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Ironcondor

XOP MAY 18TH 30/32/39/41 IRON CONDOR (LATE POST)I apparently neglected to post this when I put it on back on March 27th in the kid's small account, and am doing so here primarily to keep track of cost basis. Here's the blow by blow: On March 27th, I opened this trade for a .50/contract credit. On April 7th, I closed out the short put side for a .05/contract, with a resulting cost basis of .45/contract. Because I needed some short delta, as well as thinking that oil would come off its highs post-OPEC jawboning, etc., I haven't yet moved to cover the short put side or to roll out the short call side for duration (to the June monthly) and then sell a short put vertical against. I will look at doing that next week ... .
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: EWZ MAY 18TH 39/41/48/50 IRON CONDOR... for a .62/contract credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 57% Max Profit: $62/contract Max Loss: $139/contract Break Evens: 40.39/48.61 Variants: May 18th 41/48 short strangle, 1.30/contract at the mid; break evens at 39.70/49.30. May 18th 38/41/48/51 iron condor; .75/contract at the mid; break evens at 40.25/48.75. Notes: With background implied remaining fairly high (33.4%), I'm going small with this defined risk setup in the kid's small account, but using the short strangle variant in mine. Looking to take profit on both the iron condor and the short strangle at 50% max.
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
Open EEM skewed IronCondor/capped lizard Mar16www.tradingview.com Caught my notice as one of many stocks that popped back to begin filling yesterday's gap. The longer term trend is up. Schaff Trend Cycle (bottom panel indicator - this is a modification of LazyBear's @LazyBear, customized line color for up/down direction and background color for Elder Ray EFI grn/red above below zero and dark green/red rising or falling) anyhow this shows cycle down from drop but background shows bounce and continuance of uptrend (to me). Options are liquid so little cost to getting in and out of the position. Cost: 78 credit/contract Max P/L 78/222 upside minimum 28 profit, no loss Spot when opened 51.11 IV rank percentile 99 Theta .44 Delta 15.9 POP: probability of making .01 or more on the trade 69% Profit target 25. The bet here is that EEM will continue to rise, that the high IV will collapse decreasing debit/increasing profit to close the position. If it does this quickly I will grab the money and remove the risk quickly. If it drifts up, Theta decay and price will improve the position. It has some room to drift down and minimum movement would keep it in the higher profit zone (between the short strikes). This is more of a directional trade with a defined max loss so if it goes against me quickly to max loss there will be nothing to lose in waiting for it to come back. If it charges down to breakeven I will review my sentiment and if I think it has whiplashed on me to reverse down again I may close it near scratch. So I posted the trade and now am "hung by the tongue" in that we will all see if this is profitable or not. Fun!
AMEX:EEMLong
by Tom1trader
ROKU - Iron Condor, short 3 day expirationROKU options are selling at a very high premium (time value) due to very high IV%. To take advantage of the high premium I opened an Iron Condor. I chose an iron condor because I don't have a strong bias (bull/bear). This strategy provides a little more cushion whether it moves one direction or the other. I would have chosen a credit spread strategy if I did have a strong bias. 3 Days till expiration. 56/66 Calls & 45/35 Puts. Premium $3.58 per spread. ROKU price at order execution $50.02 Break even $59.58 & 41.42 GREEKS D G T V Net Spread: .0034 .0400 -.0514 .0048 IV% on each contract is between 219% - 260% (versus 61%)
NASDAQ:ROKU
by JLJ002500
3
Monthly Income Series IWMOur IWM has been sideway for many months. In view of market situation currently, we should have a last wave of uptrend and the heading south. So for now, I will still stand my view for IWM as slight uptrend will stronger sideway for short term view. From the chart, as usual i will most based on my Ta analysis, by drawing channel trend line, as well as Fib Retracement which has proven it work for IWM for the past 4-5 months. While i am waiting my previous monthly income series analysis on IWM, to expect IWM July options to expire OTM in 2 weeks time, with next monthly options August options DTE in around 40 days time, i would like to enter my trade on IC on IWM on below: STO Bear Call Spread 145/147 STO Bull Put Spread 135/133 forming IronCondor for Aug options @ $0.64, with BPE a contract of $141 with DTE 42 at the point enter, it worked out a good ROI per day.
AMEX:IWM
by DavidCkChoo
OPENING: SPY SEPT 1ST 238/241/249/251 IRON CONDOR... for a .95 credit. I really wanted to go with the highest implied volatility broad index exchange-traded fund (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA), 45 days until expiration, but the bid/asks were wide on both IWM and QQQ in the Sept 1st expiry, so went with SPY instead, which had a much tighter bid/ask. The short options here are set up around the 30 delta, so I'm somewhat surprised at the low probability of profit metric, which ordinarily would be around 50% ... . Will look to take profit at 50% max. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 43% Max Profit: $95/contract Max Loss: $205/contract Break Evens: 240.05/249.95 Delta: -2.57 Theta: .88
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: IBM JULY 28TH 145/148/160/162.5 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.10 credit. It announces earnings today after market close. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 54% Max Profit: $110/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $190/contract Break Evens: 146.90/161.10 (Wide of expected move, both sides) Delta: .37 Theta: 6.08 Notes: The strikes were pesky on the call side. It was either go five-wide or 2 1/2 wide on the call side. I opted for going narrower, as long as I could keep my break evens outside the expected move. Will look to take profit at 50% max.
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
Iron Condor on KREEntered an Iron Condor in KRE (Regional Bank ETF) on June 26th to try to strangle the price between 50.00 and 56.00 for 71 cents in credit. Break even in the trade is below 49.29 and on the high side above 56.71. Two days after the trade the Fed came out passing all banks that were involved in stress tests giving them a green light to add to dividends and start buy backs. The news gaped KRE up very close to the sold call side and has fallen since into a more comfortable range. Plenty of time for this Option to play out and I will be looking to take 50% ($0.355) of the Premium as soon as possible. Original assumption was neutral, now neutral with a co-mingling of bearishness.
AMEX:KRE
by Turbo_Tech
1
TRADE IDEA: QQQ AUG 18TH 127/130/145/147 IRON CONDORThe Q's have the highest implied volatility rank among the four major index exchange traded funds. That being said, I generally look to bring in one-third the width of the widest wing with these with the short options set up at the 20 delta, and I'm not getting that here, so it's less than ideal ... . The metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% Max Profit: $69/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $231/contract Break Evens: 129.31/145.69 Theta: .82 Delta: -1.78 Notes: Look to manage at 50% max. For an undefined risk alternative, go with the 130/145 short strangle, which pays 1.86 at the mid and has a probability of profit of 68%, BE's at 128.14/146.86, theta of 3.84, and a delta of 1.89.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: COST JULY 21ST 155/158/175/178 IRON CONDORAfter news of AMZN's acquisition of WFM, COST's implied volatility has popped here, with its implied volatility rank ramping up to the 67th percentile over the preceding 52-week period, and with background implied volatility at 21%, making a premium selling play potentially worthwhile. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $207/contract Break Evens: 157.07/175.93 Theta: 1.96 Delta: -2.47 As an undefined risk alternative, the July 21st 150/175 short strangle is going for 2.35 at the mid with a probability of profit of 71%, BE's at 155.65/177.35, theta 8.85, delta -3.91. Notes: Because I could potentially see this snapping back to the upside, you may want to skew the setup to the call side, narrow the call side spread to reduce call side risk, or otherwise put on a limited upside risk play (e.g., July 21st 160/173/175 Jade Lizard, 1.95 credit at the mid, BE's at 158.05/174.95). With the Jade Lizard, upside risk is limited to .05 (the width of the call side spread (2.00) minus the credit received (1.95) ... .
NASDAQ:COST
by NaughtyPines