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Ironman8848

SP500 MF-MULTI TIME FRAMES-CRITICAL !MONTHLY (M1) January closing level @ 4'504.25 was above the Tenkan-Sen (4'418.75) which is in this time frame a first positive signal. The pivot level in this long term time horizon is @ 4'637,50 (middle level of the December candle) A monthly closing above this pivot level would trigger a piercing line which would be positive for the upcoming month having in mind a potential retest of the ATH. WEEKLY ( W1) The ongoing week price action is currently facing critical level (s) to breakout on the upside which are the following : 1) the ongoing downtrend resistance line 2) the Mid Bollinger Band A weekly closing above both of those levels would also give additional support for further upside A failure to do it would reopen the door for lower levels and a weekly closing below 4'500 would remember the potential double top ! DAILY (D1) Yesterday's closing level was above the Kijun-Sen which is also a first positive signal... but still below the Mid Bollinger Band and below the important daily clouds resistance area (4550-4645) In addition, looking at the recent (sharp rally) we can draw a new support trend line (very steep 74 degrees !! and after such kind of move we can not ruled out a mirror effect if the SP500 failed to hold above this steep support trend line RSI slightly above the 50 level, currently @ 51.04 4 HOURS (H4) Recent price action triggered a RISING WEDGE which has been, firstly broken and followed, currently by a pullback attempt in progress. Last couple of trading hours are showing some lack of momentum (small candles and small bodies !) which is adding some uncertainty and indecision about further development. Ongoing H4 candle closing level should be watch at very carefully as it might add more clues for the upcoming trading hours. 1 HOUR (H1) As previously mentioned in H4, successive small candles & small bodies are also adding growing uncertainty for the upcoming hours. Watch the Tenkan-Sen (already under attack !) ahead of the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen (4'520) A failure, on a hourly closing basis to hold above the Kijun-Sen would reopen the door for the H1 clouds support area (4'470-4'385), respectively roughly the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fib retracements of the last short term 4'265-4568.25 rally) I hope my analysis will give you an additional value to your trading activity and if it is the case, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please also add me on your following list. Many thanks in advance and take care Al the best Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Ironman8848
NQ1 100 MF - AT A CRITICAL LEVEL !MONTHLY (M1) After having reached an intra-month low @ 13'706 the Nasdaq recovered nicely to close on a monthly basis @ 14'905, slightly above the Tenkan-Sen which was in January @ 14'841.... BUT BELOW THE 15'000 AREA, which has been mentioned in my previous analysis ! 38.2% Fib ret filled @ 14'834 Indeed, a monthly and closing level above the 15'000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario calling for the FIRST STRATEGIC TARGET @ 12'894. Intermediate monthly support level @ 13'745 LONG TERM PICTURE REMAINS BEARISH ! WEEKLY (W1) Previous week price action triggered a DOJI pattern, which means uncertainty about further development; ongoing candle is showing, for the time being a white candle, which is : 1) Above the weekly clouds BUT BELOW : 1) The Tenkan-Sen 2) The Kijun-Sen 3) The Mid Bollinger Band All those 3 indicators are confirming the ongoing downward pressure, calling for lower levels ! Only a sustainable recovery above the cluster (15'180-15'240) on a weekly closing basis would neutralise the ongoing persisting downside risk. DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a long white bullish candle which closed @ 14'905, roughly at the level of the ongoing secondary downtrend resistance line. Today's price action, particularly it's closing level would be important as that could be the first warning signal of a validation or invalidation of the downtrend line breakout ! Nevertheless, I would remain cautious, having in mind, that even if today's closing level is above 14'800, there are, above, still a couple of obstacles to breakout such as : 1) The Mid Bollinger Band (15'112) 2) The Kijun-Sen (15'182) which corroborate with the view expressed on the weekly picture previously mentioned. On the downside, watch : 1) the ongoing uptrend support line (in green) which also coincides with the level of the Tenkan-Sen (@ 14'523) A daily closing level below 14'523 would reopen the door for lower levels 4 HOURS (H4) Currently slightly above the 4 hours clouds; recent and current price action in this time frame is showing a lack of follow through, coupled with a growing uncertainty about further upside (small candles, small bodies !) Watch the Tenkan-Sen (14'682) as the first significant support level in this 4 hours time frame ! A failure to hold above it on a H4 closing basis, would put the focus on the Mid Bollinger Band (14'473) ahead of the Kijun-Sen (14'398) and the H4 clouds bottom zone, currently @ 14'360) RSI is turning down, still on a rising channel 1 HOUR (H1) Currently above the clouds but below the Mid Bollinger Band and the Tenkan-Sen ! Watch the Kijun-Sen (@ 14'690) as the first support in this time frame. A failure to hold above this level on H1 closing basis, would open the door for the clouds support zone (14'400-14'270) Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-STRATEGICALLY WATCH THE WEEKLY CLOUDS !Firstly we are going to analyse what happened last week ! Indeed, the failure to recover, at least, above the middle level of the previous candle (long black candle) confirmed that, the " BEARS " keep their advantage over the " BULLS ", at least, for the time being ! In addition, a shy weekly closing @ 37'942 slightly above the weekly clouds bottom level (@ 37'360) is also showing a growing uncertainty and support fragility. So what next ? WEEKLY (W1) NO SECRET... WATCH THE CLOUDS ! Indeed, the weekly clouds area (37'360 - 42'570) should be seen as a very good indicator for the upcoming trading sessions, as a breakout of one of those levels would have the following implications : ON THE UPSIDE : A weekly closing above 42'570 (also the level of the Tenkan-Sen !) would confirm a bottom in place, calling for higher levels towards the psychological 50'000 area (Mid Bollinger Band (50'782) and Kijun-Sen or Base line (50'975) ON THE DOWNSIDE : A weekly closing below 37'360 (weekly clouds bottom zone) would open the door for, firstly the former low @ 32'950 ahead of the psychological 30'000 support level; do not forget that the STRATEGIC TECHNICAL TARGET REMAINS AT 28'600 WHICH SHOULD BE SEEN AS A VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL AS IT COULD BE : A ) The double top trigger level which if broken (on a weekly closing basis) would have great heavy bearish implication in opening the door for much lower levels !!! B) A potential double bottom, which if the BTC hold would give nice buying opportunity DAILY (D1) Ongoing downtrend still alive, caught between Tenkan-Sen (35'948) and Kijun-Sen (38'703) ! Watch the Lagging Line which is still, currently far below the daily clouds. Ongoing downside price action on the RSI (countertrend corrective move only, seen so far !) Watch both Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen levels to get more clues about further development on a Daily basis. A failure to stay and hold above the Tenkan-Sen would be the first warning signal, calling for lower levels, previously above mentioned. On the other hand, a clear breakout of the Kijun-Sen which is also, currently, roughly the level of the downtrend resistance line would add further support, calling for higher levels 4 HOURS (H4) The clouds... once again did its job perfectly well :-)in rejecting several upside breakout attempts !!! Currently testing the bottom of the clouds... watch carefully price action over the coming hours, as a failure to hold above the bottom of the clouds (36'595) would also be an additional warning signal, calling for lower levels. Important to take note that the Kijun-Sen (H4) is at 37'126 which should also be considered as a very important support level ! 1 HOUR (H1) Already below the clouds ! I repeat it again...watch the clouds ! Have a nice afternoon and take care Finally, if you like my analysis and if you find it add value on your trading strategies, please do not forget to like it and if you do not follow me yet, please add me on your following list too. Many thanks in advance. Kind regards Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
NQ1 100 MF-D1-BEARISH STRUCTURE !DAILY (D1) Despite a sharp recovery attempt seen yesterday towards an intraday high @ 14'639.75, the Nasdaq failed to recover firstly above : 1) the Tenkan-Sen @ 14'679 2) the secondary downtrend resistance line around 15'000 3) the Kijun-Sen 4) and last but not least above the Mid Bollinger Band @ 15367 and above the clouds resistance area (15676-16'052) Having in mind this overall broad bearish picture it is very difficult to find positive technical arguments which could support an opposite view, isnt'it ? In addition, looking at the bottom of this daily chart, you can see (in overlay) the level of the weekly clouds support area (13'950-12'760) which should be seen as the next very important support area with the FIRST STRATEGIC TECHNICAL TARGET @ 12'894, which is only... the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally which started in March 2020 @ 6628.75 towards the ATH reached last November @ 13'767.50 (performance of + 7'138.75 or + 107.69 %). Second strategic technical target is @ 11'698.25 (50% Fib ret) which is also the Kijun-Sen level on the monthly picture !!! 4 HOURS (H4) Ongoing persisting downward pressure in a sideways price action Below the cluster of TS, MBB and KS (14'230-14'280) and below the H4 clouds too ! 1 HOUR (H1) Currently facing the H1 clouds resistance area (very thin !) and also the Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen. Watch the clouds Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-D1/H4-PERSISTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE!Yesterday's recovery price action, triggered on a closing basis, a "SHOOTING STAR". Indeed, after a failure to recover above the bottom of the weekly clouds and above the daily Tenkan-Sen, the BTC closed @ 36'829. Such kind of price action is, once again confirming this ongoing persisting downward pressure which is clearly showing a mode of SELL ON RALLY and not yet a buy on dips, having in mind, of course, a STRATEGIC VIEW. Nevertheless, it is quite clear that in this strategic and persisting downtrend price action there are plenty of tactical countertrend trading opportunities which should be monitored accordingly in applying a strict Risk Reward approach !!! DAILY (D1) Yesterday's shooting star (similar scenario seen in Dec 24th and 27th) is weighing on the BTC which is likely to go lower in this daily time frame; first level to watch is @ 35000 ahead of former low @ 32'950 Strategic target remains @ 30'000 ahead of the VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL @ 28'600 (former low of June 2021 and also double top trigger level !!!) 4 HOURS (H4) Once again the clouds worked perfectly well in rejecting the upside breakout attempt (38'946) ! Since this rejection, the Bitcoin went down towards a low of 35'774, (50% Fib Ret filled @ 35'947) a couple of hours ago and is currently trying to recover, caught, actually between the Kijun-Sen (35' 948) and the Mid Bollinger Band (36'398). If the Mid Bollinger Band is broken on H4 closing basis, the next resistance level to watch is the Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line @ 37'240 ahead of the most important area to break, which is once again the CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA (37'650-38910); and last but not least the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently @ around 40'300. 1 HOUR (H1) Hourly clouds, for the time being hold and a downside breakout of the bottom of hourly clouds (@ 35'500) would open the door for lower levels (35'240 61.8% Fib ret ahead of 34'233 78.6% Fib ret extension). CONCLUSION . Monitor closely price action on the hourly chart and watch the clouds which will show you the direction :-) Have a nice trading day Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-W1-UNDER SELLING PRESSURE !Last weekly closing level @ 36'293, below the clouds and the ongoing weekly downtrend resistance line which is confirming this persisting selling ongoing selling pressure, still in a mode of "SELL ON RALLY" and not in a "Buy on dips" yet ! WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a long black candle which closed for the first time (since March 2020 !) below the clouds !! Such kind of implication should not be underestimated and should be clearly seen as an important warning confirmation signal, calling for further downside towards the psychological 30'000 support level ahead of the former low of 28'600 reached on June 2021. RSI indicator still converging to the downside ! Last but not least 28'600 is a VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL, as it is the MAJOR DOUBLE TOP TRIGGER LEVEL !!!; therefore a breakout of this level would accelerate the downtrend move towards lower levels...(former clouds congestion support 27'000-23'000). DAILY (D1) Yesterday's recovery attempt is currently neutralised by the today's price action which is showing a long black candle in progress (watch today's closing level) as there is a potential bullish divergence in progress which also should, of course, be confirmed, on a daily basis closing level. The Lagging line should also be watch at very carefully. RSI in oversold territory (bullish divergence, YES or NOT, confirmation will be given at the end of today's trading session !) 4 HOURS (H4) Currently in a sideways price action caught between 34'000 on the downside of the channel and 36'575 on the top of the channel. Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Tenkan-Sen. Watch also the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 36'045, in this H4 time frame which should always be seen as a good indicator and considered as a Barometer 1 HOUR (H1) Hourly clouds are working perfectly well in rejecting upside breakout attempts... so far. A sustainable breakout of the hourly clouds would be the first signal calling for further upside. A failure to do it, will just confirm the ongoing bearish and persisting price action calling for lower levels previously mentioned. Have a nice week All the best and take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-H4-SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION !After having reached a low of 34'000, the Bitcoin is attempting to recover a little bit, moving currently in a sideways direction. Levels to watch in this 4 hours time frame are the following : DOWNSIDE : Former low @ 34'000 IMPLICATION : A failure to hold and a breakout of 34'000 would put the focus for lower levels towards 31'250 (minor congestion support) ahead of the psychological 30'000 level and then 28'600 UPSIDE : 36'230 (Tenkan-Sen) IMPLICATION : A sustainable move above 36'230 (H4 closing basis) would open the door for 38'250 (Mid Bollinger Band & barometer in this time frame), ahead of the 38'750 area (Kijun-Sen) Nevertheless, even if such kind of recovery took place, the BITCOIN would still remain in a BEARISH MODE, as the most important obstacle, "THE CLOUDS" are still there (42'000) weighing globally heavily in the ongoing price action ! CONCLUSION : For the time being, any recovery should still be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY IN A BROAD BEARISH PICTURE and not as a strategic trend reversal yet ! As usual, watch and monitor closely shorter intraday time frames to be able to get early signals which would validate or invalidate the scenarios (implications) previously mentioned. Last but not least, if you like my analysis and if you find that it is valuable for you, please, do no forget to : 1) like it 2) add Ironman8848 on your following list Have a nice Sunday :-) Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
NQ1 100 MF-W1-EN ROUTE FOR 12'894 !Broad picture continue to be negative !!! WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a long black candle (very bearish, almost a "MARUBOZU") which roughly closed at its lowest level of the week ! Therefore, it is very important to look very carefully at the price action which took place prior to this long black candle. The week before, a perfect *DOJI" pattern has been triggered which was a first warning signal of growing uncertainty; in addition, the closing level of this doji was at the same point than the weekly Kijun-Sen, which also added increasing pressure for a potential downside breakout which occured this week. Last week price action should not be underestimated as the former uptrend channel has also been clearly broken, meaning a TREND REVERSAL CONFIRMED in this weekly time frame !!! STRATEGIC TARGET IS AT 12'894 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally, starting @ 6628.75-16767.50 in March 2020 towards the ATH reached in November 2021. Please also take note that this level coincides with the weekly clouds bottom level and therefore should be really considered as a KEY PIVOT SUPPORT LEVEL for further development. Watch also : 1) the Lagging line price action over the upcoming sessions; 2) the monthly clouds in overlay on this weekly chart which gives additional information about downside potential; 3) RSI price action which is still converging to the downside. DAILY (D1) Ongoing downside move, confirmed by : 1) the primary downtrend resistance line which started from ATH (16'767.50) towards the pullback attempt which failed @ 16'659.50; 2) the secondary ongoing downtrend resistance line, currently around 15400, which started from 16'659.50 Low reached so far last Friday intraday @ 14'408 with a daily&weekly closing roughly at the low of the day& week @ 16'426.50 which is not positive at all for the upcoming trading session (s) Interesting to have a look at the trading range (13'788-12'648) of the weekly clouds (on overlay) which should be seen as the next significant support zone. Clear RSI bearish convergence. 4 HOURS (H4) No trend reversal detected on this time frame yet, still converging to the downside. 1 HOUR (H 1) Potential upcoming RSI bullish divergence which is not validated yet ! Therefore, watch carefully,, at the next opening trading session, upcoming short term price action which would validate or invalidate a potential short term recovery which, for the time being is expected to be very limited and which should be seen as a short term corrective move. ONLY A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY ABOVE THE 15'000 AREA WOULD NEUTRALISE TEMPORARY THIS ONGOING DOWNSIDE MOVE PRICE ACTION. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD-D1/H4-NEGATIVE CONFIGURATION...DAILY (D1) The breakout of the psychological 40'000 support level triggered a downside acceleration which pushed sharply down the Bitcoin towards a low so far of 35'111 ! There is something very important to highlight : Last daily closing level (36'495) was below the weekly clouds that you can see on overlay !!! Such kind of price action should be seen as a very negative signal for the upcoming week !!! Indeed, broad picture becomes more and more bearish and in order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk, the Bitcoin should at least, on a daily basis closing level: 1) recover and hold above the tenkan-Sen, currently @ 39'468 which also, roughly coincides with the former low (39'558) reached on Jan 10th, 2021 and Eeen if this recovery occurs, that only will be the first step for a confirmation of a potential trend reversal 2) next important resistance being the Mid Bollinger band (@ 42'179) which as already mentioned several time, should be seen as "THE BAROMETER" 3) then the Kijun-Sen (@ 42'915) 4) and last but not least the DAILY CLOUDS RESISTANCE ZONE, currently between 49'320 and 55'480 GLOBALLY THE DAILY TIME FRAME REMAINS NEGATIVE CALLING FOR FURTHER DOWNSIDE TOWARDS THE 30'000 AREA FIRST AND THEN FOR A RETEST OF THE 28'600 AREA WHICH WAS THE STARTING POINT OF THE BIG RALLY (28'600-69'000) !!! 4 HOURS (H4) Persisting ongoing downside price action; indeed,RSI is still converging to the downside and there is no positive signal detected yet in this time frame. In this H4 time frame, recent and current price action is telling us that it is currently a SELL on rally mode and not a buy on dips yet, having in mind a STRATEGICALLY approach For tactical short term trading strategies (countertrend) I would strongly suggest to watch and monitor very closely, shorter time frames, which will allow you to act accordingly in protecting LONG TACTICAL EXPOSURE, in respecting strictly a disciplinated RISK MANAGEMENT, in putting in place trailing stop losses which is one of the GOLDEN RULES when you act countertrend !!!! Have a nice weekend and take care Kind regards from Switzerland :-) Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD-D1/H4- CRITICAL SUPPORT LEVEL !DAILY (D1) Following the expected sharp decline (see previous analysis !) towards a low so far of 37'684, the BITCOIN is now very close to an important support level, which is the 78,6 % Fibonacci extension retracement @ 37273 which also coincides with the bottom of the weekly clouds support area. Global picture remains heavy as technical indicators are still converging to the downside ! In addition the Lagging Line is also confirming further downside ! In order to neutralise this ongoing and persisting downside risk, the Bitcoin should at least recover and hold sustainably, on a daily closing basis, above the Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 41'070 and this only will be the first obstacle to cross-over, the next one being the Mid Bollinger Band (@42'850)(the BAROMETER!) to breakout DOWNSIDE RISK : A breakout confirmed on a weekly closing basis of the clouds bottom of the 37'000 would be seen as a very negative signal, calling for lower levels ; important to note the fragility of the 37'000-28'600 trading seen July 2021, when during the beginning of the rally, this zone gone through in roughly less than 1 week and therefore a mirror effect could also be seen on the opposite side. I would say that there is no real very significant support level except the psychological 30'000 level which is now replacing the previous one @ 40'000 4 HOURS (H4) In this 4 hours time frame, a first RSI bullish divergence, has been detected early this morning, which triggered a small upside move towards 38'680, but with a lack of momentum. More important, ongoing price action is showing a downside pullback in progress, towards the former intraday low, which may, potentially (wait for closing H4), trigger a second RSI bullish divergence. A small bullish divergence has already been detected on H1 which triggered a very small recovery ,which rather looks like a small corrective move recovery only... for the time being. CONCLUSION : ONGOING CRITICAL SITUATION...WATCH AND MONITOR VERY CLOSELY, SHORTER INTRADAY TIME FRAMES WHICH WILL ALLOW YOU TO DETECT EARLY SIGNAL (S) WHICH WILL VALIDATE OR INVALIDATE THE IMPLICATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN LONGER TIME FRAMES. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTCUSD-H4/H1-CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY 4 HOURS (H4) Currently in a corrective move triggered by a RSI bullish divergence detected on H1 (see comment below) Facing in this time frame the first significant resistance area to break : THE CLOUDS ! Interesting to note that the Kijun-Sen or Base line coincides exactly with the top of the clouds and this level (42'486) should be seen as the first important point to break on H4 closing basis. 1 HOUR (H1) As already previously mentioned, a RSI bullish divergence took place on this time frame which triggered this ongoing corrective recovery... for the time being ! Indeed, the H1 clouds resistance in test mode with its top level at also 42'500 (roughly the same than the KS in H4). Therefore, ongoing and upcoming price action should be watch at very carefully as there is also a double bottom formation in progress on H1 with its trigger level @ 42'685 which also coincides, currently with the ongoing downtrend resistance line. CONCLUSION : IMPLICATIONS : A failure to breakout the clouds on a H1 and H4 closing basis would put again the Bitcoin under a new selling pressure in putting the short term focus on the former low @ 41'145 ahead of the psychological 40'000 support level. A breakout confirmation (@ 42'685) (closing basis) of the potential double bottom formation in progress would open the door for a target @ 44'225 Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-W1-UNDER MAJOR DOUBLE TOP INFLUENCE !WEEKLY (W1) In the weekly time frame, the Bitcoin remains under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!! The ongoing downtrend price action is still intact as the BTC is below : 1) the ongoing downtrend resistance line 2) the Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line (@ 49'537) 3) the Kijun-Sen & Base line (@ 52'141) Note also the important barometer, which is the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 52'007 ! The last weekly closing level (@ 43'107) was slightly above the important weekly clouds support area between 40'860 and 37'360; interesting to also note that the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement extension level is @ 37'245. In order to neutralise and stabilize this ongoing downside price action, the Bitcoin should at least recover and hold on a weekly closing basis above the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently around the 45'000-45'500 area. A failure to do it would maintain the focus on the weekly clouds support zone (40'860-37'360) DAILY (D1) Currently in a sideways price action between 42'000 and 44'000. The daily Mid Bollinger Band currently @ 44'105 should be seen, on a daily closing basis, as the first significant level to break , ahead of the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line, currently @ 44'900 and last but not least the Kijun-Sen @ 45'828 which also was the former congestion bottom zone seen in December 2021. Finally, do not forget either, the daily clouds resistance are between 49'500 and 55'500 and only a clear breakout of the top of the clouds would confirm a STRATEGIC TREND REVERSAL ! CONCLUSION : Watch shorter time frames to get more clues. If you go TACTICALLY LONG,(countertrend exposure !), do not forget to monitor the Risk Reward ratio accordingly and with a strict stop losses discipline (trailing stop losses). Have a nice week. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-H4-ONGOING SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION4 HOURS (H4) The sideways price action continues inside the 4 hours clouds. As already mentioned yesterday, a breakout of the clouds (43'250 upside and 41'7870 on H4 closing basis), in one way or the other will open the door for the following targets : A) UPSIDE : R1 : 44350 R2 : 45'828 (VERY IMPORTANT !) R3 : 47'308 B) DOWNSIDE : S1 : 40'000 (Psychological) S2 : 39'550 (former low) S3 : 37'360 (weekly clouds bottom) S4 : 36'425 (50 % Fibonacci retracement 3'850-69'000 !) DAILY (D1) Two very important levels to look at on a daily closing level basis , which are : 42'000 and 45'828 as a clear breakout confirmed of one of those points will either : 1) confirm the ongoing downside move price action in opening the door for lower levels previously mentioned 2) give a strong trend reversal signal in breaking the KS...nevertheless, even if such kind of move should occur, do not forget the next obstacle (daily clouds) which still weigh on the Bitcoin in a strategical downtrend view !) ONLY A CLEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT OF THE CLOUDS WOULD FORCE A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO !!! WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing weekly closing level will also (maybe) give additional clues for the upcoming trading sessions ; indeed, on its weekly time frame, the Bitcoin is under the influence of a major double top formation with its trigger level... @ 28'700. Intermediate strong support area being the weekly clouds support zone between 41'000 and 37400 On this time frame, only a sustainable recovery above KS @ 49'150 would be seen as the first positive signal in this weekly picture. Watch also price action of the Chikou-Span which is currently between the TS and the KS and a cross UNDER THE TS or OVER THE KS would also add valuable indication for the upcoming trading sessions. Have a nice Sunday :-) Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-H4-UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS !4 HOURS (H4) In this 4 hours time frame, we can see a sideways price action which is currently roughly in the middle of the clouds area and around the cluster zone (42-625-43097). Such kind of price action is showing some growing uncertainty about further development and a breakout outside of the clouds will have the following implications : 1) On the upside : R1 :38.2% Fib ret @ 44'349, roughly former intraday high of Jan 13 (44'456) R2 : 50 % Fib ret @ 45'828 which should be seen as a key pivot level as it is also the level of the Kijun-Sen on a daily basis R3 : 61.8% Fib ret @ 47308 R4 : 78.6% Fib ret @ 49'415 Very interesting to note that the latter level also coincides with the bottom of the daily clouds resistance area (overlay on the top of the chart) 2) On the downside : S1 : 42'625 (TS) S2 : 41'780 S3 : 41'000 A breakout of 41'000 would put the focus again on the psychological 40'000 level ahead of former low @ 39'559 Daily (D1) Still in an ongoing broad trend price action. Below the Mid Bollinger Band (@ 44'718) and below the downtrend line resistance & KS (@45'828) A clear breakout (daily closing basis !) of both levels would force to a view reassessment of the expected ongoing downside move. On the downside a daily closing level below 42'000 would reopen the door for the former lows. Weekly (W1) b]As a gentle reminder the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the big 3850-69'000 rally is @ 36'425, also roughly the weekly clouds bottom zone ! CONCLUSION : Watch closely at shorter intraday time frames to detect and get early signal (s) which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned. Have a great weekend and have fun. All the best. Take care. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
SP500 MF-H4-IN ROUTE FOR LOWER LEVELS !4 HOURS (H4) Two successive failure attempts to breakout the clouds resistance triggered a reversal move from its recent top @ 4'739.50 towards a low so far of 4'606.75, filling in its way both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (4'572.75-4'739.50)@ 4'636.50 and the 78.6% Fib ret @ 4608.50 Global picture in this time frame does not look very encouraging as currently the SP 500 is below : 1) The clouds 2) The Mid Bollinger Band 3) The Tenkan-Sen 4) The Kijun-Sen and last but not least a Chikou-Span or Lagging line converging to the South as well... RSI is @ 37.66 Last candle which closed a few minutes ago triggered an hammer pattern, watch next ongoing candle to validate or invalidate this pattern on a H4 closing basis ! 1 HOUR (H1) Short term recovery only triggered by a long white candle which just closed below the Mid Bollinger band resistance level. Watch ongoing candle for getting more clues about short term picture. DAILY (D1) Under the influence of a major double top formation (trigger @ 4'500), coupled with a DOJI top and a bearish divergence !!! In an ongoing downtrend price action and below the MBB, TS and KS. Next support zone to watch at very carefully is the daily clouds support zone which is currently between 4'633 and 4'500 and which should be seen as a key pivot zone for further development. Indeed, a failure to : 1) stay and hold above the top of the clouds would be seen as the first warning signal, calling for further downside 2) A breakout of the bottom line of the former uptrend channel currently @ 4'566 (roughly the middle of the clouds too !) would also add more value for a downtrend continuation. A breakout of 4'500 on a daily closing basis would : 1) confirm the double top formation in progress ---> target 4'200 2) also confirm the breakout of the daily clouds bottom area WEEKLY : The ongoing weekly closing level, later on today, would add more indication for the next week... As a gentle reminder, the Mid Bollinger Band is currently @ 4'572 and a weekly closing below this level would be very negative for the upcoming week (s). Second important support to look at is the weekly Kijun-Sen, @ 4'516 should be seen as the LAST VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME !!! A failure to hold above 4'516 on a weekly closing basis would put the focus on 4'186.50, weekly clouds top and also 23.6% Fib retracement of the big rally from 2'174 towards the ATH @ 4'808.25 Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-D1/H4-ONGOING DOWNTREND...DAILY (D1) 1. Below the clouds 2. Below both Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band 3. Yesterday's candle triggered a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN but... slightly above the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line, currently @ 42'007 (Comme James Bond :-) Last, but not least the Chikou-Span or Lagging line is currently showing a sideways trading range, far away below the clouds and TS and KS. Watch on the downside the secondary downtrend line which, currently coincides roughly with the Tenkan-Sen above mentioned ahead of the former low reached a couple days ago @ 39'558.70 with; below the former primary downtrend resistance line which became the new support from the recent corrective recovery. On the upside, watch MBB (@ 45'077) as the first warning signal ahead of the most important one, which is the Kijun-Sen @ 45'828. Only a clear breakout of those two levels, on a daily closing basis, would neutralise the current ongoing downside move. RSI @ 37.43 below the 50 level 4 HOURS (H4) Former upside channel broken and 2 successve failure to breakout the clouds triggered a new selling pressure which pushed the BTCUSD down towards the bottom of the 4 hours clouds support zone. Currently below TS and MBB and still above the Kijun-Sen (@ 42'000) A clear breakout of the 42'000 on this time frame would be the first signal which, if confirmed by a daily closing below this level too, would corroborate the view, calling for further downside. RSI @ 47.25 Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get early signal (s) which would validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
SP500 MF-H4-RISING WEDGE IN PROGRESS !4 HOURS (H4) A RISING WEDGE is in progress on the 4 hours chart. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 4'718.25 filled early in the morning and since then the SP500 moved in a sideways price action in making a first DOJI before the last ongoing candle. The recent "corrective" rally failed to recover above the H4 clouds resistance which are slightly above the 61.8% Fib ret previously mentioned. IMPLICATIONS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (rising wedge breakout) : A) Validation of the rising wedge by a downside breakout of the 4'690 level on H4 closing basis Technical target @ 4'587 (roughly the former low and potentially a double bottom pattern !) B) Invalidation of the rising wedge by an upside breakout of the clouds resistance area which would open the door for higher levels towards the former ATH above 4'800 (potential major strategic double top !) Watch shorter intraday time frames to get more clues and validation or invalidation of what has been previously mentioned. Watch also the daily closing level as the Mid Bollinger Band is currently @ 4'707 and a failure to close above that level would also be an additional warning signal putting the focus again on lower level towards the D1 Kijun-Sen @ 4'665 Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-D1-SUCCESSIVE DOJIS=UNCERTAINTY DAILY (D1) 3 successive dojis in a row which is showing growing uncertainty about further development which is, for the time being still calling for further downside in this daily time frame. The ongoing candle is also, showing a doji pattern in progress (validation or invalidation will be given on today's closing basis) As already mentioned in my previous analysis, the last couple days price action should be seen as a tactical corrective move and not as a strategic trend reversal yet; indeed, on the daily picture the BTCUSD remains under : 1) the downtrend line resistance (46876) 2) the Mid Bollinger Band (46194) 3) the Kijun-Sen (45828) 4) the Tenkan-Sen (43572) Corrective move on RSI which is still in a downtrend ! UPSIDE : A sustainable move above 43'572 on a daily closing basis would be seen as the first positive signal for a potential continuation of a upside move towards the 3, 2 and 1 levels previously mentioned. In term of Fibonacci retracement, the first minor one, 23.6% is @ 42'518 ahead of the 38.2% @ 44'348; the 50% is @ 45'828 and this level should be seen as the most important one as it is also the level of the Kijun-Sen or Base line ! DOWNSIDE : The 41'500-39'500 trading range is very fragile and a failure to hold above 41'500 on a daily closing basis would be an additional warning signal calling for lower levels towards the former low @ 39'500 ahead of lower levels around 37'500 (weekly clouds bottom zone): Below 36'425 is the 50% Fib ret of the 3'850-69'000 rally. 4 HOURS (H4) A second RSI bullish divergence triggered the recent tactical corrective recovery from the low of 39'558.70 towards a high so far of 42'642 which should be seen as a pullback towards the former uptrend support line and still below the clouds too. Currently above TS and KS but just above the Mid Bollinger Band (@ 41'804) ! Watch carefully the 41'800 on H4 closing basis (short term perspective) : Above 41'800 : BULLISH Between 41'800-41'100 : NEUTRAL Below 41'100 : BEARISH CONCLUSION : Monitor closely intraday shorter time frames which will validate or invalidate the implications above mentioned in longer time frames. Have a nice trading day. Take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Bürki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-W1-WATCH THE CLOUDS !!!WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a long black candle which went down towards an intra-week low @ 40'517, testing the top of the weekly clouds area. This week ongoing price action will be very interesting as there is a strong support zone between 40'860 and 37'360 ! Global picture is showing a major double top formation in progress, coupled with a bearish divergence, in an ongoing bearish mode price action. Indeed, the BTCUSD, in this weekly time frame is below all important indicators (TS, MBB and KS) ! In order to neutralise the downside risk the BTCUSD should at least recover and hold above the Kijun-Sen, currently @ 49'148, on a weekly closing basis. On the downside, a failure to hold (on a weekly closing basis) above the clouds support zone would open the door for a retest of former low @ 28'600 reached on June 2021 and which is also, roughly the level of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (28'737) of the big rally which started @ 3'850 towards the ATH @ 69'000. DAILY (D1) Downtrend remains intact , below : 1) the clouds 2) the ongoing downtrend line 3) the Mid Bollinger Band 4) the Kijun-Sen (KS) 5) the Tenkan-Sen (TS) After the recent decline seen ove the last couple of days a Doji pattern, took place on Jan 8th, which triggered, so far, only a small recovery which should not be seen as a strategic trend reversal yet as it has not been confirmed by a RSI bullish divergence !! Indeed, such kind of price action is corrective only in a still ongoing bearish trend price action! Only a sustainable recovery above 44253 would neutralise this ongoing downside risk ! 4 HOURS (H4) - AT AN IMPORTANT PIVOT LEVEL AREA (41'760-42'150) In this 4 hours time frame, a RSI bullish divergence, triggered the recent rally from the low of 40'517 to an intraday high reached yesterday evening @ 42'796; such reversal price action has been short lived as a failure to cross over the Kijun-Sen, pushed down again the BTCUSD which is now again facing this important resistance (KS), currently @ 42'150. A 4 hours closing above 42'150 would be the first warning signal for a potential upside move towards the 4 hours downtrend line resistance, currently around the 44'000 area; nevertheless, on the other hand, on the downside, there is also an important support area around 41'850 and 41'760 and a failure to hold above 41'760 on a 4 hours closing basis would be the other warning, calling for further downside towards 41'200 ahead of the former lows around 40'500 CONCLUSION : On short term, watch the following levels, on a 4 hours closing basis : Above 42'150 (short term bullish) Between 42'150-41'760 (short term neutral) Below 41'760 (short term bearish) Have a nice week. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD-D1/W1- WATCH THE CLOUDS !Ongoing selling pressure pushed the BTCUSD down towards the 41'000 area. DAILY (D1) Below the clouds and all Ichimoku lines ! Also below the Mid Bollinger. RSI is still converging to the downside. Next support level is the psychological 40'000 ahead of 39'575 former low of October where daily clouds rejected further downside, but this time the story is different as we are already far away below the clouds and therefore it is likely to see more downside in the coming sessions. WEEKLY (W1) Clear ongoing downtrend, currently testing the weekly clouds support with its bottom levels around 37'000 which also coincides with the Fibonacci extension retracement of 78.6% @ 37'324. For the time being the Chkou-span has only crossed under the KIjun-Sen and is still above the Tenkan-Sen and the clouds too. Warning!! if the Chikou-Span cross under the clouds.. that would confirm further decline probably towards the 30'000-28'700 !!! Have nice trading day ! Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
US10Y-D1-NICE MOVE...BUT !First 2022 trading day, triggered, yesterday a nice move; indeed, we say, on a daily basis, three important things : 1) breakout of the daily clouds resistance 2) Crossover of the Tenkan-Sen 3) Chikou-Span crossover of cluster Still one resistance level to break which is the ongoing downtrend line resistance and the former highs, respectively @ 1.7050% and 1.7740% In addition, on a weekly basis, the ongoing downtrend channel is still intact (next closing will, maybe, add more clues about further development); Watch shorter time frames as on H4, a failure to hold above 1.56%-1.55% would be the first warning signal of a potential reversal ! Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-D1-BREAKOUT IMPLICATIONS !As you can see on the Daily chart, the BTCUSD is traded in a sideways price action caught between 45'500 on the downside and 52'000 on the upside. Inside this trading range, the middle of the sideways channel @ 48'800 should be seen as the barometer (Bullish above and bearish below on a daily closing basis, of course !) Watch also RSI price action which is for the time being below the 50 area, @ 39.61 A breakout confirmed on a daily closing basis would have the following implications : ON THE DOWNSIDE : Next support to look at is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 44'094 of the 28'700-69'000 rally ahead of the 78.6% Fib ret @ 37'324 ON THE UPSIDE : As the 52'000 resistance areea is also roughly the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 69'000-41'967 downside move, the next level to look at is @ 55'483 (50 % Fib ret & top of the daily clouds) ahead of 58'673 (61.8 % Fib ret) Looking briefly to the weekly picture, we can also see that the clouds support area is currently between 44'000 and 37'000 which coincides with the support zones previously mentioned in the daily analysis (corroboration). CONCLUSION : Watch the clouds on each time frames; only weekly and monthly pictures are showing the BTCUSD still above the clouds. On all shorter time frames the BTCUSD is below... In screening very carefully the intraday time frames you will be able to detect early (tactical short term reversal) which could provide, "very short term countertrend trading opportunities", which should be, if taken, protected accordingly in respecting a strict Risk Reward ratio approach ! Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848