Ironcondor
88% PoP #ironcondor for $BABA in chinese crash #option #optionsChinese crash credit play, because of high IVRank.
My Iron Condor Hunter script have signaled a safe entry here.
REASONS:
1) Confirmed bear trend
This is the safe playground of IC for credit.
The backtested 3 years of bullish trend changed.
2) My automatic Iron Condor Hunter script
My Iron Condor Hunter script gave a reliable signal to opening IC position.
To subscibe for free trial of it: please follow and requeast access for free.
Max profit: $188
Probability of 50%Profit: 88%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 23%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $812 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 81 (very high)
Expiry: 53 days
Buy 1 BABA Sep17' 140 Put
Sell 1 BABA Sep17' 150 Put
Sell 1 BABA Sep17' 220 Call
Buy 1 BABA Sep17' 230 Call
Bearish IronCondor for 1.88cr, Tasty IVRank is extreme high (81 IVR).
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing OUTSIDE the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 100$.
Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto debit order for 0.66db.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
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Iron TariHi guys,
this is again a CSCO short condor, 4 weeks and 3% strike, gives 30$ credit for 1 dollar Spread. RR is 30/70=0.42, but according to the strategy the odds are at our side, 88% to earn all the premium.
The short strikes are 51 and 54, so BE are at 51.30 and 53.70.
Subscribe for free to my indicator!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
NFLX Low Risk Short PositionNFLX has been trading in a range for many months, as we can see by this weekly chart here:
Stochastics on the daily chart are showing it as heavily overbought, with an RSI of about 85, likely in anticipation of earnings which come out in 6 days. Historically, NFLX sells off about 80% of the time post earnings, usually quite steeply, with an average sell-off of between $50-60 dollars within the week that follows earnings.
Here's a daily chart with stochastics visible:
Barring a few temporary outlying moves to the outer extremities of its range, I believe NFLX will either:
1) Push up towards and then reject at the $566 level and then retrace back down towards $515.00 post earnings.
2) Falter post earnings and retrace to more "typical" RSI and stochastic levels prior to earning hitting.
3) (Hopefully not) push outside its trading range (difficult to imagine this scenario actually happening) and form new highs above its existing range.
I am currently in an Iron Condor on NFLX with 570 and 490 short strikes. It is leaning bearish at the moment, but a move back down downwards 515 and a crush of implied volatility will substantially help my position. I believe both are likely to happen in the current market environment.
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If you were to enter NFLX short, you might consider it around the $566 level, assuming it pushes that high. You could accomplish this with a call credit spread which would give you the benefit of IV crush, assuming volatility decreases (which it would, if the price fell off steeply.)
You could also take a bearish debit spread, but that will struggle with volatility collapse as it's a BTO position.
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Whatever happens, I'll be curious to watch NFLX as it develops. I do not think it's current price behavior is sustainable.
SPY / short iron condor / expiring August 27expiration: AUG 27 (50 DTE)
order:
1 * 390 put (delta -0.13)
-1 * 395 put (delta -0.15)
-1 * 450 call (delta 0.15)
1 * 455 put (delta 0.09)
for 1.05 net credit
@ 430.50
BPR $395
IVR 15.9
PoP 72%
P50 88%
expected move 411.00-449.00
net delta -3.90
target: 55% max profit
Nikkei Options Strategy for coming monthsThis is an idea for trading INDEX:NKY options.
In recent months, Nikkei index did experienced some volatile moments, however, they were all short-term momentum that they were unable to be met with trends that lasted for months or even weeks.
The author of this article believes that this trend to continue.
So, I suggest opening an Iron Condor spread which captures the prices between the lines drawn.
$NKE 8% profit in one day with Iron Condor #nike #options$NKE 8% profit in one day with Iron Condor #nike #options
8% profit in one day at event?
Let's see!
Max profit: $45
Probability of Profit: %75
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 8%
Req. Buy Power: $554 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 24
Expiry: 1 days
Buy 1 NKE Jun25' 120 Put
Sell 1 NKE Jun25' 126 Put
Sell 1 NKE Jun25' 145 Call
Buy 1 NKE Jun25' 150 Call
Iron Condor spread for 554cr, because IVR is relative high because event.
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SPY play with 90% PoP!Hello, guys hope all is well. Today we will be looking at $SPY and how I will play the market this week.
Based on the expected move for this week of $6.79 we are possibly looking at a range between $410.01 - $423.59. On Monday I opened the Put side ($400 / $398 and collected $9 per contact) of my Iron Condor and leg into my Call side roughly Thursday afternoon or right before close.
Last week we saw a slight dip in the markets from Monday's open of $424.43 to Friday's close of $414.92. This 2.24% drop has made the $VIX pop to the $20 levels from the mid to high teens. With this pop, we will be able to take advantage in one of two ways.
1) We can keep our stricks the same as we did last week because we still believe that there is a lot of supply at this price and we want to collect more premium.
2)We will be able to get lower on the put side/higher on the call side while still collecting the same amount of premium as we did last week.
I will be going with the second option because although there may be supply at these levels I still want to sell the .10 - .05 deltas with a $2 widespread.
I'll be looking to collect between $8-$10 per contract on the put side give me roughly a 4% gain while also looking for the same percent gain on the Call side later on in the week. Since no additional collateral is needed to add the Call side, we are looking at a minimal gain of 8% if we stay in our expected range.
IRON TARIHi guys,
my indicator shows a 70% probability to end ITMm 4 weeks, 11% strikes.
But premium is very low, so since there is always a 30% chance to end otm, I reverse the condor, and I narrow the sold legs too @48$ and @57$, instead than 11% ( 47$ and 59$), to encrease the odds to end otm, let's say from 30% to at least 40%.
But for a 40% probability to win I have a wonderfull RR ratio at my side, becuase with 1$ spread max primuim is 80$, and max loss 20$.
So even when the market pays less, we know how to get the best out of it!
Subscribe for free to get access at my indicator.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
IRON TARIHi guys,
this all starts with a 4 weeks 10% strikes, with 60% probability to end ITM. But the premium is too low, so I narrow the short legs and I invert the condor, so my short legs are @55 and @66( 8% strikes), instead @54 and @67.50.
By this I raise my probability from 40% at at least 50%, keeping a very good RR ratio, in fact with this trade max credit is 75$, and max loss is 25$.
Subscribe for free to get access to my indicator.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
IRON TARIHi guys,
this is an inverter iron condor, 4 weeks and strike 3%. We have 14% probability to end ITM, so 86% probability that our inverted condor gets the maximum profit!
RR is pretty nice too, becuase selling @305$ and @325$ with 5$ spread, max profit is 200$ and max loss 300$, but we win the max profit 86 times out of 100.
Subscribe for free to get access at my indicator.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
Developing a ChannelI see Yelp developing a channel between 37.31 and 40.95. There's a possibility that this flag pattern turns into a continuation of a previous up trend so I am cautious but today opened a broken wing iron condor to profit the most if it stays in the said range but still make a slight profit slightly above or below. If it breaks resistance, then I will roll the puts to create an iron butterfly; even a partially inverted iron condor if needed. I can also roll the calls to protect the bottom if the price falls below support but will have less room to defend serious price drops since that is the side of the long wing.
Spread:
Brought: Jun 18 34.5 Put
Sold: Jun 18 38 Put
Brought: Jun 18 39.5 Call
Sold: Jun 18 43 Call
Credit: 1.80
Profit Range: 36.19 and 41.30
Max Profit Range: 38.00 and 39.50
IRON TARIHi guys,
this week I found better opportunies buying options rather selling ( IV drop made options cheaper to buy)
So the strategy is basically the contrarian of my Tari Condor ( Have a look and subscribe for free!), and as you can see this trade is 4 weeks and 6% spread.
The sold strikes are 132 and 117, the bought strikes are almost ATM, it depends on your money managment, for a 65% of probability to get some profit.
But let's do some math: Tari Condor says we have only the 22% of possibilities that our sold options will both expire worthless. This means we have 78% of probabilities that the price will move over the sold strikes, higher than the 65% coming from the option chain.
So this time the odds are from our side, because now we play from the other side of the Tari Condor.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari
IRON TARIHi guys,
IV keeps quite low, this week too, so I have to reverse my Tari condor.
3 weeks 6% strike, 37% of probability to end ITM. So I reverse the condor, so the odds come to my side, because I have 63% of probability to gain a profit, and my RR is almost 1:1 ( 0.85 commisions incl.)
So subscribe for free to trade with Tari Condor!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari
IRON TARIHi guys,
this IV brings me to reverse the condor again.
3 weeks and 3% strikes give a range to be ITM with the 2 sold options between 192.5 and 205.
The odds to end ITM are only 24%, so I revrese the condor to have a nice 76% probability of profit, RR almost 1
Subscribe for free to trade with Tari Condor.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari,
Bullish Iron Condor with 64% PoP for 41% profit at eventMax profit: $291
Probability of Profit: 64%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 41%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $709 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 53 (high)
Expiry: 43 days
Buy 1 SQ Jun18' 190 Put
Sell 1 SQ Jun18' 200 Put
Sell 1 SQ Jun18' 290 Call
Buy 1 SQ Jun18' 300 Call
Bullish Iron Condor for 2.91cr with +4.82 delta
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing outside the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% .
Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 1.02db. Probability of profit this way: ~80%.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
SAGE 62% PoP Bearish Iron Condor after event
My favorite bearish neutral trade for today.
Losing only upside, I like the extreme high IVR values to play.
Reasons to play this:
1/ After event, big selloff, high implied volatility.
2/ Extreme High Implied Volatility, good for credit strategies
3/ I can boost my original bearish vertical spread with 2 bottom legs at fib 0.786 to boosting my reward almost zero risk to the downside (max loss below strike 35 is $17 ...)
4/ Secure zones are 88$ and the 40$
So the winner is the negative delta Iron Condor Strategy.
Max profit: $483
Probability of Profit: %62
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 42%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$250
Req. Buy Power: $1050 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 92 (ultra high)
Expiry: 45 days
Buy 1 SAGE Jun18' 35 Put
Sell 1 SAGE Jun18' 40 Put
Sell 1 SAGE Jun18' 90 Call
Buy 1 SAGE Jun18' 105 Call
IRON CONDOR for 4.83cr with negative -8.3 delta, because IVR is very high and I'm bearish.
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing ABOVE $90, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 250$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% .
Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 1.69db. Probability of profit this way: ~80%.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !