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Ironman8848

BTCUSD- W1 - MIRROR EFFECTW1 : Global picture is showing a "mirror effect" in progress. Last week price action triggered a long black candle (bearish engulfing pattern) which filled the 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement @ 45491 (3850-58354) and reached an intra-week low of 43021 ! After this sharp downside, it was more than likely to see some recovery which took place in pushing up the BTC towards a high, so far of 46875, which globally should still be seen as an "healthy" corrective move in a still a broad bear trend ! In order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action, in W1 , we need to see a move which should break, at least the level of 51362, which is the middle of the bearish engulfing pattern). Watch D1 for clues Have a nice week
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTCUSD - H4 - DOWNTREND CHANNEL INTACTH4 : Last candle triggered also a Doji pattern which is showing somme uncertainty and indecision in making a pause in this ongoing bearish price action. As a result, we can see now a new recovery attempt which will face a first resistance -@ 46074 (TS) ahead of MBB (47213) which is also currently the top of the downtrend channel. Therefore, for the time being, we can continue to consider current price action as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend. Watch channel breakout (s) for clues and monitor closely H1, M15 and M4 for intermediate validation or invalidations signal (s)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
7
BTC/USD - D1 - YESTERDAY'S CLOSING TRIGGERED A DOJI PATTERN !D1 : In a broad bear trend downtrend channel, yesterday's price action triggered a "doji", which close just above the important support level of Kijun-Sen. Today's ongoing price action, broke KS and former low of 44151 in reaching a new intraday low @ 43782 ! Indicators are still pointing to the South. In addition, current price action is showing that BTC is traded below the middle of the donwtrend channel. Next important support to look at is @ 43577 (50% Fib ret) and a breakout of that level would put directly the focus on the 42000 area (former high of Jan 8th) ahead of the psychological level of 40'000 (40089 being the 61.8% Fib ret) Last but not least the 43500-40000 is very fragile (long white bullish candle of Feb 8th, thanks to Elon !) and therefore should be quickly broken... In order to neutralise the current downside risk in this bearish price action, BTC should recover at least above KS, currently @ 46868. Watch and monitor carefully H4, H1, M15 and M5 for intermediate validation or invalidation of this expected bearish scenario
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
6
BTC - H4 - LAST CANDLE TRIGGERED A DOJI !H4 : Recent price action triggered a doji pattern (indecision and uncertainty), with its intra H4 low testing Tenkan-Sen. It is currently traded below the middle of the short term uptrend channel. Continue to watch Tenkan-Sen as a first support and then bottom of the channel; lower focus will be on former low @ 44151 ahead of 43577 (50% Fib ret). On the upside Kijun-Sen (48115) as the first significant resistance ahead of MBB (48319). An upside breakout of the D1/H4 downtrend channel, would neutralise the ongoing bearish price action. Monitor closely price action on H1, M15 and M5
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - H1/M15 - CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY IN A H4/D1 BEAR TREND !H1 : Current price action is showing a sideways-slightly up channel within a broad bear trend in H4 and D1. Kijun-Sen rejected a breakout attempt and is likely to trigger some rebound again. No change in my view, watch the clouds and the Fibonacci retracement, respectively the 50% @ 48115 (also the top of the clouds !) and the 61.8% @ 49050. A confirmed breakout of those levels would neutralise the current ongoing bearish price action. M15 : Sideways-slightly up channel formation. Watch carefully breakout of the channel either on the upside or on the downside which will show the next price action
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4 - STILL BELOW BOTH KIJUN-SEN AND MID BOLLINGER BAND !H4 : Currently in a sideways-slightly up trading channel.. but still below both KS and MBB ! As mentioned in my previous analysis (see D1), recent and current price action should still be seen as CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY and not as a trend reversal yet ! First significant support remains Tenkan-Sen ahead of the bottom line of the channel. Below focus will be on yesterday's low @ 44151 and 50 % Fib ret @ 43577. Note that the 61.8 % Fib ret is @ 40089 which should be seen a strategic technical target ! As usual watch and monitor carefully price action seen on shorter time frames (H1 to M5)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC D1 - KIJUN SEN HOLD !D1 : After having broke in an intraday basis the Kijun-Sen and reached a low of 44151, BTC recovered nicely, to close @ 46315, above KS. Global picture remains heavy. Indeed, despite the rebound seen recently, BTC is still below Mid Bollinger Band which remains a very good "barometer" indicator as you can see in the past. Therefore, I still consider current price action as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY... and not as a trend reversal yet. Only a move above Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 49644 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario with a confirmation on a breakout of KS (51253) and pivot resistance level @ 51530. Watch H4 and shorter time frames to detect intermediates validation or invalidation signals. Have a great weekend. All the best and may your long goes up and your short goes down...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - M15 - RECOVERY ATTEMPT ! WATCH CLOUDS .M15 : Following the expected ongoing downside move towards a low of 44151, BTC is trying to recover. Be very cautious as for the time being, recent price action seen from the low is a corrective move only in a broad bear trend and should not be seen as a trend reversal yet. Indeed, in order to neutralise the ongoing selling pressure, BTC should at least recover above 47179, which is, first of all the 38.2% Fib ret and secondly, also the base of the clouds resistance area. A move to this level would be the first step of a potential recovery as the second obstacle which should be overcome is the top of the cloud, currently @ 48700. Only a move back above the latter level would neutralise the ongoing bearish price action. A failure to hold above today's low @ 44151 would put the focus on the very important support level at around 42000, which was also the former intraday high of Jan 8th ! Global picture looks heavy !!!! Watch carefully price action on M15 and look for validation on H1
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1/H4 - BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN ON D1 - MEGAPHONE ON H4D1 : Yesterday's price action triggered a Bearish Engulfing pattern with the first time a closing level below both Mid Bollinger Band and strategic uptrend support line ! Levels to watch now are the following : Upside : R1 : 49260 (MBB) R2 : 50000 (former strategic uptrend & psychological level) R3 : 51530 % 51600 (Pivot level and Tenkan-Sen) Downside : S1 : 46000 (today's intraday low) S2 : 45343 (Kijun-Sen) S3 : 44845 (former double bottom) A failure to hold above 44845 would put the focus on 43577 (50 % Fib ret) ahead of 40089 (61.8% Fib ret) H4 : A "Megaphone" pattern is in progress ! Such kind of formation may either breakout on the upside or on the downside Interesting to note that the lines of the "Megaphone" coincides roughly with the R and S levels above mentioned for D1 As usual, watch carefully price action on shorter time frames, for validation or invalidation. Have a great trading day. All the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5
BTC - H4 - BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN !H4 : Following the failure to breakout former highs, the last candle triggered a Bearish Engulfing Pattern ! In addition the closing level was below the Mid Bollinger Band which is bearish. Indicators turned down. Little support now with the uptrend line which looks very fragile. Likely to see at least a retest of the 48000 area soon. Below focus remains on former double bottom low around the 45000 area On the upside, former MBB support becomes the first significant resistance to break ahead of the 51000-51600 Only a clear breakout of 51600 would neutralise the current ongoing bearish price action. Watch H1 and M15 for validation or invalidation of the expected bearish scenario
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4- RECOVERY ABOVE MID BOLLINGER BAND ?H4 : After three successive failures to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band, current ongoing candle is trying again to upside breakout MBB. Important to note that MBB coincides also roughly with the secondary downtrend line resistance. Therefore, a breakout of that area, on a closing period basis, would be the first positive signal for further upside in opening the door for higher levels towards 51530 (D1 pivot level) ahead of 51599 Kijun-Sen (H4). Nevertheless, the battle will not be finished yet because above KS there is still the clouds resistance zone to break and currently it is very thick !!! On the downside, a failure to close and hold above MBB and downtrend trend line resistance would trigger further selling pressure putting the focus on KS @ 49754, ahead of previous candle low @ 48000 Below nothing until 47000 and 47000-45000 looks very fragile. Watch carefully shorter time frames to get early validation or invalidation signal (s). Have a nice afternoon and have fun :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1/M15 - SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION...H1 : In a sideways, slightly downside price action. Clouds are acting as a resistance zone to break. 2 upside breakout failures so far. On the downside, a clouds support breakout would directly put the focus on the 47000 area (yesterday's former intraday low !), ahead of the double bottom area around 45000. M15 : Sideways price action. Watch clouds support zone. A downside breakout would put the focus on former low of 48050 ahead of 47000 as mentioned in H1
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC -D1/H4 - WARNING !D1 : Failure to recover above the pivot level @ 51530 triggered a retest of both Mid Bollinger Band and Strategic uptrend support line. This recent price action increases considerably the risk for a downside breakout of MBB, putting directly the focus on yesterday's low of 47000 ahead of the 45000 area.(KS) In order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action, BTC should recover and hold at least above the pivot point of 51530 (50% Fib ret @ 51599 !) H4 : Three successive failures to breakout both clouds resistance area and slighly higher the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 51599 is confirming this ongoing price action. Moreover, a secondary downtrend line took place which also, coincides with the Mid Bollinger Band @ 50940, which should be seen as the first resistance to break on the upside in order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk. Watch shorter time frames for intermediate validation or invalidation ! Have a great trading day and do not forget to like my analysis and add "Ironman8848" in your following list if you found my comments are bringing some added value to your trading decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1/M15 - CLOUDS SUPPORT UNDER ATTACK !H1 : Failure to upside breakout the clouds resistance area triggered an opposite move towards the Mid Bollinger Band with the last H1 closing roughly at the level of MBB. Ongoing H1 closing will be important as the bottom of the clouds support zone is currently under attack, with slighly below still the Kijun-Sen as the last support before the former lows at around 44845 (double bottom) M 15: Moving from an uptrend channel to a sideways channel which has been broken out on the downside ! Currently traded in the middle of the clouds. Upside or downside breakout of the clouds will give the tone for the ongoing price action To the North, watch Mid Bollinger Band as the first level to break ahead of the top of the clouds To the South, H1 Kijun-Sen @ 48334 ,ahead of former support congestion @ 44845
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H1/M15 - UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMATIONH1 : A double bottom formation took place yesterday; trigger level @ 49582 Trigger upside breakout occured but the failure to move above the current downtrend line resistance rejected the breakou attempt. In addition, this rebound nearly reached the 50% Fib ret @ 51599 (high was @ 51459) We then saw a pullback towards the trigger level again. Next H1 closing will show the direction and a failure to move and hold above the downtrend line resistance would likely trigger further selling pressure, calling for further downside towards the Mid Bollinger Band @ 48700 ahead of KS and former double bottom. On the upside, as above mentioned, first obstacle to overcome is the downtrend line resistance and then the clouds resistance area (50% Fib ret @ 51599) and 61.8% Fib @ 53193 Double bottom (if confirmed) gives a technical target @ 54319 M15 : Current base of the uptrend channel under attack ! Watch Kijun-Sen as support level indicator. Failure to hold above it, would put the focus on the clouds support zone (48000-47500) Have a nice trading day. Good luck :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1/H4 - STILL IN A STRATEGIC BULLISH MODE... BUT !D1 : Yesterday's strong selloff towards an intraday low of 44845, in breaking briefly the Kijun-Sen (45273) level and rebounded sharply above it, to finally close above the strategic uptrend support line which keep, for the time being, the bullish mode still intact. Today's ongoing price action is showing a recovery followup in progress; nevertheless, following the two former long black candles. In order to neutralise the downside risk in D1, BTC should recover and close today at least above 51530 which should be seen as a pivot level. Indeed, a move above that level or better above 51599 (Tenkan-Sen) would give additional trust for this recovery continuation. On the downside, key pivot level remains both Mid Bollinger Band and strategic uptrend support line. A daily closing (which should be confirmed !) below those levels would force a strategic reassessment view, in moving from BULLISH to BEARISH ! H4 : Looking at the last couple of price action candles we can see a yo-yo move, which was the following : 1) 3 long black candles 2) Piercing line (usually moderately bullish) 3) Bearish engulfing (usually bearish) 4) Bullish engulfing (usually bullish) 5) Long white candle with closing nearly at the top (bullish confirmation) ... but still below the current downtrend line resistance level !!! 6) Ongoing candle (wait for H4 next closing for validation or invalidation on the ongoing price action. Very important to note the important resistance zone between 51150 and 52860 which is respectively the 61.8 % and 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement and also the clouds area resistance. Therefore, I would strongly suggest to watch very carefully the price action over the coming period to check if the BTC will be able to upside breakout this important resistance zone. On the downside the first level to look at is the new uptrend support line which started from yesterday's low @ 44845. Monitor closely price action on shorter time frames !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC -H4 - THREE BLACK CANDLES AND... A PIERCING LINE...H4 : The recent selloff (55046-44845)triggered three long black candles) followed by a long white candle which is showing a piercing line pattern. The 38.2% Fib ret has already been filled @ 48729 which coincides roughly with the bottom of the clouds resistance zone. Higher next level to watch is the 50 % Fib ret @ 49935 (roughly the middle of the clouds) ahead of 51141 (61.8% Fib ret and top of the clouds resistance zone) Important to note that even if BTC recover towards 51141, this level would still be, below the current downtrend line resistance. So far, such kind of recovery should still be seen as a corrective move in an ongoing bear trend price action. In order, to neutralise the still existing downside risk, BTC should recover at least above 51600 (upside breakout of the clouds and also above Kijun-Sen)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - W1 - MIRROR EFFECT IN PROGRESS...W1 : A potential mirror effect triggered by an ongoing Bearish Engulfing pattern (to be confirmed in W1 closing !) is in progress. The 23.6 % Fib ret @ 45491 of the 3850-58354 rally has already been filled. In addition, there is also a RSI bearish divergence in progress which is not been confirmed yet. Next important support level to watch is the Tenkan-Sen @ 42093 which roughly coincides with the former high seen at the beginning of the year ! A failure to stay and hold above that level would be very negative for the BTC and confirm further downside in opening the door for 37533 (38.2% Fib ret) first ahead of Kijun-Sen, currently @ 34089. Watch shorter time frames to get validation or invalidation of this expected bearish scenario ONLY A MOVE BACK ABOVE 53056 (middle of the long white bullish candle) WOULD NEUTRALISE THE ONGOING BEARISH PRICE ACTION !!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - AT A CRUCIAL LEVEL !H4 : Last long black candle triggered a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN, with a closing level below MBB, TS and KS !!! Moreover, for the first time the closing level of this time frame was also below the tactical uptrend support line. In addition, technical indicators do not show recovery signal (s) yet. Watch H1 price action for validation or invalidation of this ongoing bearish price action calling for lower levels towards the clouds support first. Interesting to note that the former congestion support zone seen between Feb 10th and 17th (49326-46872) coincides with respectively the 61.8% and 78.6 % Fibonacci retracements. Watch very carefully price action around the clouds as a breakout of that area would likely trigger a strong sharp selloff !!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H1/M15 - TRADING IN THE ZONE - AT A GLANCEH1 : Failure to recover and and hold above the ongoing downtrend line resistance and MBB triggered further selling pressure ! Last closing candle was below former low closing levels and below MBB, TS and KS ! No signs of any reversals in all indicators Watch next H1 closing for validation or invalidation of the ongoing bearish price action M15 : Last M15 closing was below the clouds ! Ongoing rebound attempt, indicators are slightly turning up... Watch next M15 closing for validation or invalidation. In order to neutralise the downside risk, BTC should quickly recover above MBB, currently @ 53148 A failure to do it would confirm that recent pullback attempt was only a corrective move in a tactical ongoing bearish price action.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - D1 - LONG BLACK BEARISH CANDLE IN PROGRESS...D1 : The ongoing bearish tactical price action is currently triggering a long black bearish candle... In addition the first significant support is now, not far away, TS @ 52134 A failure to hold above this important support level, would likely trigger further downside move in a acceleration phase mode, putting the focus on the 23.6% Fib ret @ 51379 ahead of the psychological support level of 50000. As long as we stay above the Mid Bollinger Band and the strategic support trend line, recent and current price action should be seen as a consolidation & corrective move in a broad bullish trend. A breakout (confirmed) of 46500 would then switch from a BULLISH strategic view to a BEARISH one ! On the upside, in order to neutralise the ongoing bearish price action, BTC should quickly recover an hold above 55920, which was the yesterday's opening level of the former white bullish candle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC - H4 - WARNING LAST CLOSING AT THE LEVEL OF KS SUPPORT !H4 : Last long black candle with an intraH4 low @ 53461 triggered a closing which coincided with a breakout of both Tenkan-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band !! In addition the closing level coincided also with the level of the Kijun.Sen. Moreover, technical indicators are all still calling for further downside, Watch carefully H1, M15 and M5 which will validate or invalidate the ongoing bearish price action. Have a nice afternoon trading session. All the best and do not forget to like my post and add Ironman8848 to your following list... :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4