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BTC- SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS !Once again, the magical Fibonacci retracement occured... Indeed, yesterday, the BTC filled its 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'340 (which is also by the way the KS and the 21 DMA ! (intraday being slightly higher @ 40'387) Currently in a SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS . BREAKOUT IMPLICATIONS COULD TRIGGER A MOVE OF + / - 3'099 pts !!! TARGETING RESPECTIVELY (currently ) : 43'200 TO THE UPSIDE 35'100 TO THE DOWNSIDE RECOMMENDATION : WATCH ON A DAILY CLOSING THE POTENTIAL BREAKOUT LEVELS WHICH ARE, FOR TODAY, THE FOLLOWING. : SUPPORT. : 38'200 RESISTANCE : 40'200 4 HOURS Magical clouds too,,, Currently still just above the MA 21 @ 39'400 and the Kijun-Sen @ 39'250 A failure to hold and stay on a 4 hours closing basis above the KS would be the first intraday warning signal, calling for further downside. Please, also take note that a RISING WEDGE is now alive in this time frame (target 38'700) 1 HOUR (H1) Currently supported by the hourly clouds support are which has already been tested twice (yesterday and a couple of hours ago today and as the thickness of the clouds becomes very thin (twist) in a couple of hours, this support area should be seen as very fragile and a next breakout attempt will be difficult to be rejected... Any comments or suggestions are always more than welcome :-) Do you like my analysis and you think it bring added value on your trading strategies ? If the answer is YES, please to like it first and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either to add Ironman8848 in your following list. Many thanks in advance. Have a nice trading day. Regards IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - WATCH 39'295 ON DAILY CLOSING !!!DAILY Yesterday's price action filled for a couple of points to make a "PIERCING LINE" (following the RSI bullish divergence detected and mentioned in my previous analysis yesterday I mentioned the level of 39'295 which was the minimum point to reach to confirm this "minor" reversal pattern which, to be cleat a white candle, in order to be validate should close at least above the middle of the prior black candle and in our case closed @ 39'256...) Please also note the importance of this 39'300 area which was for a while the daily congestion support which rejected several downside breakout attempt with success before to only be broken once and now the BTC is attempting to recover above this former support which became the new short term resistance to break, ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS, to neutralise the downside risk !!! Currently, a FALLING WEDGE IS IN PROGRESS , the upside BREAKOUT being...the bottom of the DAILY CLOUDS... LEVELS TO WATCH REMAINS THE SAME : UPSIDE : 39'295 - 40'340 DOWNSIDE : 39'295 - 37'700 So, in this daily time frame, the next closing will give us the answer.. in the meantime we are looking at the shorter time frames, in order to try to find more clues about further development. 4 HOURS Currently in an uptrend ongoing channel (39'000 - 40'000) 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement @ 39'717 (nearly filled, high so far being @ 39'692) Above both the Tenkan-Sen and the Kijun-Sen, respectively @ 38'696 and 29'250) In this 4 hours time frame, a failure to hold on H4 closing basis above the Kijun-Sen @ 39'250 would already be the first warning signal to take in account... as it would put the focus to lower levels towards the 38'700 area, then to the former low @ 37'700 On the other hand, in order to maintain its current upside bias, the BTC should close above the former closing level which was @ 39'359. A next closing level above 39'359 would open the door for the 40'000 area being the H4 clouds resistance zone and also the 50% Fib ret @ 40'340 1 HOUR Currently above the hourly clouds area, therefore this zone (39'250-38'700) should now be seen as the new intraday support area which also roughly match with the ongoing uptrend support line (39'100) which started from the former low @ 37'700 and with the Kijun-Sen @ 39'000. CONCLUSION VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE CORROBORATION BETWEEN THE COMMENTS MENTIONED IN EVERY TIME FRAME ! IRONMAN8848 - JEAN-PIERRE BURKI
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE..BUT !Yesterday's price action (long black candle - BEARISH ENGULFING !) which pushed sharply down the BTC towards a low of 37'701 (nearly filling the TRIANGLE TARGET @ 37'581), triggered a BULLISH DIVERGENCE... Therefore, on short term and it'is exactly what is going on, a recovery should take place; nevertheless and in order to confirm a TACTICAL REVERSAL, the BTC should recover and close on a daily basis, at least above the middle (39'295 of the yesterday's long black bearish candle which is also by the way the area of the former daily support congestion ! This only will be the first step of this potential recovery as, as long as the BTC does not make a closing level, above the closing level (40'440) of the last white bullish candle, the trend will not change and the downside risk will remain !!! LAST BUT NOT LEAST IN THIS DAILY PICTURE, THE BTC IS WELL BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA WHICH IS ALSO CONFIRMED WITH THE LAGGING LINE... CONCLUSION. : ANY RALLY, FOR THE TIME BEING SHOULD BE SEEN AS A CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY (TACTICAL COUNTERTREND PRICE ACTION) AND NOT AS STRATEGIC REVERSAL YET; THEREFORE, ANY TACTICAL LONG POSITION SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY AND MANAGED WITH STOP LOSS ACCORDINGLY ! KEY LEVELS IN THIS DAILY TIME FRAME ARE RESPECTIVELY : DOWNSIDE : 37'000 (ONGOING PRIMARY UPTREND SUPPORT LINE) UPSIDE : 40'500-40'800 (FORMER HIGHS) IMPLICATIONS : DOWNSIDE BREAKOUT OF THE PRIMARY UPTREND SUPPORT LINE : A failure to hold and close on a daily basis above the 37'000 area would be seen as a NEGATIVE SIGNAL, calling for lower levels towards 34'325 (February low) ahead of 32'950 (January low) Then, below the 30'000 area (psychological support) and last but not least THE VERY IMPORTANT KEY STRATEGIC SUPPORT @ 28'600 (double top trigger level !) RECOVERY ABOVE THE FORMER HIGHS (40'500 - 40'800: A successful recovery and a closing level above this area would momentary neutralise this ongoing downside risk and put again the BTC in a TACTICAL UPTREND. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE PRIMARY DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE IS CURRENTLY @ 45'600 4 HOURS RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE CONFIRME BY A BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN R1 : 38'500 R2 : 38'917 R3 : 39'717 (38.2% FIB RET 42'979 -37'701) and also the middle of the long black bearish candle seen yesterday afternoon (40'484-38'572 !) On the downside a failure to stay and close (H4 closing basis) above the recent low @ 37'701 would reactivate the downtrend and put the focus towards the levels previously mentioned in D1 1 HOUR RSI school case ... On April 25th we saw a BULLISH DIVERGENCE which trigger a move from 38'202 towards a high of 40'800 (first top) Then a second top also @ 40'800 which triggered this time a BEARISH DIVERGENCE which pushed the BTC down again from 40'800 towards a low of 37'701. Finally this morning a BULLISH DIVERGENCE took place (potential double bottom with its trigger level @ 38'462) WATCH ONGOING PRICE ACTION AS AN HOURLY CLOSING above 38'462 WOULD ACTIVATE THIS DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMATION FOR A TARGET @ 39'223, which roughly match with the KIJUN-SEN (or base line), currently @ 39'250 A failure to activate this double bottom in progress would put again the BTC under selling pressure with the focus on the former low of 37'701. As usual, monitor closely price action from intraday short term time frames to longer time frames which will help you to catch early and intermediate validation or invalidation signal of what has been mentioned in longer (DAILY and 4 hours time frames) Have a nice trading day. Any comment are more than welcome. Regards IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - HOURLY - NICE RECOVERY...VERY S HORT TERM ANALYSIS (HOURLY) Today, we are going to look carefulLy what happened after the validation of the RSI bullish divergence coupled with the double top formation which i mentioned yesterday morning in my previous analysis as a warning ... (see related idea below) So as you can see, after this validation signal the BTC moved quickly up in a new intraday bull trend, (higher highs and higher lows, confirmed with a convergence on the RSI indicator; please also note the bullish engulfing pattern at the bottom of the chart, which also added value to this nice recovery; note also the successive long white candle which broke at each time important resistance level, begining by the Tenkan-Sen, then the Kijun-Sen, the resistanc of the former downtrend channel and finally the clouds resistance area (39'475-39'713) which increase the upside move towards an intermediate high @ 40'375 then going to the high so far @ 40'800. The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'590 of the last downside correction (42'979 - 38'202 has also been filled), with the next 61.8% Fib ret @ 41'154, which also match the 4 hours clouds top resistance area and which should also be considered as the next important level to break in order to maintain this upside bias. NEVERTHELESS, looking at the last couple hours price action, we can see a trend changing from UP to SIDEWAYS, with a RSI also moving in the same way !! Therefore, this is the first warning signal to consider and respect ! Indeed, no bearish divergence has been confirmed yet, but I would strongly suggest to monitor very closely the price action over the upcoming trading hours. CONCLUSION : In order to maintain to come back in the former short term uptrend mood, the BTC should at least recover and hold above the former uptrend support line and make a new high (higher than the previous one @ 40'800 On the downside, an hourly closing below 40'375 (respectively former short term resistance area and now new short term support area !) would be the first warning signal calling for a downside correction towards the following levels : S1 : 39'800 S2 : 39'500 S3 : 39'194 (VERY THIN HOURLY CLOUDS SUPPORT ZONE !) As usual monitor and watch closely both shorter time frames (M30, M15 and M5) in putting in place alerts which will help you to detect early signal (s) of validation or invalidation of what I previously mentioned. Do not forget, of course, to keep an eye, at the DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY picture which will bring you a broad picture and which will remember you that the BTC is still under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP FORMATION, with its trigger level @ 28'600, currently in the weekly time frame still in a secondary downtrend move and in the daily picture, still below the clouds...meaning that the countertrend recovery should only be consider, for the time being, as a TACTICAL RECOVERY ONLY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND and NOT AS A STRATEGIC REVERSAL YET. Have a nice trading day. IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - INVERSED HAMMER AND DOJI....WEEKLY Last weekly closing triggered an inversed hammer pattern which could be interpreted as a potential trend reversal; however, it is important to note that the weekly closing is now under the weekly clouds area which means a persisting downside risk bias, stil alive... RSI below 50, @ 43.70 LAGGING LINE is still in the bottom part of the weekly clouds support area which currently gives little support Globally the trend remains bearish (higher lows) and this trend would only reverse if the BTC manage to recover and hold above the Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 42'701. The next weekly closing level will be very important to look at as it will either validate the inversed hammer pattern in making a bullish engulfing pattern or invalidate in making a closing below 39'467. DAILY Yesterday's price action triggered a DOJI pattern (uncertainty and indecision !) this time, below the minor support, I mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below) The triangle target @ 37'581 is still valid and the base of this triangle@ 40'128) should be considered as the first significant resistance area to break which would stabilize and neutralise, for the time being this persisting selling pressure. RSI below 5, @ 38.43 LAGGING LINE broke the clouds support area, which means, if the BTC does not recover quickly, the selling pressure will increase and will push the BTC lower towards the primary uptrend support line, currently around the 37'000 area. 4 HOURS Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen Watch carefully at the level of the RSI at the next upcoming H4 closing level (potential bulish divergence and double bottom !) LAGGING LINE far away below the clouds 1 HEURE Watch also as per H4 the upcoming price action IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - UNCERTAINTY AND INDECISION ...WEEKLY Currently below the clouds and as I had already mentioned in my previous analysis, a weekly closing below 40’118 would add more selling pressure. RSI below 50, @ 44.31 LAGGING LINE au milieu de la zone des nuages. Levels to watch in a weekly basis, are the following : UPSIDE : 41’279 - 42’690 DOWNSIDE : 38’547 - 36’500 DAILY Currently trying to hold above a minor support trend line and still under the influence of this triangle pattern with a target @ 37’581. In order to neutralise this ongoing downside pressure, the BTC should imperatively close, in a daily basis, above the triangle support line (@ 40’000) and also confirm the Tenkan-Sen breakout @ 40’0763 which also match with the triangle resistance line of this formation which is approaching of the apex. RSI below 50, @ 41.16 The LAGGING LINE hold for the time being above the bottom of the clouds support area; a breakout confirmed of this support would be seen as an added negative signal. 4 HEURES Currently below the clouds, moving sideways in a relatively narrow trading range (39’000 - 40’000) wc his corroborate perfectly with the weekly and daily comments previously mentioned. Please note the « TWIST » (40’150 - 40’276) which means a clouds resistance area very fragile which could be broken very easily due to its little thickness and if it occurs, that would put the focus to higher level such as the Tenkan-Sen @ 41’088 On the downside, a failure to stay and close above the 39’000 area would open the door for lower levels towards the next support zone between 38’500 and 36'500 1 HEURE Also below the clouds, currently caught between the KS and TS in support and hourly clouds (39’800 - 41’088) in resistance; the top of this resistance zone is also confirming the importance of the weekly Tenkan-Sen @ 41’279 IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Bürki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - YO-YO - UP AND DOWN...WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing price action is for the time being not very encouraging ; indeed, after having briefly tested the resistance ton @ 42’680, the Bitcoin reversed sharply and came back below the weekly clouds support area. The level of the next weekly closing will be very important to look at as, a closing confirmation below 40’118 would be seen as a negative signal which would increase considerably the downside risk, putting the focus for the next supports : S1 : 38'547 S2 : 37'581 S3 : 36'980 In order to temporary neutralise this downside risk, the Bitcoin should at least close above the Tenkan-Sen,(@ 41’279), level already mentioned several times in my previous analysis. Next resistances being : R1 : 42'248 R2 . 43'385 R3 : 44’523 DAILY (D1) High volatility seen over the last couple of days, triggered firstly an upside triangle breakout, calling for a target @ 43’400 which has been missed, higher level being 42’979, which matched with the top of the clouds resistance area and which triggered the sharp downside reversal , pushing the Bitcoin below 40’000, @ 39’770. Yesterday, the Bitcoin failed to recover and closed, for the first time, below the triangle bottom support line which validated this triangle formation calling for a target @ 37’581. Warning, watch carefully ongoing price action (pullback) which may either validate or invalidate this recent downside breakout. Watch also carefully the price action of the LAGGING LINE which is currently testing the bottom level of the clouds. Finally, it is also important to note that the primary uptrend support line is currently @ 36’980 (Support nr 3 mentioned in my weekly analysis) 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the clouds (39’824-40’998) LAGGING LINE also below both Tenkan-Sen and Cajun-Sen. RSI below 50, @ 36.91 A « DOJI » triggered a « shy recovery », which for the time being has been rejected by the bottom of the clouds resistance area. 1 HOUR (H1) Below the clouds, Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen Watch closely the RSI which may show a potential Bullish divergence (potential double bottom too) which if confirmed may trigger some recovery, with a limited upside potential as this recovery should be seen as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend. IRONMAN8848 Jean-Pierre Bürki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-DAILY- MAGICAL CLOUDS, ISNT'IT ?DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action has been a perfect school case about the POWERFUL ICHIMOKU CLOUDS; indeed, if you look at the yesterday's price action, the picture does not need additional comment... Well, to very quickly resume the situation, the BTC is, after having nearly crossing over the top of the clouds, the BTC corrected sharply downwards, with its DAILY CLOSING BELOW THE CLOUDS @ 40'470 and also below the TENKAN--SEN @ 40'763 !!! A couple of hours ago, the BTC reached an intraday low, a couple of hours ago, below 40'000, @ 39'770 and is currently trying to recover... Overall, the yesterday's price action changed the mood , in moving from a potential BULLISH scenario (upside triangle breakout) to, currently rather at a BEARISH SCENARIO, calling for lower levels; a failure to hold on a DAILY CLOSING LEVEL above the former and recent low @ 39'770 should be seen as a first warning signal, calling for lower levels towards 38'500/37'500. A WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL below the weekly clouds of 40'118 would add significant selling pressure for next upcoming week ! 4 HOURS (H4) RSI bearish divergence, coupled with a shooting star pattern (above 42'000) was the reversal signal which pushed the BTC sharply down below the 40'000 After having briefly broken the clouds bottom of the 4 hours chart (@ 40'400) and reached the level of 39'770 previously mentioned, the ongoing price action, in this time frame, is showing an attempt to hold in the clouds. RSI @ 43.78 and LAGGING LINE below the clouds. Therefore, levels to watch (4 hours closing basis !) are the following : resistance 3 : 42'979 resistance 2 : 41'374 resistance 1 ; 40'763 ******************************* CURRENT LEVEL : 40'500/40'600 support 1 : 40'347 support 2 : 39'770 support 3 : 38'547 1 HOUR (H1) Currently below the clouds... Watch LAGGING LINE price action, which for the time being is still in the clouds ! IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS...DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a DOJI pattern; indeed after having opened @ 41'476, briefly broken the former TRIANGLE BREAKOUT LEVEL @ 41'100 (low being 40'893, the BTC managed to recover in making a closing @ 41'375, confirming the still alive triangle target @ 43'400, As long as the BTC stays and hold on a daily closing above 41'000, the way is open for 43'390-43'400 (50% FIb ret, Kijun-Sen and triangle target previously mentioned. A failure to do it would invalidate this TRIANGLE FORMATION (daily closing below 41'000) and put the focus towards the daily bottom clouds support around the 40'400 area which is also, by the way the Tenkan-Sen level. 4 HOURS (H4) Interesting price action seen yesterday and this morning where, yesterday, the upside breakout attempt of the clouds (long white candle) in this 4 hours time frame has been directly neutralized by a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN and the breakout of the ongoing uptrend support line, which pushed the BTC down again towards the middle area of the clouds. The ongoing price action is showing a new breakout attempt with its last closing level (H4) matching roughly the top of the clouds zone in this time frame. Therefore, upcoming trading hours should give more clues about further development, targeting respectively, 42'220 ahead 43'400 if the upside breakout is validated or in case of a failure to do it, a return in the clouds with first support level @ 40'858 (MBB) ahhead of the bottom of Hç clouds support at 40'400. RSI above 50, @ 60.34 and LAGGING LINE, currently roughly in the middle of the clouds. 1 HOUR (H1) The 38,2% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'811 of the recent rally (38'562-42202) has nearly been reached (yesterday's intraday low being 40^8939. Interesting to note that once again the CLOUDS worked perfectly well and this time as a SUPPORT AREA. Continue to monitor and watch closely at this hourly clouds (41'300 - 40'000) as very short term support area, the 61.8% Fib ret being @ 39'952, also matching the hourly clouds bottom zone. IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - BREAKOUT OR BULL TRAP ?DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a second long white candle in a row, which broke on a closing basis (41'505) the upside triangle trigger level @ 41'115 which should, potentially activate the triangle technical target, calling for a move towards 43'400 , which is also, by the way, projected in the next days the top of the daily clouds resistance area and therefore should be seen, if reached at a KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT Interesting to note that 43'390 is the 50% Fib ret (48'534 - 35'547) and also the KIJUN-SEN, meaning very important level as previously mentioned. Nevertheless, following this first upside breakout I would remain cautious and it also could be a BULL TRAP as already seen in the past... In addition, the current level of the daily top clouds resistance area (41'900) is working as the first obstacle to be broken to confirm this upside move towards 43'400. On the downside, a failure to hold and close on a daily basis above the triangle trigger level, now @ 41'061 should be seen as the first warning signal of a wrong breakout and would put again the BTC on a neutral mode, roughly in the middlle of the daily clouds. 4 HOURS (H4) TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS is currently working perfectly well, in rejecting four successive upside breakout attempts !! RSI is losing momentum and began to turn down. LAGGING LINE is above both TS and KS but did not managed, so far, to enter in the clouds resistance yet... First support to look at in the 4 hours time frame is @ 41'166 and a closing below that level would increase the risk, calling for further downside towards the 4 hours clouds bottom area, around 40'300 (MBB being @ 40'467 and KS @ 40'150 Globally the psychological 40'000 former resistance level became now the NEW SUPPORT which should not be broken in order to keep going the ongoing upside bias ! 1 HOUR (H1) Short term support @ 41'277 (currently under attack) ahead of 41'166; 38.2% Fib ret of the last rally @ 40'53 , 50% @ 40'158 and 61.8% @ 39'781, this Fibonacci retracement zone match with the hourly clouds support area, which, also, perfectly corroborate the important 40'000 support level previously mentioned in longer time frame. Have a nice trading day. IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - UNEXPECTED RECOVERY ?HOURLY (H1) Although no bullish divergence was detected in this hourly time frame, the BITCOIN managed to recover nicely, breaking on its way up all resistances very quickly, in a short period of time; it also managed to recover above the hourly clouds and hold above it for the time being. After having reached, a coupled of hours ago, an intraday high @ 41'250, the BTC is currently moving slightly down and is now, again, below the Tenkan-Sen, which should be seen as a good indicator in this hourly time frame. We are now, roughly, in the same position than yesterday morning when the BTC reached a intraday low @ 38'547, no RSI bearish divergence had been detected and nevertheless a nice rally took place (38'547-41'250). Are we going to see the same scenario on the other side ??? The answer to this question will be given by the KEY PIVOT LEVEL OF 40'000 , which also match with the hourly clouds support area, the H4 Mid Bollinger Band, the bottom of the Daily clouds zone; in summary, A VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL WHICH SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED !!! 4 HOURS (H4) The H4 clouds worked perfectly well as resistance level for the time being; two successive "shooting stars" took place when attempting to enter in the clouds. On the upside, watch the 4 hours clouds resistance area between 40'950 and 42'100 as the next barrier to break. A failure to hold, on H4 closing basis, above the ongoing former downtrend line resistance, currently @ 40'469) which became now the new support, would be the first warning signal of a BULL TRAP and would opent the door for lower levels towards, the MBB @ 40'178 ahead of the cluster of KS and TS @ 39'900. DAILY (D1) Despite this recent rally, the BTC did not managed to close on a DAILY BASIS above the Tenkan-Sen @ 40'998 ! Therefore, the today's ongoing price action and more important its closing level may give more clues about further development for the upcoming daily session (s). Indeed, the TRIANGLE PATTERN is still alive, with now, 2 potential breakouts - 41'105 and 39'813 , targeting respectively 43'390 on the upside and 37'474 on the downside, depending on which side the breakout will occur... Watch TS (40'481) as the first support ahead of the daily bottom clouds @ 40'000. WEEKLY (W1) Last weekly closing @ 39'691 below the weekly clouds bottom (39'895) for the first time since January 2022 when the Bitcoin reached an intraweek low @ 32'950 with a weekly closing below the clouds @ 36'294. Ongoing price action is showing a recovery attempt, the BTC being, currently, again in the bottom of the clouds and facing the first significant level to break, which is the weekly Tenkan-Sen @ 41'279, (very important level, already mentioned several times in my previous analysis !) The weekly clouds are very thick (40'118 - 50'550) and therefore should be seen as a difficult area to break straight away...Mid Bollinger Band @ 42'407 will also be an important level to watch at and also consider as a barometer or pivot level for further development. IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - ON THE RAZOR'S EDGE !!!WEEKLY (W1) The last weekly closing was @ 39'691, just below the bottom of the weekly clouds support area !!! As already mentioned several time the CLOUDS SHOULD NEVER BE UNDERESTIMATED on both sides, either on the UPSIDE as a RESISTANCE area and on the DOWNSIDE as a SUPPORT area. Therefore, ongoing price action which will take place this week will be very important to monitor very closely and most important its weekly closing which will either validate or invalidate this downside breakout, which if confirmed will put the focus on lower levels. DAILY (D1) TRIANGLE PATTERN , in progress to breakdown (wait for the first confirmation of today's closing - target 37'235, ahead of the primary uptrend support line, currently @ 36'379. RSI should be watch also closely as there is potentially a BULLISH DIVERGENCE in progress too !!! LAGGING LINE is also attempting to cross under the daily clouds bottom level. In order to invalidate this triangle pattern, the BTC should at least, firstly recover and hold on a daily closing basis above 39'750 and secondly, quickly reenter in the clouds area. 4 HOURS (H4) As for D1, watch closely RSI price action and especially next H4 closing which, potentially, may trigger a RSI bullish divergence. 1 HOUR (H1) No RSI bullish divergence detected yet ; for the time being this indicator is still converging to the downside, meaning that any reversal should be seen as a corrective move only. As already mentioned in D1, a recovery above 39'750 in this hourly time frame would, temporary, neutralise the ongoing downside risk Your comments are welcome. Have a nice week and all the best IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC- DAILY - STILL IN THE CLOUDS...WEEKLY (W1) Upcoming weekly closing may or may not give more clues for next week price action... Indeed, THE BOTTOM OF THE CLOUDS ZONE SUPPORT has been, during this week, briefly broken but, so far, the BTC managed to hold in the clouds; therefore, as you can easily imagine, a WEEKLY CLOSING, below the bottom of the clouds @ 39'885 would, once again, be seen as a NEGATIVE SIGNAL in this WEEKLY TIME FRAME , putting the focus to the TRIANGLE (in progress) target @ 37'235 ( see daily comments below, ) ahead of the weekly ongoing uptrend support line around 36'350. KEY STRATEGIC PIVOT LEVEL (WEEKLY) : 28'600 Being both the former low reached in June 2021 and more important the TRIGGER LEVEL OF THE MAJOR DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!! On the upside, a weekly closing above 41'279 or event better above MBB @ 42'872 would neutralise, for some time, the ongoing downside risk. Please note the large thickness of the clouds (39'895 - 50'551) which means, resistance area very difficult to break ! RSI below 50, @ 45.05 and LAGGING LINE in the middle of the clouds. DAILY (D1) Currently traded in the middle of the ongoing TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESS and still in the bottom zone of the daily clouds support area. As mentioned yesterday, the implication of the triangle breakout would trigger a move of 2'339 points, targeting respectively : UPSIDE : 43'659 DOWNSIDE. : 37'235 RSI below 650, @ 41.31 LAGGING LINE below both KS and TS. Interesting to note that in this DAILY time frame, the level of the T enkan-Sen (@ 41'334) match roughly with the level of weekly Kijun-Sen @ 41'279 , that is why this resistance area should not be underestimated. 4 HOURS (H4) Still moving sideways in a narrow trading range, below the Mid Bollinger and more important below the very thick clouds resistance area (40'698-43'209) ! 1 HOUR (H1) Monitor and watch price action around the clouds which are becoming very thin, meaning fragile on both side... Have a nice Sunday. Take care IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-TRIANGLE ! 43'659 & 37'235...Looking at the DAILY picture, we can see a TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESS, with the breakout levels , currently and respectively : @ 41'320 on the upside and @ 39'574 on the downside I MPLICATIONS ON A DAILY BASIS CLOSING LEVEL : upside breakout : TARGET @ 43'659 (currently the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen) downside breakout out : TARGET @ 37'235 (currently, roughly the ongoing weekly uptrend support line, starting @ 32'950, low reached in January. RSI , below 50, @ 41.44 LAGGING LINE attempting to hold above both KS and TS Continue to monitor closely price action and especially, WATCH THE CLOUDS !!! 4 HOURS (H4) Caught in a relatively narrow trading range which confirm growing uncertainty about further development. Currently attempting to upside breakout the Kijun-Sen with difficulty... successive small candles !!! RSI also below 50, @ 46.23 LAGGING LINE far below the clouds and still below both TS and KS Last but not least the 4 hours clouds resistance area is very thick (41'468-23'338) which means very strong resistance zone which should be broken to really confirm a reversal. 1 HOUR (H1) Currently attempting to breakout the clouds to the upside without great success for the time being... On this hourly time frame, watch the clouds too (40'255 - 40'570) as a sustainable breakout of one of those levels would give the direction for further short term price action. Do you like my analysis ? ifYES, please do not forget : 1) to like it 2) to add Ironman8848 on your following list (if it is not done yet :-) Have a great long weekend and have fun All the best Take care IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
bBTC-CAUGHT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND KIJUNSEN DAILY (D1) The BTC is caught between two important levels, which are : on the downside, the DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT ZONE (39'900-40'100 on the upside, the WEEKLY KIJUN-SEN (in overlay in the daily chart ) Therefore, ONLY A CLEAR AND SUSTAINABLE BREAKOUT OF ONE OF THOSE LEVELS WOULD SHOW THE NEXT DIRECTION. WEEKLY (W1) In this regard, the upcoming weekly closing level, would also be important for further development in the weekly time frame as the weekly clouds bottom level, also coincides with the important and psychological 40'000 support level . 4 HOURS (H4) The 4 hourly KIJUN-SEN, act perfectly well as resistance level so far (currently @ 40'816) and should still be seen as a good leading intraday indicator for further development. The BTC is currently in this time frame, below bot MBB and KS , which should be seen as the first resistances levels to break before the Kijun-Sen, slightly higher. 1 HOUR (H1) After having filled the 50% Fib ret @ 41'334, in reaching yesterday, an intraday high @ 41'557, the BTC failed to maintain its upside bias and went down in falling, again, below the hourly clouds and below the MBB , which is currently under upside breakout attempt. The HOURLY CLOUDS AREA (40'415-40'936) remains the zone to watch at very carefully as short term resistance zone and on the downside, monitor the former double bottom lows slightly above the 39'000 area. IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5
BTC-WATCH THE CLOUDS-D1 and W1 !WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG BLACK CANDLE (BEARISH SIGNAL) which managed to close above the Tenkan-Sen @ 41'279. The ongoing candle, firstly broke, yesterday, the TENKAN-SEN and went lower towards the bottom of the weekly clouds which act, for the time being as support.. In order, in this weekly time frame to neutralise the selling pressure, the BTC needs, at least to recover above the former support (Tenkan-Sen) @ 41'279; this would be the first step of a potential recovery. A failure to do it on a weekly closing basis, would keep the focus on the bottom of the weekly clouds (@ 39'895) ahead of the next significant support @ 36'425 (former primary support trend line and monthly KIJUN-SEN. DAILY (D1) The cross-under 41'279, as expected and mentioned in my last analysis (see related ideas) triggered a downside acceleration in breaking in its way the psychological 40'000 support level in making an intraday low @ 39'218. A natural pullback took place, attempting to recover above the former support (daily thin clouds), currently 39'900 and 40'100 RSI @ 37.70 LAGGING LINE attempting to stay above both KS and TS. 2 SCENARIOS COULD BE SEEN FROM NOW : 1) BULLISH A successful breakout and a daily closing at least above 40'000 would neutralise "temporary" the ongoing downside risk calling for lower level; nevertheless, such kind of price action should be confirmed by an upside move continuation at least above the middle (40'841) of the yesterday's long black candle (bearish), which if seen, would trigger a PIERCING LINE , (1st bullish signal), A much bullish signal would be given by a daily closing above both the Kijun-Sen @ 41'279 and above the yesterday's opening level @ 42'159, which if achieved would trigger a BULLISH ENGULFING . a pattern which should be seen more powerful than the Piercing line previously mentioned. 2) BEARISH If the ongoing pullback attempt fails and do not achieve to recover above the levels above mentioned in the bullish scenario, then the focus will switch firstly towards the secondary support trend line (minor support) around 39'000 ahead of the more important support of 36'425 being firstly the monthly KIJUN-SEN and secondly the primary support trend line. CONCLUSION : Once again the CLOUDS and LAGGING LINE will give the answer !!! 4 HOURS (H4) Currently far below the clouds and also below TS, KS and MBB In this 4 hours time frame, it looks like any recovery should be seen as a corrective move only in an established ongoing downtrend and any rally should be considered as a better selling opportunity. It is not a surprise to see that the H4 TENKAN-SEN @ 41'334, coincides roughly with the Daily TS @ 41'279 previously mentioned as an importance new resistance to break in order to neutralise the ongoing downside move; therefore, this resistance area corroborate the daily view and as long as the BTC does not achieve to recover and hold at least above 41'279, the picture will remains bearish. 1 HOUR (H1) Currently above TS and facing the Mid Bollinger Band resistance @ 40'251 ahead of KS @ 40'793 No RSI bullish divergences detected yet in this H1 time frame which mean, for the time being corrective move and not trend reversal yet !!!! Last but not least the hourly clouds resistance are @ 42'613 (twist). IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-DAILY-YESTERDAY'S CLOSING BELOW KS!DAILY (D1) Second daily closing in a row below the KIJUN-SEN (KS) ! As mentioned in my yesterday's analysis, a failure to recover and close above the KIIJUN-SEN, which is now @ 43'549 would increase the risk for further downside in putting the focus for the next support area around 41279, being the weekly TENKAN-SEN (or conversion line) , ahead of the psychological 40'000 level which also coincides with the daily clouds (very thin !) support area. Once again, THE KIJUN-SEN remains the KEY PIVOT LEVEL TO THE UPSIDE and as long as the BTC remains below this level, the downside riks will remain. A successful recovery (daily closing level) above the KIJUN-SEN would reopen the door for the CLUSTER of MBB and TS , currently @ 44'800 ahead of the ongoing downtrend resistance line around 45'750. RSI below 50, @ 45.29 and LAGGING LINE moving above the clouds in a sideways mode. CONCLUSION : 2 levels to watch UPSIDE : 43'549 DOWNSIDE : 41'279 4 HOURS (H4) Currently caught, in this H4 time frame, between the Tenkan-Sen @ 42'510 in support and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 43'028 RSI @ 39.07 and Lagging line moving in a sideways mode. Consider MBB as a good barometer which worked perfectly well so far. 1 HOUR (H1) No change in my view, monitor and watch closely at the CLOUDS, in resistance for now and watch the former short term double bottom reached before yesterday (bottom 1) and yesterday (bottom 2) around the 42'000 support area. Double bottom trigger level @ 42'645, filled and moved higher towards an intraday high of 42'900 before currently coming back (pullback) towards the double top trigger, which also coincides with the H1 Mid Bollinger band. A failure to hold and close on H1 basis above 42'645 would put the focus again to the 42'000 area first. Looking briefly at the ongoing weekly picture , we can see the BTC, currently is still below the Mid Bollinger Band @ 43'746 and roughly in the middle of the weekly clouds support area. RSI @ 47.61 and LAGGING LINE below both TS and KS and below the MBB too. A failure to close on a weekly basis above the KIJUN-SEnN @ 41'279 would give an additional BEARISH SIGNAL, callng for lower level towards the bottom of the weekly clouds support @ 40'000 /38'000. Have a nice Sunday and take care and have fun :-) All the best IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-DAILY-KIJUN-SEN BREAKOUT ...DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a long black candle ( BEARISH ENGULFING ) with, and IT IS VERY IMPORTANT, ITS DAILY CLOSING LEVEL (@ 42'290) , for the first time, since a while, BELOW THE KIJUN-SEN !!! This move must not be underestimated and must be taken very seriously. Indeed, the KIJUN-SEN was the last significant support to look at and the breakout of it is confirming further downside in the cards towards the next support level, which will be this time the weekly TENKAN-SEN @ 41'279 ahead of the DAILY VERY THIN CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (39'854-39'400) slightly below the psychological 40'000 level. Secondary support trend line currently @ 38'739 and primary uptrend support line currently @ 36'225 Watch and monitor ongoing today's price action (pullback) in the direction of the Kijun-Sen recent breakout (actually @ 43'188). In the current environment and in order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk, the BTC should quickly recover and close on a daily closing basis above the KIJUN-SEN , which if it is the case, would at least trigger a PIERCING LINE , (slightly bullish pattern, not as powerful as a Bullish engulfing pattern, but at least a stabilization signal) A failure to do it would be seen as a natural pullback providing selling opportunity (ie selling on rally with a stop loss above 44'000 targeting tactically 40'000 in applying a RR ratio of at least, ideally 1:3). Strategic idea would target 36'225 allowing to increase the level of the stop loss above the ongoing downtrend line resistance in keeping a respective and coherent RR ratio ! As usual watch H4, H1 and shorter intraday time frames to get early signal (s) which will help you to act accordingly in validating or invalidating the DAILY implications previously mentioned. And do not forget, if you like my analysis to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TRADING VIEW (one of the best charting application available at the moment),https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/?share_your_love=Ironman_8848,please do not forget either to add IRONMAN8848 in your following list. Many thanks in advance for your support. Have a great weekend. IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-DAILY-RECOVERY ? YES OR NO ...WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing price action is showing the BITCOIN , roughly in the middle of the clouds support area (48'517 - 38'152); as long as the BTC is not able to recover and hold on a weekly basis closing above the top of the clouds area, the downside risk is still alive. DAILY (D1) After having reached, yesterday an intraday low of 42'741, the BTC managed, for the time being to hold and close above the important support level (KIJUN-SEN) @ 42'900 , also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last rally which started @ 37'567 on March 13th towards a high of 48'234 reached on March 28th. As you can see, on this daily chart , the yesterday's price action triggered a little white candle (very small body) which is showing some lack of momentum, uncertainty and indecision for further development. RSI still below 50, @ 48.61. LAGGING LINE in a sideways mode, still above the daily clouds. UPSIDE : As long as the BTC close on a daily basis above the KIJUN-SEN support line it should be seen as OK and in order to neutralise this still existing downside risk, the BTC needs to rise above, at least the middle of the long black bearish candle@ 44'350 of April 6th, which also coincides with the former downtrend resistance line starting from the former high of 45'850 - MID BOLLINGER BAND (my barometer !) @ 44'771 ! DOWNSIDE : On the other side, a failure to close above 42'900 would be seen as a NEGATIVE SIGNAL, calling for lower levels towards the next support @ 41'641 (61.8% Fib retracement ahead of the very thin daily clouds support area ,(around the psychological 40'000), which is also the 78.6% Fibonacci extension level. 4 HOURS (H4) Below the clouds and MBB and KS . LAGGING LINE below the clouds, KS and TS too. SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION caught between 42'750 and 44'000. Watch the Tenkan-Sen (43'385) on the downside as first support and MBB (44'590) on the upside as first significant resistance. (Corroboration with the daily view) 1 HOUR (H1) BELOW THE CLOUDS in a sideways mode (H1 clouds resistance area between 43'750 and 45'000 Once again WATCH THE CLOUDS IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-DAILY-KIJUN-SEN IN SUPPORT...DAILY (D1) As expected, the failure to stay and hold above both MID BOLLINGER BAND and the top of the TRIANGLE PATTERN, triggered a downside acceleration towards the next support (42'900) mentioned in my yesterday's analysis in making an intraday low early in the morning @ 42'741. The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 42'900 of the 37'567-48'234 rally has been filled and after this decline it is likely to see some technical natural rebound which is expected in the current bearish environment to be relatively limited. Indeed, in order to neutralise the ongoing and persisting downside risk, the BITCOIN should now, at least recover very quickly above the former support area (44'500) which became now the new resistance to cross over and hold above it; slightly above, the next level to watch at very carefully is the TENKAN-SEN (or conversion line) @ 45'237 which worked, as you can see perfectly well in the past either as a support or as resistance (meaning BULLISH above and BEARISH below !) A failure to close on a daily basis above 42'900 would confirm further downside in the cards , calling for lower levels towards 41'641 (61.8% Fib ret) ahead of the psychological 40'000 area which also coincides with the very thin DAILY CLOUDS AREA... RSI below 50, @ 47.35 LAGGING LINE failed to stay above the triangle resistance line and crossed under ! 4 HOURS (H4) Far below the clouds; below MBB, KS and TS too ! RSI in oversold territory,,, and may stay for a while in this mode (check potential bullish divergence ! LAGGING LINE also well below the clouds and TS and KS In order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk in this H4 time frame, the BITCOIN should at least recover and hold on a H4 closing basis above TS (44'428) 1 HOUR (H1) Below the clouds, TS, MBB and KS, RSI in a OVERSOLD TERRITORY, but NO BULLISH DIVERGENCE DETECTED YET. WAIT FOR THIS FIRST SIGNAL WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER A DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMATION AND AT LEAST A SHORT TERM RECOVERY In this hourly time frame, a recovery above the KS, currently @ 44'159 would temporary neutralise this ongoing downside risk and if such kind of price action occurs it should be confirmed by the breakout of the H4 TS @ 44'428 previously mentioned in H4 analysis. Do you like my analysis ? Do you think it bring you additional value to your trading activity ? If your answer is YES, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TRADING VIEW (the best charting application available at the moment)in adding IRONMAN8848 to your following list. Last but not least for those who do not have access to TRADING VIEW, please sign up on the following link (several plans available from basis, free of charge to more sophisticated, against payment) : www.tradingview.com IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
NQ1 100 MF - WATCH MBB !!!DAILY (D1) Under heavy selling pressure very close to the MID BOLLINGER BAND SUPORT LEVEL @ 14'415 !!! [ A daily closing below this level would open the door for lower levels towards the next very important support @ 14'105 which is the KIJUN-SEN. RSI below 49.24 LAGGING LINE moved sharply down after the failure to cross over the daily clouds.. but still above both the KIJUN-SEN and the TENKAN-SEN .. for how long ??? Yesterday's price action triggered a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN (LONG BLACK BEARISH CANDLE) which is confirmed by ongoing today's price action, which is showing a second long black candle currently traded roughly at the bottom of this candle (intraday low being @ 14'446... V ERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ON THE UPSIDE THE WEEKLY LEVEL OF THE KIJUN-SEN @ 14'855 which also coincides with the TOP OF THE DAILY CLOUDS AREA, did not hold and the breakout of this important support level triggered a downside move acceleration towards the 14'500 area . As mentioned previously, today's closing level will give an important information for further development as a failure to clearly recover above the top of the daily clouds area would continue to keep this ongoing selling pressure live. As usual watch shorter intraday time frames to get clues and intermediate signals which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications above mentioned in the daily time frame. Last but not least, in looking at the weekly picture we can see that the NQ100 is again currently traded in the clouds area .. IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Ironman8848
BTC - DAILY - WATCH MBB !DAILY (D1) The yesterday's failure to hold above both ongoing uptrend support line and the TENKAN-SEN triggered a downside move which pushed the BTC towards a low so far @ 44'419, having tested during the night both the MID BOLLINGER BAND support and the former downtrend line (top of the triangle pattern !) Ongoing today's price action will be important and especially its daily closing level; indeed a closing above 44'500 would keep live the TRIANGLE (pullback consolidation) and a closing below would add more trouble putting the focus on lower levels towards the 42'900 (KIJUN-SEN) % 50% Fib re t 37'567 - 48'234) RSI on a downside move mode and LAGGING LINE too ! In order to neutralise this ongoing selling pressure the BTC should at least recover and hold above the TENKAN-SEN @ 46'186 on a daily closing basis ! which if occurs would trigger a bullish engulfing pattern. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the CLOUDS which are very THIN, meaning also very fragile on both side ! Currently the top of the H4 CLOUDS @ 45'958 coincides roughly with the level to break on the daily chart and globally corroborate the global picture. Watch the clouds as a failure to recover and hold above it would increase the selling pressure towards the next support levels previously mentioned in D1... 1 HOUR (H1) Below the CLOUDS too; currently trying to recover above the TENKAN-SEN (@ 45'267). A successful breakout on a hourly closing basis of this level would open the door for 45'810 (KS) ahead of MBB @ 45'955 (also top of the H4 clouds) No bullish divergence detected yet suggesting that recent and current short term price action is, for the time being, corrective only... IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848