CLOSING: XOP 30/33/41/44 IRON CONDOR... for a .72/contract debit (.38 profit/contract; 34.5% max).
Notes: As with my SPY core position, I'm mixing and matching profitable short put side with short call side of oppositional setups that I put on over time to take off some risk, book some profit, and (where possible) to get a bit of delta adjustment where I need it. (Here, I pick up a smidge of needed long delta by closing this out, since price of the underlying has moved to the call side of the pairing). This also has the side benefit of allowing me to recenter a setup in the underlying if I want to and/or frees up buying power to make an adjustment trade if necessary.
Ironcondor
CLOSING: SPY DEC 21ST 243/247/286/289 IRON CONDOR... for a .93/contract debit (.36 profit/contract).
Comments: Mixing and matching profitable put side with profitable call side of a number of iron condors I've layered on over the past several weeks. I'm not getting much out of this, since I was looking for between .50 and .60/contract profit per "pair.". However, with elections around the corner, I'm just taking off a little risk, as well as a smidge of short delta that was in this particular pairing.
OPENING: AMD 17/20/27.5/30.5 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.06/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $106/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $194/contract
Break Evens: 18.94/28.56 (wide of expected move)
Delta: -1.18
Theta: 2.97
Notes: High rank/implied at 85/87 and announcing earnings after market close. Looking for an inzee outzee quickee dirtee, hopefully for 50% max. Two other naked possibilities: the November 16th 23.5 short straddle (paying 4.61; 1.15 profit at 25% max) or the November 16th 20/27.5 short strangle (paying 1.81; .90 profit at 50% max).
CLOSING: SPY DEC 21ST 252/256/292/296 IRON CONDOR... for a .96/contract debit (.40/$40 profit per contract).
Notes: Mixing and matching profitable put side with profitable call side of iron condors I've put on over the past few weeks, while freeing up buying power for further adjustments or other trades without affecting my SPY net delta much. The scratch point of the entire SPY position was 5.87/contract and is now 5.87 (credit) minus .96 (debit) or 4.91 (credit) with the net delta of the December SPY at -1.94/contract.
OPENING: SPY DEC 16TH 255/258/286/289 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.11/contract credit.
Notes: Another adjustment trade to keep my overall SPY position neutral to slightly short. Picking up -2.38 delta/contract. My scratch point for my SPY positions as a group is 4.35/contract. I'll look to mix and match profitable short call/short put sides to peel off units going forward and/or adjust as net delta of the position dictates.
OPENING: XOP DEC 21ST 32/35/41/45 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.10/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.10 ($110)/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 1.90 ($190)/contract
Break Evens: 33.90/42.10
Delta: -1.25
Theta: 1.08
Notes: Going Plain Jane, delta neutral iron condor (although you can certainly short strangle it, too) in relatively high implied (rank 62/implied 32. Will look to take profit at 50% max.
OPENING: SPY DEC 21ST 253/257/290/294 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.30/contract credit.
Layering on some additional slightly short delta SPY to my existing December setup to bring the entire position back to neutral.
Notes: In delta balancing existing setups, you have several basic options: (a) roll the untested side toward current price on significant decrease in value to reduce net position delta;* (b) add units to the side on which delta is needed (i.e., short puts/short put verticals if long delta is required; short calls/short call verticals if short delta is required); or (c) layer on a slightly skewed oppositional setup (short strangle/iron condor, short straddle/iron fly) that has the delta you need to balance the setup out or reduce directional delta.
Here, I'm opting for an oppositional setup, since it brings in more credit than just adding units to one side.
After layering on this additional position to what I've already got on out in December (see Post Below), I proceed to treat both trades as a single position for scratch point/take profit purposes: the scratch point of the original SPY iron condor was 1.94; with this position's credit of 1.30, the scratch point for the entire ball of wax is 3.24.
* -- I tend to roll at 50% max for the side and attempt to reduce position net delta by at least half.
OPENING: SPY DEC 21ST 271/275/300/304 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.33/contract credit.
Going with some plain Jane, fairly delta neutral premium selling here out in the December cycle.
A little early for December (73 days 'til expiration), but November's gone a little bit too short (38 days 'til).
Will adjust when a wing's at 50% max and shoot to take the whole thing off at 50% max ... .
TRADE IDEA: IWM NOV 16TH 153/157/2X170/2X172 IRON CONDORAdding some nondirectional broad market in the November cycle on this uptick in volatility (IWM 30-day currently at 18.998%). QQQ has the higher background implied (20.778%), but I've already got some QQQ on.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.38 at the mid price.
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 2.62/contract
Break Evens: 155.62/170.69
Theta: 1.92
Delta: -7.34
Notes: It may require some minor adjustment at open, depending on what futures do in the overnight, and the underlying does in pre-market ... .
OPENING: QQQ NOV 16TH 166/170/2X193/2X195 IRON CONDORfor a 1.23/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $123/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $277/contract
Break Evens: 168.77/193.61
Delta: -4.36
Theta: 1.30
Notes: Going out to the November monthly to sell some premium in the highest implied volatility broad market instrument out of IWM, SPY, and QQQ. Collecting a dime short of one-third the width of the widest wing (4-wide).
OPENING: QQQ SEPT 28TH 170/174/2X188/2X190 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.34/contract credit.
Max Profit: $134/contract
Max Loss: $266/contract
Break Evens: 172.66/188.67
Delta: -5.37
Theta: 1.83
Notes: A slight variation on a delta-based setup to accommodate skew. Instead of selling equally valued delta on both the put and call sides, I'm selling strikes that are equidistant from current price, but doubling up a narrower call side spread. The risk of the setup is attributable to the widest wing, so the call side risk is 2 x a 2-wide (minus the credit received) or 4.00 minus the credit received -- the same as that of the put side (a 4-wide or 4.00 minus the credit received). Going out the standard 45 days until expiration, collecting one-third the width of the widest wing, and looking to manage at 50% max.
XOP MAY 18TH 30/32/39/41 IRON CONDOR (LATE POST)I apparently neglected to post this when I put it on back on March 27th in the kid's small account, and am doing so here primarily to keep track of cost basis.
Here's the blow by blow:
On March 27th, I opened this trade for a .50/contract credit.
On April 7th, I closed out the short put side for a .05/contract, with a resulting cost basis of .45/contract. Because I needed some short delta, as well as thinking that oil would come off its highs post-OPEC jawboning, etc., I haven't yet moved to cover the short put side or to roll out the short call side for duration (to the June monthly) and then sell a short put vertical against.
I will look at doing that next week ... .
OPENING: NFLX MAY 18TH 300/305/365/370 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.66/contract credit (33% of the width of the wings) on post-earnings high implied volatility (38.3%).
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 60%
Max Profit: $166/contract
Max Loss: $334/contract
Break Evens: 303.34/366.66
Theta: 3.31
Delta: -.99
Notes: Will look to take profit at 50% max.
OPENING: EWZ MAY 18TH 39/41/48/50 IRON CONDOR... for a .62/contract credit.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 57%
Max Profit: $62/contract
Max Loss: $139/contract
Break Evens: 40.39/48.61
Variants:
May 18th 41/48 short strangle, 1.30/contract at the mid; break evens at 39.70/49.30.
May 18th 38/41/48/51 iron condor; .75/contract at the mid; break evens at 40.25/48.75.
Notes: With background implied remaining fairly high (33.4%), I'm going small with this defined risk setup in the kid's small account, but using the short strangle variant in mine. Looking to take profit on both the iron condor and the short strangle at 50% max.
Open EEM skewed IronCondor/capped lizard Mar16www.tradingview.com
Caught my notice as one of many stocks that popped back to begin filling yesterday's gap. The longer term trend is up.
Schaff Trend Cycle (bottom panel indicator - this is a modification of LazyBear's @LazyBear, customized line color for up/down direction and background color for Elder Ray EFI grn/red above below zero and dark green/red rising or falling) anyhow this shows cycle down from drop but background shows bounce and continuance of uptrend (to me).
Options are liquid so little cost to getting in and out of the position.
Cost: 78 credit/contract
Max P/L 78/222 upside minimum 28 profit, no loss
Spot when opened 51.11
IV rank percentile 99
Theta .44
Delta 15.9
POP: probability of making .01 or more on the trade 69%
Profit target 25. The bet here is that EEM will continue to rise, that the high IV will collapse decreasing debit/increasing profit to close the position. If it does this quickly I will grab the money and remove the risk quickly. If it drifts up, Theta decay and price will improve the position. It has some room to drift down and minimum movement would keep it in the higher profit zone (between the short strikes). This is more of a directional trade with a defined max loss so if it goes against me quickly to max loss there will be nothing to lose in waiting for it to come back. If it charges down to breakeven I will review my sentiment and if I think it has whiplashed on me to reverse down again I may close it near scratch.
So I posted the trade and now am "hung by the tongue" in that we will all see if this is profitable or not. Fun!
ROKU - Iron Condor, short 3 day expirationROKU options are selling at a very high premium (time value) due to very high IV%. To take advantage of the high premium I opened an Iron Condor. I chose an iron condor because I don't have a strong bias (bull/bear). This strategy provides a little more cushion whether it moves one direction or the other. I would have chosen a credit spread strategy if I did have a strong bias.
3 Days till expiration. 56/66 Calls & 45/35 Puts. Premium $3.58 per spread.
ROKU price at order execution $50.02
Break even $59.58 & 41.42
GREEKS
D G T V
Net Spread: .0034 .0400 -.0514 .0048
IV% on each contract is between 219% - 260% (versus 61%)
Iron Condor on FacebookWith a small increase in the VIX today and FB still around 50 IV rank I added this trade to my FB positions to slowly start to have trades expiring in oct.
The trade:
Expiration date - Oct 20, 2017
Long 150 Put
Short 155 Put
Short 185 Call
Long 190 Call
Price: $1.10
Max loss: $390
Probability of profit 67%
OPENING TWTR DEC 15TH 17/19/23/25 IRON CONDOR... for a .49/contract credit (late post).
Finally catching up with some of last week's trades ... .
Relatively high implied volatility after earnings (currently at 44%), going small, defined, since I'd rather keep dry powder on for something sexier (which there hasn't been much of here).
Will shoot for 50% max on this little fella ... .
OPENING: XOP DEC 15TH 32/34/40/42 IRON CONDOR... for a .49 ($49)/contract credit.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 63%
Max Profit: $49/contract
Max Loss: $151/contract
Breakevens: 33.51/40.49
Delta: 1.64
Theta: .99
Notes: Going small, defined, neutral assumption here, since the implied volatility isn't as high as I would like. Shooting for 50% max ... . The full on naked 34/40 in the same expiry currently goes for .82.
OPENING: EWZ DEC 15TH 33.5/35.5/44/46 IRON CONDOR (LATE POST)... for a .38/contract credit.
With an implied volatility of 31.6, this is one of the higher volatility exchange traded funds. Going small.
For a two-wide, this credit is less than compelling; I usually want to see 1/3rd the width of the wings out of these. Thinking of it more as an "engagement trade" than anything else, as I wait for some volatility to seep back into the market ... .
Monthly Income Series IWMOur IWM has been sideway for many months.
In view of market situation currently, we should have a last wave of uptrend and the heading south.
So for now, I will still stand my view for IWM as slight uptrend will stronger sideway for short term view.
From the chart, as usual i will most based on my Ta analysis, by drawing channel trend line, as well as Fib Retracement
which has proven it work for IWM for the past 4-5 months.
While i am waiting my previous monthly income series analysis on IWM, to expect IWM July options to expire OTM in 2 weeks time,
with next monthly options August options DTE in around 40 days time, i would like to enter my trade on IC on IWM on below:
STO Bear Call Spread 145/147
STO Bull Put Spread 135/133
forming IronCondor for Aug options @ $0.64, with BPE a contract of $141 with DTE 42 at the point enter,
it worked out a good ROI per day.