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Ironcondor

OPENING: IWM DEC 9TH 108/111/123.5/126.5 IRON CONDORI slapped this one on rather hastily on Friday with the FBI "reopening-Clinton-email-investigation" volatility pop we had on Friday. Unfortunately, I didn't get what I usually look for in these setups -- a credit of at least 1/3rd the width of the wings (I got it filled for .89 ($89) per contract), but could have done slightly better if I'd not been in such a hurry (looks like you could get .92 ($92) at the mid at the moment) (63% probability of profit; $92/contract max profit; $208/contract max loss/buying power effect; break evens at 110.08/124.42; delta -5.87). I'll look to manage it at 50% max profit.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
4
EARNINGS: JNPR, GRPN, AND TWTR (DIRECTIONAL PLAYS)A couple of other ideas for next week surrounding earnings ... . I like to have a lot of these ideas in the hopper so that I can price setups during regular market hours; some of these aren't as "sexy"/liquid during NY as they appear in off hours. JNPR Dec 2nd 21 short puts; .45 cr at the mid (strike around long-term support). Earnings (10/25). I generally do these earnings plays with a short strangle or iron condor, but just can't get squat out of one of these strats in JNPR, so might as go directional. TWTR Dec 16th 15 short puts; .60 at the mid (I'm more fixated on the 14 strike, since it's around long-term support). If I get a dip post earnings (10/27) that "juices up" the 14, I'll pull the trigger on that. Roll, roll, roll until a buyout rumor or until a buyout actually occurs. If it pops higher, I shrug my shoulders and say, "You doofus. You waited too long." TWTR has good metrics for my standard short strangle or iron condor, but I'm fixated on going directional here with the repetitively resurfacing buy out rumors which may, at some point in time, result in an actual buy out ... . GRPN: Dec 16th 4.5 short puts: .31 at the mid. Earnings 10/26. That shortie is quite close into current price in the scheme of things, so this one would be a crap shoot. Either it takes off to the upside or look forward to getting put the stock at 4.5 (minus the credit you received on the front end). The good thing is that background IV is always fairly high, which would help with selling calls against.
NYSE:JNPR
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: EWW DEC 2ND 43.5/46.5/53.5/56.5 IRON CONDORWith a 52-week implied volatility rank of 100 and an implied volatility of 35, EWW -- the Mexican ETF, beckons for premium selling ... . Here, the iron condor brackets the ZigZag/Donchian channel indicated support/resistance at 48.22 and 54.25 nicely, with break evens for the setup above and below those marks. Here are the metrics for the setup: Probability of Profit: Unavailable* Max Profit: $100/contract Max Loss: $200/contract Break Evens: 45.50/54.50 Notes: * -- Accurate probability of profit metrics are unavailable here in the off hours, probably due to after hours bid/ask in the underlying showing bid 44.12/ask 73.00/last 49.98. Look to manage at 50% max profit.
AMEX:EWW
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK OF 10/16: WHAT I'M LOOKING ATWhile I grind away on various covered call positions (I only have one covered call with an October short call on; the rest are in November or December), I'm looking ahead to some decent earnings for premium selling. Generally, I'm looking for underlyings whose implied volatility is above the 70th percentile for the past 52 weeks and that have background implied volatility of greater than 50% to play for a contraction in volatility immediately following the earnings announcement, with the go-to strategies being short strangles or iron condors. Currently, there are four underlyings with good liquidity options that announce earnings next week and whose volatility is above the 60th percentile for the preceding 52 weeks: IBM, NFLX, UA, and EBAY. I'm screening for >60 implied volatility rank at this point, since volatility in these could still ramp up to my >70%, meaning that they might be worth keeping an eye on. IBM -- Announces 10/17 after market close. The implied volatility rank is now in the 85th percentile. Unfortunately, the background implied volatility is far from being up to snuff at this point for me (28.3%). NFLX -- Announces 10/17 after market close. Implied vol rank: 64th percentile; implied volatility 56.6%. It's very nearly "there". Hopefully implied volatility pops a little more right before earnings. UA -- Announces 10/17 after market close. Rank: 62; implied vol 41.7%. Needs more. EBAY -- Announces 10/19 after market close. Rank: 93; implied vol 41.6%. Needs more. After I look at implied volatility percentile and the background implied volatility, I look at what I can get out of a setup. Generally, I'm shooting for a 1.00 credit for either a short strangle or iron condor, since I look to take these off at 50% max profit (i.e., a .50 ($50)/contract profit). Alternatively, I look at whether a short straddle or iron fly would make sense if the underlying is just too cheap to yield a decent enough credit. With short straddles/iron flies, I generally look to get 2.00 in credit at the outset, since I tend to manage those at 25% max.
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: XLU NOV 18TH 42/47/47/52 IRON "FLY"I haven't done many of these in the past, but I'm beginning to warm up to them, particular with instruments that wouldn't ordinarily yield jack diddly squat with a traditional iron condor setup. Here's how this iron fly compares to an iron condor with similar break evens (it would be a Nov 18th 43/46/48/51):* Probability of Profit: Fly: 52% Condor: 52% Max Profit: Fly: $220 Condor: $120 Max Loss: Fly: $280 Condor: $180 Break Evens: Same Theta: Fly: 1.85/day Condor: 1.32/day Take Profit: Fly: 25% of max ($55 profit) Condor: 50% of max ($60) Spread "Repair": Same for both setups; roll tested side out for duration and, if feasible, away from current price for strike improvement; sell the oppositional spread against for a credit that exceeds what it cost to roll the tested side. Taking into account all credits received and debits paid, shoot to take off the rolled setup at the original take profit. As you can see, the probability of profit is the same for setups with the same or substantial similar break evens, and there's little meaningful difference between the profit I would get if I managed the fly like a short straddle (at 25% max) and the condor like a short strangle (at 50% max) ($55 vs. $60). The research I have looked at for short straddles and short strangles indicates that short straddles reach 25% max in about 30 days on average; short strangles 50% max in about 25 days, www.tastytrade.com (short strangles); tastytradenetwork.squarespace.com (short straddles), which appears to suggest that there is no huge difference in "time to same profit" for the two strategies. (Although those studies involved short straddles and short strangles, you can think of iron flies as "defined risk short straddles" and short strangles as "defined risk short strangles"). Consequently, even though you're receiving greater credit up front for the iron fly, you're probably going to have to wait around for it to reach 25% max profit about the same amount of time as you would an iron fly. The important takeaway here is that -- but for the iron fly -- I would probably not put on a defined risk trade in XLU. The reward is too small; the risk too great in comparison. So, another tool in the tool box for when you just can't enough credit out of a play in an instrument with your "regular" set of tools ... . * -- Generally speaking, I would not set up an iron condor this tightly. I'd set up the short option strikes at the edge of the expected move and then the long options out from there 3-5 strikes (e.g., a Nov 18th 42/45/49/52). However, that particular setup would only yield a .72 ($72) credit/contract, and -- were I to manage that trade for 50% of profit -- would only yield .36 ($36) for a setup with a max loss of 2.28/contract ($228). The type of setup for an instrument with these particular metrics (price, implied volatility, etc.) is generally not worth it, in my opinion.
AMEX:XLU
by NaughtyPines
3
TRADE IDEA: IWM OCT 21ST 112/116/126/130 IRON CONDORWith VIX finally breaking 15 here, I need to strike while the iron is hot ... . The instrument of choice -- IWM, the broad index exchange-traded fund (as compared to SPY, DIA, QQQ) with the highest implied volatility currently ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 52% Max Profit: $127/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $273/contract Break Evens: 114.73/127.27 Notes: Naturally, I'm going to watch the markets early next week to see if there's continuation in this dip. If there is, I may hold off slapping something on for even higher volatility. Heck, I waited eight weeks or so for VIX to break 15; I can wait a little longer if it's going to go higher ... . The natural alternative to this setup would be RUT with similar strikes -- i.e., 1120/1160/1260/1300 ... .
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
BOUGHT TO COVER GLD AUG 19TH 119/124 SHORT PUT VERTContinuing to work the call side up on this setup one strike at a time ... . With 7 DTE, and the put side of this setup nearing worthless, I thought I would close it out here for near max profit, which I did for a .04 ($4)/contract debit. I then proceeded to roll the Aug 19th 121/126 short call vert out to the Sept 2nd expiration, which I did for a small debit (.08/$8 per contract), after which I proceeded to sell the Sept 23rd 119/122 short put vertical against it for a .26 ($26)/contract credit. Unfortunately, I fat fingered the expiration on the short put side (which should have also been Sept 2nd), but I'll probably just leave it there for now (although it's going to bug me a ton every time I look at it). Important thing is: I'm net credit for the roll ... . Naturally, the setup looks like a fierce hot tranny mess here, but I would point out that I'm not necessarily looking for price to finish below 122 by expiration (although I''d love that): I'm looking for price to break the short call side's break even , which is at 126.19. This will, in all likelihood, allow me to roll the short call side again for another credi, narrowing of the spread, and/or improvement of the short call strike, all good things ... .
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
BOUGHT TO COVER RUT AUG 12TH 1170/1180 SHORT PUT VERTWith 7 DTE here and with the short put vert side of this post-Brexit troubled setup nearing worthless, I covered the short put side for a .13 debit ($13). I then rolled the short call side up and out from the Aug 12th 1170/1180 to the Aug 19th 1215/1230 for a .26 ($26)/contract credit and sold the Aug 19th 1190/1200 short put vert against for a 1.02 ($102) credit, so that I'm net credit for the roll. That being said, I'll still need price to move back lower for me to get out of this trade at scratch or better. It's one of a trio of index trades (SPX, NDX, and RUT) put on post-Brexit that are giving me a headache in this up move.
TVC:RUT
by NaughtyPines
BOUGHT TO COVER SPX AUG 19TH 2015/2025 SHORT PUT VERTAlthough I still have a little bit of time on this, it's too little time to effectively roll the short put side up of this setup here without pushing it in too tight to the call side for my taste, so I'm closing the put side out for a .10 ($10)/contract debit here and leaving the call side to dangle for a bit. As always, hope springs eternal that price will break my 2155 short call by expiry so that I can exit the call side. I'll otherwise roll it out as I did this week's SPX setup ... .
TVC:SPX
by NaughtyPines
BOUGHT TO COVER SPX AUG 12TH 2100/2115 SHORT PUT VERTWith 4 DTE left in this troubled post-Brexit setup and the short put side nearing worthless, I bought to cover it for a .15 ($15)/contract debit, rolled out the short call side from the Aug 12th 2145/2160 to the Aug 26th 2155/2175 for a .55 ($55)/contract credit, and sold a 83% probability of profit short put vert against in the same expiry for an additional 1.05 ($105)/contract in credit, leaving me net credit on the roll and with an Aug 26th 2120/2130/2155/2175 iron condor. Still looking to exit this for scratch or better, but have to pour through the chain to calculate my scratch point ... .
TVC:SPX
by NaughtyPines
BOUGHT TO COVER GLD AUG 12TH 117/121 SHORT PUT VERTWith the short put wing of this Brexit wracked setup approaching worthless, I closed it today for a .04 ($4)/contract debit. I then rolled the short call side out to the August 19th expiry to the 121/126 for a .50 ($50)/contract credit and (inadvertently) sold an overlapping short put spread against it for a .25 ($25)/contract credit. (This is what happens when you're busy and do stuff on the phone app ... ). Hopefully, price doesn't whip back into the put side, and I can fix the overlap with the next roll ... .
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
CLOSING: SPX JULY 29 2085/2095 SHORT PUT VERTThis is one of a trio of post-Brexit trades in RUT, NDX, and SPX that I put on post-Brexit and that moved, well, a little more than I'd like ... . Today (with 2 DTE to go), I closed out the put side for a .15 debit, and then rolled the call side from 2115/2125 to the 2145/2160 for a .30 credit and then sold the Aug 12th 2100/2115 for a 1.50 credit (giving me the pictured setup). As with my GLD and RUT trades (and soon, my NDX iron condor if price doesn't peel off substantially from the highs), I'm looking to lather, rinse, repeat with net credit rolls (i.e., credit received exceeds any debit paid for rolling) until I'm able to exit the setup for scratch or better ... . Notes: Some people choose to allow the side approaching worthless to expire that way if there is a "high likelihood" that will occur (there was here with the put side). I generally choose to close it out "just in case" something unexpected occurs ... . It's just not worth the extra $5-$15 you'll make, Weird stuff has been known to happen.
TVC:SPX
by NaughtyPines
CLOSING: GLD JULY 29TH 118.5/121.5 SHORT PUT VERTThis was my only "Bremain" bet trade, and it's taking its sweet time coming off the highs ... . The trade started out as a directional spread -- a short call vertical, that was soon breached post-Brexit. My recollection is that I proceeded to sell a short put vert against the call side (completing an iron condor) to protect the call side from further upmove. Here, I'm closing out that protection at near worthless, rolling out the short call side from 119/122 to 120/124 for a .18 credit and then selling a short put vert against the call side for an additional .28 credit. The resulting setup is basically an iron fly, albeit with the short put above the short call. The perfect outcome would be for the underlying to move right to 120.5 or so at expiry, which is unlikely to occur. Rather, the notion here is to lather, rinse, repeat with the net credit rolling while keeping track of my scratch point to eventually exit the position at scratch or better ... .
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
EARNINGS PLAY: NFLX JULY 29TH 85.5/111 SHORT STRANGLEUnfortunately, the only underlying announcing earnings next week that has sufficient implied volatility to consider selling premium in is NFLX, with an implied volatility of 52%. It announces earnings on Monday after market close, so look to put on a play some time on Monday, preferably right before the NY close. Preliminarily (I'm checking this crap in off hours, so it's rarely spot on), here are the metrics for the two setups I would consider doing: NFLX July 29th 85.5/111 short strangle Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $215/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Evens: 83.35/113.15 NFLX July 29th 81.5/85.5/111/115 iron condor Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $99/contract Max Loss: $301/contract Break Evens: 84.51/111.99 Naturally, strikes may need to be tweaked slighly depending on price movement on Monday.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
ROLLING: NDX/IUXX AUG 5TH 4350/4375 SPV TO 4400/4425Rolling up the put side yet again (I've basically rolled the thing into an "iron butterfly" (filled for a .90 credit ($90)) to defend the call side. I generally don't like to "invert" condors (here, roll the put side beyond the call side), so I'll probably just leave the setup alone running into expiry, but keep an eye on the setup's net delta and make a decision as to whether I want to erect a separate delta hedge (in this case, most likely another short put vertical set up in a separate expiration) to protect the position from further upside and/or mitigate call side loss. Otherwise, I'll just do my usual close out the worthless side, roll out the tested side for minimal strike improvement, and sell a put side against for a credit that exceeds the price to roll the tested side.
NASDAQ:NDX
by NaughtyPines
BOUGHT SPX JULY 22ND SPV TO CLOSE, ROLLED CALL SIDE FOR DURATION1. Closed the July 22nd 2020/2030 short put vertical for a .15 debit, as it's near worthless and done its job. 2. Rolled the July 22nd 2110/2120 call side out a week to the July 29th 2115/2125 and slight strike improvement for a .75 debit. The improvement isn't much, but I like to do these improvements small and over time until I get the required movement to exit the entire setup. 3. Sold the July 29th 2085/2095 short put vert to finance the call side roll for a 1.05 credit. As with my NDX setup, what I need now is some movement back toward the call side to exit the entire setup at or above my "scratch point."
TVC:SPX
by NaughtyPines
3
NOTABLE HIGH IV STOCKS WITH IV > 50%1. P, 79% 2. FCX, 76% 3. X, 75% 4. TWTR, 67% 5. STX, 57% 6. ABX, 56% 7. NFLX, 56% 8 GG, 53% 9. SLW, 52% Naturally, we are coming into earnings season here, so there's a reason that some of these have high IV here (e.g., NFLX announces in a week and a half). Ordinarily, I like IV to be >50% and IVR (current IV's level relative to where it's been for the past 52 weeks to be high, too), but I may not find a great deal of 70%+ IVR plays here with broad market volatility so low (VIX finished the week below 15). Neverthless, it may be worthwhile to churn through this small list for premium selling plays (iron condors, short strangles, short straddes), assuming there's sufficient time before earnings to sneak a play in. Otherwise, it's probably best just to wait to do the standard volatility contraction play surrounding earnings ... .
P
by NaughtyPines
3
TRADE IDEA: RUT/IUX AUG 19TH 1060/1070/1200/1210 IRON CONDORI'm not going to take this particular trade (as I've already got a RUT IC on at the moment), but figured I'd post one anyhoo while I wait for earnings. Metrics: Probability of Profit: (Software's being glitchy here in off hours; should be between 55 and 65%) Max Profit: $331/contract (nearly 1/3rd the width of the wings, which is what you're shooting for generally in these) Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $669/contract Break Evens: 1067/1203 Theta: 5.15 Delta: -2.61 Notes: Naturally, these are off hours quotes, so you may have to fiddle with strikes and fill price at open. Look to take this off at 50% max profit.
I
by NaughtyPines