Get started

Ironcondor

SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.38% for this week, decrising from the 4.58% from the last week. Currently there is around 24.3% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 3757 BOT 3430 The current volatility percentile is around 89th, placing us in a very risking and volatility week. And in this situations in general the market moves: AVG weekly bull candle = 2.5% AVG weekly bear candle = 2.76% With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around TOP 3684 BOT 3492 At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bullish candle, there is currently a 38% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 3750 and there is a 66% that we will touch the low of previous candle which is 3570. From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 66.6%% agreement that the market is in a short trend ( the current price is below those moving averages) At the same time if we are looking at the candle type since the beginning of the year, we can see that 59% of them were bearish, solidificating the bearish trend. News that can affect the price of this asset this week: - Monday 3 October : ISM PMI - Tuesday 4 October : JOLT Job - Wednesday 5 October : ADP and ISM release - Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report - Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
$NKE Iron Condor IdeaAfter being struck down -7% post ER and general weak market, I like the idea of selling puts on NKE via an Iron Condor (bull put spread and bear call spread). With a demand zone 95-100 area, I opened 2x position 100/95p bull spread and 1x position 125/130c bear spreads with another 1x to be added on next green week ( assuming we get one) to capture better call premium . Opex a few months out will give this trade idea time to work and capture more premium. If you're more bearish than I on this name, an idea would be to adjust the calls closer to the underlying , say 110/115, however after today's purge I favor the probability on the upside hence the 2x put spread Iron condors are nice because you can adjust the position as the stock moves (adding more legs, etc. ) with the trade making max profit if Nike is between 100 and 125 in the coming months. Cheers
NYSE:NKE
by FriscoTrades
1
Daily US Volatility Forecast 27 May 22 SPY,SPX, QQQ, NDXSPX/ES/SPY 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 1.8% with a chance of probability of 85% For SPX/ES this is going to be translated in a movement of +- 73$ from opening candle For SPY this is going to be translated in a movement of +- 7.35$ from opening candle Taking into account the opening candle price which was around 4047.5, we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 4120 BOT 3975 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QQQ/NDX/NQ 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 2.23% with a chance of probability of 82% For NDX/NQ this is going to be translated in a movement of +- 273$ from opening candle For QQQ this is going to be translated in a movement of +- 6.6$ from opening candle Taking into account the opening candle price which was around 12250 we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 12520 BOT 11975 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
1
Daily US Volatility Forecast 25 May 22 SPY,SPX, QQQ, NDXSPX/ES/SPY 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 1.85% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 4045 BOT 3900 From fundamental point of view, today we are going to have US GDP release, which it may affect with a high probability the price of this asset Since the expected GDP is going to be negative/bearish compared to the previous values, I believe once we are close to 30k we can enter in a short trade before the release of the data. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NDX/NQ/QQQ 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 2.28% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 12150 BOT 11600 From fundamental point of view, today we are going to have US GDP release, which it may affect with a high probability the price of this asset Since the expected GDP is going to be negative/bearish compared to the previous values, I believe once we are close to 30k we can enter in a short trade before the release of the data. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Expected Key Points SPX/ES 17 May 2022SPX/ES 17 May 2022 The daily expected volatility is around 2% With an 87% accuracy based on the historical data, we can assume that the price of SPX/ES today is going to be between TOP 4080 BOT 3922 All of this taken into account with the opening price of today which was 4000* From VOLUME POC point of view its above 114 which imply a bullish momentum at this very moment. From Fundamental/News point of view that can affect SPX/ES price: In 10h from now, FED Chair Powel speaks However, be careful because even tho we have a strong 87% probability behind us, because of Powel speech, it can be easily broken
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Iron Condor IBM 13 May 2022IBM 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 32.77%/year So that converted into daily is 2.06% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 133.7 (you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 2.75 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 90% within TOP 136.5 BOT 131 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish.
NYSE:IBM
by exlux
Iron Condor Apple 13 May 2022Apple 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 47.8%/year So that converted into daily is 3.01% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 145 (you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 4.3 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 77% within TOP 147 BOT 138 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by exlux
Iron Condor XLE 13 May 2022XLE 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 36.3%/year So that converted into daily is 2.3% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 79.3(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 1.8 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 81.1 BOT 77.5 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish. At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for DIA were TOP 335 BOT 314
AMEX:XLE
by exlux
Iron Condor DIA 13 May 2022DIA 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 24.22%/year So that converted into daily is 1.52% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 320.6(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 5 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 325.5 BOT 315.5 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish. At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for DIA were TOP 335 BOT 314
AMEX:DIA
by exlux
Iron Condor QQQ 13 May 2022QQQ 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 40.66%/year So that converted into daily is 2.52% However we are going to go with 25% coficient for a total of 3.2% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 297(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 9 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 306 BOT 288 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish. At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for QQQ were TOP 324 BOT 282
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
Iron Condor SPY 13 May 2022SPY 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 33%/year So that converted into daily is 2.08% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 398(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 8.1 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 406 BOT 390 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish. At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for SPY were TOP 423 BOT 386
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
2
Expected Key Points IBM 12 May 2022IBM 12 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 35.63%/year So that converted into daily is 2.24% The close of yesterday was 130.75 So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed within TOP 133.68 BOT 127.8 with a probability chance of 81.6% based on the last 3007 candles From fundamental point, today we have PPI and initial jobless claims releases and these mark a huge volatility moment At the same time the current values are expected to be bearish.
NYSE:IBM
by exlux
Expected Key Points NQ/NDX 12 May 2022NQ/NDX 12 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 40.1%/year So that converted into daily is 2.53% The opening of today was 11970 So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed within TOP 12300 BOT 11700 with a probability chance of 79.8% based on the last 5395 candles From fundamental point, today we have PPI and initial jobless claims releases and these mark a huge volatility moment At the same time the current values are expected to be bearish.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
Expected Key Points ES/SPX 11 May 2022ES/SPX 12 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 32.6%/year So that converted into daily is 2.05% The opening of today was 3939 So based on that our channel is going to be compressed within TOP 4020 BOT 3860 with a probability chance of 86.9% based on the last 1049 candles From volume point, current POC is around 3930, so I believe initially the 3.9k will sustain/bounce initially, but if the poc is becoming lower and lower, then we can expect to enter within 3.8k area From fundamental point, today we have PPI and initial jobless claims releases and these mark a huge volatility moment At the same time the current values are expected to be bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Expected Key Points Amazon 11 May 2022Amazon 11 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 54.27%/year So that converted into daily is 3.42% The yesterday close price was on 2177 So based on that our TOP 2250 BOT 2100 This channel has a 80.5% change to sustain based on the last 3006 candles At the same time with 89% we can affirm that the price is going to be above TOP 2185 BOT 2170 From fundamental point, today we have CPI release and this marks a huge volatility moment From volume point, current POC is around 2170 We can expect now with close to 70% that the market is going to end up between TOP 2185 - 2250 BOT 2100 - 2170
NASDAQ:AMZN
by exlux
Expected Key Points Apple 11 May 2022Apple 11 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 40.54%/year So that converted into daily is 2.55% The yesterday close price was on 154.5 So based on that our TOP 158,5 BOT 150,5 This channel has a 79% change to sustain based on the last 3006 candles At the same time with 89% we can affirm that the price is going to be above TOP 154.9 BOT 154.1 From fundamental point, today we have CPI release and this marks a huge volatility moment From volume point, current POC is around 154.37 We can expect now with close to 70% that the market is going to end up between TOP 154.9 - 158.5 BOT 150.5 - 154.1
NASDAQ:AAPL
by exlux
Expected Key Points NDX/NQ 11 May 2022NQ/ NDX 11 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 41.43%/year So that converted into daily is 2.62% The opening price was on 12320 So based on that our TOP 12650 BOT 12000 This channel has a 80% change to sustain based on the last 5394 candles At the same time with 88% we can affirm that the price is going to be above TOP 12360 BOT 12300 From fundamental point, today we have CPI release and this marks a huge volatility moment From volume point, current POC is around 12410 We can expect now with close to 70% that the market is going to end up between TOP 12350 - 12650 BOT 12000 - 12300
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
Expected Key Points SPX/ES 11 May 2022SPX/ES 11 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 32.11%/year So that converted into daily is 2.02% The opening price was on 3991 So based on that our TOP 4070 BOT 3910 This channel has a 87% change to sustain based on the last 1048 candles At the same time with 85% we can affirm that the price is going to be above TOP 4000 BOT 3980 From fundamental point, today we have CPI release and this marks a huge volatility moment From volume point, current POC is around 4000 We can expect now with close to 74% that the market is going to end up between TOP 4000 - 4071 BOT 3910 - 3982
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Potential Iron Condor SPX/ES 10 May 2022Current expected movement from IV = 2.1% At the same tim we estimate with a 90% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 2.27% for this the market will stay within TOP 4080 BOT 3900 All of this being calculated with the opening value candle of today From the fundamental point of view we have not big volatility news today With all of this in mind, we can try a scalp entry for today with the next setup Iron Condor for 0 DTE ES Call Sell 4110 Call Buy 4135 Put Sell 4000 Put Buy 3975 The reason behind those values is because of yesterday huge drop, and I believe we are going to have a recovery for today. For top I used the hh of yesterday + a bit and for bot I used the 4k support area
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
BTC Update: 9 MayBitcoin is experiencing a selloff and that is what we expected in our bearish scenario. In this video I explain an idea to capture the move with an Iron Condor. We are able to set it up because implied volatility is highest in an Elliott wave 3 of 3. This strategy will benefit from an immediate bounce with a volatility crush, or an exhaustion of the selloff in the target zone, or a collapse with a rebound that ends in the target zone upon expiration.
AMEX:BITOShort
by UnknownUnicorn12250317