Ironcondor
Iron TariHi guys,
this is another iron condor from the strategy W1 5% strike.
Probability 63% gives a Rew/Risk = 100-63/63=0.58
Today the market does'nt pay enough, RR is 0.60, not that much we'd like to trade, but we can leave a pending order to get something more.
In this case I prefer to widen the spreads of the 2 vertical, always having a RR not lower than 0.58. This is because the wider the spreads are, the higher our prability of success are. In this case the breakeven moves a bit giving us an higher range to be protibable, plus the max loss moves on each side of 4$. 8$ more for the iron condor is a good extra room for the price.
So in this case we enlarge our probability of success, without touching the RR ratio.
Enjoy your Wallet!
Tari.
Tari CondorHi guys,
this iron condor is W1 5%strike (check my strategy for more info, it's vary easy!)
We have 71% of success: Rew/Risk= 100-71/100=0.40
With one week to expiration it's not easy to find a good price for these 5% strikes, so I moved the strikes @ 190 and @215, with a 5$ spread for each vertical.
The RR is 0.41, so this is not a big edge, but trading wider wings wh move our edge on the side of the probability, becuase BE is wider, just like the bought strikes, wich give us tha max loss.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari
IRON TARIHi guys!
For this Iron Condor we have 3 weeks at 5% strike, so our short legs are 327.5 and 362.5, probability to win 69%, so Rew/risk = 100-69/69= 0.44
With a 2.5$ spread we can collect 100$ to sell IC, so
Max profit=100
Max loss = 150
RR= 0.66, 50% more than 0.44!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
TARI CONDORHi guys!
According to Tari Condor strategy I set an iron condor with 3 weeks exp and 10% Strike.
The short put is @100, and the short call @122.
With a 78% of success our Reward/Risk is (100-78)/78 = 22/78 = 0.28
I'm in the trade with 1$ spread ( long put@99 and lon call@123), colletting 0.30$
Max win= 30$
Max loss= 70$
RR= 30/70 = 0.42 much higher than 0.28
This is a good edge!
Enjoy your wallet!
TARI CONDORHi guys,
this iron condor is with 3 weeks expire and 4% strike.
So the short legs are 28.5 and 31.
Probability of success is 56%, so our Rew/risk is 100-56/56= 0.78
With 1$ spread iollect 0.52 credit
Max profit 52
Max loss 48
Rew/risk for this operation is 52/48=1.08, 40% more than 0.78
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
IRON TARIHi guys,
this iron condor is 3 weeks 10% strike, our probability is 82%
The strikes are enough wide to trade with enough confidence, ther is a very wide room to get profit!
The maths in here very easy, if you cath the 2 short strikes ( 50 and 61.5) for a cumulative delta higher than 0.18 + commission jump in!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
OPENING: DKNG SEPTEMBER 18TH 25/45 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 2.10/contract credit.
Notes: Earnings announcement volatility contraction play with 30-day at 102.7%. Adjusted my strikes slightly over my "Trade Idea" post.
Defined Risk Alternatives: September 18th 20/25/45/50 iron condor, paying 1.20. I'd prefer getting one-third the width out of that, but -- as with LYFT -- pesky width on strike availability in the September expiry.
TRADE IDEA: DKNG SEPTEMBER 18TH 25/50 SHORT STRANGLEMetrics:
Rank/Implied: 9/96
Short Straddle Price/Stock Price Ratio: .257/25.7%
Max Profit: 1.70 ($170)/contract; .85 ($85) profit at 50% max
Max Loss: Undefined
Break Evens: 23.30 on the put side (2 times the expected); 51.70 on the call (>2 times the expected)
Delta/Theta: -1.67/5.90
Defined Risk Alternatives:
September 18th 20/25/50/55 iron condor, paying 1.03 (.51/$51 profit at 50% max), with break evens at 23.97/51.03, nearly 2 times the expected on the put side, > 2 times the expected on the call.
September 18th 20/35/35/50 iron fly, paying 7.73 (1.93/$193 profit at 25% max), with expected move break evens at 27.27/42.73.
Comments: High background implied at 96 with the at-the-money short straddle paying 25.7% of the stock price. Announces Friday before market open, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Thursday's session.
OPENING: ROKU SEPTEMBER 18TH 130/225 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 7.71 credit.
Notes: Earnings, high implied. There is some call side skew here that I occasionally try to accommodate in some fashion, but just went plain Jane delta neutral at around the 17 delta.
Defined Risk Alternatives:
September 18th 130/140/215/225, paying 3.63 at the mid as of the writing of this post, delta/theta 2.98/4.49.
September 18th 130/135/220/225, paying 1.65 at the mid as of the writing of this post, delta/theta 1.41/2.41.
OPENING: BA AUGUST 21ST 140/150/205/215 IRON CONDOR... for a 2.74/contract credit.
Notes: Earnings announcement volatility contraction play with 30-day implied at 70.9%. Will look to take profit and/or manage on side approaching worthless/break even test ... .
For those wanting to play naked, the August 21st 150/205 short strangle was paying 7.03 as of the writing of this post.
OPENING: TWTR AUGUST 21ST 32.5/45 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 1.74/contract credit.
Notes: High rank/implied with earnings in 1. Looking to take profit at 50% or otherwise manage on side approaching worthless.
Defined Risk Alternatives: The August 21st 26/31/45/50 iron condor, paying .98. Generally, I like to get one-third the width of the widest wing out of these, but the call side is pesky with strike granularity (i.e., strikes widen to 5-wides at >45). The only weekly with one wides above 45 is the July 31st, where the directionally neutral 30/34/41/45 is paying 1.38.