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ARM IPO- big price for questionable growthARM made .54 eps in 2022 and .51 eps in 2023. at 51 cents eps, its 124 PE. Revenue per share current is 2.60 revenue per share, giving a price to sales over 20 PS. Its unclear if ARM is growing sales and earnings at a rate that justifies the current premium. Possible multiples examples: if pe goes to: 20pe x .51 = 10.20 30pe x .51 =15.30 40pe x .51= 20.40 so clearly there is some high growth rate implied at the current price. Implied growth rate is in the 30% to 60 % annual growth range. If its not a grower, is it priced as a tech hedge? in case other firms buy it? From a value and growth investor perspective, the math doesnt add up.
NASDAQ:ARM
by optionfarmers
ARM: Be careful chasing hot IPOs.NASDAQ:ARM see a lot of FOMO here.. Remember: Don't market buy. They will fill your order as high as possible. Don't FOMO buy. Don't force a trade. SoftBank is a dumper. They tried dumping ARM in 2020 for a +25% gain to $NVDA. Let that sink in. Also, don't short it. You might get roasted. SoftBank bought 25% stake at 64B valuation recently. That means that should serve as a decent floor. The other floor is 40B which NASDAQ:NVDA would scoop up I imagine. Follow for more tips & like this post. Your support is appreciated.
NASDAQ:ARMEducation
by kingdips
1
BDKR - PRIMARY BASEI bought my positions today May 25, 2023 The reasons: 1. Low-risk entry point 2. The stock offers the first buyable base after an IPO 3. It has a very tight pivot level/line of the least resistance 4. High relative strength stock 5. It has VCP characteristics 6. I got an 80% win rate on a primary base setup Flaw: 1. The market is still in a correction 2. Lack of setup in the market I had a pilot position on May 23, 2023. Today, I added it into a full position.
BLong
by rifqonr
The end of the SaaSacre and the rise of generative AIWe recently had the pleasure of speaking with Janelle Teng of Bessemer Venture Partners (BVP). Janelle is a vice president at BVP, focused primarily on cloud software, infrastructure and developer platforms. WisdomTree began working with BVP in 2020 to launch WisdomTree’s Cloud Computing Strategy which tracks the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index. This blog is a summary of the key takeaways from the discussion. The SaaSacre1 of 2022 We had to start by recognising the feeling of our current environment, which comes largely from what BVP has termed the ‘SaaSacre’ of 2022. What is a SaaSacre? If one pulls up the return of the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index during 2022 and sees a figure worse than -40%, then they will see it – that drop is the SaaSacre. The market underwent a complete adjustment to valuations across the board, going from peak levels observed in late 2022 to levels much lower reflecting, among other things, a higher general interest rate environment brought on by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors in software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies tended to see an opposite relationship during 2022, where, as interest rates rose, SaaS valuations fell and vice versa2. While it is logical that companies that expect to deliver cash flows far into the future would see their valuations impacted by interest rates, the relationship is not always so stark. The 3 archetypes of COVID-19 shocks on growth S-curves The S-curve is a commonly used heuristic to help investors relate time, plotted on the horizontal axis, to adoption, plotted on the vertical axis. A steeper S-curve = faster adoption. An S-curve moved vertically upwards = a larger adoption. The COVID-19 pandemic was a shock that changed the position of the S-curves of various SaaS companies. If we can understand at least a few archetypes of how this occurred, it can help us to better evaluate how companies are doing now, largely on the other side of the shock. We show these examples in Figure 13: Temporary exponential growth from illusion of market opportunity: this shock would appear as a bulge upwards in the upper portion of the S-curve—telling us that adoption picked up rapidly for a period of time—before dropping back to the original trend. Unsustainable exponential growth due to acceleration within original market opportunity: this shock would appear as a steeper S-curve, with the rising slope pulled further to the left telling us that adoption was occurring suddenly, faster—with the top level peaking at the same place as originally intended, but just arriving there sooner. Many people are familiar with Zoom Video Communications, and this company’s pandemic experience seems to largely be consistent with this archetype. New growth baseline from expanded market opportunity: while it may be easy for CEOs to tell us all a story about how they now have a ‘new growth baseline’, it is far more difficult to actually deliver and execute on than it is to say. If there is one area where this happened, it was in food delivery, in that after the pandemic the general person thinks differently about using certain services, be it Uber Eats or DoorDash. The difficulty of making predictions In thematic topics, it is frequently difficult to make predictions about growth rates and the ultimate sizes of given markets. In the conversation with Janelle, we talked about an example of some forecasts that Gartner had made regarding Worldwide Public Cloud Service Revenues4. In April of 2019, the prediction for 2022 was $331 billion. In April of 2022, the prediction for 2022 was $495 billion, significantly higher. Initial public offerings (IPO’s) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) We spent time talking about what we were seeing, or put more accurately weren’t seeing, in 2022, and that was IPOs. A significant benefit of speaking with Janelle and BVP is that there is a sense of history. We can recognise that 2021 was an outlier year, in that the aggregate value of software IPOs priced was in the vicinity of $28 billion. Even without the historic shift in policy at the Fed, Figure 2 shows that matching anything close to 2021’s result was going to be difficult. Within the category of corporate actions, sometimes you see M&As (Adobe’s intended purchase of Figma was a big example) and sometimes you see private equity players making investments. So-called ‘take-privates’ in 2022 were extremely active, and we saw many such examples through the year. Growth vs profitability One of the questions that we hear often regards what is more important, growth or profitability? In recent years, maybe the real answer is, ‘it depends when you ask.’ It’s very clear that those of us following the software space in 2018 and 2019 saw that growth was of the utmost importance. In 2022, on the other hand, we were hearing a lot more about profitability. Janelle was able to walk through some work done by BVP within the 2023 State of the Cloud report, the gist of which was, when considering the impact on valuations5: November 2021: revenue growth was about six times as impactful on valuations as profitability. October 2022: the importance of revenue growth and profitability were roughly equal in their impact on valuations. April 2023: revenue growth was about two times as impactful on valuations as profitability. The true conclusion: It is never all growth and it is never all profitability, but it is important to be aware of how the focus on these measures can ebb and flow across time. Generative AI is going to be everywhere Janelle and I spoke the day after Microsoft reported its quarterly earnings for the period ended March 31, 2023. We briefly touched on this quote from Amy Hood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer6: “In Azure, we expect revenue growth to be 26% to 27% in constant currency, including roughly 1 point from AI services." We can also note this statement from Satya Nadella, CEO7: “Our Azure OpenAI Service brings together advanced models, including ChatGPT and GPT-4, with the enterprise capabilities of Azure. From Coursera and Grammarly, to Mercedes-Benz and Shell, we now have more than 2,500 Azure OpenAI Service customers, up 10X quarter-over-quarter.” Janelle and I discussed how the big companies, in this case represented by Microsoft, are important, in that they tell us something about broader enterprise consumption and spending, leading to better clarity on the environment that the more ‘emerging’ cloud companies have to operate within. Microsoft is sending a big signal on generative artificial intelligence (AI), and we believe we will continue to see it spreading across many different companies. Bottom line: lots of growth catalysts for those with more time Even if we recognise the uncertainty in the current 2023 economic environment, those investors with a longer time horizon can take advantage, positioning for important growth drivers looking forward. It is rare that companies with the largest market capitalisations in the world are able to announce something that could have a material impact on revenue growth, but that is just what generative AI seems to be as we write these words. Sources 1 SaaSacre is a term from BVP, combining ‘SaaS’ and massacre, to help illustrate in words the tough performance environment observed in 2022. 2 Source: bvp-atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2023 3 Source: nextbigteng.substack the-reckoning-of-pandemic-tech-darlings 4 Source: nextbigteng.substack.com the-reckoning-of-pandemic-tech-darlings 5 Source: bvp atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2023?from=feature 6 Source: Microsoft earnings FY23Q3 7 Source: Microsoft earnings FY23Q3
SPARKS:AIX
by aneekaguptaWTE
A company well positioned for its second growth phaseYALA is in my opinion undervalued at current market prices. The stock provides a strong thesis for both the fundamental and technical trader. Their revenue has grown from 42mn in 2018 to 303mn in 2022. Net Income has grown from 20mn in 2018 to 78mn in 2022. Paying users for the products has grown by 49% relative to 2021. Monthly active users (MAU) has grown by 14% in 2022. No debt; you take out accrued expenses and unearned revenue, they barely have any current liabilities either. Cash balance has grown by 2300% since 2018. Cash per share is 2.57 vs the current market price of 3.84 - Adjust cash per share and you are buying this stock for $1.27 Relative to its industry: PE 6 vs Industry PE of 27 PS 1.80 vs Industry PS of 5.50 P/B of 1.26 vs Industry P/B of 2.60 Cash/Share of 2.57 vs Industry Cash/Share of 0.19 Technically, there is some solid support at 3.40 for traders to risk off of. The stock just closed back above the 200MA on above average volume. Ideally I would be targeting the medium term resistance at $5.50. Hence the trade provides a R/R of around 1:3.
NYSE:YALALong
by xTDGS
XCH looking good in this rangeAfter the price drops massively the first year after trading started from the low volume ~1k USD per XCH during feature trading and a peak up above 2k USD the price now is in a range between ~30 USD and ~50 USD. The network space slowly started to grow ~10% since january 2023 and can be considered stable since july 2022. The node count is ~115k (ETH ~7k, BTC ~17k). The inflation is still high with ~9k XCH per day, 1st halving is ~ Q1 2024. Meanwhile the circulating supply reaches 25% of the total supply, 75% is hold by the Chia Company. The company announced a few days ago to have submited the registration to the U.S. SEC. In my opinion that is a positive sign but it should also not be overrated at this point. They still need to build valueable partnerships and the global market may dip again. ETH could build up sell pressure or other bad news can shock that market again. On the other side people could buy crypto because they think it is worth more in the future than keeping their fiat. I also still expect the tech market to dip again and maybe the financial market too. I just hope that china does not do the russian a**h*** move and invades it's neighbors too. Climate crises also can have a bigger impact on the markets the next years than many expect. I am still surprised that people think that buying a Tesla or "green" fuel does save us from destroing our own environment we need to live in. I just hope for a bullrun or two before the people wake up. ;-) But who knows what happens next, pls tell me. ;-) As always, no financial advice.
by Just4FunTrader
Pullback buy in LTHLife Time owns and operates a chain of “athletic country clubs.” They are basically high-end gyms offering everything from free weights and elliptical machines to steam saunas and smoothie bars. The company went public in late 2021, right before the bear market began. But the stock is now soaring… I have circled the signs of accumulation in the volume candles at the bottom of the chart. Notice the huge influx of buying on the way up and the relatively light volume on retracements. This looks like institutional buying and a sign that buyers are still in control. Last week’s pullback to the 21-day moving average is buyable in my opinion and should be a good entry point as long as the overall market holds up. I am taking a position here with a stop below 17.00.
NYSE:LTHLong
by rossgivens
Long trade in TOSTTOST went public in late 2021 - just in time to get slaughtered in last year's bear market. But the stock is now turning around. I like the late-2021 and 2022 IPO bucket since a lot of these names have not had a chance to shine in a healthy market. Many are trading for a fraction of their IPO price and beginning to shine. TOST is one of them. After nearly doubling off its lows in the middle of last year, TOST began forming a large consolidation base. Notice how the stock respects its 200-day moving average. What was initially resistance has become support after reclaiming the 200-day, and TOST is now breaking out to new 52-week highs. Last week's pullback to the 21-day moving average (blue line) was immediately bought. We are seeing tennis ball action as TOST jumps right back to its highs which is a good sign of support buying. We are seeing the first base breakout in the stock's history which, historically, has led to substantial upside moves in new companies with game-changing products like Toast. NOTE: The company reports earnings on Thursday, 2/16 so I will be keeping exposure light until we see the numbers and how the stock reacts.
NYSE:TOSTLong
by rossgivens
POLYCAB!! MAJOR TRENDS!Polycab is a great stock with a good fundamentals. i have drawn the major trends supporting from its IPO time and from corona's crash. from past 14-15 months the stock is following the same channel, and has given about no returns. since it has a good fundamentals and the sales are growing nicely, i see a good upside movement. but on the flip side, this channel is acting like a consolidation part after the movement given after 2020 crash. this also says the strength of the stock, which is preventing the stock to fall. after 20th June, it has kept on rising, and recently it gave a pullback. but its a good stock to now buy, since it is landed on a good trend line, and will now rise further on. in the couple of months, i see a good upside movement on this stock. the large blue line which i have drawn is just a speculating line, if possibly the stock gets a good movement, it could go on further rising to that line.
NSE:POLYCABLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
Perfect Buy Points: IPO’s – The Primary BaseJS-Masterclass #8: Perfect Buy Points: IPO’s – The Primary Base When it comes to investing in IPO stocks, new issues don't play by the usual rules. Companies making initial public offerings draw a lot of investor attention. That often results in unusual and brand-new chart patterns. Volatility can rise as investors size up demand for the new stock. Yet there are opportunities in these cases, if you can spot the correct characteristics amid the price-and-volume action. The framework of a good IPO base is simple. The decline from peak to low usually doesn't top 20%, but the most volatile markets have produced declines of up to 50%. The length is often less than five weeks and can be as short as seven days. These two factors alone make IPO bases wayward cousins compared with proper bases, such as the cup with handle and flat base, which need at least five to seven weeks of work. In an IPO base, the pattern typically starts within 25 days of the stock's first day of trading. Know the important similarities with regular bases. For example, the buy point is drawn by taking the prior high and adding 10 cents. The price gain on the breakout should be strong. There are ways to evaluate these blind spots, however. Important factors include seeing a shallow correction within the base during normal market conditions, a large increase in price and a close near session highs on the breakout day, and heavy volume on the breakout day and week. Also, the stock should generally form the base above its IPO price. Example - ServiceNow (NOW) The business software company, went public in June 2012, at 18 a share and has built its primary base during the period from the initial offering to April 2013 when the stock developed its first perfect buy point.
NYSE:NOWEducation
by JS_TechTrading
Special Entry Patterns - IPO'sJS-TechTrading Masterclass : Special Entry Patterns - IPO's In a previous tutorial, I have explained the general characteristics of a perfect buy point. In this tutorial, we will look at IPO's (Initial Public Offerings) and discuss how to identify primary bases. IPO's coming out of primary bases can make huge price moves - let's discuss how to find the next monster mover, similar to what stocks like Amazon could achieve after their Initial Public Offering phase. Perfect Entry Points – IPO’s – The Primary Base When it comes to investing in IPO stocks, new issues don't play by the usual rules. Companies making initial public offerings draw a lot of investor attention. That often results in unusual and brand-new chart patterns. Volatility can rise as investors size up demand for the new stock. Yet there are opportunities in these cases, if you can spot the correct characteristics amid the price-and-volume action. The framework of a good IPO base is simple. The decline from peak to low usually doesn't top 20%, but the most volatile markets have produced declines of up to 50%. The length is often less than five weeks and can be as short as seven days. These two factors alone make IPO bases wayward cousins compared with proper bases, such as the cup with handle and flat base, which need at least five to seven weeks of work. In an IPO base, the pattern typically starts within 25 days of the stock's first day of trading. Know the important similarities with regular bases. For example, the buy point is drawn by taking the prior high and adding 10 cents. The price gain on the breakout should be strong. There are ways to evaluate these blind spots, however. Important factors include seeing a shallow correction within the base during normal market conditions, a large increase in price and a close near session highs on the breakout day, and heavy volume on the breakout day and week. Also, the stock should generally form the base above its IPO price. Example - ServiceNow (NOW) The business software company, went public in June 2012, at 18 a share and has built its primary base during the period from the initial offering to April 2013 when the stock developed its first perfect buy point.
Education
by JS_TechTrading
Can $MNTK continue to lead the Utilities sector?Notes: * Recent IPO with steady up trend * Not the best earnings in the recent quarters * Basing for the past ~3 months * While basing it bounced off of its IPO highs around the 13.8 area * Recently breaking and holding above a pivot area between 16.65 and 16.9 * Daily and weekly volume seems to be indicating buyers coming in and the UD ratio seems to be indicating the same Technicals: Sector: Utilities - Utilities - Diversified Relative Strength vs. Sector: 10.61 Relative Strength vs. SP500: 35.4 U/D Ratio: 0.96 Base Depth: 46.96% Distance from breakout buy point: -15.4% Volume 31.76% above its 15 day avg. Trade Idea: * You can enter now as the price is holding the 16.9 area as support * If you're looking for a better entry you can wait to see if it retests the 16.9 area again.
NASDAQ:MNTKLong
by HaseebKhan_90