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Ironcondor

BOUGHT TO CLOSE BIDU MAR 18TH 152.5/157.5/180/185 IRON CONDORClosed this setup at 50% max profit (for the rolled setup) ($62.58/contract). It doesn't entirely make up for my early bobble of BIDU's earnings announcement date (first they said it was 2/10; then it was 2/25), but I'll take it here going into Draghi/FOMC. Here's the entire chain: 2/25 Sold March 8th 132/137/177.5/182.5 iron condor for a $131 credit 2/26 Bought the 132/137 short put vert back for a $9 debit (post earnings announcement; near worthless) 2/29 Rolled the 177.5/182.5 short call vert to the March 18th 180/185 short call vertical for a $17 credit (price too close to short call strike with limited DTE) 2/29 Sold the March 18th 152.5/157.5 short put vertical for a $48 credit (this wasn't strictly necessary, since I received a credit for the roll of the short call side; I just wanted some protection there if price continued to shoot off into the ether). 3/9 Bought to close the March 18th 152.5/157.5/180/185 Iron Condor for a $106 debit. Total credits minus total debits minus fees and commissions = $62.58/contract, not quite 50% max profit of the original setup, but close enough considering that I had to roll and that it was supposed to be one of those ideal "inzee/outzee" earnings plays ... .
NASDAQ:BIDU
by NaughtyPines
BOUGHT TO CLOSE MAR 18TH QQQ 99/102/107/110 IRON CONDORTaking some risk off the table while I can ... . This was part of a layered on arrangement I had in QQQ in the March expiry, much as I did with SPY. Here's the trade chain from head to toe: 2/2 Sold March 18th QQQ 94/97/109/112 iron condor for a $110 credit 2/2 Sold March 18th QQQ 93/96/108/111 iron condor for a $112 credit (Don't ask me why I sold two setups the same day; I imagine there was somewhat of a large move that particular day such that selling a second setup made sense). 2/4 Sold March 18th 92/95 short put vertical for a $56 credit (sold on weakness) 2/5 Bought to close March 18th 109/112 short call vertical for a $16 debit (bought back on weakness/spread near worthless). 2/5 Bought to close March 18th 108/111 short call vertical for a $22 debit (bought back on weakness; spread near worthless). 2/16 Sold March 18th 106/109 short call vertical for a $41 credit (sold on strength) 2/17 Sold March 18th 107/110 short call vertical for a $49 credit (sold on strength) 2/22 Bought to close March 18th 92/95 short put vertical for a $26 debit (bought back on strength; spread near worthless) 3/1 Bought to close March 18th 93/96 short put vertical for a $9 debit (bought back on strength; spread near worthless) 3/2 Bought to close March 18th 94/97 short put vertical for a $10 debit (bought back on strength; spread near worthless) I should have bought to close here, as the "chain" was net in profit, but forgot to check when I was doing my Tuesday housekeeping trades. 3/7 Rolled the March 18th 106/109 short call spread to the 107/110 spread (same expiry) to merge the 106/109 with an existing 107/110 for a $34 debit 3/7 Sold March 18th 99/102 short put spread to finance the cost of the roll for a $74 credit 3/8 Bought to close March 18th 99/102/107/110 iron condor for a $176 debit I'm not going to do all the math here, but if you add up all the credits and subtract all the debits, the net profit after fees and commissions is about $100/contract ($99.89, to be exact), which is a little less than 50% max profit for the combination of the two original iron condors ... .
NASDAQ:QQQ
by NaughtyPines
2
NDX/IUXX MAR 11TH 4190/4200/4420/4430 IRON CONDORAnother thing I'm going to do while waiting for volatility to return in the broader markets such that it makes sense to set up plays 45 days out is go short duration. While I'm not going to put this particular trade on because I have a short duration RUT/IUX iron condor that I rolled out to next week standing in as this week's short duration play (see Post below), at some point I figured I'd putz with the "big daddy of the indices" -- IUXX or NDX (RUT/IUX is the smallest, followed by SPX/SPX500, followed by NDX/IUXX). Here's a basic setup: NDX/IUXX Mar 11th 4190/4200/4420/4430 Iron Condor Probability of Profit: 63% Max Profit: $335/contract Buying Power Effect: $665/contract Notes: Like RUT or SPX plays, this is one that you want to fiddle with getting a fill above the mid price, since price can swing back and forth across that by +/- .20 given the wide bid/ask due to the price of the underlying. Hey $20 is $20 and if you're going 2 or 3 contracts or more, that little .20 swing can add up and be significant. I generally set price .10-.20 above the mid, see if it gets filled, wait a bit, adjust price slightly, etc. As with all iron condor setups, I look to take the play off as an entire unit if I can for 50% max profit or, if a single side is approaching worthless (.10 or less), I look to take that off first. In the event a side is breached, look to roll it out another week, improving strikes if possible, and selling an oppositional side against for at least a credit that exceeds the cost/debit to roll any tested side.
NASDAQ:NDX
by NaughtyPines
MARCH 4TH SPY IRON CONDORI'm layering these on with a particular price zone in mind between the .236 and .764 shown on this SPX 500 chart, but giving myself a bit more leeway to the downside from the outset. I can always delta balance the setup on the fly by rolling the short put side up a little bit within the same expiry as the trade progresses. March 4th SPY 180/184/203/207 Probability of Profit %: 62% Max Profit: 1.04/$104/contract Buying Power Effect: 2.96/$296/contract Break Evens: 182.96/204.04
FX:SPX500
by NaughtyPines
BIDU EARNINGS: MARCH 4TH 136/141/185/190 IRON CONDORBIDU announces earnings after tomorrow's close, so look to put a setup on in the waning hours of the NY sesh. Now that I've got the earnings date correct (they previously "tentatively" announced a 2/10 earnings release -- sooooo annoying), here's the metrics for the setup: BIDU Mar 4th 136/141/185/190 iron condor Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $125/contract Buying Power Effect: $375/contract Notes: Naturally, you may need to tweak the setup given the underlying's price movement during the session ... .
NASDAQ:BIDU
by NaughtyPines
THIS WEEK'S OPTIONS EARNINGS PLAYS -- COSTFor all practical purposes, this quarter's earnings season is all but over. However, there is one last play I might do and that is in COST, which announces earnings on Tuesday after market close. Currently, it's implied volatility rank is 58 and its implied volatility is 26. Generally speaking, I like to see the rank in the 70% percentile, and this isn't quite there, but this is one of those underlyings that just never gets that volatile -- its IV has been between 20 and 30 or so for the past 90 days. I'll look to put on a play before NY market close on Tuesday, and I'll post a play (most likely an iron condor given the price of the underlying) some time during Tuesday's NY session. Preliminarily, this looks like the approximate setup I'll use, although tweaking may be required as price moves on Monday and Tuesday: March 11th 137/142/157.5/162.5 Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: $99/contract Buying Power Effect: $401/contract
NASDAQ:COST
by NaughtyPines
RUT/IUX 66% POP MAR 4 970/975/1045/150 IRON CONDORAs with my previous, short-term RUT trade, I'm looking to keep buying power engaged while I wait for March index ETF trades to decay and/or work themselves out. Here's the metrics for the setup: March 4th 970/975/1045/1050 Iron Condor Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: ~$170/contract Buying Power Effect/Max Risk: ~$329 Notes: Due to the price of the underlying, look to attempt to get a fill slightly above the mid price, since price can move +/- .05 somewhat quickly. Look to take the entire setup off at 50% max profit or peel off the side that is at or near max profit (<.05) prior to expiration. In the event a side is tested, look to roll the tested side out to the next weekly and sell an oppositional side against for a credit that exceeds the cost of the roll.
I
by NaughtyPines
LAYERING ON: MAR 24TH RUT/IUX 945/955/1070/1080 IRON CONDORLayering on to my existing Mar 24th IUX/RUT Iron Condor with this little number: March 24th RUT 945/955/1070/1080 Probability of Profit: 63% Max Profit: $330/contract Buying Power Effect: $670/contract Notes: I'd ordinarily go out to April, but I have a preexisting March 24th setup on and have a little bit more unused buying power and less theta on than I'd ordinarily like. Plus, I just don't feel like going out to April with a ton of stuff yet. I actually looked at layering on another SPY iron condor on top of the one I put on yesterday, but price hasn't moved enough yet ... . With this particular "discretionary" setup, I won't chase price; if it fills, it fills; if it doesn't, I'll look at it again some other day.
I
by NaughtyPines
FSLR -- MAR 4TH 51/54/70.5/73.5 IRON CONDORGoing small here, given the fact that the solar space has been a bit of wild of late ... . Metrics: FSLR March 4th 51/54/70/73.5 Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: $71/contract Buying Power Effect: $229/contract Notes: Ordinarily, I pass on stuff that doesn't have at least a 1.00 credit in it. I could naturally go short strangle, but don't want to tie up the buying power if the thing goes awry (a 53.5/71.5 short strangle would get you a 1.44 credit). That being said, I don't have a ton of stuff going on (mostly waiting for longer-term setups to play out), so I figured I'd play it just to keep some buying power engaged ... . Look to take it off at 50% max profit.
NASDAQ:FSLR
by NaughtyPines
BUYING REVERSE MAR 18TH 177/180/200/203 TO CLOSENow that I'm done layering on March 18th credit spreads and iron condors, I'm starting to mix and match the spreads that I put on at different times and closing them out as a unit. In this particular case, I'm taking a 177/180 short put vertical that was part of one iron condor or a leg in on weakness and matching it with a 200/203 short put credit spread that I either put on as an iron condor or as a spread I legged into on strength and looking to close it as a unit for a .69 debit. If filled, it will yield about .47 or a $47/contract profit, which is about 50% of max profit, since most of these were put on for between a .95 and 1.05 credit ... .
FX:SPX500
by NaughtyPines
SPY APRIL15TH 173/177/203/207 IRON CONDOROkay, okay, okay, so I'm starting on my layering on of April SPY iron condors a little bit earlier than I'd like, but with this slight uptick in volatility, there's no time like the present. Consider this the first small layer of my April SPY "onion" ... . Metrics: SPY April 15th 173/177/203/207 Probability of Profit: 62% Max Profit: $102/contract Buying Power Effect: $298/contract Notes: As with March SPY iron condors/credit spreads, I'll be looking to layer these on small and over time, after which I'll proceed to peel off "mixed and matched" pairs of short put credit spreads/short put call spreads and/or adding short put credit spreads on obvious weakness/short put call spreads on obvious strength ... .
FX:SPX500
by NaughtyPines
IUX/RUT 80% POP FEB 29TH 895/905/1050/1060 ICWith a paucity of meaningful earnings plays to work this week and having exited all of my Feb index plays, I'm looking for something short-term to bide my time as my core March index setups work themselves out. I'm not yet ready to move into the April monthly (it's still a bit far out) for index setups, so a short duration, high probability setup is a good way to keep engaged without tying up buying power for substantial periods of time. The setup metrics: RUT Feb 29th 1740/1750/1965/1975 Probability of Profit: 82% Max Profit: $98/contract Buying Power Effect: $902 Notes: As you can see by the metrics, the probability of profit is great; the risk-reward is not. As with all setups of this type, there is typically a trade-off between probability of profit (which generally requires a wider setup) and your defined risk, which represents the max loss you would experience if you allowed the setup to go to expiration without doing anything in the event of a test of one of your sides ... . All that being said, I generally treat these as scalps. Although I shoot for 50% max profit for the setup, I usually look to get out of the trade for a smaller profit if that 50% max isn't fairly immediately realized.
I
by NaughtyPines
FSLR -- EARNINGS PLAYS VIA OPTIONSFSLR announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on a play in the final hours of the NY session. Here's two setups, one of which is an undefined risk trade; the other, defined: FSLR March 4th 55.5/73.5 Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $144 per contract Buying Power Effect: Undefined FSLR March 4th 53/56/72/75 Iron Condor Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: $79 per contract Buying Power Effect: $221/contract Notes: I had to goof around with the iron condor setup, since the strikes "thin out" at 75 and increase to 5 dollar increments, making it difficult to set your short strikes at the 85% probability OTM strike with your long options 3-4 strikes out from that, so the max profit isn't what I'd ordinarily like to see.
NASDAQ:FSLR
by NaughtyPines
SPY 64% MAR 18 175/179/200/204 IRON CONDORGuess I'm not done with March ... just quite yet. In the past several weeks, I have put on several SPY iron condors and/or credit spreads in the March 18th expiry, giving me quite a selection of short put credit spreads and short call credit spreads to mix and match to improve probability of profit. I think I can fit one more in here before the remaining time to the March 18th expiration just gets too short to play with (I generally don't like to go shorter than 25 days for these layered on setups; the "expected move" zone constricts such that sides are more subject to being tested in light of average true range). Going into expiration, I'll look at mixing and matching short put with short call sides to take off units in profit ... . SPY March 18th 175/179/200/204 iron condor Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $101/contract Buying Power Effect: $299/contract Notes: Standing alone, the setup isn't that great. Generally, I shoot for 70% probability of profit with iron condors, and this falls a touch short of that. However, the strikes on both the short and long sides of the setup fit in nicely with the spreads I've already got on. Consequently, you may want to play with the strikes and/or the width of the wings to get more favorable metrics for the setup ... .
FX:SPX500
by NaughtyPines
RUT/IUX MARCH 31ST 805/815/1060/1070 IRON CONDORWith the highest implied volatility out of the four indices (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000), the Russell 2000, RUT or IUX (symbology will vary by platform, apparently), offers good premium selling as an alternative to playing its ETF counterpart, IWM. Given the value of the underlying and its accompanying options, having more "meat on the bone" allows you to go wider with your iron condor, increase the probability of profit of the setup, and still get something for your trouble (the only way you can do that with IWM is to increase the number of contracts involved). While I ordinarily place the short put side of my index ETF, SPX, or RUT iron condor setups at one standard deviation out (84% probability OTM), here I've gone somewhat out to the 94% probability OTM strike for the short put; on the call side, I ordinarily set up the short call at the 75% probability OTM short call, but here I've gone out to the 80% strike. Here's the setup: RUT/IUX March 31st 805/815/1060/1070 Iron Condor Probability of Profit %: 73% Max Profit: $210/contract Buying Power Effect: $790/contract Notes: Look to take the entire setup off at 50% max profit and/or balance the setup's fairly delta neutral disposition by rolling sides in toward current price if you've still got 25 days or more until expiration ... . I put something like this on last week while waiting for my Feb SPY IC's to finish out, but neglected to post it here ... .
I
by NaughtyPines
PCLN -- FEB 26TH 947.5/957.5/1212.5/1222.5 IRON CONDORPCLN announces earnings tomorrow before market open, so look to put on this play before today's close. As noted in my post early this week regarding this week's earnings play prospects, PCLN's options are somewhat illiquid, so look for a fill of any setup at or above the mid price and resist the urge to chase price for a fill ... . You can naturally play with the width of the wings and/or or the width of the short option strikes to give you a setup that fits your risk tolerance. Here's the metrics for the basic setup: PCLN Feb 26th 947.5/957.5/1212.5/1222.5 Iron Condor Probability of Profit %: 71% Max Profit: $341/contract (that's the mid price; I regard the likelihood of a fill there quite small) Buying Power Effect: $160/contract (not sure that's correct, but it's what the software's telling me if you shoot for a fill a 3.41) Break Evens: 954/1216
P
by NaughtyPines
BIDU EARNINGS PLAYSBIDU announces earnings "some time tomorrow", so it could be either before or after market; if you want to play it, look to put on a setup before today's market close. One thing I would note is that the bid/ask spreads aren't that great, implying that the options' liquidity isn't the best in the world, so I would look to put on a play at the mid price, but not to chase price ... . In any event, here are the setups: For the folks who like to "go naked": Feb 19th 124/157.5 short strangle Probability of Profit %: 72% Max Profit: $225/contract Buying Power Effect: Undefined For those who are "more shy" or of a defined risk bent (I've gone out a little farther in time because I can't get the long option strikes I want for a symmetrical setup in the Feb 19th expiry): Feb 26th 115/120/165/170 iron condor Probability of Profit %: 70% Max Profit: $117/contract Buying Power Effect: $382 Look to take off the entire setup at 50% max profit or a single side nearing worthless. In the event a side is tested, look to roll that side out to a later expiry and sell and oppositional side against the rolled out option(s) for a credit that exceeds the cost of the roll of the tested side.
NASDAQ:BIDU
by NaughtyPines
1
QQQ -- LAYERING ON MARCH 18TH "ONION"/IRON CONDORSI've got quite a few SPY setups on in addition to a fairly long-term IWM poor man's covered call that I'm working and realized that I really don't have much on in March, let alone in QQQ. So I figured there's no time like the present to start layering on QQQ iron condors in the March 18th expiration. The reason why I call this setup an "onion" is because you layer on iron condors in a single expiration over a several week period as price moves about, yielding a set of short put credit spreads and short call credit spreads that you can "mix and match" to lock in profit. For example, you can take off a short put credit spread you put on the first week you started layering on your iron condors along with a short call credit spread that you put on in the third week or vice versa, depending on how price has moved since you started putting on the layers of your "onion." Here's the first layer: QQQ March 18th 94/97/109/112 Iron Condor Probability of Profit: 56% Max Profit: 1.10 credit/$110 contract Buying Power Effect: $190/contract Of course, this doesn't look like all that hot a setup from the start. The probability of profit is sub-60, which wouldn't be my cup of tea if this was a stand-alone setup. However, the notion is to layer on with price movement over time, yielding spreads that, when taken off in combination, yield higher profit potential than just this setup standing alone.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by NaughtyPines
GLD -- MAR 18TH IRON CONDORGLD is quite literally "in the middle of things." Although I would prefer to sell on strength and buy on weakness in the areas I described in the post below, an iron condor that delineates a profit zone of sorts between 103 and 111 makes some objective sense as well: GLD March 18th 100/103/111/114 Iron Condor Probability of Profit %: 56% Max Profit: .98/$98/contract (although you can play with the width of the wings to wring a bit more out of the trade) Buying Power Effect: $202/contract Break Evens: 102.02/111.98
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
TSLA EARNINGS PLAYSTSLA announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on any volatility contraction play (short strangle/iron condor) before then. You'll naturally want to tweak these strikes if there is any movement during the market day ... . Short Strangle Feb 19th 111/180 short strangle Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $404/contract Buying Power Effect: Undefined Feb 19th 106/111/180/185 iron condor Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $101/contract Buying Power Effect: $400 Notes: I'm probably not going to play this one, since I'm still working off FB and have DIS and BIDU on, as well as a bunch of other index ETF balls I'm juggling ... .
NASDAQ:TSLA
by NaughtyPines
DIS EARNINGS PLAYSDIS announces earnings today after market hours, so look to put on any setup before New York close. Here are the two "classic" setups: Feb 19th 82.5/100 short strangle Probability of Profit %: 74% Max Profit: $127/contract Buying Power Effect: Undefined Feb 19 77.5/82.5/100/105 iron condor Probability of Profit %: 72% Max Profit: $86/contract Buying Power Effect: $414 Notes: You can naturally play with the width of the iron condor wings to increase/decrease buying power effect and/or max profit potential. As always, look to take the setup off at 50% max profit post-earnings or a side at or near max. In the event a side is tested, look to roll the tested side out for duration to a later expiry and then sell an oppositional side against the rolled side for a credit that exceeds the debit paid for any roll and look to exit the rolled out setup for scratch (total debits paid minus total credits paid = 0) and to redeploy your buying power elsewhere. They are, after all, meant to be quick and dirty plays ... .
NYSE:DIS
by NaughtyPines
DIA MARCH 18TH IRON CONDORBecause my layered on setups in SPY are getting "a little busy" as far as number of setups on and their location strike-wise, I figured I'd briefly move my iron condoring to DIA for a little while to allow my SPY setups to clean themselves up (one way or another). Here's a March 18h setup: DIA March 18th 142/146/170/174 iron condor Probability of Profit %: 67% Max Profit: $96/contract Buying Power Effect: $304/contract Notes: Look to take the entire setup off at 50% max profit. Should one side near max profit, roll the entire spread/wing approaching max profit toward current price within the same expiration if it is reasonably profitable to do so. With these particular setups in index ETF's where vol skew is involved, I generally do any call side roll to not greater than the edge of the expected move on the call side (the 75% probability OTM strike) and any put side roll to the 1 SD line (the 84% probability OTM strike). On a test of a side, look to roll the tested side out at the same strikes and sell an oppositional side against the rolled out side for a credit greater than what it cost to roll out the tested side. (This frequently requires looking at a number of different expirations to see what works best in the individual setup's circumstance). I generally do this no later than 3 or 4 DTE.
AMEX:DIA
by NaughtyPines