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IRAN ATTACK DID *NOT* CAUSE BTC PUMPIran had little or no effect on the Bitcoin price, which was already in a strong uptrend when the missiles hit. I'm long Bitcoin but I bought the breakout at 7523, two days ago. People like to pretend Bitcoin is the new 'safe haven asset - like gold - that people run to during scary political events. Hopefully one day it will be, but we're not there yet. As you can see on my chart, when the missiles hit, Bitcoin and gold rose, while US stocks fell. But traders quickly decided this event wasn't as serious as they'd feared, so stocks quickly rallied while gold fell back to where it started before the attacks. BTC, meanwhile, held its gains, because they were unrelated to Iran, and were simply part of the existing uptrend. In other words, it was just a coincidence that Bitcoin rose after the missile attacks.
Long
by GlenGoodman
2
Dow Jones head and shouldersLooking at the unfolding events so far between USA and Iran, it seems like tensions are escalating and the fear of war becoming more pronounced. Last week we saw massive gain in safe havens and news over the weekend are not reassuring. Technically, we could start seeing a H&S pattern with RSI divergence. Looking at earlier entries here to minimise risk, since one positive bit of news could send the market flying. Tomorrow waiting for the White House and Iran announcements for further direction. Good Luck!
OANDA:US30USD
by Antonio_trader
Not Big Move Yet in Altcoinsthe thing that makes me to wait to see altcoins moon again is that i'm really bullish on bitcoin. i think bitcoin will break all resistances in 2020 and my reason is halving. i see again these patterns repeat themselves over and over again. -see some bullish move on altcoins -bitcoin to start to move up -and when bitcoin moves up nothing happens to altcoins and whenever it retraces, altcoins start to bleed. so the best scenario for altcoins is that they start to move up from here but in a low slope manner then when bitcoin reaches a new ATH then start to moon. so the best place to put your money in these day of tension in middle east is BITCOIN i'm seeing a correlation between fundamental reasons and technical reason behind this future bitcoin rally that is about to start very soon! War = bitcoin moon because everybody in iran will leave country with their bags full of bitcoin and i see a price separation inside iran from dollar to rial in pricing bitcoin. let me explain in iran bitcoin price is measured by dollar for example if USD to IRR Exchange rate is 140000 Rials and bitcoin price is 7000$ then bitcoin price here in iran will be 980000000 Rials. but it exists with a low volume and low liquid manner. because the bitcoins existed inside of iran is very low, why i say that? i say that because 2 mounth ago we have our internet disconnected from world so all inside the country miners all shut down but nothing spectacular happened to bitcoin hashrate and also here in iran people do not have a international bank account to buy bitcoin from bitstamp or coinbase neither they are allowed to do that because of sanctions of US. so only bitcoins that exists in iran comes from domestic miners. these arguments together with high spreads in domestic crypto exchanges around 3% (yeah 3% spread!!) in iran proves me that the amount of bitcoin in control by iranians is low compared to the demand of it. i'm predicting bitcoin price to take off in iran and get it's own way separated to USD and will be explosive. i have read some articles about this before but they are non-sense because they look at official exchange rate of USDIRR from tradingview or anywhere else but it's not true, the thing is you can not in any means buy USD for 43000 Rials inside of iran. right now that i'm writing this idea the actual exchange rate is around 139700 Rials. so do not get confused. for anyone outside of iran it is hard to find open market price because we don't have well established markets here for currency trading. it is traditionally traded thing and the charts are not appropriate. these things together makes me think that a bull market will be triggered soon by these tensions and my reason is fundamentally valid. and technically i see signs of it considering big rally to 14K and it's big retracement to 6.5k. now is the time to buy. don't hesitate. bitcoin will be explosive, you will wake up every day and you will see bitcoin increased 2000$ every single day! of course with retracements! i was kidding but something like that. so to everybody inside iran i suggest to buy bitcoin right now when everybody start to buy you will not be able to load exchanges websites!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by farzinsabbagh
Risk insurance, what to do with the dollar, oil and the rubleYesterday's opening brought gold to the highest mark since 2013. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, gold is by far the best hedge against geopolitical risks. We generally agree with this and continue to recommend buying the asset, since we believe that the mark of 1800 is an achievable goal for gold this year. But it is much more promising trading ideas in terms of earnings is the US high-tech sector shares sale of for us. But since we are conducting a separate branch of stock reviews, let's get back to the currency and commodity markets, as well as the news. Key events continue to develop around the conflict between the US and Iran. Key news for today: Soleimani killed (second most important person in Iran); Iran announced impending revenge; Iraq asked US troops to leave the country; Trump announced 52 targets in Iran in response to possible attacks; Iran has completely withdrawn from the nuclear deal. Total, the situation is developing, but so far more horizontally than vertically. The growth of gold and oil is rather an attempt to discount in advance under the escalation of the conflict. Although we prefer from time to time to go against the stream and open reverse positions, for now, we recommend going in the direction of travel. At least, we will definitely continue the purchase of gold. As for oil, its further growth will depend entirely on Iran’s actions. In general, we do not believe in the rapid transition of processes to the terminal stage, which means that we do not believe in further oil growth. But first of all, one should proceed from the facts. Therefore, for the time being, we maintain neutrality in oil. Which, however, it does not stop buying an asset within a day from interesting points, as well as selling it in the absence of tough fundamental contraindications. The Russian ruble is still extremely attractive for sales. So those of our readers who have not sold it yet can do it today. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, attention should be paid to consumer inflation and retail sales in the Eurozone, as well as data from the USA (ISM index of business activity in the services sector, production orders and trade balance).
TVC:NDQLong
by Trade24Fx
Opportunities in USDCADA closer look at USD/CAD price action shows it’s trading within the confines of an embedded near-term descending channel formation extending off the December highs with the lower parallel further highlighting support at the 1.2883. Initial resistance now 1.3050 backed by the October low-day close at 1.3086 – both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion if reached. Bearish invalidation now is at 1.3182. A break or close lower from here exposes subsequent support objective at 1.2883, – look for a larger reaction there to 1.2657. The USD/CAD sell-off is testing the first major support target and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the immediate decline may be vulnerable while above the 1.2957 confluence zone. From a trading standpoint, look for exhaustion ahead of recoveries to be capped by the 1.3050. Main scenario: short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 1.3182 with the targets at 1.2883 – 1.2657. Because we understand risks to the thesis, we provided an alternative idea: Alternative scenario: the breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3182 will let the pair grow to the levels of 1.3398 – 1.3563 - The Macro Strategist Team
by TheMacroStrategist
1
How We Predicted the Iran Strikes.Just three days into 2020, and two trading days in, the market reacts to big geopolitical news which shakes the markets. It came out that President Trump ordered a hit on Iranian General of the QUDS force, and Iran’s top military commander, Qasem Soleimani. Markets fell on the news but recovered to end the week close to where they opened, making up for the down move. We saw the safe haven assets go up : Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen as well as Oil. Let us begin with the obvious: Oil. Readers of this blog and my work know that when Oil turned down in 2014, governments forced banks to provide loans to these oil companies to ensure they do not LAY OFF any workers. These oil companies are essentially zombie companies. Oil cannot be allowed to fall because it affects the banks. Oil will be propped up and will continue to be managed higher because it means energy and the financial sectors do well…which make up a large component in the US stock markets. We expect markets to still go up. The sell off we saw is likely people wanting to close positions for this weekend due to the uncertainty, but this will likely be short lived. Do not forget that for a money manager, there is still nowhere to go for yield except the stock markets. This will still force money into stocks. Ironically, many funds have been going into energy because it looks attractive compared to everything else…even though oil fundamentals are not the greatest. This is a chase for yield. Let us not forget about Saudi Aramco as well. The Saudi’s now have even more incentive for higher oil prices. Now onto how we have predicted a future conflict. That post linked below describes the situation in more detail, however I will summarize the major points pertaining to Iran here. Simply this has to do with the US Dollar, and how Russia and China are attacking US Dollar Demand. As long as the Dollar remains the world reserve currency, the Americans can print as much money as they want and not worry about their debts and deficits…a situation the French called “exorbitant privilege”. Russia and China are attacking Dollar demand and are positioning themselves (even instigating) a situation where the Dollar gets stronger and nations choose to NOT use the Dollar for trade due to this strength. My readers know my take on the US Dollar. As the Dollar goes higher, the worlds problems exacerbate. The Dollar is very well what is motivating the Fed to cut rates and other extreme measures to attempt to weaken the Dollar…but it will not work. Iran is key to Russia and China because Iran does NOT take US Dollars for their oil. Nations which have seen their currencies decimated already by US Dollar strength, like the Indian Rupee and the Turkish Lira, cannot afford to use the Dollar for oil anymore and hence why India and Turkey have been buying oil from Iran. Japan, South Korea and European nations also do so, however the Asian nations mentioned and some European nations stopped due to US pressure. Iran is key to Russia and China for their Dollar plan. Russia is also getting close with Saudi Arabia. Putin and future King, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, becoming quite the pals. I have speculated that when he becomes King, he could very well drop the US Dollar for oil and Russia will protect the Kingdom from American retaliation. Why? Well as the Dollar gets stronger, Iranian oil looks more attractive. This means the Saudi’s are losing market share to the Iranians. It would be in their best interest to also drop the Dollar for oil. What is the big factor is the fact the Saudi’s know they are in a prime position right now. The Saudi’s can tell the Americans to deal with the Iranians otherwise they will have to drop the Dollar and accept the Russian and Chinese conditions. For the US, this is a big part of their future decisions. The US has to maintain US Dollar demand, and the best way is by using the military. The US military is now technically the armed branch of the Federal Reserve. We have seen in the past nations like Iraq and Libya threatening and implementing plans to drop the US Dollar for oil…look what happened to them. Russia and China are in the way right now…they will not allow Iran to be destabilized or taken out. The US really has two options: war and/or some sort of capital controls which would see the Eastern sphere literally break off and develop into their own block as many nations look to Moscow and Beijing given the actions of the west. I have written about the war card extensively. It really is a seriously discussed option and US generals are speaking about how they must act within two years. Quite the start to 2020 but we have not seen anything yet in terms of geopolitics and monetary policy.
TVC:DXY
by Uncharted-FX
USDCHF SELL TARGET 0.95700Good evening from the UK. As there is alot of economic volatility it is good to know a few good tips about the markets and how investors react. Currencies can become very volatile is there is a threat on specific economies. the dxy can be impacted negatively due to the iran gestures and drama.This could see investors pull investments out of US assets/stocks/currency and place their capital into assets of solidarity. These could be aspects such as commodities like Gold & Oil where prices could rally to the upside against the dollar or short the dollar against certain currencies. In this case this is what I have as a bias today. We have had 5 bearish weeks for the US Dollar. Investors see the Swiss franc as a safe bet as the thrive of the Switzerland's fantastic economical infrastructure and stability. With threats on the USA looming we could see a continuation of this. Linking it to the Daily technical timeframe, I see price rides underneath the EMA and a slight pullback/retracement the end of last week possibly ready for more sell positions from investors. We will need to see how price opens after the weekend to determine this but a break below the monthly support could be possible. This is a strong support level so a double bottom could form. Price has not closed below 0.96600 since September 18, could the time be now? A great pair to keep an eye on.
Short
by Travis_duncz
Silver trade updateThe break at the low of wave 4 is going well and war tensions between Iran and USA are increasing demand and prices for safe havens. So far no positive news is out regarding the conflict. Looking at the overbought shooting star candle at around $18 level, it would seem that a pullback could happen. So far still bullish on silver and gold. Waiting for new highs to add more long positions, stop below the recent highs. Fundamental news is key here so watch the twitter feed for announcements
FX:XAGUSD
by Antonio_trader
USDJPY trade planAfter unprecedented attack from USA sanctioned by Trump the week turned into quite roller coaster. War threats with Iran have created a fearful first week in the market as safe havens surged with gold and silver gaining around 2.4% and 2.7% respectively since the start of 2020 as investors are trying to protect their capital from exposure in risky markets. JPY of course was a massive gainer, USDJPY fell through the channelled resistance and now found key support level just below 108. This weekend we are waiting for the new development between US and Iran to understand the next direction of this pair. A fall through support would indicate continuation of a short trade. Looking at 1 hour time frame in comments section a down trend line and small resistance zone show potential level for reversal and a buying opportunity. This trade will be largely determined by fundamental news from Iran and White House and I will update whenever news come out. Good Luck!
by Antonio_trader
CPE an inexpensive bet to profit from Iran conflictWith energy prices rising and war with Iran looming, it's a good time to buy a company that exploits domestic oil resources in the United States. The problem with many such companies is that they either trade at a high multiple or their long-term prospects are very poor. Callon Petroleum, which drills oil and natural gas in West Texas, avoids those problems. With a P/E of 4.56, a P/B of 0.44, and forecasted earnings growth for the next couple years, CPE is a strong value for the long term and also should benefit from any escalation of Iran conflict in the short term. CPE has had a tremendous amount of trading volume in its current price range.
CLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
political, environmental & economic impacts on Oil priceThe death of Iranian general, Soleimani, which was orchestrated by Donald Trump caused the price of oil to shoot up, with conflict in Iran (5th largest oil producer) and US (1st largest oil producer) leading to a mass brief bull run due to supply and demand. Here's a graph with spikes and dips in oil prices labelled in order to better understand the effect global issues have on oil. For a long time oil has been monopolised, exploited and fought over, by countries and companies, to the point where oil prices can swing a whole currency. This leads to the price being somewhat volatile in sensitive economic, environmental, political conditions.
TVC:USOIL
by Sampdm8
AMZN Gap FillAMZN Gap Fill is well underway. Already have confirmation on the 5m, 15m, 30m, 1hr charts. With the way it popped yesterday, Don't be surprised if we get back to $1900 in short order. *Key Support at $1865 held and that's where she opened this morning *Immediate bounce up to $1880 level showed some pretty good strength while rest of market was searching for direction - except for $TSLA which apparently just hit ludicrous speed... *Retraced to 1870 after bump up to $1883...didn't even bother to make double bottom shows the bulls are still in control. *Following identical pattern to yesterday's slow, continuous buy-build-buy-build basing. *Bull pennant and nice strong uptrend (maybe a better indicator than the gap fill) has formed on 5m candles and continues to hold.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by DontListenToThisClown
1