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GLOBALISTS AT IT AGAIN, OIL PRIMED TO RUN (BCOUSD)Hello traders. This weekend, YEMENI REBELS have taken credit for a MAJOR DRONE STRIKE on Saudi Oil production, affecting their total output by HALF and therefore decreasing global supply by 2.5%. Shortly thereafter, American officials turned to IRAN to place blame. The American government has been pining for this conflict for a very long time. With any luck, whatever your political leaning might be, President Trump will see through this facade and keep the brave American military OUT of such a conflict. There is no excuse for the exchange of human life for profit!!!! All this to say, BAD FOR EARTH, GOOD FOR OIL SPECULATION. The technicals on Brent Crude, though somewhat 50/50 in my eyes, show CLEARLY that oil indeed has room to run here. This Black Swan event could be the perfect catalyst to cause a major spike in price. There isn't much more to say. I will be taking a market trade here with a relatively tight stop. This will be a low Risk high Reward trade. Good luck everyone. Most importantly, stay safe my friends.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by vox-populi
1
Saudi Aramco Fire to be Bullish Oil? If you have not heard, Saudi Aramco refineries apparently got hit by a drone attack and are now in flames. The US has come out and blamed Iran for this attack. This should be bullish oil, I am looking for a break above the 58.75 zone. I am bearish on oil given the fundamentals and the fact that we are likely heading to a recession. However, anything geopolitical will keep oil buoyed. To be honest oil needs to be kept up. A lot of western oil companies took out loans from banks during the recent fall in oil. If oil falls and these oil companies feel the pinch once again and cannot afford to pay their loans to the banks...the banks will also fall. Oil seems like it needs to be 'managed' above 40 or 50 to keep these companies from falling. If you have read my work on the US Dollar, I have outlined why the Dollar going HIGHER will exacerbate the world problems. You can read that post linked below. Russia and China are attacking Dollar demand. Right now the US has what the French called 'exorbitant privilege' meaning as long as the Dollar remains the reserve currency, there will always be artificial demand for it. Meaning the US can print as much dollars they want without having to care about their debt and deficits. Once US Dollar demand takes a hit, the Chinese can sell off their treasuries and do some damage ( especially when interest rates are cut and moved lower). But they are targeting the Petro Dollar: the US Dollar being used for oil payments. Iran is key for Russia and China. As the US Dollar gets stronger, nations such as South Korea, Japan, Turkey, India and some European nations have chosen to purchase oil from Iran because Iran accepts any currency besides the US Dollar for their oil. Japan, South Korea and some European nations have chosen to lessen or halt their imports due to US pressure. However Turkey and India told the US to mind their own business. The Indian Rupee and the Turkish Lira have been decimated due to the US Dollar strength. These nations essentially cannot afford using the Dollar to buy Oil. Iran is convenient for them because they can use their own currency to purchase oil. As the US Dollar gets stronger, more nations will want to ditch the petro dollar and purchase Iranian oil. On a side note, Russia and China have put a lot of money into Venezuela and backing Maduro...it is likely they have told him that when Venezuelan production comes back to par, Venezuela will NOT accept US Dollars for their oil. Whereas the US backed Guaido would essentially only accept US Dollars for Oil. We have seen this situation occur with Saddan Hussain in Iraq and Gaddafi in Libya where it was likely they were taken out due to the fact they were beginning to accept other currencies besides the Dollar. The Russian and Chinese plan is simple. To get more nations to drop the US Dollar as the Dollar price goes up. In fact with their large Gold reserves, they may be telling dark pools to keep buying the dollar. Yes, there currency will fall against the US Dollar, but their gold priced against their currency increases so they avoid damage. This is how the Russian central bank pretty much fought off US Sanctions. So as the Dollar gets stronger, more nations will elect to purchase oil from Iran. This means that Saudi Arabia begins to lose market share because their customers are going to Iran. This would force the Saudi's to drop the Dollar in order to entice customers...but there is another thing. Putin has been getting close with Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) who is expected to be the next King. We have all seen that Putin-MBS and Trump watching from behind high five meme. It is likely that when MBS becomes King, he will drop the US Dollar with a guarantee that the Russian military will offer Saudi Arabia protection from any US responses. Right now Saudi Arabia can influence American foreign policy greatly. I am sure they have told the US to deal with Iran otherwise they drop the Petro Dollar. They are in a very strong position. For the Americans, I think they know that Iran is the key. They know they need to take Iran out. Of course Iran is no pushover. But the military will have to strike Iran in order to protect US Dollar demand. The US military is the armed branch of the Federal Reserve and the US will have to use the military to force every nations to accept and use the US Dollar and punish those that do not.
TVC:USOIL
by Uncharted-FX
21
Iranian crypto mining industryThe Iranian economy is struggling to deal with economic problems. U.S. sanctions hurt the local economy. One of the possible solutions for Iran was to authorize crypto mining. However, to start crypto mining, potential investors might receive permission from Iran’s Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade. Another condition is that crypto mining should take place outside of provincial centers. They even specified that miners have to establish such facilities at least 30 km from the provincial centers. It does not mean that citizens can use cryptocurrencies to pay for the products. The Iranian government released a new law on August 4 regarding this issue. According to this law, the Iranian government is not going to recognize any domestic transactions which involve cryptocurrencies. Full article
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Financebroker
UK OIL UPSIDE PUSH TO FOLLOW?Hi fellow traders. Looking at UKOIL right now, we can see that the RSI indicator has fallen towards the oversold region and is currently looking for a rally to the upside. Considering that UK Oil Supply is to remain the same, and with the UK Iran Oil Tanker tensions rising, it looks like UKOIL could look to push to the upside. At this point in time 64.20ish would be an ideal buy in position region. I have been considering a buy position from 64.05. Additionally, we can see that we could be rebounding from a critical support level at 63.90. In this case, it looks like it could be the perfect time to long this pair. For a quick bullish squeeze out of this pair, the main ideal target would be around 63.56. For a longer swing on this pair for a few days, looking from a bullish price action point of view, 65.00 region could be an ideal take profit region. Stops should look to be placed around the previously mentioned critical support level of 63.90. If you managed to read it this far down, thanks for reading this! If you could, please do offer your ideas & perspectives on this pair. Buy or Sell and why? Additionally, drop me your charts for it, that'd be great so I can see where you are coming from. I'm a new guy to the FX & Crypto market, trying to learn FX & Crypto, and I'd appreciate any help people may offer! Please drop a follow! I need reputation points!!
FX:UKOILLong
by TheFinancialTRDR
2
Iran's tanker seizure opportunity to buy WTIThe oil market is once again in the spotlight as Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that they have seized an oil tanker near in the Persian Gulf. The nationality of the tanker is yet to be specified as we expect a strong reaction from the US-led Western camp. The WTI price appears to have found a firm fundamental support to rise back from the week's earlier fall. The price is now aiming for 57.50. Once broken, we can follow 58.00 as another target near the upper band of the descending channel.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by LimitMarkets
WTI (USOIL) Might Target $70 Amid Iran Tension & Supply Jitters!The 3 horizontal lines visible in the main weekly chart of WTI are concrete support and resistance levels taken from monthly TF. Currently the price is at 60.00 and there is a descending trendline preventing the price from climbing further. From a technical perspective, once this trendline breaks, the price on the monthly charts must close above 63.00 concrete resistance. This is just to add gain further confluence and confidence in our potential trade. Once the monthly candle closes above 63.00 we could wait for the price to retrace slightly before executing a LONG trade to target 70.00! On a fundamental perspective there are 2 factors in our favor. First one is the IRAN tensions with the US and now potentially U.K. US putting sanctions on iranian OIL is bullish for the WTI and the tensions is just further strengthening this aspect. Secondly, the storm in the gulf is limiting the drilling activities which is also bullish for the OIL. Lastly the the deal that is binding OPEC & NON-OPEC countries seem to be going okay so far as they all want the price of OIL to rise. One thing that is bearish for the WTI at the moment seems the ongoing tradewar which if no deal could be made, the demand for OIL would decrease! So it remains to be seen in the coming weeks how the situation develops. Shall there be a trade entry i will post in a new post.
TVC:USOILLong
by FX618Analysis
Contradictory forecasts for oil & the Bank of Canada decisionThe dollar we recommend to sell against the main currencies duo to reasons absence (we still see no reasons for the Dollar Index new highs ).With the exception of the Canadian dollar. Extremely weak data on the labor market in Canada, published on Friday, amid excellent statistics on NFP from the United States, together with today's meeting of the Bank of Canada, can create ideal conditions for the pair to grow. Tightening monetary policy followed by the Bank of Canada however the gradual economic slowdown multiplied by the Fed's intentions to lower the rate, provide serious prerequisites for changing the vector of monetary policy. Well, today the rate is unlikely to be lowered, but there is a chance for this. This will harm the Canadian dollar, so today we will buy USDCAD. with, at least, 200-300 points, and stops set below 1.3050. Against the rest of the "major" currencies, we will sell the dollar. It is primarily about the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and the pound. Do not forget about Testimony of Fed Chairman Powell in Congress, which is quite possibly accompanied by important statements for the dollar. Future of oil price, that is a good thing to think about, therefore analysts have divided into several groups with a different view of the situation. Some (for example, analysts at JP Morgan) say that OPEC + creates prerequisites for the redistribution of market shares: OPEC + countries essentially “give” some part of their market share to the US and other countries that are not participating in the agreement. So, the oil team from the United States receives carte blanche for further rapid development. As a result, the total supply in the oil market does not fall. At the end, when the OPEC + participants start to engage in their market share and decide to “unscrew the tap”, this will only lead to a decrease in oil prices. That is a new reality is currently being formed on the oil market, in which the fair oil price is not $ 100- $ 120, but $ 60- $ 70. And it is likely that in the foreseeable future, this ceiling will fall to $ 30- $ 40. However, there is an alternative point of view. For example, the Saudi Minister of Energy believes that the situation will evolve according to the classical theory of cycles, which means that the current cycle will soon reach a peak, then change to stagnation, and then come down. In Geopolitics Central, they recall the threat of a military conflict between the US and Iran, which could lead to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. And this will provoke a strong shortage in the oil market and, as a consequence, sharp rise oil prices rise. We are of the opinion that was voiced by analysts J.P. Morgan. The world has changed and it needs to be accepted. The shale revolution (from the supply side and the transition to alternative energy sources from the demand side ) have radically changed the balance of power in the oil market. And the attempts to “measure it” by the out-of-date methods are largely doomed. So we continue to recommend oil sales. Our other trading recommendations are unchanged: we sell the Russian ruble, and for gold, we work without any special preferences - buy from hourly oversold zones and selling from overbought.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
$WTI, No Rejections = No Trade! Great set up thoughWait for full rejection of region showed above then short it for at least 150 pips, Oil is very aggressive at the minute. But, this mild pull back from the 61.8 was expected. Huge $WTI set up for next week. As Oil approaches the 0.5 fib level on the daily with a RT and strong supply level. Expecting a lot of manipulation at this level as the picture is clear to retail. Need to see strong confirmation in the region shown above, before considering any shorts. Caught Oil longs last week from the 52 level and will be looking to switch to shorts if supply is held. Numerous confluences in this area and I am liking this a lot , the middle east is causing Oil to rally at this moment in time so technicals can easily be taken out with ease, lets see how it plays. One for the watchlist.
TVC:USOILShort
by TTG_Tabron
Long term vision on GOLDOn the longer timeframes (1 month) gold broke the horizontal resistance based on the top of summer 2014, July 2016 and around February 2018. For now, it looks the month candle is still trading above the resistance line but, we have one trading week left before the candle closes. So to be safe, wait for one more week, and if price is above resistance line, it's a good opportunity to open a long trade. The more aggressive traders can start building up the positions now, offcourse withe stops below the resistance line. You want to keep the risk low, because it's not been said yet that it's a real break out. Options for fake break out, or stop loss hunt, are still open. This technical long vision also perfectly comes together with the fundamentals: " President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose major new sanctions on Iran Monday, days after he abruptly called off a plan for airstrikes against the Islamic Republic based on the concept of proportionality after Iran shot down a U.S. Navy drone. " - source Bloomberg " Gold (XAU/USD-spot) closed around 1399.43 in the U.S. session Friday, soared almost +0.63% on safe-haven appeal amid U.S. allegation of oil tankers attack by Iran coupled with lingering suspense about U.S.-China trade war. A full-fledged trade/cold war is positive for tariff/imported inflation and also positive for the precious metal as an “inflation hedge”. Gold is also boosted by a deluge of soft U.S. economic data and hopes for two Fed rate cuts in 2019 and one in 2020 amid an intensifying Trump trade war and the probability of an U.S./global economic slowdown. " - by Asis Ghosh on iforex
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DutchFXtrader
Show me the charts, I'll tell you the news: Iran - US warLockheed Martin stock has often been a leading indicator to significant military escalations involving the United States. Now at the brink of a breakout, we could be dangerously close to a major geopolitical disaster. My moral compass prevents me from profiting off of humanitarian tragedy and the blood of innocent human beings that will be spilled as collateral damage due to the actions of two arrogant regimes. So I will not be investing in this stock given the circumstances but I can't help but wonder how much John Bolton and Mike Pompeo and war hawks alike secretly own.
NYSE:LMT
by znaqvi
Possible Double Bottom Forming in USOILDespite ongoing concerns about oversupply and threats to demand, crude has some upward catalysts after a long bear run. Global contracts are up in the month of June, according to a report yesterday, and China's oil appetite is increasing. Also, Iran attacked a couple oil tankers and the US government appears determined to go to war in order to bolster the president's re-election prospects. These factors *could* catalyze an upward breakout, depending how the geopolitical situation shakes out. I suspect the $54.40-54.80 resistance level will act as a magnet in coming weeks, though whether we actually push through that level depends on the news. Look for upward triangle breakout and breach of $52.96 resistance as signs that we'll head north to test the $54.40-54.80 resistance zone.
TVC:USOILLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Euro & pound weakness, oil and our recommendationsMacroeconomic statistics came out better than expected on Thursday, even the fact that data on Eurozone balance crossed the “+” level did not help the euro. The euro was under pressure and below 1.1200 again. That is not a reason for panic. The US will not impose additional tariffs on European automotive industry’s products it means that the States has decided not to escalate the trade war’s pressure with China. For the euro, this is definitely a good signal. So our position on the euro today is buying EURUSD below 1,1200. The same problems the pound was suffering from. The pound is depressing against euro 9 days in a row. That has not been observed since 2000. Markets are still discounted under another failure on Parliament voting agreement on withdrawal. We recommend staying away with buying the pound even if you noticed that entry points become more attractive. We are waiting for better entry points. However, the most impatient traders could open a long position on the pound starting with current prices. Oil continued to grow yesterday. The reason - the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. This refers to the increase in tension between the United States and Iran. Despite the fact that oil is going to close the current week with a solid “plus”, we recall that this may be a swan song of an uptrend before a prolonged fall. Recall, International Energy Agency reminds us that things are going not that great on the oil market. The concern about world oil demand reduction in 2019. The sharp increase in oil reserves in the United States (grew by 5.4 million over the week). Our plan for trading on Friday is as follows: we will look for points for buying the euro and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold and the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
WTI CRUDE OIL (USOIL) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORTWell today i have some bad and good news. Which one would you want to hear first? I guess let's start with thee crappy news! I somehow missed a 500+pip bearish move on oil. Like who does that? Anyway, it is not totally a bad thing. Because the good news is that it has created some nice structure in the market on which we can base future trades. My bias on oil is now bearish. Yeah i might seem late but trust me i know what i am doing (even though my profile says i don't). Plus history repeats itself. So let me share how i might possibly enter this trade. Obviously, i prefer to enter on a breakout of the corrective pattern, but it might be good on the price but bad on the timing. Perfect entries do not exist lol. You have to find what suits you. Without further ado, here are the numbers; ENTRY: 60 STOP LOSS: 63 TAKE PROFIT :57
TVC:USOILShort
by munyaelliott
1
The US pushes oil up, and HSE predicts the ruble fallLatest information about the US. The USA intends to reduce oil exports from Iran to 0. Thus, the upward movement in the oil market received a new impetus. So, our attempt to catch the correction at the very top was clearly premature. But first things first. According to the Washington Post, the United States no longer intends to grant preferential permission to buy Iranian oil to any country. Earlier, 8 countries were granted benefits in the form of the possibility of buying Iranian oil without sanctions from the United States. But according to current information from May 2, preferential permits will be canceled. What does this mean for the oil market? By some estimates - a loss of about 1 million b / d. (before US sanctions, Iranian oil exports amounted to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. After November, exports decreased to 1 million barrels per day.). This is a very serious volume. So the growth of quotations is more than reasonable. In response, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of all oil supplies pass. Considering this news and the fact that the resistance level of 64.50 (WTI mark) was broken down, we decided to return the recommendation to “buy” oil. And we are planning to look for points for buying the asset on the intraday basis. Such news does not help calm the financial markets. Indeed, in theory, China, India, and Turkey, unlike the other 4 countries from the list of beneficiaries, may well rebel. In particular, China has already announced that it is going to continue to buy Iranian oil. In this light, another of our recommendations is of particular relevance. It is about buying gold. An additional argument in favor of buying gold can be called a series of terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka. The Russian ruble reached its maximum for the year yesterday. In our opinion, this is an excellent reason for its sales. It cannot get any better than this. Moreover, according to HSE experts, in 2019 capital outflows from Russia will amount to $ 40- $ 50 billion, which will lead to a currency deficit, and in this case, the dollar to the ruble exchange rate will rise to 68-70 in the second half of the year. About our trading preferences, we note that we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar on the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are buying), buying gold and oil on the commodity markets, and in addition, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Iranian pressure's from U.S. cause n effect "The Washington Post came out with a news report on early Monday saying that the US State Department is set to announce that all countries will have to completely end their imports of Iranian oil or be subject to U.S. sanctions. The report further states that the US action is an escalation of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign, which seeks to force Tehran to end its illicit behavior around the world." - Copy and pasted from FX Street 7:18 PM CST
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by PLAINVI3W