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Ironcondor

TRADE IDEA: QQQ AUG 18TH 127/130/145/147 IRON CONDORThe Q's have the highest implied volatility rank among the four major index exchange traded funds. That being said, I generally look to bring in one-third the width of the widest wing with these with the short options set up at the 20 delta, and I'm not getting that here, so it's less than ideal ... . The metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% Max Profit: $69/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $231/contract Break Evens: 129.31/145.69 Theta: .82 Delta: -1.78 Notes: Look to manage at 50% max. For an undefined risk alternative, go with the 130/145 short strangle, which pays 1.86 at the mid and has a probability of profit of 68%, BE's at 128.14/146.86, theta of 3.84, and a delta of 1.89.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: COST JULY 21ST 155/158/175/178 IRON CONDORAfter news of AMZN's acquisition of WFM, COST's implied volatility has popped here, with its implied volatility rank ramping up to the 67th percentile over the preceding 52-week period, and with background implied volatility at 21%, making a premium selling play potentially worthwhile. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $207/contract Break Evens: 157.07/175.93 Theta: 1.96 Delta: -2.47 As an undefined risk alternative, the July 21st 150/175 short strangle is going for 2.35 at the mid with a probability of profit of 71%, BE's at 155.65/177.35, theta 8.85, delta -3.91. Notes: Because I could potentially see this snapping back to the upside, you may want to skew the setup to the call side, narrow the call side spread to reduce call side risk, or otherwise put on a limited upside risk play (e.g., July 21st 160/173/175 Jade Lizard, 1.95 credit at the mid, BE's at 158.05/174.95). With the Jade Lizard, upside risk is limited to .05 (the width of the call side spread (2.00) minus the credit received (1.95) ... .
NASDAQ:COST
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: EWZ JULY 21ST 26/28/38.5/40.5 IRON CONDOR... for a .61 credit. With EWZ caving heftily here and implied volatility popping, I'm going back to the Brazilian well narrow and small, since I can foresee this having some volatility in it for a bit, in which case I may want to add to the position. Metrics: POP%: 63% Max Profit: $61/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $139/contract BE's: 27.39/39.11 Theta: .69 Delta: .7 Notes: I'll look to take this off at 50% max ... .
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
Monthly Income Series - IWM Iron CondorIWM Last month our Iron Condor has expired worthless after the repair and gain the full profit for the 3rd consecutive month, except with repaired commission cost. This month, IWm again looks to be positioned nicely in side way, but volatility is higher this time. So trade with care, and prepare to repair anytime, do ensure we only trade up to 10% of our margin and leave with lenty of spare cash for repair. This month i would like to go for Iron Condor 143/145 Call 131/129 Put for premium around $0.36 for options DTE in 25 days. DYODD.
AMEX:IWM
by DavidCkChoo
OPENING: IWM JUNE 16TH 128/131/141/142 "DOUBLE DOUBLE"This is basically an iron condor variation where you double up the number of contracts on the call side while going narrower with the call side spread. Due to "the math" of that, there is no additional buying power effect, but you collect some additional credit ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 57% Max Profit: $76/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $224/contract Theta: 1.59 Delta: -.68 Notes: Will look to take off at 50% max.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
Sell TGT Iron Condor May 52.5/47.5P, 58.5/62.5CTGT is having earning call on May 17, the same day as the May option expiration. I expect TGT will go side way before then. So I setup the Iron Condor to catch some money before then. Aim to close the position before May 17th. drive.google.com Positoin: Put: -1x52.5/1x47.5 Call: -1*58.5/1x62.5 Breakeven: 51.67 to 59.33 PoP: 72% Premium: 0.8$ Target Goal: 0.4$ (50% of the premium). This position is to be closed before May 17th, the earning date.
NYSE:TGT
by rockgy
Iron condor on XLPWith volatility this low I am looking for trades with IV percentile in the last 6months of above 25. XLP have an IV Rank of 14.5 which is low, but IV percentile of 33.5 in the last 6 months (which would meet with my criteria). I am placing an skewed Iron Condor, betting that it will stay within the expected move with a little skewed to the downside thinking that it might want to attack the 200 EMA. I did a ratio of 3 calls spreads for every 2 put spreads. The trade: 56/58 (2xCall spread) 54/51 (3xPut spread) 51% POP 1.61 credit per contract. Our break evens are at 53.22 and 56.51 Target is 50% of credit received.
AMEX:XLP
by AlexanderGotay
NVDA MAY 19th 94.5/95.5/110/113 IRON CONDOR (PRELIM)A high implied vol rank/implied vol, earnings volatility contraction play with no downside risk ... Metrics: POP%: 72% Max Profit: $101/contract Max Loss/BPE: $199/contract BE at 111.01 (no downside risk). Notes: A good finish remains between the short strikes (95.5/113). Attempting to avoid getting "AMD'd" here ... . Will look to take profit at 50% max. I'm describing it as "preliminary," since price may move around a bit during tomorrow's NY sesh requiring slight adjustments to the setup.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by NaughtyPines
Double double on SPYSPY was up .70% and I expect a pull back to the 200 EMA eventually. In the meantime I wanted to make a neutral to bearish trade using a ratio iron condor or what is recently called by the tastytrade guys a "Double double". I am selling the -240/+243 -230/+223 Iron condor for $2.60. Using the SPY skew of the calls and puts I can sell twice as many of the credit spreads (240/243) using less buying power and increasing my credit received. With 52 days to expiration my break evens are: 242.60 227.40 Giving me a 66% probability of profit if I buy it back at 50%.
AMEX:SPY
by AlexanderGotay
2
JUNE SPY CORE POSITIONThis post collates all my current SPY positions in the June expiry including (a) the legs noted as 2x (which were from a setup rolled out to avoid call-side assignment risk around March ex-divvy); (b) a Jade Lizard addition that was intended to add in long delta with no upside risk; and (c) my most current short put vertical credit spread, which was also intended to add in long delta to move the net delta of the entire she-bang back to neutral/slightly short (as of Friday market close, the net delta of the SPY position is -4.51). Its scratch point is 5.40.* Naturally, it looks like something of a mess in the manner in which it is graphically depicted, but there is a method to the madness. First, the notion is keep the entire setup at near net delta neutral to slightly short from this point until about 25 DTE, after which I generally don't tweak or add to the position, since there is generally too little time for it to be worthwhile after that point. This "tweakage" can be done in a variety of ways -- adding in short put verts/naked short puts for long delta, short call verts/naked short calls for short, skewed iron condors/short strangles that are slightly one way or the other, or by peeling off sides to get the same result. As you can see, however, things can get quite crowded where you may want to set up your tent, so it sometimes requires a little bit of creativity and fiddling to squeeze setups in where you want them (e.g., going with a 2x 2-wide versus a 1 x 4 wide or vice versa). As time progresses, you will want to start peeling stuff off, particularly as it becomes worthless (and therefore of little protective use). As you can see, rolling things in toward current price becomes problematic with such an arrangement, because you'll potentially be stepping on other legs, and you don't want to inadvertently close legs out by rolling. You can either peel off things as they were originally set up or look to mix and match individual legs. For example, I could peel off the 222/228 short put vert, the 222/226 short put vertical, or the 225/226 short put vertical to subtract long delta from the setup, that is, assuming it was profitable to do so. Similarly, I can mix and match sides that were put on at different times: for example, pulling off the 2x 238/242 short call vert with the 222/226 and 225/228 short put verts, again assuming that was profitable. Alternatively, I can treat the entire position as a single unit and look to take everything off at the same time when it becomes profitable to do so. * -- I previously calculated the scratch point for the entire position at 3.46, overlooking the fact that the rolled out 231/234/238/242 had twice as many contracts as the other legs.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
TWO EWY (S. KOREA ETF) TRADE IDEASI haven't traded this particular instrument before. For obvious reasons, now seems like a perfect time. The first of the two trades is a short strangle, with the shorts set up at the ~30 delta strike: JUNE 16TH 60/65 SHORT STRANGLE POP%: 59% Max Profit: $140/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Evens: 58.60/65.82 Theta: 3.01 Delta: .78 The second's a defined risk trade using the same strikes for the short options as used in the short strangle: June 16th 57/60/65/68 Iron Condor POP%: 52% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $209/contract Break Evens: 59.09/65.91 Theta: 1.19 Delta: -4.16 Notes: I would look to manage either of these at 50% max. I considered one additional setup: a Reverse Jade Lizard: June 16th 59/60/64, where the 59/60 is a short put vertical and the 64, a naked short call. This yields a setup with a 70% pop, a max profit of 1.14/contract, a break even at 65.14, and no downside risk (since the credit received for the short call is > the max loss of the short put vert).
AMEX:EWY
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: SPY JUNE 16 222/226/240/241 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.00 credit. I'm doing this little fella as an adjustment trade to pick up a little long delta in a current SPY position. However, it could also be a fairly decent standalone trade if you're slightly bullish to neutral on SPY above 226. The additional feature of the setup is the lack of call side risk on setup because the credit received equals the max loss that could be experienced if the call side is broken -- 1.00, the width of the call side spread. Put another way, max loss occurs only if the downside break even is broken; if the upside break even is broken at 241, you basically make nothing on the trade.* Metrics: Max Profit: $100/contract Max Loss: $300/contract Break Evens: 225/241 Theta: .50 Delta: 2.55 Notes: As a standalone trade, I would look to manage the setup at 50% max. * -- Both of these scenarios contemplate you're doing absolutely nothing during the life of the setup, such as rolling the untested side toward current price.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
Iron Condor $UAL (10 Days to Exp.)Hey Traders, I'm mostly testing out neutral strategies with small positions to add to a separate portfolio dedicated to market neutral strategies. The position is as follows. Option Strategy: Iron Condor Position Expiration: 21 APR 17 (Red Vertical Line / 10 Days to Exp -1.05% .) Total Legs: 4 Total Contracts held: 16 Position Breakeven Points: $63.74 / $71.26 Upper Leg: - Short (4) $71 Strike Calls - Long (4) $71.5 Strike Calls Lower Leg: - Short (4) $64 Strike Puts - Long (4) $63.5 Strike Puts Max Loss: $124.00 Max Win: $74.00 ROI: 59.67% Trade Management: Holding to expiration for premium / max loss. Reason for such management is the exceptional return on capital invested along with the fact that the expiration crosses over earnings for which I don't expect a wild move. In the small case there is a wild move then loss is mitigated and capped at a set rate that I'm willing to accept.
U
by Daniel.B
5
TRADE IDEA: KMX APRIL 21ST 50/52.5/60/62.5 IRON CONDORKMX announces earnings on 4/6 before market open, so look to put on a play before tomorrow's New York close to get in on a volatility contraction play (six month implied volatility percentile is around 100, with background implied at 47). Here's the metrics for this puppy: Probability of Profit: 50% Max Profit: $113/contract Max Loss/BP effect: $137/contract Break Evens: 51.37/61.13 Theta: 2.90 Delta: .45 (neutral) Notes: Here, I've gone in a little bit tighter (around 30 delta for the shorts) to bring in a little more credit and am keeping the wings somewhat tight because, well, it's a piece of crap with monthlies only, so I don't want to hang a lot of BP out there if it causes me trouble because I'll have to roll from month to month.
NYSE:KMX
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: NKE MARCH 31ST 54.5/58.5/59/63 IRON CONDOR... for a 2.23 credit. (Earnings volatility contraction play). Metrics: Probability of Profit: Coin Flip Max Profit: $223/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $177/contract Break Evens: 56.27/61.23 Notes: I filled this at open, but price has moved down somewhat, so you may want to adjust the setup by a half strike or so. In any event, this thing's so narrow, that's it's almost an iron fly, so I'll look to manage at 25% of max profit.
NYSE:NKE
by NaughtyPines