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Investors doubt and China operates at half capacityBefore investors could relax and believe that the worst was over, a new portion of reasons for concern arrived. It is about spreading the epidemic outside of China. Recall that almost 99% of everything related to COVID-19 took place in China. And investors at some point decided that everything that happens in China remains in China. Yesterday forced some to reconsider their position. The number of people infected in South Korea rose sharply (it jumped from 32 to 82 in a day, but more importantly, most of the newly diagnosed cases were parishioners of one church, where about 1,000 people were present at the time of infection, that is, we can expect a further increase in the number infected) and Japan (more than twice as many as 84 people jumped in a week), the first deaths appeared in Japan and Iran. All this makes us think about the spread of the epidemic around the world with all that it implies. By the way, about the resulting. China very clearly demonstrates what price has to be paid. Goldman Sachs experts analyzed data on a number of direct and indirect indicators, in particular, statistics on finished goods production, demand for steel and its reserves, coal consumption and real estate sales in China, and a number of other indicators, and concluded that economic activity in China does not exceed 50% of the average indicators of past years. That is, as we warned, it is too early to relax, the events are still in the process of development, and their consequences will become clear only after some time. Against this background, gold traditionally feels comfortable, which continues to stubbornly move towards the goal that we voiced a few weeks ago (1800 mark). But the yen’s problems continue and there are active rumors in the market that the currency is losing the status of an asset-refuge. Despite the current problems of the yen and the high likelihood of its further decline, sales of the USDJPY pair above 112 look too tempting to not try to catch a u-turn with small stops. Moreover, today is Friday - potentially the day of profit-taking. And the yen has something to fix. Considering how depressing statistics have recently been from the Eurozone, one can expect another batch of weak data from Europe and a new round of euro sales. So you can even sell the EURUSD pair without waiting for the data. In addition to the euro, today we will sell oil, a pair of USDJPY (above 112), buy GBPUSD with small stops, and also look for opportunities for buying gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx
BTC more signs of a bull run regardless of Iran US conflictSince BTC is already digital gold and adaption is just the next step. Considering that BTC was pumping along with January effect and the conflict between US and Iran. Let's consider that I was bearish already during this phase of consolidation from January 8-13 where Iran and US expressed concern to end conflict to not escalate a war. BTC then consolidated and was bound for correction on my analysis. But I was proven wrong and for me BTC pumping was unlikely from here. But it did...So in conclcusion if BTC is pumping even out of the Iran and US conflict which is already fading away...then we can consider this a sign of a bull run. Let's still see
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Limitless-Investor
Price Action Says Short, But War Can Say BullGold is extremely overbought on both the monthly and the weekly. So this should still ride overall as a short. The conflict with Iran can still greatly affect the USD, so whatever happens, this week news-wise can still make it bullish against price action. But technical analysis still screaming this is a big big short. Let's see. BEAR TPS: • 1550.55 • 1537.30 • 1527.05 • 1515.56 • 1503.63 • 1489.61 BULL TPS: • 1571.51 • 1584.37 • 1595.62 • 1610.72
FX:XAUUSD
by NikaJourney
2
About optimism, faith, and facts, as well as trading on the newsOptimism and belief in a bright future are generally quite positive things, but you should not abuse them, because this is fraught with a separation from reality. What we observed in the last couple of days in the financial markets, in our opinion, was that separation from reality. Asset prices are as if there were no killing of Suleimani, mutual threats from the United States and Iran, Iran’s missile attacks on US military bases. All at once forgot about the billionth injection of the Fed in the Fed market, the trade wars and the slowdown of the global economy. By the way, the World Bank just a few days ago lowered its forecast for world economic growth in 2020 from 2.7% to 2.5%. But this is part of reality, from which there is no escape. Failure to think about these things does not mean that they cease to exist. That’s why we will continue to sail today against this stream of optimism and will buy gold and the Japanese yen, as well as sell the dollar. In general, the dollar today can be a very defining day. The release of statistics on the US labor market is always an occasion for a sharp increase in volatility. Given the importance of the data, our position on the NFP and the reaction of the dollar will be presented in a separate review. In general, the best option for trading today, in our opinion, is trading on the news. That is, do not try to guess what data will be released and how the dollar will react to it, but act on the fact. And there is just a great candidate for the deal - we are talking about a pair of USD/CAD. The fact is that today not only statistics on the US labor market but also on the Canadian labor market will be released. That is, a couple can undergo either a double positive (as it was a month ago) or a double negative. In any of these cases, the movement will be quite strong and unidirectional. So we offer the next trading plan for today. 1-2 minutes before the release of data in the USD/CAD pair, we place orders like BUY STOP and SELL STOP at 20 points from the current price at that time. And then we just wait for the news. If the option “bad data for the USA/good for Canada” is triggered, pick up SELL STOP. If the game has the option “good US data/bad Canada data”, BUY STOP will work. In both of these cases, it is recommended to hold the position until the end of the day. If the data come out less clear and the situation is unclear - remove orders.
by Trade24Fx
Setting up the trap. Carefully! Explosives!This post is a confirmations aggregator for the main idea in questioning: /////////////////////////// I've looked at the indicators and saw... sea calm on 30m...(see the above chart, no confirmations yet) Overbought on 4h: Overbought on daily: ///////////////////////////// As of yet - a few not critical confirmations of the IMMINENT CORRECTION have just appeared(today) on daily and 4h. Now waiting for the 30m to catch up))) 12 hours of the deep calm should result in a wide 8h-50hours long imminent horizontal or deep correction 2.4-8 figures down. But still the sea is calm, the volume is non-existent. ///////////////////////////// Consider the above stated together with the root ideas in your analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by orbborisson
1
Boeing forming Multiple Head and ShouldersWeekly Chart : The time will tell, but meanwhile the chart tells us that the odds pointing to huge Reversal Pattern. Multiple Head and Shoulders contains several shoulders, in our case 3 from each side. Note the huge volume spike in the Head. Note the inner Neckline and the Outer Neckline. Short trades will be taken when the price will break down the outer line by a range that equal to 3% from the price at the moment. If the breakout will carry Peakup in volume, it is more safe to wait for retest on the lines and then take the trade. The first Target is 250. Good Luck!
NYSE:BAShort
by Ido_Havazelet
Missiles attack, plane crash, earthquake and ADP dataYesterday was oversaturated and accordingly super volatile. Although it is worth noting that the strength of the counter-movements significantly exceeded our expectations. On days like yesterday, traders either make a fortune or (which happens much more often) lose their deposits. Often the reason for the loss of the deposit is excessive greed on the one hand and disbelief in their own positions on the other. For us, yesterday’s events mean that even better entry points have appeared on the market. And that means opportunities for even greater earnings. But first things first. Yesterday began with news of Iran’s missile attacks on US military bases in Iraq. Gold and oil on such news naturally rushed up. The markets were preparing for an immediate US response: Trump's 52 goals - that’s all. But no action followed. Trump tweeted “keep calm,” and then also made a public statement in which he made it clear that the United States was not going to further escalate the conflict, at least militarily. As a result, investors rushed to lock profits. True, they were obviously carried away, since the fixation clearly turned into the opening of counter-positions. As a result, gold after the 1610 test fell to the key support area of 1550. Although it looked strange, it was only a great opportunity to buy cheaper. Actually, we wrote about this in our review yesterday. That is, gold could theoretically reach 1550 and it reached. Yes, it looked almost unbelievable, but in terms of the logic of key levels, it was generally logical. So, we repeat, while gold is above 1550 - only purchases, only forward. In general, most of the news yesterday had Iranian roots. The crash with many casualties on take-off from Tehran immediately after attacks on US military bases unwittingly suggests that a passenger plane could become a victim of either an Iranian air defense or a terrorist attack. Too converge events in time and place. Add to this a rather strong earthquake in same Iran, and even near the nuclear power plant, and we get such a jackpot. In general, we strongly recommend that you refuse to buy the Iranian real or the Iranian stock market. But back to the economy. US employment data from ADP presented a gift to buyers of the US dollar and the US stock market: +202K with a forecast of +160K inspire serious optimism on the eve of the publication of official statistics on Friday. However, the correlation between ADP and official data is very weak, albeit positive, so for now we continue to see in the growth of the dollar is not a threat, but an opportunity. The opportunity for its sales is more expensive. So today we will continue to look for points to open short positions on the dollar. First of all, against the Japanese yen. Everything that is happening in the world plays into the hands of only safe havens. It is hard to imagine that such a positive and relaxing thing should happen in the world so that the level of anxiety and tension would drop sharply. This means that we will continue to buy gold today. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, today will be a day of respite before Friday and data on the US labor market, so no surprises should be expected in this regard.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
USDRUB is ON Sale NowAfter the US took an airstrike on Iran and killing its top general, I have been looking for a countercurrency for USD other than Gold and Oil... and so, USDRUB was detected. Moreover, its price action gave us a convincing sell bias as it has successfully broken the weekly 200ma. This set up will be targeting 55.000 psychological level that was previously tested in 2018 with a risk control stop at 65.000 level. I was able to enter my sell order at 62 this Monday, Jan 06, and this pair is already trading at 61.15 as of this writing. My trading plan will be to partially take half my profit at 61 level, and addsome more at 60, letting the original half position and the additional order to ride the selling pressure upto 55 target price. Caveat! Let me know your comments and reactions too.
Short
by BadongDee
GBPJPY Set to Complete Wave 4 Bearish DeclineAfter a major rally in wave 3 labeled (i)-(v), GBPJPY seems to be making a three-wave pullback in wave 4 which is expected according to Elliot Wave principle. The wave 4 correction which is currently unfolding as a simple zigzag is almost completed. However, it still has the potential to sell lower to around 50% Fib of wave 3 which also lined up with a support zone. Once the correction is completed a rally is expected in wave 5 to complete the entire impulse rally that started in August 2019. The lower time frame analysis below shows how to take advantage of the short-term decline. What's your thought on GBPJPY?
Short
by Veejahbee
2
ELLIOT WAVE: CHFJPY TRADE IDEA CHFJPY completed A-B-C zigzag corrective pattern and setting up for a decline. This decline which can be another short-term correction could also be the beginning of a major decline. What matters right now is that we would at least see a three-wave move to the downside to the nearest demand level as shown on the chart. We will look for a short-term correction in wave (b) to position to a sell entry in wave (c). Here is the 1-hourly outlook. www.tradingview.com What's your thought on CHFJPY? Let me know in the comment. Thanks for reading. Veejahbee.
Short
by Veejahbee