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Iran's tanker seizure opportunity to buy WTIThe oil market is once again in the spotlight as Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that they have seized an oil tanker near in the Persian Gulf. The nationality of the tanker is yet to be specified as we expect a strong reaction from the US-led Western camp. The WTI price appears to have found a firm fundamental support to rise back from the week's earlier fall. The price is now aiming for 57.50. Once broken, we can follow 58.00 as another target near the upper band of the descending channel.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by LimitMarkets
WTI (USOIL) Might Target $70 Amid Iran Tension & Supply Jitters!The 3 horizontal lines visible in the main weekly chart of WTI are concrete support and resistance levels taken from monthly TF. Currently the price is at 60.00 and there is a descending trendline preventing the price from climbing further. From a technical perspective, once this trendline breaks, the price on the monthly charts must close above 63.00 concrete resistance. This is just to add gain further confluence and confidence in our potential trade. Once the monthly candle closes above 63.00 we could wait for the price to retrace slightly before executing a LONG trade to target 70.00! On a fundamental perspective there are 2 factors in our favor. First one is the IRAN tensions with the US and now potentially U.K. US putting sanctions on iranian OIL is bullish for the WTI and the tensions is just further strengthening this aspect. Secondly, the storm in the gulf is limiting the drilling activities which is also bullish for the OIL. Lastly the the deal that is binding OPEC & NON-OPEC countries seem to be going okay so far as they all want the price of OIL to rise. One thing that is bearish for the WTI at the moment seems the ongoing tradewar which if no deal could be made, the demand for OIL would decrease! So it remains to be seen in the coming weeks how the situation develops. Shall there be a trade entry i will post in a new post.
TVC:USOILLong
by FX618Analysis
Contradictory forecasts for oil & the Bank of Canada decisionThe dollar we recommend to sell against the main currencies duo to reasons absence (we still see no reasons for the Dollar Index new highs ).With the exception of the Canadian dollar. Extremely weak data on the labor market in Canada, published on Friday, amid excellent statistics on NFP from the United States, together with today's meeting of the Bank of Canada, can create ideal conditions for the pair to grow. Tightening monetary policy followed by the Bank of Canada however the gradual economic slowdown multiplied by the Fed's intentions to lower the rate, provide serious prerequisites for changing the vector of monetary policy. Well, today the rate is unlikely to be lowered, but there is a chance for this. This will harm the Canadian dollar, so today we will buy USDCAD. with, at least, 200-300 points, and stops set below 1.3050. Against the rest of the "major" currencies, we will sell the dollar. It is primarily about the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and the pound. Do not forget about Testimony of Fed Chairman Powell in Congress, which is quite possibly accompanied by important statements for the dollar. Future of oil price, that is a good thing to think about, therefore analysts have divided into several groups with a different view of the situation. Some (for example, analysts at JP Morgan) say that OPEC + creates prerequisites for the redistribution of market shares: OPEC + countries essentially “give” some part of their market share to the US and other countries that are not participating in the agreement. So, the oil team from the United States receives carte blanche for further rapid development. As a result, the total supply in the oil market does not fall. At the end, when the OPEC + participants start to engage in their market share and decide to “unscrew the tap”, this will only lead to a decrease in oil prices. That is a new reality is currently being formed on the oil market, in which the fair oil price is not $ 100- $ 120, but $ 60- $ 70. And it is likely that in the foreseeable future, this ceiling will fall to $ 30- $ 40. However, there is an alternative point of view. For example, the Saudi Minister of Energy believes that the situation will evolve according to the classical theory of cycles, which means that the current cycle will soon reach a peak, then change to stagnation, and then come down. In Geopolitics Central, they recall the threat of a military conflict between the US and Iran, which could lead to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. And this will provoke a strong shortage in the oil market and, as a consequence, sharp rise oil prices rise. We are of the opinion that was voiced by analysts J.P. Morgan. The world has changed and it needs to be accepted. The shale revolution (from the supply side and the transition to alternative energy sources from the demand side ) have radically changed the balance of power in the oil market. And the attempts to “measure it” by the out-of-date methods are largely doomed. So we continue to recommend oil sales. Our other trading recommendations are unchanged: we sell the Russian ruble, and for gold, we work without any special preferences - buy from hourly oversold zones and selling from overbought.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
$WTI, No Rejections = No Trade! Great set up thoughWait for full rejection of region showed above then short it for at least 150 pips, Oil is very aggressive at the minute. But, this mild pull back from the 61.8 was expected. Huge $WTI set up for next week. As Oil approaches the 0.5 fib level on the daily with a RT and strong supply level. Expecting a lot of manipulation at this level as the picture is clear to retail. Need to see strong confirmation in the region shown above, before considering any shorts. Caught Oil longs last week from the 52 level and will be looking to switch to shorts if supply is held. Numerous confluences in this area and I am liking this a lot , the middle east is causing Oil to rally at this moment in time so technicals can easily be taken out with ease, lets see how it plays. One for the watchlist.
TVC:USOILShort
by TTG_Tabron
Long term vision on GOLDOn the longer timeframes (1 month) gold broke the horizontal resistance based on the top of summer 2014, July 2016 and around February 2018. For now, it looks the month candle is still trading above the resistance line but, we have one trading week left before the candle closes. So to be safe, wait for one more week, and if price is above resistance line, it's a good opportunity to open a long trade. The more aggressive traders can start building up the positions now, offcourse withe stops below the resistance line. You want to keep the risk low, because it's not been said yet that it's a real break out. Options for fake break out, or stop loss hunt, are still open. This technical long vision also perfectly comes together with the fundamentals: " President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose major new sanctions on Iran Monday, days after he abruptly called off a plan for airstrikes against the Islamic Republic based on the concept of proportionality after Iran shot down a U.S. Navy drone. " - source Bloomberg " Gold (XAU/USD-spot) closed around 1399.43 in the U.S. session Friday, soared almost +0.63% on safe-haven appeal amid U.S. allegation of oil tankers attack by Iran coupled with lingering suspense about U.S.-China trade war. A full-fledged trade/cold war is positive for tariff/imported inflation and also positive for the precious metal as an “inflation hedge”. Gold is also boosted by a deluge of soft U.S. economic data and hopes for two Fed rate cuts in 2019 and one in 2020 amid an intensifying Trump trade war and the probability of an U.S./global economic slowdown. " - by Asis Ghosh on iforex
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DutchFXtrader
Show me the charts, I'll tell you the news: Iran - US warLockheed Martin stock has often been a leading indicator to significant military escalations involving the United States. Now at the brink of a breakout, we could be dangerously close to a major geopolitical disaster. My moral compass prevents me from profiting off of humanitarian tragedy and the blood of innocent human beings that will be spilled as collateral damage due to the actions of two arrogant regimes. So I will not be investing in this stock given the circumstances but I can't help but wonder how much John Bolton and Mike Pompeo and war hawks alike secretly own.
NYSE:LMT
by znaqvi
Possible Double Bottom Forming in USOILDespite ongoing concerns about oversupply and threats to demand, crude has some upward catalysts after a long bear run. Global contracts are up in the month of June, according to a report yesterday, and China's oil appetite is increasing. Also, Iran attacked a couple oil tankers and the US government appears determined to go to war in order to bolster the president's re-election prospects. These factors *could* catalyze an upward breakout, depending how the geopolitical situation shakes out. I suspect the $54.40-54.80 resistance level will act as a magnet in coming weeks, though whether we actually push through that level depends on the news. Look for upward triangle breakout and breach of $52.96 resistance as signs that we'll head north to test the $54.40-54.80 resistance zone.
TVC:USOILLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Euro & pound weakness, oil and our recommendationsMacroeconomic statistics came out better than expected on Thursday, even the fact that data on Eurozone balance crossed the “+” level did not help the euro. The euro was under pressure and below 1.1200 again. That is not a reason for panic. The US will not impose additional tariffs on European automotive industry’s products it means that the States has decided not to escalate the trade war’s pressure with China. For the euro, this is definitely a good signal. So our position on the euro today is buying EURUSD below 1,1200. The same problems the pound was suffering from. The pound is depressing against euro 9 days in a row. That has not been observed since 2000. Markets are still discounted under another failure on Parliament voting agreement on withdrawal. We recommend staying away with buying the pound even if you noticed that entry points become more attractive. We are waiting for better entry points. However, the most impatient traders could open a long position on the pound starting with current prices. Oil continued to grow yesterday. The reason - the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. This refers to the increase in tension between the United States and Iran. Despite the fact that oil is going to close the current week with a solid “plus”, we recall that this may be a swan song of an uptrend before a prolonged fall. Recall, International Energy Agency reminds us that things are going not that great on the oil market. The concern about world oil demand reduction in 2019. The sharp increase in oil reserves in the United States (grew by 5.4 million over the week). Our plan for trading on Friday is as follows: we will look for points for buying the euro and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold and the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
WTI CRUDE OIL (USOIL) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORTWell today i have some bad and good news. Which one would you want to hear first? I guess let's start with thee crappy news! I somehow missed a 500+pip bearish move on oil. Like who does that? Anyway, it is not totally a bad thing. Because the good news is that it has created some nice structure in the market on which we can base future trades. My bias on oil is now bearish. Yeah i might seem late but trust me i know what i am doing (even though my profile says i don't). Plus history repeats itself. So let me share how i might possibly enter this trade. Obviously, i prefer to enter on a breakout of the corrective pattern, but it might be good on the price but bad on the timing. Perfect entries do not exist lol. You have to find what suits you. Without further ado, here are the numbers; ENTRY: 60 STOP LOSS: 63 TAKE PROFIT :57
TVC:USOILShort
by munyaelliott
1
The US pushes oil up, and HSE predicts the ruble fallLatest information about the US. The USA intends to reduce oil exports from Iran to 0. Thus, the upward movement in the oil market received a new impetus. So, our attempt to catch the correction at the very top was clearly premature. But first things first. According to the Washington Post, the United States no longer intends to grant preferential permission to buy Iranian oil to any country. Earlier, 8 countries were granted benefits in the form of the possibility of buying Iranian oil without sanctions from the United States. But according to current information from May 2, preferential permits will be canceled. What does this mean for the oil market? By some estimates - a loss of about 1 million b / d. (before US sanctions, Iranian oil exports amounted to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. After November, exports decreased to 1 million barrels per day.). This is a very serious volume. So the growth of quotations is more than reasonable. In response, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of all oil supplies pass. Considering this news and the fact that the resistance level of 64.50 (WTI mark) was broken down, we decided to return the recommendation to “buy” oil. And we are planning to look for points for buying the asset on the intraday basis. Such news does not help calm the financial markets. Indeed, in theory, China, India, and Turkey, unlike the other 4 countries from the list of beneficiaries, may well rebel. In particular, China has already announced that it is going to continue to buy Iranian oil. In this light, another of our recommendations is of particular relevance. It is about buying gold. An additional argument in favor of buying gold can be called a series of terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka. The Russian ruble reached its maximum for the year yesterday. In our opinion, this is an excellent reason for its sales. It cannot get any better than this. Moreover, according to HSE experts, in 2019 capital outflows from Russia will amount to $ 40- $ 50 billion, which will lead to a currency deficit, and in this case, the dollar to the ruble exchange rate will rise to 68-70 in the second half of the year. About our trading preferences, we note that we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar on the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are buying), buying gold and oil on the commodity markets, and in addition, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Iranian pressure's from U.S. cause n effect "The Washington Post came out with a news report on early Monday saying that the US State Department is set to announce that all countries will have to completely end their imports of Iranian oil or be subject to U.S. sanctions. The report further states that the US action is an escalation of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign, which seeks to force Tehran to end its illicit behavior around the world." - Copy and pasted from FX Street 7:18 PM CST
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by PLAINVI3W
Further increase in oil is questionableThe relative calm of financial markets on Thursday. Important statistics were not published yesterday. There is nothing expected to change the current situation on Friday. So, it means we continue to work in the previous vein. While there is a cooling-off period for the main issues of concern, let's talk a little about the future of the oil market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) drew the attention of oil market participants to the fact that its more than 40% growth in 2019 is entirely due to the supply factors: OPEC +, sanctions against Iran, the problems of Venezuela and Libya - All this contributed to a reduction in supply in the market and higher prices. So,the IEA experts believe that in the second half of 2019 the market focus may shift from the supply factor to the demand factor. And in this case, the situation does not seem to favor buying oil. Recall the IMF lowered its forecasts for the growth rate of the global economy once again. It means a slowdown in oil demand For the oil market. Sum up the demand may not grow strongly enough to push oil prices up in the future. Concern about the failure of the second half of 2019 for oil is increasing by statements from OPEC that the cartel may increase oil production after June. And although the things voiced by the IEA relate to the medium term, it is worth keeping them in mind when making long-term trading decisions. Nevertheless, here and now, trading on the intraday basis is still relevant. But the stops on buying must be set and be made as small as possible. A possible quick correction in the oil market is a reason not only to think about oil sales but also about the sales of the Russian ruble, which recently has greatly reduced the level of correlation with oil quotations, however, it remains totally dependent on asset prices. Moreover, the current price of the ruble is very favorable for its sales. Recall that in addition to intraday buying of oil and ruble selling on all time horizons, we are looking for points for intraday buying of gold, as well as sales of the dollar on almost all fronts (with the exception of the Japanese yen).
by Trade24Fx
Oil - Hormuz - Demand up to 80?Based on potential issues with Iran involving the Hormuz Strait I just published and quickly cancelled a chart looking for a run up to 76.5-77.5 and then a pullback to 74. But then thought - if this issue continues to unfold then prices may just continue to grind up over the next month without much in the way of prices pulling back. I am highly advising taking partial or even full profits at the 76.5-77.5 area in the even that Hormuz becomes a non-isse early in the week, but if prices hover at the 77 level, it may be a sign of a continued bull run and i believe a move toward 80-81 is very possible. Enter Long: 73.82-74.12 TP1: 76.49 TP2: 77.67 TP3: 78.86 TP4: 80.00 I am advising re-adding/building long positions on a pullback from TP2 and TP3 (see chart for re-add levels). Questions and comments are welcome, good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by smitheric1970
13
The Hormuz Straight PlayPotential 470 ticks: I am looking for a potential Long and Short play in Oil short term. I was recently bearish minded at 74.12 but following the price action this past week I believe we may have another run up coming potentially due to geopolitics involving the Hormuz straight. Trade on the chart is self explanatory based on 2014 Supply/Demand levels. Note: If geopolitics do not heat up short term over the Hormuz Straight, then I believe prices will still test 75.3-75.6 this week; that would be a good level to take partial profits. Long Entry: 73.82-74.12 (Entry is active) Target: 76.49 Short Entry: 76.49 Target: 74.12 @kate25 We can rename the chair pattern the "Hormuz Straight Pattern" if this plays out. :) s3.amazonaws.com If this does happen then I believe prices may enter a long term approximately 5 dollar sideways extended range, hitting strong supply levels but waiting 2 or 3 months for a larger pullback as heavy puts start to decay similar to the Nov 2016-March 2017 Range. s3.amazonaws.com Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by smitheric1970
9