Iron Ore Weakness May Continue as Death Cross Looms An incoming Death Cross formation may add to iron ore's downside in the coming weeks. The 50-day Simple Moving Average is on track to intersect the 200-day SMA. Prices found support at the September 2020 high, but the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside with a descending channel.
IRON
#CSNA3 sell signalAccordingly Bulkowski's, it's being drawn a Broadening tops pattern on CSNA3 (Brazil Ibovespa stock).
#VALE3 is also breaking the a trend ascending line and should visit 100BRL soon. Vale has 12% weight on #IBOV composition.
It's a good moment to consider going short, stop long positions or look at some protections (e.g. PUT options)
IRON TARIHi guys,
IV keeps quite low, this week too, so I have to reverse my Tari condor.
3 weeks 6% strike, 37% of probability to end ITM. So I reverse the condor, so the odds come to my side, because I have 63% of probability to gain a profit, and my RR is almost 1:1 ( 0.85 commisions incl.)
So subscribe for free to trade with Tari Condor!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari
Gold Builds Up As Hyperinflation Risk RiseInflation is the term that indicates rising prices for goods and services in an economy, while rapid and out of control rising of prices indicates Hyperinflation .
While following the rapid increase in prices of commodities and metals such as Lumber LBS1! and Iron Ore TIO1! , it is accurate to say that global economy is being driven to Hyperinflation due to mismanagement of economical struggle caused by Covid-19 Pandemic.
Gold offered and offers strong potential for gains in economic struggles and even after economic recovery occurs, given how undervalued at this time relative to high prices of commodities.
Taking all these fundamentals into consideration combining with technical analysis, Gold price does not reflect its value.
You may see my long position strategy below and on the chart,
Entry Point: 1870.00
1st Target : 1950.00
2nd Target: 2075.00
3rd Target: 2180.00
Stop Loss : 1800.00
Thank you and stay tuned for more strategies!
Please leave a like and comment what you think.
Trade safe and have a nice Monday
IRON Mountain IRMOn the Weekly time frame we can observe that the candles are hitting the upper channel with a strong bull exhaustion. The Stochastic Momentum Index an the MACD on a Daily time frame are showing a bearish sign. I think we are going slowly in a distribution zone with sideways movements .
Iron Ore - where to next?Thanks for viewing. This will just be a short one. My reasons for bearishness are:
- bearish RSI divergence (higher price high shown as a lower high on the RSI - at a minimum indicates reduced momentum but normally precedes changes in price direction),
- MACD histogram is trending downward quite steeply,
- MACD moving averages look like they are starting to head towards a cross-over to the downside,
- Declining volume over the past 18 months (seems to average over 400 in May 2019 and is about 120 now),
- A generalised global industrial slowdown.
I may be wrong, or I may be right but just too early, and there may be residual upside remaining. Medium term I see price heading back to ~$40 level.
Protect those funds.
Tari CondorHi guys,
this iron condor is W1 5%strike (check my strategy for more info, it's vary easy!)
We have 71% of success: Rew/Risk= 100-71/100=0.40
With one week to expiration it's not easy to find a good price for these 5% strikes, so I moved the strikes @ 190 and @215, with a 5$ spread for each vertical.
The RR is 0.41, so this is not a big edge, but trading wider wings wh move our edge on the side of the probability, becuase BE is wider, just like the bought strikes, wich give us tha max loss.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari
$JSEKIO Kumba could reverse soonKeep a close eye on Kumba Iron ore around current levels. Two important inflection points are of interest to me:
(1) The stock has been quite sticky around the 200 day moving average (green line) in the recent past. The 200 day moving average often becomes support and resistance for the stock. (as indicated by the green blocks) Currently the stock seems to be consolidating around the 200 day moving average and i would expect a top to form around these levels.
(2) Most importantly, the declining trend-line joining the tops since July 2019 comes in at these levels. Stock is currently resisting off this trend-line.
In addition, volume has tapered off on the rise which doesn't instill to much confidence in the move higher. The Relative Strength Indicator has not managed to break above the RSI 63 level since October 2019 and is also currently resisting once again.
Putting all of the above together, I would favor Kumba Iron Ore retreating from current levels. Look to short between R370-R380, using a stop loss as a close above R390. Target on the downside: R305.
MT Buy Opportunity LoadingCommodities have remained very cheap against the recent rise in Major World Indexes.
This includes iron ore.
And this cheapness can create opportunities in the iron and steel industry.
The price can get even cheaper.
The analysis does not contain a very high quality risk / reward ratio, but I think it is possible to make very profitable trades based on this idea in lower time frames.
Parameters
Risk/Reward Ratio : 1 / 1.68
Stop-Loss : 13.632
Goal : 20.43
AAPL weekly Iron Condorlong 270
short 267.50
short 260
long 257.50
Max profit $1.07 (AAPL close between 260-267.50)
Max loss $1.43 breakeven $268.57, $258.93
A trade to collect option premium. I'm targeting 40-50% return depending on price action. There's ~70% chance of profit which is on the low side. IV is also low so I will be watching carefully for any turns for the worst given the short duration.
As of Nov 15th, my risk is to the upside. Will update early next week :)
AAPL Iron Condor spreadAAPL could range around 160-190 as the price continues to move lower, the spy is fading and mexico tariffs are coming. This will be bearish environment as the greater trend. The lesser trend in appl is also bearish and may move sideways now that the price has dropped lower.
155/160/190/195 Iron Condor, EXP July 19, Max gain/loss 154/346
I plan to take at least $90 out of this trade, plan to exit on July 6-7 for a profit if the price is lower I will roll the pattern into an iron fly or sell one wing to cover some of my losses.
Likewise max loss will be $180.
Date to modify trade if it is moving against me will be June 26th.
This is a journal entry and not trading advice.
PANW Iron CondorSince PANW is very rich in premium right now with a high IV. It seems to have broken support and is going sideways. ER is May 30th I may decide to take off the trade before then however I may also want to take advantage of the IV contraction.
195/200/240/250 EXP June 21st $290/710 Profit/Risk
I plan to take the trade off at $150 profit which means I will risk $300 to make $150 since its a high probability trade. If this goes toward the bottom end I will try rolling the top side closer to the side broken or I may just leave the trade since the top side is more vulnerable.
Trade Journal Entry, not trade advice.
Bullish signs from Iron Ore Futures 3 scenarios: 2 bull 1 bear.
1. Bullish upper trend-line break from first wave leading diagonal (T1 equal to or greater than $106 and T2 ~$139),
2. ABC correction (blue) following extended correction - we are currently in wave B triangle (T1 $106 for 1:1 wave A),
3. Downward breakout for additional corrective retrace.
At this stage scenario 2 looks the more likely.
Before getting too far ahead; look for a lower trend-line bounce first.
This is a 100% technical analysis and no element of fundamental analysis was considered. I am not a professional trader and my analysis if shared simply to further my own education.
Iron ore futures contracts have reached two-year highsIron ore futures contracts have reached two-year highs driven by a dam collapse at a Vale mine in Brazil. The work of the mine was suspended, which affects the volume of supply in the market.
Such an accident is difficult to fix in a short time, and the market agrees. We see it in the prices of long term futures contracts.
Since the accident, the rise in the value of futures contracts amounted to
From 18% to 24% on the NYMEX
From 10% to 15% on Dalian Commodity Exchange in US Dollars