Ironcondor
OPENING: SMH JUNE 21ST 107/110/126/129 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.09/contract credit.
Another premium selling play, small, defined in the semicon exchange-traded fund with implied volatility at nearly twice that of the broad market ... . Collecting slightly greater than one-third the width of the wings. Will look to take profit at 50% max. The naked 110/126 short strangle in the June cycle is currently paying 2.78.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $109/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $191
Break Evens: 108.91/127.09
Delta/Theta: -2.39/1.19
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR EARNINGS, EWZTWTR (41/54) announces earnings on Tuesday before market open; pictured here is a May 17th 30/39 short strangle.
Metrics:
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/3.50/contract
Max Profit: 1.09
Break Evens: 28.91/40.09
Delta/Theta: -3.99/4.92
Front Week to May Opex Volatility Differential: 41.5%
Notes: Look to put a play on in the waning hours of the Monday session, adjusting the strikes to reflect any movement in the underlying if necessary.
For those of a defined risk bent, the May 17th 27/31/38/42 iron condor is paying 1.13 with a buying power effect of 2.87, break evens of 29.87/39.13, and delta/theta of -1.24/2.9. It isn't quite what I like to see out of these (one-third the width of the widest wing in credit). By going slightly wider, you give up some credit at the door while increasing probability of profit.
On the exchange-traded fund front, not much is rocking. Moreover, we're still in between cycles for me, with May opex being too short in duration and June being a touch long. As with last week, I'm looking to put something on in EWZ (14/30), since I don't have anything on at the moment, but have really just been waiting for June to get closer in time: the June 21st 36/44.5 short strangle is paying 1.23 with a buying power effect of about 4.10/contract, break evens at 34.77/45.73, and delta/theta metrics of -2.1/2.35. It's a little wider than I usually like to go (~25 deltas), but if I'm going to but it on early in the cycle, I want a little more room to adjust if necessary.
The standard 25/10 iron condor in the June cycle is the 34/37/44/47, which is paying 1.02 with a buying power effect of 1.98, break evens of 35.98/45.02, and delta/theta of -2.05/1.07.
OPENING: XBI MAY 17TH 80/85/98/103 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.67/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.67 ($167)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 3.33 ($333)
Break Evens: 83.33/99.67
Delta: -2.03
Theta: 2.02
Notes: Some nondirectional premium selling here in an exchange-traded fund with high implied (24.8%) relative to the broad market; going 25 delta with the shorts, five-wide with the longs and collecting one-third the width of the wings. Will look to take profit at 50% max.
Apr 18 - CELGCELG 18-Apr-19
IV30: 48.2, IVR: 98%
Short Iron Condor
+0.05D Long 1 Call: 100 Strike @ $0.15
-0.19D Short 1 Call: 95 Strike @ $1.00
-0.07D Long 1 Put: 65 Strike @ $0.62
+0.15D Short 1 Put: 70 Strike @ $1.40
-0.06D Credit: $1.63
PCR: 41:59
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CELG 18-Apr-19
IV30: 48.2, IVR: 98%
Short Iron Butterfly
+0.53D Long 1 Call: 85 Strike @ $6.23
-0.65D Short 1 Call: 80 Strike @ $9.15
-0.24D Long 1 Put: 75 Strike @ $2.62
+0.35D Short 1 Put: 80 Strike @ $4.38
-0.01D Credit: $4.68
PCR: 41:59
Highest OI @ 80 Strike
Mar 15 - ROSTROST 15-Mar-19
IV:45.2, IVR: 100% (Elevated)
+0.20D Long 1 Call: 100 Strike @ $0.83
-0.32D Short 1 Call: 97.5 Strike @ $1.53
-0.06D Long 1 Put: 80 Strike @ $0.28
+0.10D Short 1 Put: 82.5 Strike @ $0.45
-0.08D Credit: $0.88
PCR: 45:55
Highest Call OI @ 100, 97.5 and 95
indicating high volume of naked calls or bear call spreads.
May 17 - NLSNNLSN 17-May-19
Short Iron Condor
IV30: 52.10%, IVR: 99%
+0.07D Long 1 Call: 32 Strike @ $0.15
-0.13D Short 1 Call: 31 Strike @ $0.28
-0.10D Long 1 Put: 19 Strike @ $0.35
+0.14D Short 1 Put: 20 Strike @ $0.50
-0.02D Credit: $0.28
PCR:35:65
TRADE IDEA: EA APRIL 18TH 90/95/120/125 IRON CONDORMETRICS:
Max Profit: $175/contract* ($87 at 50% max; 38.7% return on capital)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $225/contract
Break Evens: 93.25/121.75
Delta: .26
Theta: 121.75
Notes: Another scrounge-around trade in an underlying with fairly high rank/high implied (51/45) post-earnings.
Obvious Alternative Setups:
April 18th 95/120 short strangle, 5.11 at the mid, break evens at 89.89/125.11, delta -5.21, theta 9.11.
* -- Markets are showing wide here -- 1.17/1.75/2.32, so this may prove to be unsexy at NY open. I wouldn't settle for a fill that is less than one-third the width of the wings (1.67).
How to manage a small portfolioWhen trading in a small account, it is very important to be efficient with the capital used. That is why, even though is not the optimal trade we are forced to trade using defined risk strategies like Iron Condors.
This is the continuation of the portfolio started in our How to trade options series, where we start a portfolio from scratch. We started a $5,000 account and added 4 different trades. I closed 2 of those yesterday, open 2 new ones and defended one that was tested.
The first management was closing trades with 3 weeks from the expiration date to reduce risk. We closed trades on QQQ and on XLU.
Then we look for new trades and explained in the video how I chose the new trades and how to manage them.
Also explained the impact of commissions when trading with a small account vs a bigger account and lastly we defended a trade that is going against us.
Watch the video explanation for details:
youtu.be
M&M good for Short Strangle (700-800 type)?Although M&M slipped sharply after its monthly numbers, it is probably tracing a triangle. The upside should be capped for few weeks to recent highs around 814. Downside may extend to 720 (not beyond for few days). Seems good candidate for short strangle. Can also do a broken iron condor by adding a put protection to the downside, should ensure minimal loss if breaks heavily to the downside. All ideas shared for educational purposes only.
Iron condor on QQQ This is a short Iron condor Example for Accounts that can't do naked options.
Instead of a Strangle We can buy the wings ($5 wide minimum) and make it an Iron Condor. This will defined our risk and our capital need it for the trade is just $325.
This is a neutral strategy with a little downward skew given the rally the last couple of days.
Sold:
147 Put
168 Call
Bought:
142 Put
173 Call
38 Days to expiration for 1.75
Max win is $175
Max loss is $325
Delta 20 with $5 Wings
Our Break evens:
145.25
169.75
Probability of profit = 60%
USO - Neutral Iron CondorWith natural gas in play, opportunity here allows participation similar. Price extension to the downside should slow down & the neutrality should give room for risk management if directional assumption is wrong.
8/9/13.5/14.5 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.21 CREDIT
General plan:
Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk.
Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early.
Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas!
Follow for updates.
UNG - Bullish-neutral Iron CondorThe major activity in natural gas, especially over the past 2 weeks presented an opportunity to make a bullish-neutral bet.
31/32/42/43 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.73 CREDIT
General plan:
Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk.
Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early.
Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas!
Follow for updates.
OPENING: SPY JAN 18TH 244/247/272/275 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.06/contract credit.
Max Profit: $106/contract
Max Loss: $194/contract
Break Evens: 245.94/273.06
Theta: 1.86
Delta: -1.75
Notes: Replacing an iron condor I closed earlier to keep my risk constant throughout the cycle and given this high volatility environment. It also has the effect of adding a smidge of short delta to my core position, which has turned slightly long in this down move. After the earlier closing and this opening: Scratch point for the core position is 10.52.
SPY: CLOSING JAN 18TH 247/250/278/281 IRON CONDOR (LATE POST)... for a .90/contract credit (.30/$30 profit/contract).
You know the drill -- mixing and matching profitable call side with profitable put side from iron condors put on over time. Will replace this setup with another iron condor in the same expiry; keeping my risk/buying power effect constant throughout the cycle given the fact that background implied volatility remains high.
If we ever get a massive volatility crush, I'll decrease risk by reducing total units and dry out powder for the next volatility pop.
OPENING: SPY JAN 18TH 247/250/277/280 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.07/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $107/contract
Max Loss: $193/contract
Break Evens: 248.93/278.07
Delta; -1.4
Theta: 1.73
Notes: With 38 days to go in the January cycle, layering on a smidge of short delta to my slightly long delta SPY core position, which -- as I note below -- can't be adjusted all that much. As usual, I'll look to mix and match profitable put side with profitable call side to realize gains and to take off risk running into expiry. Current scratch point: 10.36.
A side note: Layering on with short strangles is a bit easier than with iron condors. Iron condors' long option wings can be "stepped on" when layering on -- selling a short put at the same strike as one of your preexisting longs closes the long out and vice versa (buying a long option at the same strike as a preexisting short closes the short out). Always check that you're showing that you're "opening" the four separate legs of the iron condor you want to put on, rather than opening some legs and closing out others that you've already got on. You can naturally sell setups in different expiries to avoid "stepping on," but you generally want to mix and match profitable put side with profitable call side in the same expiry to optimize buying power utilization.