Why Bitcoin's Halving Won't Save You if the Economy Goes Down As we navigate through an increasingly volatile economic landscape, similarities between the current market behavior and the period preceding the COVID-19 market crash have begun to surface, particularly concerning Bitcoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD ). This analysis delves into these parallels and discusses why the upcoming Bitcoin halving might not be the safety net investors hope for if a major economic downturn occurs.
Historical Insights: The 2020 Pre-Halving Crash
Back in early 2020, just before Bitcoin's much-anticipated halving, the cryptocurrency market experienced one of its most drastic crashes. Bitcoin's value plummeted by 41% in a single day, underscoring the rapid sentiment shift among investors from greed to fear. Notably, our Trend Model had signaled an exit from the market two weeks prior to this crash, prompted not by foreknowledge of the pandemic but by bearish behaviour on Bitcoin.
At the time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at a mere 39 out of 100, highlighting a market driven by fear— suggesting an oversold market.
Current Market Conditions and Sentiment
Fast forward to today, the echoes of the past resonate as the same indices and models show similar ominous signs. With geopolitical tensions escalating and the risk of major conflicts looming, our Trend Model recently signalled another exit.
Interestingly, the current market sentiment, with a Fear and Greed Index score of 72, indicates a stark contrast: traders remain optimistic despite the negative price trends—a risky disconnect that could precede significant market corrections.
Major market influencers continue to advocate bullish perspectives, with some viewing market dips as buying opportunities and others speculating about market manipulations linked to new ETF launches in Hong Kong. The general consensus among these influencers is that the impending halving will bolster Bitcoin prices. However, a closer look at historical data and market behavior suggests otherwise.
The Halving: A Misunderstood Phenomenon
The halving certainly impacts Bitcoin by reducing the reward for mining new blocks, theoretically increasing scarcity. However, the effect is neither immediate nor strong enough to counteract significant market downturns. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin prices didn’t soar; instead, they entered a prolonged period of stagnation lasting 72 days.
This historical precedent illustrates that halving does not inherently create upward price pressure but rather contributes to a slow, often muted, impact on the market.
Technical Analysis and Future Predictions
Applying Fibonacci Retracement to the current weekly Bitcoin charts suggests potential price corrections with levels possibly dipping between $38,000 and $45,000. Further analysis through the Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model indicates that Bitcoin is currently overbought. A retracement to $45,000 would align with this model’s estimation of Bitcoin's fair value.
Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty with Data
While the hope for a market recovery persists, relying on the halving to safeguard Bitcoin investments in a turbulent economy is misguided. Our historical data and trend analysis underline the importance of cautious and informed trading strategies. Just as our model successfully predicted exits before major market crashes, including the COVID-19 downturn, Luna crash, and FTX collapse, it continues to guide us through these uncertain times.
Investors would do well to remember that external factors such as geopolitical developments or economic crises can dwarf the effects of the halving, leading to sharp price declines. In this context, understanding and respecting the data’s warning signs is crucial for navigating the markets effectively, ensuring that decisions are based on insight rather than optimism.
Iran
XAUUSD - Political Tension Cool down
Fundamental
Gold make a big drop on Monday, due to the cool down of political tension in Gaza and Ukraine.
Technical
Gold is approaching the 2300 level. This is psychological round number level. Buyer will enter at this level .
Below is SMA 200 , lie at the 2250 level. If support level 2300 broken, this level will be test.
DAX bears lose control following Israel's retaliationThe DAX dropped following the news that Israel retaliated for Iran's attack over the weekend. However, the bears seem to have lost control, with the hourly charge at a crossroads.
The longer-term path shows a series of lower peaks followed by lower troughs. This suggests that the current up-leg may be an exploitable rally in the downtrend.
The DAX hourly chart is showing signs of support. However, the daily chart is still under pressure.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Bitcoin Halving PregameWhat are our thoughts on Bitcoin and the overall market/market sentiment? I have too many words right now for the markets. So many things converging as far as the dollar, rates, equities, and crypto.
This chart is gorgeous and I love seeing the false breakdown over the Iran/Israel headlines. The bullish divergence on the RSI is also lovely.
The SPY has finally filled a CME gap back from February. I think we will see a bottom begin to form from here, and whether or not this is the end of the downtrend remains to be seen. I think the probabilities of one more leg down are decent, but same with this being the end of the bear.
PS: Elon Musk just tweeted a photo of a missile heading straight up.. and I'm not so sure it had anything to do with war ;)
Gold technical analysis amid Iran-Israel uncertainty Gold hovers around the $2,370, with trading range relatively narrow as investors closely monitor updates on the Iran-Israel conflict.
Israel's stance on retaliating against Iran revolves not around whether but when and how to strike back. Bezalel Smotrich, Israel's Finance Minister, advocates for a response that would impose a "disproportionate toll" on Iran, aiming to "shake Tehran" and deter future attacks. While any retaliation risks escalating the situation towards a broader conflict in the Middle East and a more profound global crisis, there's a lingering hope that Iran's reluctance for an all-out war, evidenced by their quick de-escalation following their recent attack, might mitigate the risk.
Gold demonstrates resilience despite robust economic data from the US, suggesting that the current bull market isn't solely influenced by conventional macroeconomic factors.
On the XAU/USD chart, a downward movement might necessitate testing the previous all-time high of $2,300 to consider a substantial reversal. However, the broader bullish sentiment could appear to persist, supported by the 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) sliding below 50 and the Momentum indicator showing a downward trend above its midpoint.
The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) possibly maintains a firmly bullish trajectory at approximately $2,281, sitting comfortably above the also bullish 100 SMA by roughly $200.
⭐️ XAU/USD - WAR's effect on the $GOLD Price (IMPORTANT) Weekly Gold Market Analysis
Upon examining the gold chart on a weekly basis, it was observed that last Friday marked a significant surge in gold prices. This increase was triggered by the announcement of a potential Iranian attack on Israel, propelling the price to $2431.
Price Fluctuations and Corrections
However, the ascent was short-lived, and the price underwent a sharp decline. In less than four hours, gold experienced a correction exceeding 1000 pips, eventually settling at $2344 by the market’s close.
Market Reactions to Geopolitical Events
The anticipated attack materialized on Sunday morning, leading to speculations of a price hike when the market reopened. As predicted, Monday saw gold’s value climb from $2344 to $2372. Despite this, the growth was modest, largely because the market had already factored in the news to a considerable degree on Thursday, resulting in diminished tensions.
The Lingering Threat of Conflict
Investors are advised to exercise caution as the specter of war continues to loom over the market. The coming days may witness escalating tensions, potentially driving gold prices higher.
Technical Outlook and Price Projections
It is crucial to monitor the $2404 threshold. Should the price fail to breach this level and instead retreat towards the $2200 channel, with the weekly candle closing within this range, there could be a further downturn in gold prices.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Bullish Oil Options Traded at Record Pace Before Iran AttackOil investors piled into the options market days before Iran launched its attack on Israel and traded a record amount of contracts that profit from higher prices. Just over 1 million calls on the global Brent crude benchmark traded last week, surpassing a previous record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The volumes were focused on contracts at $95 and above $100, with bullish calls trading at hefty premiums to bearish puts in recent weeks.
Traders have been flocking to the oil options market in order to hedge themselves against the risk of prices moving higher if the conflict between Israel and Iran widens further. Options are often used to protect against major geopolitical risks as they allow a cheaper way of profiting from a spike in prices.
Many of the bets won’t have profited yet given that crude prices and market volatility retreated when the market opened early on Monday, with the benchmark now changing hands below $90. However, as tensions in the region remain high such hedges are likely to remain in place over the coming weeks.
Calls at $100 and $110 are the most held options contracts over the next 12 months for Brent, according to ICE Futures Europe data compiled by Bloomberg. On Thursday alone, about 29 million barrels of new call option contracts were opened on the nearest trading month.
Gold & oil volatility grows amid Middle East escalationFinancial markets are bracing for the uncertainty surrounding Iran's recent strike on Israel and the potential for retaliatory measures.
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, remarked that the current situation may lead to elevated gold and oil prices, alongside lower US Treasury yields and stocks compared to what would have been expected otherwise.
In the previous week, investors flocked to gold, driving it to reach new record highs. Will we see more records hit this week? Early trading this Monday Asian session has shown a gap upwards.
Since April 1st, the energy market has been on edge regarding a potential Iran-Israel conflict, hinting at the likelihood of highly volatile oil trading in the upcoming week. Additionally, concerns arise over signs of Iran's inclination towards a soft blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could result in supply chain disruptions and increased oil prices.
The escalating tensions may also further prompt the Federal Reserve to exercise caution in interest rate cuts, as higher oil prices could steer inflation away from the Fed's target. On Friday, the U.S. dollar index surged to its highest level since November, while the euro dipped to a five-month low against the dollar following indications from the European Central Bank of potential interest rate cuts. This broad strengthening of the dollar also drove the yen to a fresh 34-year low as investors monitored for potential intervention by Japanese monetary authorities to stabilize the currency.
📈Bitcoin: Geopolitical Tensions Impact Market Dynamics🚨🔍Today, we're focusing on Bitcoin, which has formed a range box in the 4-hour timeframe between 63054 and 73305. Following the uptrend from 40k, this consolidation phase is a logical pause, potentially leading to a correction in the weekly timeframe, especially considering the imminent Halving event, which may precede a bullish rally.
⚡️In range-bound markets, whales often execute buy or sell orders within these ranges. We shouldn't play into the hands of these whales; therefore, it's better to be patient and wait for a breakout above 73305 for a long position, or wait for the candle to close below 63054 for a short position.
📊The volume of red candles is significantly high, partly due to the sharp decline we witnessed last night following Iran's attack on Israeli soil, causing a 20-40% decline in most altcoins. However, Bitcoin found support at 63054, preventing further decline.
💥The RSI indicator dipped into oversold territory and bounced back, currently oscillating near the 30 mark. A move into oversold territory coupled with candlestick confirmation could trigger another sharp decline, potentially coinciding with news of further conflict between Iran and Israel.
⚡️The POC (Point of Control) in the fixed range volume profile was lost last night, with attention now focused on 63054. If this level is breached, Bitcoin could test the 52k range.
📝Finally, it's essential to note that at the onset of a conflict, markets initially experience a downturn as governments aim to increase liquidity. However, Bitcoin tends to appreciate afterward, as individuals in conflict-stricken countries seek to move their assets abroad, making Bitcoin the preferred choice. This could mark the beginning of the 2024 bull run.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
A Speed Bump or a Sign of Things to Come?The recent dip in the crypto market, triggered by escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, serves as a stark reminder of the market's volatility. Bitcoin prices plummeted to GETTEX:59K before a swift recovery, leaving many investors wondering: was this a blip on the radar or a harbinger of things to come?
**The Iran-Israel Factor:**
Geopolitical tensions have historically impacted traditional markets, and crypto appears increasingly susceptible as well. The news of a potential war undoubtedly spooked investors, leading to a sell-off. However, the market's swift bounce back suggests that the long-term outlook might remain bullish.
**Bull Run on Hold?**
The upcoming Bitcoin halving, scheduled for sometime in 2024, is a highly anticipated event that often precedes bull runs. While the recent crash might cause a temporary setback, historical data suggests that these halvings often lead to price increases due to a reduced supply of new Bitcoins.
**Full-Fledged War? A Bearish Threat?**
A full-blown war would undoubtedly have a significant negative impact on global markets, including crypto. Increased risk aversion and economic uncertainty could trigger a prolonged bear market. It's important to monitor the situation closely and adjust your strategy accordingly.
**The Power of Diversification:**
Regardless of the bull or bear market predictions, diversification remains a crucial strategy. Spreading your investments across various cryptocurrencies and asset classes can help mitigate risk.
**The Final Word: It's All Speculation**
The future of the crypto market, especially in light of geopolitical events, is inherently uncertain. While a bull run is still possible after the halving, external factors can always play a role.
Here's where **you** come in! Join the discussion in the comments below!** Share your thoughts:
* Do you think the recent crash is a sign of a larger correction?
* How will a potential full-fledged war impact the crypto market?
* What strategies are you using to navigate the current market climate?
**By fostering a community of informed investors, we can all navigate the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.**
**Disclaimer:** This is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Why both Gold & U.S. Dollar Index are rising ? (IMPORTANT)The Intricate Dance of Gold and the U.S. Dollar
The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Gold prices is a fascinating study in economics. Typically, these two have a reverse correlation. The reason for this inverse relationship is that gold is priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies. This can decrease demand for gold and subsequently lower its price.
However, this correlation is not set in stone. There are times when both the DXY and gold prices can increase simultaneously. This can occur due to a variety of factors such as geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty, or changes in monetary policy.
For instance, from early 2022 to the beginning of 2024, the correlation between gold and the DXY has seen periods of both synchronicity and divergence. This indicates that other factors are influencing gold prices.
Currently, despite the rising DXY, gold prices are also on an upward trend. This could be attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amidst economic or geopolitical uncertainty. This increases the demand for gold, driving up its price even as the dollar strengthens. Additionally, expectations of changes in monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts, can also affect gold prices.
In conclusion, while the DXY and gold prices often move in opposite directions, there are times when they dance to the same tune. This intricate dance is influenced by a myriad of factors, making the relationship between the DXY and gold prices a complex and intriguing aspect of global economics.
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande
On Wednesday, WTI crude futures dropped below $77 per barrel, undoing a 1.4% increase from the prior session, all while the U.S. readies itself to address a lethal attack on its troops in the Middle East.
Perhaps traders are concerned more about the liquidation of China Evergrande, raising worries about the overall Chinese economy. There is fear that this uncertainty in China could lead to a decrease in demand for crude oil.
However, there is a question of whether traders might be underestimating the potential for U.S. responses to the lethal attacks to escalate tensions or lead to a conflict with Iran.
Despite President Biden expressing a desire to avoid a wider war in the Middle East, there are concerns about the unpredictable outcomes of such military actions.
The Guardian predicts dire consequences if there is direct American military retaliation against Iran. This could prolong the Gaza conflict, trigger a Hezbollah attack on Israel, escalate conflicts in Iraq and Syria, and destabilize friendly regimes in Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf. Additionally, such actions could inadvertently assist China in pursuing its anti-democratic geopolitical ambitions and provide justification for Russia's aggression in Ukraine.
advances to near $2,055 as US yields declineHere is what you need to know on Monday, January 15:
• Gold price gains ground on risk-averse sentiment due to the Red Sea situation.
Israel-Gaza conflict intensified after Houthi attacked a US Navy vessel.
• US Treasury yields contribute to downward pressure on the US Dollar.
Barclays revision of the Fed rate cut has changed market sentiment.
Gold prices continue to advance for the third consecutive day on Monday, trading higher and reaching around $2,055 per troy ounce during the Asian session. The upward movement in the price of the yellow metal is attributed to the risk-averse due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with the speculation regarding potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March.
The concerns over the escalation of the Israel-Gaza conflict have intensified, especially after Iran-led Houthis fired an anti-ship cruise missile at the USS Laboon in the Red Sea on Monday. This development has contributed to increased demand for gold prices, a traditional safe-haven asset during times of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Market participants remain vigilant for potential impacts on shipments in the Strait of Hormuz while closely monitoring Iran's response to recent geopolitical developments.
The US Dollar (USD) hovers around 102.40 with a negative bias, influenced by the decline in US Treasury yields, possibly triggered by the softer Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the United States (US). The DXY has trimmed its intraday gains as a result of the drop in US Treasury yields. The 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons trade lower at 4.14% and 3.94%, respectively, at the moment.
Additionally, Barclays revised its forecast on Friday for the first Federal Reserve rate cut, moving it to March from June. This change in outlook has shifted market sentiment towards expectations of an easing monetary policy by the Fed, putting downward pressure on the Greenback. In a note released on Friday, analysts from Barclays expressed their expectation for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points at the March meeting.
$UVXY $120+ BUY CALLSUVXY is a volatility factor in the market. As political tensions rise high in the world, we are due for another market correction and overall world market corrections. USA of course is protecting its interest in the Middle East and as we can see, Israel-Palestine conflict is only getting started. This is a multi-decade war between Israel and Arab/Muslim states.
However, this war is not going to be similar to previous, this will be final and deciding war in that region, after which, nothing will be left there and geographical borders will change. This is a political game because of all the resources hidden, particularly Oil, in the Middle East. I believe this time we will see a use of nuclear weapons.
There will be de-stabilization in that region and rest of the world. UVXY will spike due to this. I'm not sure about my timing, but I see these tensions rising very high and markets staying volatile within near future.
Please check out my other predictions as they are fairly accurate, I don't post a lot, but I think this time I might be right.
Gold BUY Tensions RiseDear Ziilllaatrades,
We'd like to discuss a potential chain of events where an invasion of Israel into Palestine could trigger Iran's involvement in the conflict, causing a rise in gold prices. Here's how this chain of events might unfold:
1. Invasion of Israel into Palestine:
If Israel were to launch a large-scale military invasion into Palestinian territories, it would likely draw significant international attention and condemnation.
This action would intensify tensions in the region and lead to a surge in violence, displacement of civilians, and potential casualties.
2. Iran's Involvement:
Iran has been a long-standing supporter of Palestinian causes, particularly through its support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
If Israel's actions are perceived as a significant threat to Palestinian territories and civilians, Iran may feel compelled to intervene in the conflict to protect its interests and regional influence.
Iran could provide financial, military, and logistical support to Palestinian factions, escalating the conflict and potentially involving Iranian military forces.
3. Escalation of Regional Tensions:
The involvement of Iran in the conflict would escalate regional tensions and may lead to the activation of regional alliances and rivalries.
Israel's allies, including the United States, may respond with increased military and diplomatic support.
This could lead to a broader regional conflict, potentially involving other countries in the Middle East.
4. Market Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand:
Geopolitical instability and conflict in the Middle East tend to increase market uncertainty and risk aversion.
Investors often turn to safe-haven assets like gold during times of geopolitical turmoil, as gold is traditionally seen as a store of value and a hedge against economic instability.
The rising tensions in the Middle East, including the involvement of Iran, could lead to increased demand for gold, driving up its prices.
5. Impact on Gold Prices:
As investors seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold, increased demand could cause gold prices to rise.
The extent of the price increase would depend on the severity of the conflict, the duration of the crisis, and the global response to the situation.
Gold prices can also be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, currency movements, and supply and demand dynamics.
It's important to note that this scenario is hypothetical, and the actual outcome of any such conflict and its impact on gold prices would depend on a wide range of complex and dynamic factors. Geopolitical events can indeed influence commodity prices, including gold, but predicting the extent of that impact is challenging.
Feel free to ask any questions,
Greetings,
Ziilllaatrades