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Ironman8848

BTC - D1 - RISING WEDGE IN PROGRESS !D1 : A rising wedge formation is in progress. After the "doji" seen on Saturday, yesterday's price triggered a black candle (bearish), which, nevertheless managed : 1) to hold above the Mid Bollinger Band on a closing basis 2) to close roughly at the top clouds support area 3) to stay inside the rising wedge All those "ingredients" gave some support which is triggering today, a recovery attempt to breakout the former high @ 58'549, which triggered the doji above mentioned. Nevertheless, looking at the technical indicator at the bottom of the chart we can see that, in the past, and this 4 times, when the indicator cross under, (blue line under the red line), a significant trend reversal occured... Will history repeat hitself ? Therefore, I would strongly suggest to closely monitor this indicator on a Daily basis. RISING WEDGE BREAKOUT IMPLICATION : PLUS / MINUS 7'400 POINTS (CURRENTLY) UPSIDE : BREAKOUT @ 61'066 (also 78.6 % Fib ret) - Target : 68'466 DOWNSIDE : BREAKOUT @ 57'150 - Target : 49'750 Levels to watch on D1 basis, are the following : R1 : 58'549 (former high) R2 : 60'000 (psychological and round number level) R3 : 61'066 S1 : 56'000 (Cluster MBB & KJ) S2 : 52'776 (TS) S3 : 52'400 (Bottom of the clouds) Watch H4 for clues Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - W1 - LAST WEEK PRICE ACTION TRIGGERED A BULLISH ENGULFING W1 : As shown on this chart, last week price action triggered a long white candle (bullish engulfing) which neutralized the former downside risk. In addition BTC closed above the Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) which is also a positive sign. The pivot level on this W1 time frame is @ 52'700. Indeed, as seen in the past, this area coincided at the middle of long candle and therefore should also be seen as an equilibrium level. Therefore, BTC is caught now in a 52'700-60'000 trading range (59'979 being the high weekly closing seeing so far !) GLOBAL PICTURE ON A WEEKLY PERSPECTIVE - IMPLICATIONS OF A BREAKOUT OF THIS TRADING RANGE : Upside : Door open for 61'075 ahead of a retest of historical high @ 64'895 Downside : Mid Bollinger Band @ 47'525 Watch D1 for clues Have a nice week and have fun. All the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - BULL TRAP ?D1 : Looking at the Thursday, Friday and Saturday candles we can see the following : 1) Thursday's candle shows a test of the bottom of the clouds @ 52'379 2) Friday's candle shows a sharp and strong reversal pattern (long white candle) with its closing above the clouds 3) After having filled the 61.8% Fib ret @ 58'060 (intraday high @ 58'549) a "DOJI" pattern took place on a closing basis Today's ongoing pattern is showing a "potential" reversal price action; the MID BOLLINGER BAND has already been tested and should, as already mentioned several times, be considered as one of the best LEADING INDICATOR, Therefore, a daily closing below 56'286 would would give an additional support for this ongoing trend reversal. Below : S1 : 55'949 S2 : 53'838 On the upside, in order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk, BTC needs to close today , first of all : 1) above the Mid Bollinger Band and secondly : 2) above the clouds Watch shorter time frames to get clues. Have a nice Sunday All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - IN A ONGOING UPTREND CHANNEL !H4 : In a ongoing uptrend channel. No sign of reversal in this time frame yet. Nevertheless, as mentioned previously on H1 analysis a bearish divergence took place and a trend revesal is in progress in shorter time frames. Theferore, I would strongly suggest to monitor very closely short term time frames (even on M5 for those who are very, very short term oriented !!! to get clues on different time horizon, starting from M5 to H4 on intraday basis. CONCLUSION : On H4, watch the following levels on a closing basis : 1) 58549 2) 56500 A breakout of one of those level would give the temperature for the upcoming periods (see previous analysis for targets) Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1 - BEARISH DIVERGENCE ON RSI !H1 : Last long white candle triggered a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE on a "overbought" zone ! Watch upcoming price action very carefully and first support to look at is the ongoing short term uptrend support line , currently @ 57'500, which also coincides with the Tenkan-Sen ! A failure to hold above this area would open for the following targets : S1 : 57'092 S2 : 56'500 (VERY IMPORTANT) S3 : 55'464 S4 : 54'735 and the clouds support area. On the upside, a recovery above the former high @ 58'549 would put the focus on the psychological level of 60'000 ahead of 61'066 (78.6% Fib ret) M15 : On this very short term picture, the situation is pretty clear, a failure to hold above the CLUSTER (Tenkan-Sen, Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen) would confirm a top in place calling for lower levels. Please note that the short term uptrend support line coincides with the top of the clouds support in this time frame. Clouds a day, clouds always :-) Have a nice trading day All the best and take care Kind regards Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - SWITCH MODE FROM NEUTRAL TO BULLISH ?D1 : Yesterday's candle (long white candle, BULLISH ENGULFING) triggered two important breakout being respectively : 1) The MID BOLLINGER BAND 2) The TOP OF THE D1 CLOUDS This D1 closing, above this cluster (56'500-56700) should be seen as the first signals of a switch NEUTRAL to BULLISH. In addition, the expected target of 58'060 (61.8 % Fibonacci retracement) has been filled too. Nevertheless, in looking to the GLOBAL PICTURE, we as still in a recovery mode towards the former uptrend line support which had been broken on April 18th @ 57'000 and which triggered the downside move towards an intraday low of 47'004 ! Note that the 78.6% Fib ret @ 61'066 coincides also currently with this former uptrend support line. CONCLUSION : + 1) Above Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) 2) Above Mid Bollinger Band 3) Above the clouds 4) Above Kijun-Sen 5) Momentum is for the time being OK 6)Indicators are converging to the NORTH - 1) Below the former uptrend support line 2) Still in a recovery mode (Global picture) 3) 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 58'060 filled 4) + 24,5 % in a couple of days ! 5) Correction could be seen at any time !!! Watch shorter time frames for clues
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
6
BTC - H1 - BREAKOUT OF 55'000 TRIGGERED A SHARP MOVE !H1 : Against my expectation, sorry guys,,, the BTC clearly broke the top of the H1 clouds @ 55'000 an went up in one way towards a high so far of 57'443. Nevertheless, I told you that a sustainable move above 55'000 would force a view reassessment !!! So what next ? D1 : Clouds top breakout in progress and Mid Bollinger Band too. (should be confirmed on a D1 closing later on today !) A daily closing above 56'500 would be seen as a BULLISH signal H4 : Breakout out the clouds and the Mid Bollinger Band triggered a sharp upside move filling on its way the 50 % Fib ret of the 64895-47004 downside move. R1 : 58'060 S1 : 54'700 H1 : After this sharp rally, first signal of a short term reversal is taking place ! On the downside : first significant support @ 55750 On the upside : former high @ 57'443 M15 : Looks like a top is in progress but there is no bearish divergence yet Watch carefully price action over the coming H15 and H1 periods to get validation or invalidation of a top in place. Have a nice evening. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1/M15 - TENKAN-SEN CROSS OVER KIJUN-SEN !H1 : As mentioned yesterday, a potential bullish divergence should not be overlooked ! Indeed, a bullish divergence took place and triggered a recovery, reaching the 50% Fib ret @ 54'439. A "weak" BUY signal has been detected but from current levels, the upside potential looks pretty limited, possible, towards the clouds resistance area (61.8% Fib ret around the top of the clouds !) M15 : The H1 bullish divergence @ 52'379 has been confirmed by a long white candle (bullish engulfing) which put the BTC in a uptrend channel, facing a first resistance area (clouds), staying for a while in the clouds and then breakout on the upside. Currently in the lower part of the bullish channel (below the middle line) Technical indicators looks tired and are showing some reversal signs CONCLUSION : As already mentioned, due to the high volatility seen on the BTC, it is absolutely crucial to monitor very carefully very short term time frames in order to catch early signs of reversal in one way or the other !!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
8
BTC - H4 - CLOUDS, CLOUDS, AND CLOUDS....H4 : 3 successive white candles with a failure for the last one to successfully breakout the top of the clouds (54140), the Kijun-Sen (54289) and the Mid Bollinger Band (54437) !!! This cluster should be seen as the resistance zone to breakout. Indeed, a sustainable move above 54'500 would neutralise the ongoing downside risk and would open the door for further upside towards 55'000 (former congestion top) ahead of 56'500 former high. A failure to do it would put the focus again on the clouds area support ranging currently from 53'900 to 51'000, intermediate supports being : S1 : 52'838 S2 : 51725 S3 : 50610 Watch shorter intraday time frames to get clues :-) All the best and may your long goes up and your short goes down Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - D1 - CLOUDS HOLDD1 : Following the Doji pattern of before yesterday, the yesterday's price action triggered a bearish candle (black) which reached an intraday low of 52379 which was roughly the bottom of the clouds (52401). Once again the clouds, for the time being, hold well, in rejecting the downside breakout attempt. BTC is, now, moving on a sideways mode, inside the cloud and only a breakout of the clouds one way or the other, will switch, respectively to Bullish or Bearish mode, in this D1 time frame. BREAKOUT IMPLICATIONS : Bullish : A sustainable upside breakout of the clouds (56'730), Mid Bollinger Band @ 56363), which has, as already mentioned many times, worked perfectly well, as one of the most relevant leading indicator ! Above focus would be on the 58'000 area Bearish : A failure to stay and hold inside of the clouds would directly put the focus on the Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) @ 51750,(also the 50% Fib ret of the 47004-56500 rally), ahead of the psychological support level of 50'000 Watch intraday time frames to get clues :-) Have a nice trading day and all the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !H4 : Unsuccessful attempt to : 1) Breakout the ongoing downtrend channel on the upside 2) Breakout the clouds and hold above it triggered a renewal selling pressure. Indicators are turning down First support is @ 54'250 (former congestion support zone in this time frame), which is slightly above a more important support level, which is the Mid Bollinger Band @ 54'088 Below, watch : S1 : 52'872 S2 : 50'631 (bottom of the clouds) A successful sustainable upside breakout would put the focus on : R1 . 56'500 (former high) R2 : 60'000 /61'066 CONCLUSION : Watch carefully ongoing price action on shorter time frames (H1 and M15) to be able to detect early signal (s9, as divergences, which will allow you to adapt quickly your trading plan in acting accordingly. Have a nice trading day All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
US GOV BONDS 10 YR YIELD - M1/W1/D1 - POINTING TO THE SOUTHM1 : After having nearly reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 3.25% to 0.3620 % move, high being 1.7740 % !, the ongoing current monthly price action is showing a potential trend reversal in progress, which could trigger, tomorrow, on a monthly closing level, a "DARK CLOUD COVER" (Wait for confirmation) W1 : Double top price action in progress with its trigger level @ 1.5890 which has already be broken several times so far but not confirmed yet ! A breakout confirmation of that level (1.5890 %), on a weekly closing level, would give a technical target of 1.4040 %. Important to note that the level of D1 Mid Bollinger Band i@ 1.3490 % and a move below that level would be the second validation signal of this double top formation. VERY STRONG SUPPORT ZONE BELOW BEING THE CLOUDS AREA !!! D1 : Despite the yesterday's breakout attempt, the ongoing downtrend (in yield) price action is still, for the time being, intact, calling if 1.5890 is broken,for the target above mentioned of 1.4040 %. ALSO VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE LEVEL OF THE DOUBLE TOP TARGET AT 1.4040 % COINCIDES WITH THE D1 BOTTOM CLOUDS SUPPORT LEVEL !!! On the upside, the ongoing downtrend resistance line should be seen as the first important level to break and this on a D1 closing basis ! In case of a confirmation of this breakout, we may see a retest of former high 1.70-1.77 which should, if seen provide, again, good selling (yield) opportunities. Watch intraday shorter time frames, (H4,H1 and M15) to get intermediate signal (s), such as divergence (s) which would allow you to adapt your trading plan in acting accordingly. Have a nice trading day. All the best, take care. And last but not least, if you find my technical analysis valuable for your trading, please do not forget to like it and if not done yet add me on your following list. Ironman8848 :-)
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1 - WATCH THE CLOUDSH1 : Currently in the clouds (neutral zone !) As shown on this chart, after several attempts to get in the clouds, last H1 candle (black) broke the Support line (red line). What does it mean ? Well, following the recent and ongoing price we, normally should see a follow through, calling for further downside towards the bottom of the clouds @ 52872, which coincides also with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last 47’004-56500 rally. CONCLUSION : Once again, the clouds will show the direction… and watch M15 to get intermediate signal (s)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - YESTERDAY'S PRICE ACTION TRIGGERED A "DOJI"D1 : Yesterday’s price action triggered a “Doji” pattern (undecision and uncertainty) with a closing level still inside the clouds. In addition, BTC failed to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band resistance level, currently @ 56’691 which by the way, the same level than the top clouds resistance level. RSI is below 50 @ 47,18 ! Today’s ongoing price action is currently roughly in the middle level of the clouds area which Should be seen as a NEUTRAL zone Indeed, in the D1 time frame, only a EXIT of the clouds area would confirm a new trading range with the following implications : Bullish : A breakout and sustainable move above 56’700 would give the following targets : R1 : 58’060 R2 : 60’000 / 61’066 Bearish : A breakout and sustainable move below 52’400 would give the following targets : S1 : 51750 S2 : 50631 CONCLUSION : A sideways price action (56’500-52’400) will be seen as long as we stay inside the clouds ! Supports within this range are : S1a) 54’250 S2b) 52’870 S3C) 52’400 Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1/M15 - TRADING IN THE ZONE - WATCH THE CLOUDS !H1 : Closing price of the last H1 candle was below the Mid Bollinger Band and outside of the Former ongoing uptrend channel. Watch pullback which will validate if it failed to reenter in the former uptrend channel or invalidate in case of a return in this uptrend channel. A confirmation of this breakout (expected) would put the focus on the 54’567 level and then Towards the clouds support level, ranging from between the 23.6 % and the 50% Fib ret, respectively 53’730 and 51’400) A successful pullback will support the former ongoing bullish price action within the former uptrend channel opening the door for higher levels. M15 : Currently clouds support zone breakout in progress !!! A failure to stay and hold above the clouds would open the door for targets mentioned in H1 Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1/H4 - CRITICAL PIVOT POINT TO BREAK !D1 : Indeed after having missed to reach, for few points, the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 55’949 (high being 55'810 !) BTC is trying to break the top of the clouds area which also coincides with Kijun-Sen.(55’949). Therefore, today's price action and its closing level will be very important as a breakout of the clouds would be the first confirmation on this time frame that BTC would switch from a neutral mode (in the clouds) to a bullish mode, above the clouds. Second confirmation would be a sustainable move above the MID BOLLINGER BAND, (56'875) which is as you know one of my favorite leading indicators & barometer, as repeated frequently in my previous analysis. Global picture is still under the influence of a broad rising wedge pattern and recent and current price action, could also be seen as a natural pullback against the breakout of this pattern, which occurred on April 18th) and which, also coincides roughly with the 61.8% Fib ret @ 57'707. H4 : Secondary downtrend line resistance has been broken but currently, still in its broad downtrend channel (primary downtrend !). facing, also, a tough resistance area to break which is the top of the clouds resistance area. last H4 candle triggered a "shooting star" which is normally interpreted as a first signal of a trend reversal !!! (need to be confirmed by at least the next candle and ideally on 3 candles observation. In addition, technical indicators are turning down showing bearish divergences. Supports are mentioned on the chart and Mid Bollinger Band, in H4 time frame is @ 52840 ! CONCLUSION : D1 : Currently in an uptrend channel Warning : trend angle !!! Wait today’s closing level 3 scenarios : A) Bullish : above the clouds B) Neutral : within the clouds C) Bearish : below the clouds H4 : Upcoming H4 periods will show the direction Watch H1 and M15 to get validation or invalidation Have a nice trading day All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - HANGING MAN VALIDATION !H4: Failure to recover, firstly, above the secondary downtrend line resistance and secondly, the body (black candle) of the last H4 period, are the first signs of the validation of the “Hanging Man” pattern, previously mentioned which should now trigger further downside, focusing on the Fibonacci retracements levels and Mid Bollinger Band, which are : S1 : 52658 S2 : 51577 S3 : MBB 51183 S3 : 50704 S4 : 49831 ONLY A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY ABOVE THE FORMER HIGH @ 54405 AND ABOVE THE CLOUDS, WOULD INVALIDATE THIS EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO ! Watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) Have a nice trading day All the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H1/M15 - TRADING IN THE ZONE - AT A GLANCEH1 : Caught in a sideways range (52630 – 54400) and still above MBB (53673). A failure to stay and hold above MBB would open the door for the 23.6 % fib ret @ 52658 ahead of 51’577. On the upside, a breakout of the former high @ 54’405 would be the first signal of a switch from a short term sideways (neutral) price action to a bullish one ! M15 : An Head and Shoulder pattern is in progress. For the time being, BTC is still above the clouds which once again worked perfectly well in rejecting, yesterday’s evening a downside breakout attempt around the 52630 level which was roughly, also the 23.6% Fib ret above mentioned. CONCLUSION : M15 : Watch carefully Mid Bollinger Band and the clouds as short term leading indicators H1 : Watch 53’060 as the first support
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1/H4 - HANGING MAN "DOJI" ON H4 !!!D1 : Yesterday's strong recovery price action triggered a long white candle which is, usually considered as a BULLISH signal if confirmed by the next candle ! Therefore, as you can see on this time frame, BTC is, after having filling the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 53'838 and making an intraday high, yesterday @ 54'405 (in the top range of my target mentioned in my previous short term tactical analysis !), showing some lack of momentum, at least for the time being. In addition, current level 54'000 is roughly in the middle of the D1 clouds which should be seen as NEUTRAL ! H4 : Last H4 candle triggered an HANGING MAN pattern (doji) which should be considered as a warning of a potential trend reversal (need to be confirmed on a closing H4 basis by the ongoing candle. Moreover, this bearish pattern took place roughly at the level of the secondary downtrend line resistance around 54'000 too. CONCLUSION : D1 : Today's closing will validate or invalidate the ongoing trend reversal (new uptrend channel) BULLISH : Next resistances : 54'405 (former high) ahead of 55'950 Supports : see H4 below H4 : Ongoing H4 period will validate or invalidate the Hanging Man pattern Scenarios : BULLISH : H4 closing level above former high @ 54'405 would neutralise the downside risk BEARISH : H4 closing level below 54'000 would confirm the Hanging Man pattern and open the door for further downside Important to note : A lower closing price would reinforce the confirmation of the bearish pattern previously mentioned !! S1 : 52'650 S2 : 51'577 S3 : 51'190 (Mid Bollinger) VERY IMPORTANT !!! S4 :50'705 (Kijun-Sen)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H1/M15 - TRADING IN THE ZONE - AT A GLANCEH1 : Last H1 candle triggered a doji pattern on a closing basis. Recent price action failed to breakout the ongoing downtrend channel which is still valid. Watch former high @ 52750 as resistance level to break M15 : As mentioned earlier in my previous M5/M15 analysis, a potential double top formation is in progress (not confirmed yet, trigger level being @ 51715 SCENARIOS : BULLISH Breakout confirmed by at least 2 closing above 52750 would open the door for a new trading range from 52750 to 55000 NEUTRAL Continuation of the recent sideways price action (51715-52785) BEARISH Double top trigger level activated opening the door for a target @ 50680 Such kind of price action would trigger a test of the former resistance (purple line) and also the M15 clouds support zone
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC -W1 - LAST WEEK WAS A LONG BLACK CANDLE...W1 : Last week price action confirmed the bearish engulfing pattern triggered a week before. As you can see on this chart and as already told in shorter time frames, we switched from a bull trend (in green) to a BEAR one (in red) ! Ongoing price action is showing a potential recovery in progress.. but this should be confirmed on a weekly closing. Therefore, over the next daily sessions, I strongly suggest to monitor very closely price action on D1 and shorter time frames to get intermediate signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly. CONCLUSION : On a weekly basis and in order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, we need to see a weekly closing at least above the middle body (52700) of the last long black candle; such kind of price action would trigger a piercing line pattern, first signal of a potential trend reversal. A failure to do it would confirm the downtrend still in place. Have a nice week All the best May your long goes up and your short goes down Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - D1 - IN ROUTE FOR 46'847 (50 % FIBO RETRACEMENT) !D1 : Ongoing downtrend still intact,(downtrend channel) currently trying to breakout the D1 clouds support zone (wait for Daily closing level !) Looking ahead the next significant support will be 46847, which is the 50 % Fibonacci retracement of the 28'800-64895 rally. All technical indicators are converging to the South and no early signal of potential bullish divergences yet in this D1 time frame. As already mentioned over the last couple of days, the broad strategical trend switched from bullish (uptrend channel in green) to BEARISH (downtrend channel in red !). In order to reverse the current price action, BTC should recover firstly above the clouds support and hold sustainably above it. A move back inside the clouds would put temporary the trend in a neutral mode waiting for a new trend direction. Have a nice Sunday, have fun and take care. Please, if you find my work valuable for you, do not forget to like it, to talk to your friends and if not done yet to add me in your following list :-) Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3