Investment
NSE:DELHIVERY Looks BullishDisclaimer: I am not registered advisor, take your action after your personal analysis and taking advise from your professional registered advisor. Its just and idea shared, we are not recommending any buy or sell call for this stock.
Delhivery Ltd. is near its long term support, if breaks & close below 340 will make it more weak.
However, this stock is currently near all time low and good RR ratio is making it attractive for long term.
An attempt for buying is forming if 15 minute candle close above 356 Rs., later if crosses & close above 380 can be trail for long term.
Euro Crash. ( Updated ) O.o
We update the analysis of the Euro that we have already done on other occasions. I think it's very easy to see what happens here.
- Bearish Channel, bouncing off institutional support or resistance zones, but with a dark future. Where the highest probability will be to see the Euro again at $0.85 very soon in 2023 (as we discussed in previous analyses) but also after a break of perhaps 1 and a half years of setback and relief. We will be able to live a new strong Fall until the year 2026 where we could see a Euro in values of $0.75 and finally for the year 2030 a fall of up to $0.64 to $0.56.
As we can see, it is NOT safe to maintain any currency other than the USD, since this is the dominant one, but the dollar does not protect us. The dollar is very damaged with a loss of more than 98% of the purchasing power of citizens over the years, but within all currencies it is the STRONGEST.
- On the other hand we will be able to see that the projections for the rest of the currencies are also horrendous, with which it will not be an isolated case only for the euro. We may see a Pound (GBP) at $0.85 by 2026 and up to $0.50 by 2030 if the trend DOES NOT CHANGE. And if he hasn't done it in all these years... why should he now?
- At the same time we can observe the currency of Japan (Japanese Yen) This currency seemed to be quite respected against the dollar, but that is over. We are facing a macro figure of change in trend. (A pattern known as the Inverted Headshoulder, + Bottom Round + Past Trend Break + Trend Reversal Confirmation by Breaking Previous Relative Highs)
It is time to worry and go. We are about to witness a loss of Value with respect to the dollar of at least 50%, 60%, 70% and the Japanese Yen up to values of 150% (in case of breaking the levels of 160) from June of the year 2021 until the year 2030
Why is it better for Europeans to keep their savings in CHF ?Why is it better for Europeans to keep their security/savings in Swiss francs rather than in euros?
Hi everyone,
An idea that’s a little different from usual, but today I wanted to explain why it is better for Europeans to keep their security/savings funds in Swiss Francs rather than in Euros.
Let's start with some history. A strong economy, low debt and high foreign investment all combine to make the Swiss franc a strong currency and a safe haven. But the strength of the Swiss franc is not new. Today's Swiss franc draws its strength from its long history, from its economic ties with Switzerland and its main partners.
Strong vs. weak currency
The notion of a strong currency is quite relative: a currency can be strong against one currency, and weak against another. The euro is strong against the Japanese yen but weak against the Swiss franc.
Let’s take the EUR/CHF pair as an example (in other words, what one euro is worth after conversion into Swiss francs). At the beginning of 2008, it cost about 1,638 Swiss francs to obtain 1,000 euros, whereas today it costs only 984 Swiss francs to obtain the same amount.
While in absolute terms these two currencies can be considered strong, the Swiss franc has won the match against the euro over the last decade with a positive evolution of the exchange rate against the single currency.
Once we understand the concept of the exchange rate between currencies and its constant fluctuation, it is not very complicated to start to have a small idea of where we want to go to benefit from it.
Why is the Swiss franc so powerful?
In the case of Switzerland, three important factors explain the robustness of the Swiss franc compared to other currencies:
- The economic growth ; rather in good shape in comparison with the rest of the world and has managed to get through the last few crises without too much damage.
- Low debt ; despite the crisis, Switzerland's debt level remains well below that of its European counterparts. While Switzerland's debt ratio does not exceed 30% of GDP, those of its neighbours soar to 116.3% for France and 153.5% for Italy.
- The stability of the geopolitical context ; Unlike some monetary zones that are relatively unstable due to geopolitical factors and/or galloping inflation, Switzerland is reassuring because of its great economic and political stability.
A correlation between the Swiss franc and the N100 (Euronext 100 index)?
Yes, but not only that, it seems obvious from the different developments of these two assets that a correlation link is indeed present. It is relatively simple to explain. We can observe that in the past, when the N100 performs well, it attracts investors and at the same time, it increases the strength of the euro and therefore decreases the strength of the Swiss Franc. In times of economic uncertainty or recession, however, investors flee the N100 and the euro to seek refuge (hence the term "safe haven") in the Swiss franc. The strength of the Swiss franc then increases and allows the investor to continue to gain purchasing power.
We can also add to this that it is a very good way for European investors who wish to keep their savings liquid to fight inflation. Indeed, in 2021, the average inflation in the euro zone was 5% while the Swiss franc rose by 4.47% against the euro. We can therefore deduce that a European who has left his liquid assets in euro has lost 5% of his purchasing power, whereas a European who has converted his liquid assets into Swiss Francs has only lost 0.53% of his purchasing power.
So why is it important to keep your savings in Swiss francs?
If you want to keep your savings liquid while avoiding taking too much risk, it seems obvious to me that keeping them in Swiss francs is the best solution. The Swiss franc, compared to the euro, has all the advantages of a financial investment, while retaining the liquidity of a currency. It is obviously less risky than gold or commodities and provides an average annual return of about 3% over the last ten years. It is a good way to convert these investments into cash during recessions, but also to fight inflation during periods of uncertainty or to protect savings against the rising cost of living.
How to find the best conversion point?
Technical analysis lovers, it's up to us, let's start with this obvious bearish channel presented since early 2018. We can observe that the Swiss franc is gaining more and more strength against the euro and continues to oscillate within this channel. At the time of writing this article (November 11, 2022) we could observe during the last month a bullish reversal pattern which has not been validated yet, but which came to test the resistance n°1 (0.99453CHF). For the time being, even with this reversal figure in daily time unit, the euro remains bearish against the Swiss franc. It is therefore still interesting to convert savings into Swiss francs. We can consider a reversal when the euro breaks the 5 resistances and especially when we have a confirmed breakout from the top of the bearish channel.
From a more macroeconomic point of view, we have observed a correlation link between the N100 and the EUR/CHF, we can thus deduce that when the N100 performs, the euro gains strenght and it becomes more advantageous to keep its savings in euros. When the N100 falls, the euro falls and the Swiss franc becomes stronger. The best conversion point is therefore logically the transition from a period of sustainability for the euro zone, to a period of uncertainty. This is what we saw on 24 February following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
How can you increase your profitability by combining the Swiss franc with your investments?
Let's assume that you are an average French investor, you have invested part of your savings in an ETF/Tracker representing the 40 largest French companies (Lyxor CAC 40 (DR) UCITS ETF) . You then obtain an average return of 14.36%, smoothed over the last 10 years.
Although this is already a very good performance, like many investors you are suffering from the covid crisis + the Ukrainian geopolitical context which has been causing the markets to fall for over a year now. During this last year, you would have lost 5.69% due to an economic recession.
If we assume that you know that when the markets are down it is better to convert your investment back into cash and more specifically into Swiss Francs, you would have validated your gains of the previous 9 years, i.e. 149.34% which you would have converted into Swiss Francs. In one year, you would have earned 7.07% more on your investment. Therefore, you would have gone from a smoothed return of 14.36% to 15.64% over the last 10 years.
So you can see that combining investments with safe havens in times of crisis can help you boost your profitability. We can also add that over the last 10 years you could have converted your investment during the covid period (March 2020) which would have further increased your profitability.
Conclusion
The Swiss franc is your ally, so use it! Whether it is to protect your savings from inflation or to boost your profitability during periods of economic downturn, the Swiss franc is a very powerful lever for your finances and your investments. It allows you to maintain a certain amount of liquidity while suffering from more moderate inflation than in the euro zone.
Disclamer
I would like to remind you that if you are domiciled in France or Monaco, you must declare to the tax authorities any accounts opened, held, used (at least once) or closed during the year abroad.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE !
If you have any questions, I remain at your disposal in the comment space.
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French version
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Pourquoi est-il préférable pour les Européens de conserver leurs fonds de sécurités/épargnes en franc suisse plutôt qu’en euros ?
Bonjour à tous,
Une idée un peu différente de d’habitudes, aujourd’hui je souhaitais vous expliquer pourquoi est il préférable pour les Européens de conserver leurs fonds de sécurités/économies en franc suisse plutôt qu’en euros.
Commençons par un peu d'histoire. Une économie forte, un faible endettement et des investissements étrangers élevés réunissent tous les ingrédients pour faire du franc suisse une monnaie forte et une valeur refuge. Mais cette force du franc suisse n'est pas nouvelle. Le franc suisse d'aujourd'hui tire sa force de son histoire ancienne, de ses liens économiques avec la Suisse ainsi que de ses principaux partenaires.
Monnaie forte vs monnaie faible
La notion de monnaie forte est assez relative : une monnaie peut être forte par rapport à une monnaie, et faible par rapport à une autre. L’euro est fort par rapport au Yen japonais mais faible par rapport au franc suisse.
Si l’on prend comme exemple la paire EUR/CHF (autrement dit, ce que vaut un euro après conversion en franc suisse). Il fallait débourser environ 1 638 francs suisses début 2008 pour obtenir 1000 euros, tandis qu’il suffit aujourd’hui de débourser 984 francs suisses pour obtenir la même somme.
Si dans l’absolu ces deux monnaies peuvent être considérées comme fortes, le franc suisse remporte le match face à l’euro au cours de la dernière décennie avec une évolution positive du taux de change face à la monnaie unique.
Une fois cette notion de taux de change entre les devises, ainsi que de cette perpétuelle fluctuation de ce dernier comprise, il n’est déjà pas très compliqué de commencer à avoir une petite idée d'où nous souhaitons aller pour en tirer profit.
Pourquoi le franc suisse est-il si puissant ?
Dans le cas de la Suisse, trois facteurs importants viennent expliquer la robustesse du franc suisse par rapport à d’autres monnaies :
- la croissance économique ; plutôt en forme en comparaison avec l’international et qui a su traverser les dernières crises sans trop de dommages.
- le faible endettement ; malgré la crise, le niveau d’endettement de la Suisse reste bien inférieur à celui de ses homologues européens. Si le taux d’endettement de la Suisse ne dépasse pas les 30% du PIB, ceux de ses voisins s’envolent avec 116,3% pour la France et 153,5% pour l’Italie.
- la stabilité du contexte géopolitique ; Contrairement à certaines zones monétaires relativement instables en raison de facteurs géopolitiques et/ou d’une inflation galopante, la Suisse rassure de par sa grande stabilité économique et politique.
Un lien de corrélation entre le franc suisse et le N100 (Euronext 100 index) ?
Oui, mais pas que, il parait évident aux vues des différentes évolutions de ces deux actifs qu’un lien de corrélation est bien présent. Il est relativement simple à expliquer. Nous pouvons observer que dans le passé, lorsque le N100 performe il attire des investisseurs, par la même occasion, il fait augmenter la puissance de l’euro et contribue donc à faire diminuer la puissance du franc suisse. Tandis que lors des moment d’incertitude économique ou bien de récession, les investisseurs fuit le N100 ainsi que l’euro pour se réfugier (d’où le terme de monnaie refuge) en franc suisse. La puissance du franc suisse augmente alors et permet au investisseur de continuer à gagner du pouvoir d’achat.
Nous pouvons également ajouter à cela que c’est un très bon moyen pour les investisseurs européens qui souhaitent garder leurs épargnes liquides de lutter contre l’inflation. En effet en 2021, l’inflation moyenne dans la zone euro a été de 5% tandis que le franc suisse à augmenter de 4,47% par rapport à l’euro. Nous pouvons donc en déduire qu’un Européen qui a laissé ces liquidités en euro a perdu 5% de pouvoir d’achat sur ces dernières tandis qu’un Européens qui aurait converti ces liquidités en franc suisse n’aurait quant à lui perdu que 0,53% de son pouvoir d’achat.
Pourquoi est-il donc important de conserver son épargne en franc suisse ?
Dans le cas où vous souhaiter garder votre épargne liquide tout en évitant de prendre des risques trop importants, il me paraît évident que la conserver en franc suisse sera la meilleure des solutions. Le franc suisse par rapport à l’euro, a tous les avantages d’un placement financier, tout en gardant la liquidité d’une monnaie. Il est évidemment moins risqué que l’or ou les matières premières et permet d’obtenir sur ces dix dernière un rendement annuel moyen d’environ 3%. C’est un bon moyen de convertir ces investissements en cash lors des récessions, mais également de lutter contre l’inflation lors des périodes d’incertitudes ou encore de protéger son épargne contre l’augmentation du coût de la vie.
Comment trouver le meilleur point de conversion ?
Amateur d’analyse technique, c’est à nous, commençons par cet évident canal baissier présenter depuis début 2018. Nous pouvons observer que le franc suisse prend de plus en plus de puissance par rapport à l’euro et continue d’osciller à l’intérieur de ce canal. À l’heure où j’écris cet article (le 11 novembre 2022) nous avons pu observer lors du mois dernier une figure de retournement haussière qui n’a pour l’instant certes pas été validée, mais qui est venue tester la résistance n°1 (0.99453CHF). Pour l’instant, même en présence de cette figure de retournement en unité de temps journalière, l’euro reste baissier par rapport au franc suisse. Il reste donc intéressant de convertir son épargne en franc suisse. Nous pourrons envisager un retournement lorsque l’euro viendra casser les 5 résistances et surtout lorsque nous aurons une cassure confirmée par le haut du canal baissier.
D’un point de vue plus macroéconomique, nous avons pu observer un lien de corrélation entre le N100 et l’EUR/CHF, nous pouvons en déduire que lorsque le N100 performe, l’euro prend de la puissance et il devient donc plus avantageux de garder son épargne en euros. Tandis que lorsque le N100 régresse, l’euro chute et donc le franc Suisse prend plus de puissance. Le meilleur point de conversion est donc en toute logique le passage d’une période de pérennité pour la zone euro, à celle d’une période d’incertitude. C’est ce que nous avons pue observer le 24 février dernier suite à l’invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie.
Comment augmenter sa rentabilité en combinant le franc suisse à ses investissements ?
Partons du principe que vous êtes un investisseur français lambda, vous avez placé une partie de vos économies sur un ETF/Tracker représentant les 40 plus grosses sociétés françaises ( Lyxor CAC 40 (DR) UCITS ETF ). Vous obtenez alors un rendement moyen lissé sur les 10 dernières années de 14.36%.
Bien que ce soit déjà une très belle performance, comme beaucoup d’investisseur vous subissez la crise du covid + le contexte géopolitique ukrainien qui fait chuter les marchés depuis maintenant plus d’un an. Lors de cette dernière année, vous auriez perdu 5,69% dû à une récession économique.
Si nous partons du principe que vous savez que lorsque les marchés s’essouffle qu’il est préférable de reconvertir votre investissement en cash et plus particulièrement en franc suisse, vous auriez alors validée vos gains des 9 années précédentes, cette à dire 149,34% que vous auriez alors converti en franc suisse. Ce qui en une année, vous aurez permis de gagner 7,07 % en plus sur votre investissement. Vous seriez donc passé d’un rendement lissé sur ces 10 dernières années de 14,36% à 15,64%.
Vous comprenez donc que combiner l’investissement ainsi que les valeurs refuges en temps de crise peut vous aider à booster votre rentabilité. Nous pouvons ajouter à cela qu'au cours des 10 dernières années vous auriez également pu convertir votre investissement lors de la période du covid (mars 2020) ce qui aurez encore augmenter votre rentabilité.
Conclusion
Le franc suisse est votre allié alors utilisé le ! Que ce soit pour protéger votre épargne de l’inflation ou bien pour booster votre rentabilité lors des périodes d’essoufflement, le franc suisse est un effet de levier très puissant pour vos finances et vos investissements. Il permet de conserver une certaine liquidité tout en subissant une inflation plus modérée que dans la zone euro.
Disclamer
Je tiens à rappeler que si vous êtes domicilié en France ou à Monaco, vous devez déclarer à l'administration fiscale les comptes ouverts, détenus, utilisés (au moins une fois) ou clos dans l'année à l'étranger.
CECI N'EST PAS UN CONSEIL EN INVESTISSEMENT !
Si vous avez des questions, je reste à votre disposition dans l'espace commentaire.
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Thanks to Owen (owensn) for his help with the translation.
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The 7 Levels of Financial Freedom
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss the ladder of financial independence.
Level 1 - Solvency
You cover your debts and living expenses with your income.
Being solvent is considered to be shaky states. Once you stop earning for any sake of a reason, you immediately become in debt.
Level 2 - Stability
Besides being able to cover your living expenses and debts, you also have an emergency savings.
The emergency savings usually cover 1-2 months of your basic expenses, making your state more sustainable.
Level 3 - Debt Freedom
You are free of debts and that lets you start investing and save even more.
It is the transitional level in our ladder from unstable to a secure state.
Level 4 - Security
Your investments cover your basics expenses.
While you keep earning, the money that you invested start bringing more money fortifying your state.
Level 5 - Flexibility
While your investments are still not sufficient to cover all your costs of living, it fully compensates 1-year costs of your basic expenses.
Level 6 - Independence
Your investments cover all your living costs, letting you live wherever you want and spend on luxuries.
Level 7 - Abundance
Money is no more a concern to you. You have more than you and your children will even need.
The understanding of the level where you are is crucially important for building your investment strategy.
Keep working and learning to constantly climb the stairs and grow your wealth.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BNP Paribas (BNP.pa) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart in the French company BNP Paribas S.A. (BNP.pa). BNP Paribas is a French international banking group. With 190,000 employees as of February 2021, the bank is organized into three major business areas: Commercial, Personal Banking & Services (CPBS), Investment & Protection Services (IPS) and Corporate & Institutional Banking (CIB). BNP Paribas is the largest banking group in Europe, after HSBC, and ninth largest Banking group in the world. The Triangle broke through the resistance line on 04/11/2022. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 37 days towards 52.65 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 41.53 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
BNP Paribas SA joined European peers in getting a lift from rising interest rates, with higher income from lending and debt trading propelling earnings past analysts’ estimates.Net interest income at the Paris-based bank rose 9.6% from a year ago, and fixed-income trading jumped 25%, just ahead of the average for the biggest Wall Street firms.
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About to Breakout, Keep this in RadarAfter trading in a lower low pattern for almost a year, Consolidating in a range for 3 months this scrip is trying to move up. It has formed a triangle type pattern and trading near resistance. on a successful breakout and re-test the stock may give a good move. Keep this in radar and trade safe.