Get started

Ironcondor

NVDA MAY 19th 94.5/95.5/110/113 IRON CONDOR (PRELIM)A high implied vol rank/implied vol, earnings volatility contraction play with no downside risk ... Metrics: POP%: 72% Max Profit: $101/contract Max Loss/BPE: $199/contract BE at 111.01 (no downside risk). Notes: A good finish remains between the short strikes (95.5/113). Attempting to avoid getting "AMD'd" here ... . Will look to take profit at 50% max. I'm describing it as "preliminary," since price may move around a bit during tomorrow's NY sesh requiring slight adjustments to the setup.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by NaughtyPines
Double double on SPYSPY was up .70% and I expect a pull back to the 200 EMA eventually. In the meantime I wanted to make a neutral to bearish trade using a ratio iron condor or what is recently called by the tastytrade guys a "Double double". I am selling the -240/+243 -230/+223 Iron condor for $2.60. Using the SPY skew of the calls and puts I can sell twice as many of the credit spreads (240/243) using less buying power and increasing my credit received. With 52 days to expiration my break evens are: 242.60 227.40 Giving me a 66% probability of profit if I buy it back at 50%.
AMEX:SPY
by AlexanderGotay
2
JUNE SPY CORE POSITIONThis post collates all my current SPY positions in the June expiry including (a) the legs noted as 2x (which were from a setup rolled out to avoid call-side assignment risk around March ex-divvy); (b) a Jade Lizard addition that was intended to add in long delta with no upside risk; and (c) my most current short put vertical credit spread, which was also intended to add in long delta to move the net delta of the entire she-bang back to neutral/slightly short (as of Friday market close, the net delta of the SPY position is -4.51). Its scratch point is 5.40.* Naturally, it looks like something of a mess in the manner in which it is graphically depicted, but there is a method to the madness. First, the notion is keep the entire setup at near net delta neutral to slightly short from this point until about 25 DTE, after which I generally don't tweak or add to the position, since there is generally too little time for it to be worthwhile after that point. This "tweakage" can be done in a variety of ways -- adding in short put verts/naked short puts for long delta, short call verts/naked short calls for short, skewed iron condors/short strangles that are slightly one way or the other, or by peeling off sides to get the same result. As you can see, however, things can get quite crowded where you may want to set up your tent, so it sometimes requires a little bit of creativity and fiddling to squeeze setups in where you want them (e.g., going with a 2x 2-wide versus a 1 x 4 wide or vice versa). As time progresses, you will want to start peeling stuff off, particularly as it becomes worthless (and therefore of little protective use). As you can see, rolling things in toward current price becomes problematic with such an arrangement, because you'll potentially be stepping on other legs, and you don't want to inadvertently close legs out by rolling. You can either peel off things as they were originally set up or look to mix and match individual legs. For example, I could peel off the 222/228 short put vert, the 222/226 short put vertical, or the 225/226 short put vertical to subtract long delta from the setup, that is, assuming it was profitable to do so. Similarly, I can mix and match sides that were put on at different times: for example, pulling off the 2x 238/242 short call vert with the 222/226 and 225/228 short put verts, again assuming that was profitable. Alternatively, I can treat the entire position as a single unit and look to take everything off at the same time when it becomes profitable to do so. * -- I previously calculated the scratch point for the entire position at 3.46, overlooking the fact that the rolled out 231/234/238/242 had twice as many contracts as the other legs.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
TWO EWY (S. KOREA ETF) TRADE IDEASI haven't traded this particular instrument before. For obvious reasons, now seems like a perfect time. The first of the two trades is a short strangle, with the shorts set up at the ~30 delta strike: JUNE 16TH 60/65 SHORT STRANGLE POP%: 59% Max Profit: $140/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Evens: 58.60/65.82 Theta: 3.01 Delta: .78 The second's a defined risk trade using the same strikes for the short options as used in the short strangle: June 16th 57/60/65/68 Iron Condor POP%: 52% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $209/contract Break Evens: 59.09/65.91 Theta: 1.19 Delta: -4.16 Notes: I would look to manage either of these at 50% max. I considered one additional setup: a Reverse Jade Lizard: June 16th 59/60/64, where the 59/60 is a short put vertical and the 64, a naked short call. This yields a setup with a 70% pop, a max profit of 1.14/contract, a break even at 65.14, and no downside risk (since the credit received for the short call is > the max loss of the short put vert).
AMEX:EWY
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: SPY JUNE 16 222/226/240/241 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.00 credit. I'm doing this little fella as an adjustment trade to pick up a little long delta in a current SPY position. However, it could also be a fairly decent standalone trade if you're slightly bullish to neutral on SPY above 226. The additional feature of the setup is the lack of call side risk on setup because the credit received equals the max loss that could be experienced if the call side is broken -- 1.00, the width of the call side spread. Put another way, max loss occurs only if the downside break even is broken; if the upside break even is broken at 241, you basically make nothing on the trade.* Metrics: Max Profit: $100/contract Max Loss: $300/contract Break Evens: 225/241 Theta: .50 Delta: 2.55 Notes: As a standalone trade, I would look to manage the setup at 50% max. * -- Both of these scenarios contemplate you're doing absolutely nothing during the life of the setup, such as rolling the untested side toward current price.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
Iron Condor $UAL (10 Days to Exp.)Hey Traders, I'm mostly testing out neutral strategies with small positions to add to a separate portfolio dedicated to market neutral strategies. The position is as follows. Option Strategy: Iron Condor Position Expiration: 21 APR 17 (Red Vertical Line / 10 Days to Exp -1.05% .) Total Legs: 4 Total Contracts held: 16 Position Breakeven Points: $63.74 / $71.26 Upper Leg: - Short (4) $71 Strike Calls - Long (4) $71.5 Strike Calls Lower Leg: - Short (4) $64 Strike Puts - Long (4) $63.5 Strike Puts Max Loss: $124.00 Max Win: $74.00 ROI: 59.67% Trade Management: Holding to expiration for premium / max loss. Reason for such management is the exceptional return on capital invested along with the fact that the expiration crosses over earnings for which I don't expect a wild move. In the small case there is a wild move then loss is mitigated and capped at a set rate that I'm willing to accept.
U
by Daniel.B
5
TRADE IDEA: KMX APRIL 21ST 50/52.5/60/62.5 IRON CONDORKMX announces earnings on 4/6 before market open, so look to put on a play before tomorrow's New York close to get in on a volatility contraction play (six month implied volatility percentile is around 100, with background implied at 47). Here's the metrics for this puppy: Probability of Profit: 50% Max Profit: $113/contract Max Loss/BP effect: $137/contract Break Evens: 51.37/61.13 Theta: 2.90 Delta: .45 (neutral) Notes: Here, I've gone in a little bit tighter (around 30 delta for the shorts) to bring in a little more credit and am keeping the wings somewhat tight because, well, it's a piece of crap with monthlies only, so I don't want to hang a lot of BP out there if it causes me trouble because I'll have to roll from month to month.
NYSE:KMX
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: NKE MARCH 31ST 54.5/58.5/59/63 IRON CONDOR... for a 2.23 credit. (Earnings volatility contraction play). Metrics: Probability of Profit: Coin Flip Max Profit: $223/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $177/contract Break Evens: 56.27/61.23 Notes: I filled this at open, but price has moved down somewhat, so you may want to adjust the setup by a half strike or so. In any event, this thing's so narrow, that's it's almost an iron fly, so I'll look to manage at 25% of max profit.
NYSE:NKE
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: BBY MARCH 10TH 38/42/47.5/51.5 IRON CONDORBBY announces earnings tomorrow before market open, so look to put on something today before market close to take advantage of the ensuing volatility contraction. Implied volatility rank is currently at 92 over the preceding six months, with implied volatility just shy of the 50% mark. I compared and contrasted going with my standard 20-delta iron condor, as well as a full on iron fly. Here, I'm selling the 30-delta shorts as a sort of compromise ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 57% Max Profit: $163/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $239/contract Break Evens: 40.39/49.11 Delta: -2.39 Theta: 9.03
NYSE:BBY
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: ATVI FEB 17TH 34/38.5/40/44.5 IRON CONDORATVI announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the NY sesh ... . Its implied volatility rank is >70%, and its background volatility is on the cusp of 50% ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 50%* Max Profit: $231/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $219/contract Theta: 11.33/contract Delta: -2.47/contract BE's: 36.19/42.31 Notes: * -- The body of this is so narrow such that it's almost an iron fly; hence, the piss poor POP%. I considered doing the standard 20-delta iron condor here, but just couldn't squeeze out enough credit to satisfy me. I'll basically look to treat it like an iron fly, and look to take it off at 25% max profit.
NASDAQ:ATVI
by NaughtyPines
3
OPENING: SPY APRIL 21ST 211/214/234/237 IRON CONDORI tweaked the setup a bit from yesterday, and got filled for a 1.01/contract credit. Metrics (Currently): Max Profit: $106/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $194/contract Break Evens: 212.94/235.06 Delta: -5.65/contract Theta: .71/contract Notes: I probably could have been a touch more patient and gone with a fill slightly above the mid. In any event, shooting for 50% max profit .... . Basically, what I do with these is watch the position's net delta throughout its "life time" and make adjustments if necessary to delta balance (usually, rolling the "untested" side toward the "tested" side). Otherwise, I leave it alone.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
1
TRADE IDEA: GDXJ FEB 17TH 30/36/37/45 IRON CONDOR/FLYThere isn't much non-earnings stuff out there that has both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility. This is one of them. Here I'm going with an extremely narrow iron condor, such that it's almost an iron fly ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $338/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $462/contract Break Evens: 32.62/40.38 Notes: I'm going to treat this as a fly for purposes of take profit and look to get 25% max.
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: SPY APRIL 21ST 209/212/235/238 IRON CONDORGoing out to April for my core index exchange-traded fund position, since volatility "locally" (<45 DTE) blows here. Very close to getting 1/3rd the width of the wings; it'll have to do ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 54% Max Profit: $92/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $208/contract Break Evens: 211.08/235.92 Theta: .67/contract Delta: -5.34/contract Notes: Here, I'm setting up my short options at the 20 delta strike, and the long options three strikes out from those. Looking to manage at 50% max profit.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: SPY MARCH 17TH 205/208/234/237 IRON CONDORI used to do a lot of SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA iron condors as a core position, but temporarily wandered away from those given how sporadic the implied volatility has been in these underlyings. Additionally, they have nonexistent "engagement value" (i.e., they're boring), and I haven't been able to get decent premium out of 45 day setups. Because implied volatility is so low right now, I went out to the first expiry in which I could get something approaching a 1.00 credit for a 3-wide, 20-delta setup. Here, though, I actually went a touch wider (the short options are around the 16 delta strikes). Metrics: Probability of Profit Percentage: 59% P50: 75% Max Profit: $94/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $206/contract Break Evens: 207.06/234.94 As with all of these, I'll look to manage the setup at 50% max profit.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
ROLLING: IWM DEC 16TH 116/119/121/124 IRON CONDOR ... ... to JAN 20TH 119/122/125 iron fly for a .01 net credit. With the short put side of the Dec 16th iron condor nearing worthless and rolling intra-expiry to a fly not particularly productive, I'm rolling this out to the Jan expiry, improving the call side a strike and rolling the put side into a fly, "keeping the dream alive." Rolling is never fun, but it's the nature of the beast if you do not want to just take the loss and walk away. This is one that will probably have to be worked a couple of cycles to get to scratch ... . IWM/RUT has just ripped brutally to the upside ... .
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines