
It's a rollercoaster ride from beginner's luck to the perilous cliffs of attribution bias. Beginner's luck, that elusive phenomenon where newcomers seem to outshine the experts, can be an enticing trap. It leads to overconfidence, a misplaced faith in gut feelings, and an overzealous desire to trade that often ends up costing a small fortune in fees. These overconfident traders become engrossed in their own world, neglecting the wisdom of statistics and putting all their eggs in a single, precarious basket.
Attribution bias, another insidious cognitive bias, rears its head as traders concoct explanations for their successes and failures. Profit? They're geniuses with uncanny foresight. Loss? Blame it on market conditions or mere bad luck. The mind constantly seeks excuses for every twist and turn.
Even great minds like Isaac Newton, who could unravel the mysteries of the cosmos, fell victim to the madness of financial markets, a glaring example of attribution bias in action.
In Squid Game, the players, after witnessing horrifying tragedies during 'Red Light Green Light,' are given a choice to continue playing or not. Overconfidence and attribution bias grip the survivors as they believe they are destined for victory, much like many traders who cling to the belief that improbable outcomes are within their grasp.
Mob psychology and the bandwagon effect rear their heads in the story, too. The players form alliances and teams based on earlier factions, mirroring the tendencies of investors to follow the crowd rather than adhere to their own strategies and analyses. Panic buying, selling frenzies, and susceptibility to pump-and-dump schemes ensue.
In the financial world, these psychological phenomena can lead us astray, costing us dearly. But unlike the brutal Squid Game, financial markets aren't a zero-sum game. With a solid understanding of market characteristics, rules, and diligent research, you can gain a statistical edge. As a trader, I'd argue that technical knowledge accounts for less than 5% of the equation; it's all about mastering your cognitive biases and maintaining emotional control.
So, just as the surviving players in Squid Game strive to outlast their competition, investors and traders should strive to outsmart their own psychological pitfalls. In the end, success in the market isn't about luck but about mastering the intricacies of the human mind in a complex financial world.
If you found this insightful, don't forget to like and follow for more quality content! Feel free to share your thoughts and questions below—let's navigate this financial journey together!"
This chart is inspired by @Michael_Wang_Official
Investing
DXY UPDATEIn my last analysis below I said that I would not short DXY yet, only if it is around 106 , now I give a higher probability that DXY will try 108. WHY?
Everyone sees that this movement is nearing its end, some have already lost money because they were short before , after that - deviation, then downward movement.
When that happens, I think it will reach the last relief of this year with SPX, GOLD, BTC, and other assets.
Great chartChart and fundamental very best stock for investment
Consider for portfolio stock
My Target is 7450 stoploss and 9500 Target
Israel war so be careful may be stock market bearish so take own risk no recommendation for buy and sell
No recommendation from me for buy or sell
Take own analysis
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 6, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The index's downward trend this week kicked on the seat of the pants of our projected target, Inner Index Dip 4212, repeatedly. Mean Res 4340 and even extend to Mean Res 4400 on the radar for the upcoming week's trading action; however, reignited Pivotal Down Move from Mean Res 4400 could weed out weak trading trawlers.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 6, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has tested the Outer Currency Dip of 1.050 multiple times. It has risen during this week's trading session, as our EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of September 29 indicated: For the upcoming week, the up target is Mean Res 1.062, and on the downside the Mean Sup 1.050 and completed Outer Currency Dip of 1.050.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 6, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
As stated in the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of September 29, the upward trend continued throughout the week's trading. Presently, the cryptocurrency is prepping for a surge towards Inner Coin Rally 29300, which will be followed by a decline to 28000.
AUDCAD - Are we in 2006?Taking a look on how this pair trades led me to find similar patterns in the past that we may be going through in the charts today.
Market moves labeled from W - Z showing approximately where we stand.
Based off what we see this would be a signal to mainly look for long positions over shorts in the long run.
As we creep into 2024 this gives us a quick bull run into 2025 anticipating future downdraw.
This would put us in a sideways market like shown around the '06 - '09 years.
With this data you can match your research to add confluence in your investment strategy, trade ideas, and much more.
*Not Financial Advice - DYDD*
⭐️ The gold rush begins... now!
Gold is very strongly correlated with 10-year US bonds TVC:US10Y , such a high correlation there began immediately after the 2008 crisis (coincidence?). This next year, 10-year yields are unlikely to go above 5.5%, which means the potential for gold to fall is very limited.
Now the yield on 10-year bonds is 4.74% and only +~0.7% is left to reach the 5.5% mark.
In this case, gold has the potential to fall by another -7.5-10% from the current ones, that is, in theory, the price of gold will find its mid- and long-term bottom at $1,700-1,750.
🔥 What does the technical analysis say?
On the weekly timeframe, gold entered the oversold zone according to indicators. Historically, from such levels, this asset bounced upward.
On the daily timeframe the situation is even more interesting.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD Gold has gone into a very oversold zone, and the last time the indicator had such values was 7 years ago!
Also, the price is at the lower border of the medium-term downward channel, the support level of 1831 points and the long-term moving average MA200w.
The technique suggests at least a technical rebound on which you can make money.
In this case, the minimum growth target will be in the area of 1887-1900 points.
📊 Result:
The most liquid asset in the world is in a very strongly oversold zone, and if we are not at the bottom now, then the bottom is clearly very close, so at current prices you can buy both speculatively and long-term.
But you need to be prepared to buy additional assets in the area of 1700-1750 points (potential drawdown of only -3.3%).
💡 Idea: long gold with leverage up to 20x.
In this case, the stop should be placed at 1790 (-1.65%) points, and the take profit in the area of 1887-1900 (+4.11%) points.
⚖️ Risk/profit: ~1k4.
Crude oil LONG First try I will make a new analysis because you have the whole downward movement described in detail step by step.
Now we looking for long. First try there, if we go done eyes are fixed on 80$. WHY?
100, 200, VAH last range. Below that I am not bullish anymore because we should not go back to the old range.
Voltas Mid Term View - Double BottomVoltas is reversing from the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels of the previous swing in Monthly Timeframe with a Double Bottom and Bullish RSI Divergence which is a very Bullish pattern.
Daily timeframe shows a price compression too.
Once the Monthly candle crosses above the Trendline, can look for the marked SUPPLY LEVELS as target levels. Bottom fishing with small SL!
📊 Comparing LTC | BTC Halving🔍 Litecoin Halving Recap:
Litecoin, often dubbed the "silver" to Bitcoin's "gold," had its halving event in the past. After Litecoin's halving, it's worth noting that the price experienced a notable dip, plummeting by approximately 70%. This dip left many investors wondering if the halving event was a disappointment.
💡 The Valuable Lesson:
So, what can we learn from Litecoin's post-halving price drop? Well, it's essential to understand that market reactions to halving events can be complex. In Litecoin's case, the immediate dip could be attributed to a phenomenon called "buy the rumor, sell the news." Essentially, some traders may have speculated on Litecoin's halving, driving up the price before the event, only to sell off once it happened.
💭 What It Means for Bitcoin:
Now, let's apply this lesson to Bitcoin. As we know, Bitcoin has a scheduled halving event that occurs approximately every four years. If we use Litecoin's experience as a reference point, we can anticipate that Bitcoin's price might experience fluctuations around its halving as well.
However, here's the key takeaway: the post-halving dip doesn't necessarily mean a long-term bearish trend. In fact, historical data shows that Bitcoin has consistently rebounded and experienced significant price rallies following its halving events.
🚀 Conclusion:
In the world of cryptocurrencies, historical patterns can offer valuable insights, but they should be viewed as guides rather than guarantees. Market dynamics can change, and various factors can influence price movements.
So, when it comes to Bitcoin and its upcoming halving events, it's crucial to stay informed, remain patient, and not be swayed by short-term fluctuations. Keep a long-term perspective, and remember that cryptocurrencies have shown remarkable resilience and growth over time.
❗️Get my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! Link below🔑
MES1! Falling Wedge/Key TL Support BounceSo I am planning to pivot to futures. This is what I am watching on the Micro E mini SP500. The weekly chart is showing a possible bounce from the overall trendline. Not only that, price is forming a falling wedge and a nicely lower wicked candle indicating that buyers may be stepping in at this intermediate support level (Blue zone). To add more confluence to this analysis, Price is also sitting at the 61.8% fib as well as the 50 EMA.
There are two key areas I am monitoring for now before even entering a trade of any kind. The current weekly candle is sitting between a support and resistance and is technically in a range until it breaks upward or downward.
If price creates a bullish weekly candle break and close above the red zone, more specifically above $4383.25 then I will begin looking for bullish setups on smaller timeframes to fill the FVG created on the weekly.
If price creates a bearish weekly candle break and close below the trendline AND the intermediate support (blue zone) at $4252.60, I will watch for price to hold the major support (green zone) within this wedge for a bounce and continued move upward.
I will only become bearish on the market if it breaks below the green support and retests as resistance.
I f you're wondering which indicator i'm using it is the "Jeanius Indicator & Jeanius Screener" created by @hazelheritage follow him on here. Not only does he automate strategies for a living, he has created a beast of an indicator and screener to further ease our engagement with the charts by automating the automation process lol ... Hit him up to get access and find out what I mean by automating automation.
(Description: Bottom left is the indicator. The indicator signals a plethora of common strategies from SMC to simple B&Rs of support levels and trendlines on which ever chart you're on. Although I have removed signals from the chart itself, the indicator box signals the long and short signals that I look for according to my strategy.
Bottom right is the screener. The screener allows you to input your top 25 most watched tickers and constantly get updates on them and where they are in structure even when you're not on their chart. It tells me if there is a liquidity sweep, if price is at a support or resistance, the direction price is trending, if its at a trendline, if there was a B&R, if price is touching a FVG, if there was a BOS and CHOCH and so much more.) I can't put it all into one post. If you're interested just let me know.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of September 29, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Based on this week's trading action, the Inner Index Dip 4212 seems to be experiencing a bias to a continued downward side pattern. The Mean Sup 4246 is playing a crucial role in holding the price. But, there's a chance that the market could rebound to Mean Res 4340 and even extend to Mean Res 4400 on the upside potential.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of September 29, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has successfully reached our predicted Next Outer Currency Dip of 1.050 and has since rebounded strongly to retest the previously achieved Outer Currency Dip of 1.062, which is now considered a new resistance point. It is possible that the trading zone may continue to rise. The next target for a decrease is the retest of the Mean Sup and Outer Currency Dip of 1.050.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 29, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Sliding down from Mean Res 27200 was this week's trading order. Following the rebound from the newly created Mean Sup 26200 and completed Inner Coin Dip 26000, the upside move is ongoing. Nevertheless, there is also a chance that the market may fall to Mean Support 26500 before resuming its upside movement.
#DXY is at risk of hitting this year's High at 106 US Dollar index upside is now limited at price is about to approach a golden ratio of 0.618 at the level 106 which also serves as the psychological level.
Going back a year ago, 28th Sept 2022, DXY did hit its Multi Year High at 114 which incurred severe correction until the lows of Feb 2023.
We shall therefore anticipate major reversal from the different major pairs that are correlated with #DXY.
#marketpainterph_dxy
Berkshire (BRK.B) -> Trend ContinuationMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Berkshire Hathaway.
At the moment you can see that Berkshire stock is retesing its previous all time high which is roughly at the $350 area and we might see another short term bearish rejection.
However considering that the overall trend is still very bullish I am waiting for a simple break and retest of the current resistance level and then I am looking for a trend continuation.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
Nailing Market Bottoms with Precision! 🎯📉Cryptocurrency markets are notorious for their volatility, making it challenging to identify the perfect entry points, especially during bearish cycles. However, a game-changing tool has emerged, the Investor Tool BTC Indicator, renowned for its remarkable accuracy in pinpointing true market bottoms. In this post, we'll explore the incredible capabilities of this indicator and its astounding track record of never missing the mark. Its next target? A staggering $150,000 per Bitcoin!
Cracking the Code: Investor Tool BTC Indicator
The Investor Tool BTC Indicator is a cutting-edge tool designed to decipher market sentiment and identify optimal entry points.
What sets this indicator apart is its exceptional accuracy in recognizing the true bottom of a bearish cycle.
Unveiling the Power: How It Works
The Investor Tool BTC Indicator employs a complex algorithm that considers various market factors, sentiment analysis, and historical data.
Its unique methodology filters out market noise, providing crystal-clear signals during uncertain times.
The Unparalleled Track Record: Never Misses the Mark
Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of the Investor Tool BTC Indicator is its impeccable track record.
Historically, it has accurately identified market bottoms without fail, instilling confidence in traders and investors.
Setting Sights on the Future: $150,000 per Bitcoin!
With its uncanny ability to call market bottoms, the Investor Tool BTC Indicator has set its next target: a jaw-dropping $150,000 per Bitcoin.
Traders and investors are watching closely, eagerly anticipating this remarkable price milestone.
Leveraging the Indicator: A Game Plan
Timing: Keep a watchful eye on the indicator's signals and act swiftly when it identifies a market bottom.
Risk Management: Despite its accuracy, always employ sound risk management strategies to protect your investments.
Continuous Monitoring: Stay updated with the indicator's signals and be ready to adapt to changing market conditions.
In conclusion, the Investor Tool BTC Indicator has revolutionized the way we approach cryptocurrency trading by consistently identifying market bottoms with unparalleled precision. As it sets its sights on the ambitious target of $150,000 per Bitcoin, traders and investors are eager to capitalize on its next remarkable prediction. Remember to combine this tool with comprehensive analysis and prudent risk management for a well-rounded trading strategy. 🚀💰🚀
Peter Lynch's Timeless Investing Principles
Introduction
Peter Lynch, one of the most celebrated investors of all time, is renowned for his remarkable track record managing the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990. Under his stewardship, the fund generated average annual returns of approximately 29%, outperforming the S&P 500 by a substantial margin. Lynch's success was not just a stroke of luck; it was the result of a well-thought-out investment philosophy and principles that remain relevant to this day. In this five-page article, we will delve into the core principles that underpin Peter Lynch's approach to investing and explore how these principles can be applied by individual investors seeking to achieve their financial goals.
I. Invest in What You Know
One of the foundational principles of Peter Lynch's investment philosophy is to "invest in what you know." This principle emphasizes the importance of understanding the companies and industries you invest in. Lynch believed that individual investors have a natural advantage over professional fund managers because they can leverage their everyday experiences and knowledge to identify promising investment opportunities.
Lynch often cited examples from his personal life to illustrate this principle. For instance, he famously discovered the potential of the Hanes Corporation when he noticed his wife buying their products. He reasoned that if his family liked the company's products, there was a good chance that others did too. This simple observation led to a highly profitable investment.
II. Long-Term Perspective
Lynch advocates taking a long-term perspective when it comes to investing. He discouraged frequent trading and market-timing, believing that such strategies often led to poor performance and excessive transaction costs. Lynch's approach focused on identifying fundamentally strong companies and holding them for the long haul.
He often remarked, "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." This means that in the short term, stock prices can be influenced by emotions and market sentiment, but over the long term, the fundamentals of a company will ultimately determine its stock price.
III. The P/E Ratio
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is a fundamental metric Lynch frequently employed in his investment analysis. He believed that the P/E ratio could provide valuable insights into a company's valuation. A low P/E ratio might indicate an undervalued stock, while a high P/E ratio could suggest an overvalued one.
However, Lynch cautioned against relying solely on the P/E ratio. He emphasized the importance of considering a company's growth prospects, industry dynamics, and competitive position when evaluating its stock. A low P/E ratio might be justified if a company has strong growth potential.
IV. Diversification and Concentration
Peter Lynch had a nuanced approach to diversification. While he recognized the benefits of spreading risk across different investments, he also believed in concentration when you have high conviction in a particular investment opportunity. This approach is sometimes referred to as "diworsification" – spreading investments too thin, which can dilute returns.
Lynch advocated holding a concentrated portfolio of your best ideas while still maintaining a level of diversification to mitigate risk. He noted that over-diversification could limit potential gains and lead to mediocre performance.
V. Be Patient and Contrarian
Lynch's investment philosophy often aligned with being patient and contrarian. He suggested that investors should not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations or popular trends. Instead, they should have the patience to wait for the market to recognize the value of their investments.
Moreover, Lynch saw value in going against the crowd when necessary. He believed that some of the best investment opportunities could be found in out-of-favor industries or companies that others were avoiding. Contrarian thinking often led him to uncover hidden gems.
VI. Stay Informed and Do Your Homework
Despite his emphasis on simplicity and "investing in what you know," Lynch was a firm advocate of doing thorough research and staying informed. He advised investors to study financial statements, read annual reports, and understand the ins and outs of the companies they invested in.
Furthermore, Lynch recommended paying attention to economic indicators and industry trends. Being well-informed allowed him to make informed investment decisions and identify potential risks and opportunities.
Conclusion
Peter Lynch's principles of investing continue to resonate with both novice and experienced investors. His common-sense approach, emphasis on knowledge and patience, and focus on long-term value have stood the test of time. By adhering to these principles, individual investors can navigate the complex world of finance with confidence and increase their chances of achieving their financial goals. Whether you are a seasoned investor or just starting on your investment journey, Peter Lynch's timeless wisdom provides a solid foundation for success in the world of investing.
Investing vs Trading: A Comparative AnalysisHello, money enthusiasts! Whether you're a Wall Street wolf or a Main Street newbie, today we're diving into the exhilarating world of finance to dissect two popular money-growing strategies - investing and trading. So, sit back, relax, and prepare to soak up some knowledge!
The Basics
Let's kick things off with some simple definitions. Think of investing as adopting a kittens. It requires time, patience, and care, but over the years, the bond strengthens and becomes incredibly rewarding.
On the flip side, trading is like pet-sitting. You look after someone else's pet for a short while, enjoy the perks, and then move on to the next one. It's all about quick interactions and constant change.
Risk & Reward: The Financial Tango
In the world of finance, risk and reward are partners, always moving together. Investing often involves lower risk and lower returns over a long haul. It's a slow waltz where you glide along with the rhythm of the market.
Trading, however, is a fast-paced salsa. It's high risk, high reward, and you need to keep up with the tempo. The possibility of quick gains is exciting, but remember - one misstep can lead to a financial tumble.
Time Commitment: Marathon vs Sprint
Investing is like running a marathon. Once you've done your research, picked your stocks (your training plan), and invested, you can pace yourself and wait for the finish line.
Trading, in contrast, is a series of sprints. It demands constant attention, quick decisions, and the stamina to keep going. You need to be on your toes, ready to sprint when the starting gun fires.
Skills & Knowledge: Driving vs Racing
Investing generally requires a basic understanding of a company’s fundamentals, kind of like driving a car. You know the basics, you follow the rules, and you get to your destination safely.
Trading, however, is like racing. It requires an in-depth understanding of market trends, technical analysis, and financial charts. You need to know your vehicle inside out, anticipate the moves of other drivers, and make split-second decisions.
Emotion & Stress: Meditation vs Thrill Ride
Investing is akin to a meditation session. It's slow, steady, and although it might seem boring at times, it's beneficial in the long run.
Trading, on the other hand, is like a thrill ride. It's exhilarating, nerve-wracking, and requires a strong stomach. But for some, the thrill is part of the appeal!
In conclusion, whether you choose to invest or trade depends on your risk appetite, time commitment, knowledge level, and how much excitement you want from your money. Neither approach is inherently better—they're just different strategies to reach financial growth.
So, are you the patient pet owner, nurturing your investment over time? Or are you the dynamic pet-sitter, always looking for the next opportunity? Whichever path you choose, remember to stay informed, stay calm, and may your financial journey be prosperous. Happy money managing!
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of September 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading, the Eurodollar fulfilled its legacy by completing our Outer Currency Dip of 1.062 with an intermediate rebound retest to Mean Res 1.070 and 1.075 possibilities. The next major down target is the Outer Currency Dip of 1.050.