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Chasing Oil Spikes? How Geopolitics Can Wreck SetupsOil prices surged over 12% in Asia on Middle East headlines, sparking a surge of volatility across safe-haven currencies and stock market futures during thin trade. It felt like a good time to provide food for thought to newer traders looking to chase these moves, highlight the mockery geopolitics can make of technical analysis with recent examples, and provide a filter for when the waters may be safer to reenter. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
Iran tensions rise: a setup brewing for gold and oil Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold. A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400. At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward $120 if Israel takes military action against Iran. “I don’t want to say it’s imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen,” President Trump said during a White House event. Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints have potentially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September, with a second cut possibly following before year-end.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
4
USDCAD weekly analysis: Jun 1, 2025 – Jun 7, 2025Most important news and situations are for this pair. 1st, BOC rate decision week! 2nd, Iran-US negotiations that could make a real difference to oil markets. 3rd, The relatively strong long-term bullish trendline. ******************************************************************* The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones. Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray. You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC. SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings. TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels. ******************************************************************* Role of different zones: GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them. RED: Just Short trades allowed on them. BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them. WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
Long
by AliSignals
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) : H4 / D1 : Big Long !!!Hello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on Gold? After a strong upward move, gold entered a corrective phase upon reaching the $3500 resistance zone. This correction could offer a buy-the-dip opportunity, with potential for a move back toward the recent highs. XAUUSD Market price : 3240 Buy limit : 3140 - 3120 Tp1 : 3240 Tp2 : 3340 Tp3 : 3500 Tp4 : 3750 Sl : 3030 ( 100 pip ) Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by khanbours
40
2 more reasons to buy gold? Israel is sending a delegation to Washington for strategic talks on Iran, while Trump has reportedly given Tehran a two-month deadline for a nuclear deal—so far, Iran isn’t engaging. So, the question is: Are we headed towards military conflict or a significant wave of sanctions? Meanwhile, protests erupted after Erdoğan’s main rival was arrested, triggering a sharp selloff in Turkish markets. The lira hit record lows, forcing the central bank to intervene with nearly $10 billion in currency sales. Turkey’s inflation remains elevated at 39%, with interest rates at 42.5%. Continued lira weakness could push inflation higher, forcing further rate hikes and adding to the country’s economic instability.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Treasury Secretary Bessent: Make Iran broke again Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Economic Club of New York, said the U.S. is enforcing sanctions on Iran for “immediate maximum impact,” warning that Iranians should move their money out of the rial. The goal is to cut Iran’s oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day to near zero. His comments came as oil prices fell to multiyear lows on Wednesday, driven by concerns that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could slow economic growth and weaken crude demand. Following Bessent’s remarks, both U.S. crude and Brent prices turned positive, with JP Morgan analysts noting that a decline in Iranian supply is currently the only bullish factor for oil prices. Bessent also signaled that the administration is prepared to impose full-scale sanctions on Russian energy if it helps lead to a ceasefire in Ukraine. This is a welcome shift from the Trump administration, who so far has only been pressuring the victim of the war rather than the perpetrator.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Will Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Redefine Global Energy Markets?In a world where geopolitical tensions and energy markets dance an intricate waltz, the latest developments surrounding Iran's nuclear program have emerged as a pivotal factor in global oil dynamics. The Biden administration's deliberation of military options against Iranian atomic facilities has introduced a new variable into the complex equation of international energy markets, forcing investors and analysts to reassess their traditional market models. The strategic significance of the Middle East's oil infrastructure, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, hangs in delicate balance as diplomatic chess moves unfold. With approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply flowing through this crucial chokepoint, the stakes extend far beyond regional politics, touching every corner of the global economy. Market participants have begun incorporating these heightened risks into their pricing models, reflecting a new reality where geopolitical considerations carry as much weight as traditional supply and demand metrics. The energy sector stands at a crossroads where strategic petroleum reserves, investment strategies, and risk management protocols face unprecedented challenges. Portfolio managers and energy traders must navigate this complex landscape while balancing short-term volatility against long-term strategic positioning. As the situation continues to evolve, the global oil market serves as a mirror reflecting the broader implications of international security dynamics, challenging conventional wisdom about energy market fundamentals and forcing a reevaluation of traditional risk assessment models.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by UDIS_View
XAUUSD | Market outlookGold Reserve Diversification: At the LBMA conference, central bank representatives shared that gold purchases are driven by financial and strategic goals. US Election Impact: Uncertainty over the upcoming presidential elections, with Trump and Harris closely tied in polls, is prompting banks to hedge risks. Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East are also boosting gold, with Israel expressing readiness to target Iran's military infrastructure. Price Trends: Long-term trend: Upward, aiming to break the historical high of 2685.00 . Potential targets: 2750.00 and 2810.00 if consolidation succeeds. Support and Correction: If the price drops to 2602.00 , long positions toward 2685.00 are favourable. A breakout below 2602.00 could trigger a correction targeting 2546.00 and 2471.00 . Medium-term trend: Correction: Last week’s correction did not reach key support at 2575.61–2564.61 . If a reversal occurs, the price could rise to 2685.61 and potentially 2712.70–2701.70 . Correction Scenario: If another correction develops, the price may revisit 2575.61–2564.61 , followed by growth toward 2625.00 and 2685.00 .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DynamicCapital-FX
Looking For Next Market Top AgainLooking for next top Submillennium 1 Grand Supercycle 5 - green Supercycle 1 Cycle 5 - orange Primary 5 - blue Intermediate 5 - pink Minor 5 - yellow Minute 5 - green I will try to find the next top off simply modified wave theory. First we need to set the baseline. I prefer the chart SPX500USD as it encompasses 23 hour trading during the week and can capture movement not always distinguishable in the SP:SPX chart. My first step is always to identify the location of wave 3 (if it exists). I do this by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder v2 in conjunction with my RSI triple confirm indicator and a simple RSI 9. My wave 3 indicator will have a painted background at potential wave 3 locations, blue background for bearish reversals and pink for bullish reversals. My triple confirm RSI should signal in conjunction with the actual wave 3 point, red for bearish reversals and green for bullish reversals. My wave 3 indicator tends to spot wave 3 of 3 by displaying a gap between painted backgrounds. These indicators signal upon market close and are not considered finalized signals until the next bar begins. My baseline is in the 2 month chart. I have worked through the historical SPX chart and believe we are in the fifth and final wave (Grand Supercycle 5) of a larger structure (Sub Millennium 1) that began in the 1800s. This specific wave 5 began at the market bottom in 2009, and we are only in the first (Supercycle 1) of five waves to the upside. I do not expect a catastrophic market top for many decades to come. This chart picks up around 2004 to the current time. We are likely in Cycle wave 5 which began at the market low in October 2022. I have determined Cycle wave 3 to have ended at the peak at the beginning of 2022 based on the wave 3 indicator and RSI agreeing on a reversal point. In the moment, I would not have agreed the market topped in January 2022 as the indicators were still signaling. It is only on the preceding bar not producing a signal that an event is confirmed. Next I will determine common wave extensions off (Fibonacci levels) of Cycle wave 3's movement which began at the low in January 2016 at 1,806.25 and ended at 4,820.20 in January 2022. Wave 3 moved 3,013.95 points. Cycle wave 5 could move 123.6% to 138.2% of Wave 3's movement. These means a potential endpoint is between 5,531.49-5,971.53. This will be the orange outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Next I will try to identify a current Primary wave 3 inside of Cycle wave 5. My indicators point to Primary wave 3 ending around the mid-July 2024 on the 2-day chart based on the gap in the wave 3 indicators. There is not an RSI 3 signal in the 2-day chart for Primary wave 3, but there was one for Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 3 around February 12, 2024. We can attempt to confirm this by seeing where the end of Intermediate wave 5's movement extended too. If Intermediate wave 3 began January 5, 2024 and ended March 29, 2024, Intermediate wave 5 topped close to 161.8% of Intermediate wave 3's movement as seen below: Based on this assumption, Primary wave 3 was likely over by mid-July 2024. The next Fibonacci wave extension levels for Cycle wave 5 could see this wave end between 108-123.6% of Primary wave 3's movement. This places a potential top between 5,806.48-6,052.34. This will be the light blue outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. We will next move inside of Primary wave 5 which possibly began at the low from the beginning of August 2024. In looking for Intermediate wave 3 inside of Primary wave 5, the indicators point to Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 occurring on September 19, 2024 and the Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 occurring on September 13. If we find the Intermediate wave 5 extension from this Intermediate wave 3, a potential top sits between 5,816.26-5,936.51. This will be the pink outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Next we try to identify where we are in Intermediate wave 5. The 2-hour chart here indicates a possible Minor wave 3 occurring on October 9, 2024. A possible Minor wave 5 extension from here is a top between 5,825.38-5,868.50. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. We can attempt to go a final level deeper inside of Minor wave 5. We currently have Minute wave 3 indications based on the high from earlier today at 5826.90. If this is the end of Minute wave 3, Minute 5 could top between 5,834.16-5,857.61. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Based on a this wave set being over a small timeframe, this top could happen before next Tuesday. This is zone of interest for a near-term top. This is purely theoretical, but Israel will likely strike at Iran soon. Iran has claimed they would respond quickly, but the prior instances saw long delays in the response. If Iran has an immediate response, a full on conflict would be underway in the Middle East. Not all wars are bad, but this one would likely impact oil and depending on the duration likely impact economies around the world. A contained conflict between a few nations likely would not spiral into a larger conflict, however, strong alliances on other side could turn this into a much greater event, closer to a world war situation. As drastic as this is, it could explain a potential near-term top. If conflict does not break out, we will likely see a short-term market top before continued movement higher and higher. Time will tell. Enjoy!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
4
Crude Oil Technical Analysis - October OutlookCrude oil is showing a notable recovery from its recent lows, currently trading around the $72 mark. A few key observations based on the price action and indicators: Price Pattern and Trend: The chart shows a classic descending wedge pattern, which signals a potential bullish reversal. The breakout from the wedge is accompanied by a price surge above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a short-term trend change. Key Support Levels: Immediate Support : Around $70.64, marked by the breakout level. Strong Support : At $68.23, where significant buying interest has been observed in the past, reinforced by a bullish consolidation zone. Resistance Levels: First Resistance: $72.11, which has been tested, with potential room for the price to move higher if momentum sustains. Critical Resistance : $77.23, which coincides with a strong historical supply zone. A close above this level would signal further bullish momentum . Volume Profile Insight: A noticeable shift in the volume profile near the $70 mark suggests accumulation by institutional investors, hinting that buyers are stepping in to defend this level. RSI Indicator : The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back from oversold levels and is now showing early signs of positive divergence, supporting the case for an upward move. Geopolitical Factors: With rising tensions in the Middle East, as highlighted in the annotation, traders and investors are pricing in potential supply disruptions, contributing to the recent spike in oil prices. Conclusion: Oil prices may continue to rise in the short term, with $72.11 being a key level to watch. If sustained above this, the next target would be $77.23. However, if prices fall back below $70, we could see a retest of support at $68.23. Given the geopolitical uncertainty, traders should remain cautious of potential volatility.
TVC:USOILLong
by AngshumanSaikia
$20 Spike if Israel Hits Iran’s Oil? The Israeli military warned that its response to Iran’s missile attack would be “serious and significant,” as Goldman Sachs forecasted that oil prices could surge by $20 per barrel if Iranian production is disrupted. Daan Struyven, Goldman’s co-head of global commodities research, stated on Friday that a "sustained drop of 1 million barrels per day" in Iranian output could lead to a peak increase of $20 per barrel next year, assuming OPEC+ does not immediately boost production, which typically requires time to implement. However, if key OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE step in to offset some of the supply loss, the price impact could be more moderate—around $10 per barrel, Struyven added. Goldman did not offer a specific price forecast if Israel were to target Iran's nuclear facilities, a scenario raised after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump suggested such a strike was appropriate to recent missile activity from Tehran.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Will geopolitical tension support oil prices? Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply. Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport. At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets. USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel. If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel. On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DynamicCapital-FX