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Ironman8848

BTC - H1 - SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS !H1 : Successive failures to breakout the clouds resistance zone triggered a sideways price action and as a result a symmetrical triangle pattern (no higher highs and no lower lows either !) took place, currently very close to a downside breakout, which should be confirmed, of course. If this breakout occurs, the expected scenario will be the following : 1) breakout 2) pullback towards the triangle base 3 a) failure to recover and then down again for a technical target of 46371 ! 3 b) successful upside breakout which would open the door to reenter in the former triangle pattern and put the focus on the clouds resistance again ranging from 50'000 to 51500 M15 : Uptrend line support has been tested twice so far and a short term recovery attempt is currently in process. Watch clouds resistance in which you can see, Tenkan-Sen, Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen as the cluster resistance area. A successfull upside breakout of the clouds would postpone the expected above mentioned expected scenario in putting the focus for a retest of former highs of 50500-50900 CONCLUSION : Broad and strategical trend remains bearish and as mentioned yesterday, any countertrend tactical position should be monitored with a disciplinated Risk Reward ratio, accordingly coupled with a tight stop loss Keep in mind that BTC is not a strategic buy on dips, but is currently a SELL ON RALLY, calling for further downside as any rebound should still be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY, and NOT A STRATEGICAL TREND REVERSAL YET !!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H1/M15 - ONGOING BEARISH PRICE ACTION...H1 : In a broad downtrend channel with current level still below the clouds ! Very short term sideways channel ranging between former high @ 51378 and former low @ 49388 Breakout of one of those level will open a new trading range. M15 : Caught in this very short term sideways channel ! As mentioned in H1, a breakout of this channel will open new trading range, respectively 49388-47555/46000 on the downside (expected !) and 51378- 52245/54000 (see H1 chart) on the upside Have a nice weekend All the best and have fun Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - D1/H4 - ONGOING BEARISH PRICE ACTION !D1 : Yesterday's price action triggered a hammer ! Unfortunately, lack of momentum did not offer further support for a reversal upside continuation. Indeed, today's ongoing price action is rather showing the opposite, current price action should, of course, be confirmed by the closing level at the end of the day. Today's closing will be very important because it may validate a clouds support breakout or not !!! and the impact will determine the marked direction for the coming session (s). Globally, as shown on this D1 chart, BTC switched from a former uptrend channel (in green) to a new downtrend channel (in red), which means that the trading mode also switch from already a couple of days ! from a buy on dips to A SELL ON RALLY !! Conclusion : No change in my view, I still expect further downside towards 46847 ahead of 42588 In order to invalidate this expected scenario, we need to see a recovery, first of all above the clouds and more important above the MID BOLLINGER BAND, which is, as already mentioned several times, THE LEADING INDICATOR, and which should not be underestimated. H4 : In a ongoing bearish price action (broad downtrend channel), with a secondary downtrend in place. Cluster resistance being for the time being in this H4 time frame around 52400 ahead of former triangle support which became now the new resistance area, currently around 53'200 ONLY A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY ABOVE 53'200 (H4), WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THIS EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1/M15 - RECOVERY ATTEMPT IN PROGRESS !H1 : After having reached a low of 47555, BTC is currently trying to recover. On this time frame a move back above 49475 ,would be the first positive signal for further upside. Indeed, such kind of price action above the Tenkan-Sen would open the door for the next resistance (psychological 50'000 level) ahead of the very important level of 51005 which is the Mid Bollinger Band ! A failure to do it would simply confirm the ongoing bearish price action calling for lower levels mentioned in H4 and D1 (see previous analysis posted early this morning) M15 : Ongoing recovery attempt, with the following resistances levels which are respectively : 49346 - 49900 - 50453 Interesting to note that those resistance levels coincides also with the clouds resistance zone A breakout of the latter resistance above mentioned would open the door for 52'245 (former double top formation) CONCLUSION : ON THE UPSIDE : WATCH THE CLOUDS ON M15 WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND ON H1 ON THE DOWNSIDE : WATCH THE FORMER LOW @ 47'555 FAILURE TO STAY AND HOLD ABOVE IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TARGETS MENTIONED IN LONGER TIME FRAMES.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4 - TRIANGLE TARGET @ 48232 FILLED, WHAT NEXT ?H4 : The expected bearish scenario occured and the triangle target @ 48232 has been reached ! So what next ? Looking ahead, the global picture remains heavy and more downside is on the cards While on very short term, it is likely to see some technical rebound which should still be seen as a corrective move only, and NOT AS A TREND REVERSAL YET !! Therefore, as usual, I would strongly suggest to screen carefully shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) such as short term bullish divergences in order, for those who want to play tactically a short term rebound which should be monitored in a disciplinated manner (Risk Reward ratio)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
VIX - GLOBAL PICTURE M1/W1/D1 - SOMETHING IS COOKING !M1 : Still above the long term support trend line (to be confirmed at month end closing !) W1 : Within an ongoing downtrend channel, in a downtrend (red line) and below the clouds. Still below all important indicators such as Mid Bollinger Band, Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. Nevertheless, this week price action is showing, for the fist time since several weeks, first sign of a potential recovery (white candle in progress !) D1 : In a broad falling wedge pattern, below the clouds and an ongoing trend reversal progress. Currently above Tenkan-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band. A breakout confirmation of the Kijun-Sen on a daily closing would add further support for this expected recovery calling for an upside wedge breakout ahead of D1 clouds resistance area ranging, currently from 24.55 to 28.25
CBOE:VIXLong
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1/M15 - RECOVERY ATTEMPT...H1 : Low so far @ 48338, near the H4 triangle target @ 48232. After this sharp decline it is obvious to see some recovery attempt that we are seing now. Nevertheless, for the time being such kind of rebound should still be seen as a corrective move only with a relatively limited upside potential. Indeed, in order to confirm a sustainable "recovery", BTC should quickly recover, firstly above the 52220 area (former congestion support-4 succesive dojis) and secondly above the Mid Bollinger Band @ 52975. A failure to do it, would confirm a downside move continuation, calling for 48232 ahead of lower levels. Last but not least, in H1 time frame, indicators are still converging to the South ! M15 : Ongoing recovery attempt process, watch Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 51172 as the first significant resistance level. In order to neutralise the ongoing bearish pressure, BTC should recover and hold above 52250 (former double top in M15) On the downside, same as mentioned above for H1 Have a nice trading day. All the best and may your long goes up and your short goes down and do not forget the market is always right :-) Finally, if you find my analysis, valuable for you, please do not hesitate to like it and if not done yet, add my on your following list .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - POTENTIAL HEAD AND SHOULDER IN PROGRESS !D1 : Nice recovery price action seen over the last couple of days with, for the time being, still a failure to breakout on the upside the psychological resistance level of 60'000 (high so far being 59'816 !). D1 is showing a potential Head and Shoulder formation in progress. In addition, coupled with this potential reversal pattern there is also a double top in progress, first top, tooking place on March 18th & 20th (already a small double top) and the second top being currently in progress. Interesting to note the perfect "doji" pattern triggered yesterday ! Watch at shorter time frames to get intermediate signal (s) which would validate or invalidate this potential reversal pattern ! Have a nice trading day All the best and may your long goes up and your short goes down.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
6
US10Y - D1 - POTENTIAL DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Recent recovery seen over the last couple of days is triggering a potential double top formation in progress. (trigger level to confirm this pattern @ 1.3860 and target 1.1890 which is also currently the level of the trend support line which started in August 2020 and also to some extend the clouds support area. RSI is also showing a bearish divergence in progress (wait for confirmation) A failure to hold above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line @ 1.4560) would be one the firs signal of a trend reversal) Global Watch H4 and shorter time frames for clues
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H1/M15 - ONGOING CORRECTIVE MOVE IN PROGRESS !H1 : The expected Head and Shoulders formation mentioned in my yesterday's analysis failed !! As mentioned in my previous D1/H4 analysis, it it likely to see some correction after the rally seen recently. The ongoing expected move is under way calling for a move towards the former high @ 52652 which was the former resistance and becomes now the new first significant support level. A breakout of that level would put the focus on MBB, currently @ 52161 and KS @ 51908 M15 : Looking at the latest development, we can clearly see the uptrend line support (in green) which coincides, currently, also with the clouds support zone and also with the first Fibonacci retracement, 38.2 % @ 52516. Interesting to note that the 50 % Fib ret is also the bottom of the clouds Watch carefully ongoing price action over the coming period (s) Have a nice trading day All the best Take care
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - CLOUDS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ATTEMPT !H4 : Recent recovery from the bottom of the clouds which worked perfectly well as a support area, we can see now a breakout attempt of the top of the H4 clouds in progress ! Important to note that, not only the top of the clouds are under attack but also the Kijun-Sen (Base line). Therefore, closing level of the ongoing H4 price action will be important to watch at. Indeed, a breakout success of the clouds would be the first signal of a potential upside move continuation putting the focus on the second obstacle to go through, which is the current top (dotted line) of the ongoing downtrend channel. Such kind of price action would then open the door for the pivot trading zone ranging from the psychological 50000 level and the former high @ 52650. On the other side, an upside breakout failure, would then put the focus on the "CLUSTER" of 48600-48500 (Mid Bollinger Band and Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) and once again the bottom of the clouds support zone ! Below watch the support pivot zone ranging from 46300 (previous lows and 43000 Feb 28th low) Watch H1 and M15 to get early signal (s).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - STILL UNDER THE MID BOLLINGER BAND !D1 : Still in a broad bearish channel and below the Mid Bollinger Band. Yesterday's price action triggered a doji ("hanging man" or "dragonfly", confirmation will be given on D1 closing) ! Globally, as long as BTC does not breakout the downdrend channel first and does not move and hold above MBB and Kijun-Sen (Base line), price action seen over the last couple of sessions remains a corrective move in a bear trend. As told several times, ONLY a CLEAR breakout confirmation of the "CLUSTER" three levels above mentioned, would force to a view reassessment of the current scenario which potentially may change from bearish to bullish. On the downside, watch Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) @ 47836, as the first significant support. In the meantime watch shorter time frames to get intermediate clues for ongoing price action Have a nice Sunday and have fun. All the best and take care
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - MID BOLLINGER BAND AS THE LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Mid Bollinger Band remains "THE" leading indicator. Indeed, after having closed, before yesterday above MBB, the failure, yesterday to confirm it, triggered a new selling pressure and as a result, the previous bullish candle has been neutralized by a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday which close below MBB; Today's ongoing candle is pointing to the SOUTH, currently below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen having already reached an intraday low of 46294 early this morning. In order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action, BTC should at least recover firstly above KS @ 48200 and then much more important above MBB @ 50019 and expecially hold and stay above it. It is not a surprise that MBB coincides roughly with the psychological level of 50'000, former support level which becomes now the new resistance level to break ! In this time frame, once again, today's closing will be very important. H4 : Currently trying to breakdown the support line of the downtrend channel. Clouds worked well so far as support zone in rejecting a first breakout attempt. Globally picture remains heavy and for the time being on this time frame, it looks more a SELL on rally than a BUY on dips. In order to neutralise the downside risk in this time frame, BTC need, firstly to recover above the resistance line of the downtrend channel and secondly above MBB and hold above it As usual watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate clue in shorter time frames. Have a great trading day and please, if you like my analysis, do not forget to like it and add my on your following list. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1/M15 - WARNING POTENTIAL DOUBLE BOTTOM @ 47520 !H1 : Breakout of the clouds support zone triggered another wave of selling pressure which pushed down the BTC towards a low so far of 47520. Indicators are not showing bullish divergence yet on this time frame. M15 : Picture slightly different where a potential bullish divergence might be seen !!! Therefore, watch carefully price action over the coming M15 period to validate a trend reversal If it is the case watch MBB (48805) as first significant short term resistance level On the downside, an invalidation of a bullish divergence would directly put the focus on the 47000 area ahead of the 45300-43000 pivot support area mentioned on H4
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC -D1/H4 - WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND AS LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Strong upside move towards an intraday high of 52652 seen yesterday with a closing level slightly above MBB. Today's price action is currently below the psychological level of 50000. Once again, today's closing will be important for the coming session (s) H4 : Failure to hold above the clouds resistance, triggered a new selling pressure, pushing the BTC down again, towards, so far, the middle of the clouds, which is also MBB on this time frame ! Therefore, MBB (@ 49000) should be seen as the first support ahead of KS (@ 47836) and slightly lower, the clouds bottom zone Global picture in H4 could be resume as follow : UPSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 50000 - 52650 DOWNSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 45300 - 43000 Watch carefully H1 and M15 for intermediate clues
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1/M15 - IN A SHORT TERM BEAR TREND....H1 : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement filled @ 49201 (intraday low so far @ 49000) Last candle (bullish engulfing) might trigger a recovery In order to invalidate the ongoing bearish price action, BTC needs to recover above MBB currently @ 50784 and also above the downtrend line resistance. On the downside, clouds zone should be watch as the first support area. M15: Below the clouds and below MBB, looks like a corrective move in a short term bear trend. Watch MBB @ 50374 as the first significant resistance level to break. A failure to hold above 49000 (today's low) would put the focus on clouds support zone (48500-48000) ahead of 47069 (March 2nd low).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1/M15 - SHORT TERM TREND REVERSAL !H1: A bearish divergence took place on the top of the recovery, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern ! Ongoing reversal nearly already reached the 38.2% Fib ret of the last rally (47069-52652) Looks like further downside is on the cards M15 : Recent price action broke TS, MBB and KS. Watch 50500-50000 as next support area. 50519 being the 38,2% Fib ret and 49860 the 50 % Fib ret ahead of 49201 which is the 61.8%. All those levels coincides with the clouds support area Monitor closely price action on M15 and H1
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - WATCH PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 50000 !D1 : Cluster remains around the psychological level of 50000. Indeed, this level coincides with both, the current level of the downtrend line resistance and with the Mid Bollinger Band.(49925) Therefore, a move and a D1 closing level above 50000 could change the current bearish mode to a bullish one. Wait today's closing for confirmation ! H4 : Failure to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band level triggered a strong recovery. Watch carefully price action on this time frame, BTC is currently trying to break the former downtrend line resistance in entering in a very strong resistance zone which is the clouds zone and which is VERY THICK, therefore should not be easy to break. Important to note that the former high (@ 50250) is close to the 50 % Fibonacci retracement level (@ 50620) which coincides with the top of the clouds. In case of a continuation upside move towards those levels, do not forget that a potential double top could take place with a trigger level roughly at the level of the Mid Bollinger Band support currently @ 47216 !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H1/M15 - H & S FAILED BY A BULLISH DIVERGENCE !H1 : The expected Head and Shoulder formation failed ! Indeed the yesterday's intraday low @ 47069, triggered a bullish divergence on RSI, confirmed, later by other indicators which triggered a short term reversal in building an uptrend channel. On its way up, BTC recovered above KS, TS and MBB which now should be seen as the cluster support @ 48440 on H1 time frame. Interesting to note that this new short term support zone coincides also with the clouds top area and a failure to hold above it would put the focus on the bottom of the clouds. Clouds are thick therefore also difficult to break ! Currently, attempting to breakout the former downtrend resistance line. On the upside, the D1 cluster is @ 50000. M15 : Above the clouds and KS, MBB and TS. Also above the former downtrend line resistance. Watch carefully price action over the coming M15 period for validation or invalidation of this downtrend line resistance line and keep in mind support zone between 49000/48950. On the upside watch 49500/49735 as first resistance levels to break.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD - D1H4 - CLUSTER 49900-50300 D1 & CLOUDS H4D1 : Very strong price action occurred yesterday by one of the longest white candle (BULLISH ENGULFING) seen so far (Opening 45262 / Closing 49629 + 4367 / + 9.64 %), similar to the one seen on Feb 19th (Opening 51560 / Closing 55989 + 4429 / + 8.59 %). Today's price action triggered an intraday high so far @ 50250 which is roughly the level of Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) and which should also, as Mid Bollinger Band, be seen as very important level to break. Therefore this "cluster" (49900-50300) should be watch carefully on D1 basis for ongoing structural development. The key pivot level remains 51530 and a clear breakout of that level would clearly open the door for a retest of the highs above 58000. On the downside a failure to hold above Kijun-Sen @ 47486 would put the focus again on 45000-43000 H4 : After having broken respectively, Tenkan-Sen, Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen, BTC is now facing a new obstacle to breakout which is : THE CLOUDS ! Indeed, as mentioned yesterday in this dynamic recovery it reached first the 38.2% Fib ret @ 48878 and then nearly filled in the 50 % Fib ret @ 50687 with an intraday high, so far @ 50250. OUTLOOK : UPSIDE, the clouds are clearly the zone to break and which is the case would put the focus on the D1 key pivot level @ 51530 ahead of the 61.8% Fib ret @ 52496 DOWNSIDE, the "cluster" (TS, MBB, KS) respectively @ 47213, 46777 and 46635 should be seen as the first significant area. Have a nice trading day and if you like my analysis do not forget to like it and add Ironman8848 in your following list.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1 - H & S CONFIRMED !H1 : Failure to hold above the neckline of the H & S triggered its breakout which confirm this reversal pattern, calling for a target of roughly 46265 which is also the bottom zone of the H1 clouds support. Breakout of the clouds would, as mentioned in my previous D1/H4 analysis, put the focus on 45000-43000. A pullback attempt might be seen but likely to be limited; only a recovery above the former neckline (48620) would neutralise the ongoing downside risk. Monitor carefully price action on M15 to get intermediate clues
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTCUSD - H4 - BREAKOUT ATTEMPT OF THE DOWNTREND CHANNEL TOP...H4 : Last candle closed slightly up, above the top of the downtrend channel line and also above Mid Bollinger Band (46091). Nevertheless, this breakout, for the time being looks very fragile and we need to wait the next H4 closing for confirmation. Indeed, an upside breakout confirmation would then open the door for 47550 which is the level of Kijun-Sen in H4. On the opposite, a failure to hold above the top of the downtrend channel, would, again put the focus on lower level with Tenkan-Sen as a first support (45298). Global picture remains heavy as we are still under the clouds. Watch H1 for clues
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - H1/M15 - CLOUDS BREAKOUT ATTEMPT ON H1...H1 : Currently trying to breakout : 1) Clouds resistance 2) Downtrend channel top resistance line 3) 23.6% Fibonacci retracement @ 46639 Indicators are showing some lack of momentum Successive "little" candles are also showing somme uncertainty which may add somme renewing selling pressure on the upcoming hours without a confirmation of a real breakout by white candles. M15 : We are still in the primary uptrend channel which began yesterday @ 43021; nevertheless, a new sideways-slightly down, secondary channel took place a couple of hours ago and a failure to recover and hold above former high @ 46875 would confirm a very short term in place, calling for lower levels, towards the clouds support area first. Continue to monitor closely short term time frames to get intermediate information for validation or invalidation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1